12月14日消息，近日，中国台湾电路板协会（TPCA）与工研院产科所发布"2025中国大陆PCB 产业动 态观测"、"2025日韩PCB 产业观测"，分析东亚PCB 生产地在AI时代下的产业变化，并拓展新产地。 日本为全球第3大PCB 生产地，TPCA 表示，日资企业2024年产值约115.3亿美元，全球市占率约 14.4%，预估2025年日本PCB 产业有望转为正增长，海内外总产值预估将提升至118.2亿美元，2026年更 可达123.5亿美元。 此外，TPCA 指出，日本不仅依靠企业投资推动产能提升，更配合政府近年的AI 与半导体国家战略， 透过制度化的补助、专款制度与供应链安全战略，强化在先进封装与高阶PCB 生态系的整体竞争力。 韩国在全球PCB 市场中位居第四，TPCA 表示，韩资企业2024年海内外总产值约78.6亿美元，市占率 9.8%。韩国产业在2025年至2026年将呈现稳定温和成长，预估海内外总产值分别可达79.4亿美元与81.6 亿美元。 在海外布局方面，TPCA 指出，韩商PCB 因三星供应链已耕耘越南多年，载板则以马来西亚为近年主要 扩产基地，积极提升BT 载板产能以因应后续內存市场 ...

格隆汇12月10日丨兴森科技(002436.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司BT载板整体产能规模5万平米/月，原3.5 万平/月产能已满产，新扩1.5万平/月产能处于量产爬坡阶段；ABF载板目前处于小批量生产阶段。 ...

（记者 胡玲） 兴森科技（002436.SZ）12月10日在投资者互动平台表示，公司BT载板整体产能规模5万平米/月，原3.5 万平/月产能已满产，新扩1.5万平/月产能处于量产爬坡阶段；ABF载板目前处于小批量生产阶段。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问公司规模量产的是BT载板？还是ABF载板？以哪 种为主？ ...

Core Insights - The PCB supply chain is facing significant shortages of upstream materials, particularly affecting high-end substrates like ABF and BT boards, with expectations that shortages will persist for another year [1] - The demand for PCBs is expected to remain strong over the next 2-3 years, with a peak in the fourth quarter of the current year, despite the ongoing material shortages [1][3] - The shortage is attributed to a surge in demand from the recovering global electronics industry and highlights the vulnerabilities in the supply chain [1][4] Material Shortages - Key materials such as T-Glass, quartz cloth, and low CTE fiberglass are in short supply, impacting the production of high-end PCBs [1] - The global demand for HVLP4-grade copper foil, essential for AI servers, is projected to exceed supply, with a current monthly production capacity of only 700 tons against a demand of 850 tons [3][4] - The supply of fiberglass materials is also constrained, with a projected demand of 18.5 million meters by 2026, while current capacity is only 10 million meters, resulting in a shortage of over 50% [3] Market Dynamics - The AI server market is driving a significant increase in PCB prices, with standard server PCBs priced between $3,000 and $15,000, while AI training server PCBs can exceed $200,000 [3] - Major cloud service providers are expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with a forecasted total exceeding $420 billion by 2025, marking a 61% increase from previous years [3] Financial Performance - Leading PCB manufacturers like Huadian and Weiergao reported substantial revenue growth in Q3 2025, with Huadian achieving a revenue of 5.019 billion yuan, up 39.92%, and a net profit increase of 46.25% [6] - The PCB industry is entering a new growth cycle, with a projected market value of $73.565 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase [7] Capacity Expansion - At least 11 PCB companies have announced expansion plans to increase high-end production capacity, with significant investments planned [7][8] - Companies like Jingwang Electronics and Shengyi Technology are investing heavily in new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end PCBs [8] Strategic Considerations - While leading companies are expanding capacity, there is a risk of overcapacity if AI demand slows down, particularly if growth rates drop below 15% post-2026 [9][10] - Smaller manufacturers are advised to focus on niche markets and technological differentiation to avoid direct competition with larger firms [9][10]

Core Insights - The PCB supply chain is facing significant shortages of upstream materials, particularly affecting high-end substrates like ABF and BT boards, with expectations of shortages lasting for another year [2] - The demand for PCBs is projected to remain strong over the next 2-3 years, with a peak expected in Q4, despite the ongoing material shortages [2][3] - The shortage is attributed to a surge in demand from the recovering global electronics industry and the vulnerabilities in the supply chain [2][5] Industry Overview - The global demand for AI servers is driving a substantial increase in capital expenditures among major cloud service providers, with a forecasted total exceeding $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% increase from previous years [3][4] - The price of PCBs for AI training servers can exceed $200,000, significantly higher than traditional server PCBs, which range from $3,000 to $15,000 [3][4] - The supply shortage is affecting the entire PCB industry, particularly in core materials like copper foil, which has a projected demand of 850 tons per month by 2025 against a current production capacity of only 700 tons [4][5] Financial Performance - Leading PCB manufacturers are experiencing substantial revenue growth, with companies like Huadian achieving a 39.92% increase in revenue to 5.019 billion yuan and a 46.25% rise in net profit to 1.035 billion yuan in Q3 [6] - Willgo reported a 41.33% increase in revenue to 407 million yuan and a remarkable 175.75% increase in net profit [6] Market Trends - The global PCB market is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with a projected market value of $73.565 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year growth [7] - By 2029, the global PCB market value is anticipated to reach $94.661 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 [7] Capacity Expansion - At least 11 PCB companies have announced expansion plans, with significant investments aimed at increasing high-end production capacity to meet rising demand [9] - Companies like Jingwang Electronics and Shengyi Technology are investing heavily in expanding their production capabilities, with plans to invest 5 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan, respectively [9] Strategic Insights - While leading companies are expanding capacity to capture AI market opportunities, there is a risk of overcapacity if demand growth slows down post-2026 [10] - Smaller manufacturers are advised to focus on niche markets and technological differentiation to avoid direct competition with larger firms and mitigate risks associated with overcapacity [10][11]

Group 1 - Strong demand for AI is driving price increases in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly affecting passive components and copper foil substrates [1] - The PCB supply chain has experienced a supply-demand imbalance since the second half of this year, exacerbated by NVIDIA's significant resource absorption [1] - High demand for T-Glass fiberglass is leading to severe shortages in Q4, while copper foil substrates are expected to see a supply gap due to necessary upgrades in signal integrity standards [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that prices for non-NVIDIA ABF substrates will increase by 5% to 10% each quarter from Q4 2023 to Q4 2026, with BT substrates also experiencing significant price hikes [1] - The passive component industry may face tightening supply conditions by 2026, prompting major Taiwanese passive component manufacturers like Yageo to raise tantalum capacitor prices starting in November [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported significant profit growth in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year revenue increase of 32.42% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.47%. The net profit for Q3 reached 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 300.88% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 427.52% [4] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.373 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 23.48%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.31 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 516.08% [4] - The company has adjusted its profit expectations for 2025-2027, forecasting net profits of 2.51 billion yuan, 5.30 billion yuan, and 7.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.15, 0.31, and 0.43 yuan [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.36%, up 7.54 percentage points year-over-year and 2.83 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The net profit margin was 2.36%, an increase of 10.43 percentage points year-over-year and 5.08 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [4] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 7.463 billion yuan in 2025, 9.004 billion yuan in 2026, and 11.072 billion yuan in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 28.3%, 20.6%, and 23.0% respectively [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 251 million yuan, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years, reaching 530 million yuan in 2026 and 725 million yuan in 2027 [7] Business Segment Insights - The company’s PCB business is experiencing accelerated growth in high-end products, particularly benefiting from strategic customer relationships in the high-end mobile phone sector and increased shipments of high-end optical module substrates [5] - The CSP packaging substrate business has seen a significant increase in profitability due to the recovery in the storage chip industry and rising demand from major storage clients, with production capacity utilization improving each quarter [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies mentioned, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shortage of upstream materials affecting high-end substrates, with expectations that the supply issues will persist for about a year [1]. - The demand for high-end substrates is projected to grow alongside the increasing need for computing power driven by AI developments, creating a favorable investment landscape [3]. - Companies like Xingsen Technology are focusing on enhancing their IC packaging substrate business, achieving a revenue increase of 36.04% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Upstream Material Shortage - The shortage of materials such as T-Glass and quartz fabric is expected to impact high-end substrate shipments, with a peak shortage anticipated in the next six months [1]. - The chairman of Xinxing noted that the supply gap for high-end copper-clad laminates (CCL) is challenging, but improvements are expected starting from Q3 2026 [1]. Company Performance - Xingsen Technology's IC packaging substrate business generated revenue of 722 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a focus on high-value products and expansion into the automotive market [2]. - The company is also seeing a significant increase in sample orders for FCBGA substrates, indicating potential for mass production opportunities [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests continued attention to investment opportunities in companies such as Xingsen Technology, Shennan Circuit, Shengyi Technology, and Nanya New Materials due to the expected growth in high-end substrate demand and domestic substitution potential [3].

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Clad Laminate Price Trends Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the copper clad laminate (CCL) industry, focusing on price trends and supply chain dynamics related to raw materials such as copper foil and fiberglass cloth [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Increases**: CCL prices have been rising continuously, with a notable increase in LME copper prices by over 16% from the beginning to the end of September, prompting manufacturers to implement price hikes of 5%-10% [1][2]. 2. **Supply Constraints**: The primary driver of price increases is the tight supply of materials, particularly for mid to low-end materials, while high-end materials have also seen slight price increases [1][3]. 3. **High Demand for High-End CCL**: There is a significant surge in demand for high-end CCL, with leading manufacturers focusing on developing advanced materials. However, production speeds are slow, leading to supply shortages [1][5]. 4. **Impact of Raw Material Supply**: A decrease in the supply of fiberglass cloth and standard copper foil has significantly impacted the CCL market, making mid to low-end CCL more scarce and driving up processing fees [1][6]. 5. **PCB Manufacturers' Strategies**: PCB manufacturers are keen to lock in prices quickly to mitigate future raw material cost increases. They prefer established CCL suppliers to ensure product quality and delivery stability, which supports strong demand for leading CCL manufacturers [1][7]. 6. **Future Price Trends**: Future price increases will depend on average copper prices and supply-demand dynamics. If average copper prices reach 11,000 yuan or higher in October or November, a third wave of price increases may occur [1][8]. 7. **AI Material Development**: The demand for AI materials is driving the need for high-quality CCL, with major companies using advanced materials like Ma 8 and Ma 9. Domestic companies are also adapting to these trends [1][9]. 8. **BT Substrate Price Increases**: The price of BT substrates has risen due to high demand for Low-CT fiberglass cloth, which has been largely acquired by major clients like NVIDIA, leading to supply shortages [1][11]. 9. **Future Trends in PCB Industry**: The PCB industry is expected to trend towards narrower and high-density interconnect (HDI) designs, driven by advancements in domestic GPU technology and increasing performance requirements [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring raw material prices and supply conditions, as fluctuations can significantly impact the CCL market and related industries [1][8]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading companies like Shengyi Technology and Nanya Technology gaining market share due to their established reputations and product quality [1][9]. - The potential for panic buying in the market, as seen with the recent DDR4 production halts by major manufacturers, could lead to temporary price spikes but is not expected to last indefinitely [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities highlights that Shenzhen South Circuit has effectively seized three major growth opportunities: AI computing power upgrades, recovery in the storage market, and the electrification and intelligence of automobiles, resulting in significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year [1] Financial Performance - Revenue reached 10.45 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 26% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.36 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 38% [1] Market Opportunities - There is a rapid increase in global demand for AI-related products such as GPU/ASIC, servers, 800G switches, and optical modules [1] - The storage market is showing signs of recovery, which is beneficial for the company [1] Strategic Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading domestic PCB manufacturer, a major player in BT substrates, and a frontrunner in ABF substrates [1] - The company is actively promoting the construction of relevant production capacity projects and technological research and development layouts [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the industrial upgrade opportunities brought about by the current wave of AI innovation [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]