1-10月份，全国钢材产量121759万吨，同比增长4.7%。而10月份钢材产量同比下降0.9%、环比下降 4.5%，至11864万吨；据此测算，10月份钢材日均产量383万吨，环比下降7.6%。 1-10月份，全国生铁产量71137万吨，同比下降1.8%。10月份生铁产量为6555万吨，这是2024年3月份以 来最低单月水平，同环比分别下降7.9%和0.8%，环比连续第五月下降；当月生铁日均产量211万吨，环 比下降4.0%。 1-10月份，全国粗钢产量81787万吨，同比下降3.9%。10月份粗钢产量为7200万吨，同样是2024年3月份 以来最低单月水平，同环比分别下降12.1%和2.0%，环比连续第五月下降；10月份粗钢日均产量232万 吨，环比下降5.2%。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-10月份，全国焦炭和钢材产量同比继续增长，粗钢和生铁产量则呈降。 具体来看： 1-10月份，全国焦炭产量41905万吨，同比增长3.3%。10月份焦炭产量为4190万吨，同比增长1.5%，但 环比下降1.6%，为连续第二月环比下降；据此测算，10月份焦炭日均产量135万吨，环比下降4.7%。 ...

10月份，规模以上工业（以下简称规上工业）原煤生产保持较高水平，原油、天然气生产稳步增长，电力生产增速明显提高。 一、原煤、原油和天然气生产及相关情况 原煤生产保持较高水平。10月份，规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%；日均产量1312万吨。 1—10月份，规上工业原煤产量39.7亿吨，同比增长1.5%。 原油生产保持增长。10月份，规上工业原油产量1800万吨，同比增长1.3%，增速比9月份放缓2.8个百分点；日均产量58.1万吨。 1—10月份，规上工业原油产量18064万吨，同比增长1.7%。 原油加工平稳增长。10月份，规上工业原油加工量6343万吨，同比增长6.4%；日均加工204.6万吨。 1—10月份，规上工业原油加工量61424万吨，同比增长4.0%。 天然气生产增速放缓。10月份，规上工业天然气产量221亿立方米，同比增长5.9%，增速比9月份放缓3.5个百分点；日均产量7.1亿立方米。 1—10月份，规上工业天然气产量2170亿立方米，同比增长6.3%。 附注 1.指标解释 日均产品产量：是以当月公布的规模以上工业企业总产量除以该月日历天数计算得到。 2.统计范围 报告中的产量数 ...

Group 1: Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Production - In October, the industrial raw coal production remained at a high level with an output of 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and an average daily output of 13.12 million tons [1] - From January to October, the industrial raw coal output reached 3.97 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] - The industrial crude oil production in October was 18 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, with a daily average output of 581,000 tons [2] - The industrial natural gas production in October was 22.1 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, although the growth rate slowed by 3.5 percentage points compared to September [3][4] Group 2: Oil Processing and Natural Gas Production - The industrial crude oil processing volume in October was 63.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with a daily average processing of 2.046 million tons [3] - From January to October, the industrial crude oil processing volume totaled 614.24 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [3] - The total industrial natural gas output from January to October was 217 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [4] Group 3: Electricity Production - The industrial electricity production in October reached 800.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with a daily average generation of 25.81 billion kilowatt-hours [5] - From January to October, the total industrial electricity production was 8,062.5 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [5] - In October, the industrial thermal power generation turned from decline to growth with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while hydroelectric power grew by 28.2%, nuclear power increased by 4.2%, wind power saw a decline of 11.9%, and solar power grew by 5.9% [5]

#数据 1-10月城镇固定资产投资同比降幅为2020年6月以来最大。 https://t.co/Kd7iBPGYK6外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国10月规模以上工业增加值同比增4.9%，预期5.5%；10月社会消费品零售总额同比增2.9%，预期2.7%；10月城镇调查失业率5.1%，预期5.2%；1-10月城镇固定资产投资同比-1.7%，预期-0.8%。 https://t.co/GWEjKDuZ6E ...

Germany's industrial production rose less than expected in September, underscoring how its economy is only slowly emerging from a multi-year slump https://t.co/iKMIiseq18 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, particularly the industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales sectors, as well as GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: China's Q3 GDP growth moderated to 4.8% year-on-year (yoy) from 5.2% in Q2, slightly above market consensus of 4.7% but in line with forecasts. Sequentially, GDP growth showed a slight acceleration to 1.1% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) non-annualized in Q3 from 1.0% in Q2 [1][10][20]. 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production (IP) growth rose significantly to 6.5% yoy in September, exceeding expectations, driven by stronger exports and increased auto output. Sequentially, IP gained 1.4% month-over-month (mom) non-annualized in September [3][13][20]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth remained depressed at -0.5% year-to-date (ytd) yoy in September, with a notable single-month decline of -6.7% yoy. This was attributed to ongoing "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged downturn in the property sector [8][14][20]. 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% yoy in September from 3.4% in August, impacted by weaker offline sales and the fading effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in program. Online sales showed slight improvement [9][15][20]. 5. **Services Sector**: The Services Industry Output Index remained stable at 5.6% yoy in September, indicating resilience in the services sector despite challenges in retail sales [16][20]. 6. **Property Market**: The property market continued to show weakness, with significant year-on-year declines in new home starts (-14.4%) and property sales (-10.5% in volume) [11][18][20]. 7. **Unemployment Rates**: The nationwide unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.2% in September from 5.3% in August, although youth unemployment remains a concern at 18.9% for the 16-24 age group [19][20]. Adjustments to Economic Forecasts - Full-year real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 4.9% and 4.3%, respectively, reflecting adjustments based on Q3 GDP outcomes and historical data revisions. The growth target of "around 5%" for the year remains on track despite US-China tensions [1][20][37]. Additional Important Insights - The effectiveness of existing easing measures is diminishing, necessitating targeted easing to ensure stable growth and employment in the coming quarters [20]. - The majority of recent easing measures' growth impulses are expected to materialize in late 2025 or early 2026 [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its outlook.

#数据 中国第三季度GDP同比增速为四个季度以来最低，社会消费品零售销售同比增幅为去年11月以来最低。1-9月固定资产投资累计同比增速为超过5年来首次转负。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国第三季度GDP年率4.8%，前值5.2%。9月规模以上工业增加值同比增6.5%，预期5.0%；9月社会消费品零售总额同比增3.0%，预期3.0%；9月城镇调查失业率5.2%，预期5.3%；1-9月城镇固定资产投资同比增-0.5%，预期0.1%。 https://t.co/RdrokL5NmU ...

Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated a cautious approach to rate cuts, likely in quarter-point steps, as the Fed assesses economic conditions [2][8] - Waller noted the labor market is "not doing great" with negative job growth, suggesting the U.S. is not at maximum employment, but found no evidence of a wage-price spiral [2][8] - He mentioned that tariff effects on inflation are one-time changes, with a 40% pass-through observed in some goods prices [2] Mexico's Industrial Production - Mexico's industrial production fell by 0.3% month-over-month in August, missing the estimated 0.4% increase, following a 1.2% decline in July [3] - Year-over-year, industrial production decreased by 3.6%, worse than the estimated 2.0% decline and the previous 2.7% drop [3] - Manufacturing production also fell by 3.1% year-over-year, exceeding the estimated decrease of 0.8% [3] Corporate Developments - JPMorgan placed Colgate-Palmolive (CL) on a negative catalyst watch, expressing concerns over its future performance and cutting its price target for Colgate-Palmolive India [4][8] - Citi issued a bullish call on Oracle (ORCL), raising its price target from $395 to $415, projecting nearly 40% upside due to the company's expanding customer base and expectations for AI project profitability [4][8] International Engagements - China's Vice Premier He Lifeng met with leaders from major international firms, including Abbott Laboratories (ABT), SK Group, and Prudential Plc, to encourage investment and cooperation in China [5][8] Other International Economic News - Polish policymaker Cezary Kochalski suggested a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts, tempering traders' expectations [6] - In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is facing pressure to expand the fiscal buffer amidst economic challenges [6]

German industrial production fell the most since early 2022, evidence of the struggle by Europe’s biggest economy to shake off a multi-year slump https://t.co/XT8H0QP8Ta ...

Manufacturing & Industrial Base - US technological superiority is not sufficient for winning conflicts; industrial production has a deterrence factor and mass matters [1] - The US systematically outsourced key-scaled manufacturing, eroding skill sets, and now lags in mass manufacturing at scale [1] - The US needs to address the skilled labor replacement problem in manufacturing, as many skilled workers are nearing retirement [2] - China has strategically controlled rare earths and magnet-making technology, creating supply chain bottlenecks [3] - China's manufacturing autonomy is estimated to be 20 years ahead of the US due to a lack of pressure to put software engineering automation in manufacturing [3] Defense & National Security - US war games show that the US would run out of key high-end munitions in about 8 days, which is not a deterrence factor [1] - Russia is currently outproducing NATO on 155 munitions, highlighting the need for increased production capacity [4] - The US lacks a strategic plan for preserving supply in a catastrophic situation [4] - China has invested in technologies that push back the US and cripple the US war apparatus, such as space-based sensing and carrier killer missiles [20][21] - The US military is better at infusing technology into war fighting, but faces challenges in producing enough at scale and affording it [4] Policy & Economic Strategies - The US government should create large offtake agreements to support domestic manufacturing and create a commercial market [5] - The US needs to identify key supply chain constraints and implement strategies such as stockpiling and regulatory relaxation [5] - The US should leverage its capital market system to create incentives for industries to grow, such as low-cost loans and risk-sharing with banks [5][9] - China's success is due to subsidizing capex, energy, and export subsidies, creating an uneven playing field [7] - The US should counteract unfair practices from other countries and incentivize growth through targeted policies and protectionism [13]