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中金2026年展望 | 传媒:政策赋能新周期,AI、出海与IP化共驱发展(要点版)
中金点睛· 2025-11-08 01:07
Group 1: Industry Trends - Trend 1: A new content cycle is anticipated under a policy-friendly environment, with the gaming industry demonstrating the potential for content release during such periods. The gradual normalization of game license issuance and the stabilization of the drama industry supply side are expected to enhance content richness and contribute to the resilience of gaming companies. 2026 is projected to be a critical observation window for content innovation and mechanism optimization [3][5][6]. - Trend 2: The development of AI is entering a new stage, with significant breakthroughs in various sectors by 2025. AI applications in film and television, gaming, advertising, and social communities are expected to enhance efficiency and drive revenue growth. By 2026, AI-native penetration and highly automated content generation are anticipated to attract more users and optimize monetization [3][8]. - Trend 3: The trend of "cultural export" is continuing in the gaming, online literature, and short drama sectors. The focus has shifted from indiscriminate content output to high-quality content with cultural core, tailored to local markets. This shift is expected to enhance the global presence of Chinese content and create a positive feedback loop between domestic and international markets [3][10]. - Trend 4: Upgraded demand is catalyzing a revaluation of IP value, with content companies increasingly focusing on IP strategies. The maturation of the domestic IP industry chain is expected to lead to a systematic revaluation of IP value, with industrialization of content production and diversification of revenue structures becoming key trends [3][12]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company remains optimistic about leading firms consolidating their industry positions and enhancing their capabilities through mergers and acquisitions. The digital media, online gaming, and social community sectors are viewed as having superior business models, benefiting from the new content cycle, AI efficiency improvements, and potential overseas advantages [4]. - In the advertising sector, attention is directed towards opportunities for acquiring quality media shares and enhancing operational efficiency through AI. The film and cinema industry is advised to focus on the marginal changes brought by broadcasting regulations and explore new models and integration opportunities [4]. - The publishing industry faces challenges from declining enrollment numbers, with a focus on high-dividend value companies in key provinces. The cable broadcasting sector is advised to monitor the operational capabilities of leading companies in value-added services and potential development opportunities under supportive policies [4].