The FOMC will not see the unemployment rates for October or November before the December 9-10 FOMC meeting. This lowers the probability of a December rate cut. Exhibit 1: JOLTS data will be released before the FOMC meeting and will give some indication of the direction of payrolls November 19, 2025 06:21 PM GMT Payrolls ch, 000s Net payroll change implied by JOLTs, 000s 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 US Economics | North America Source: BLS and Morgan Stanley Research M Idea New schedule for empl ...

Core Points - President Donald Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, threatening to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent if they do not act quickly [2][6] - Trump's criticism of the Fed's current interest rate policy reflects his desire to stimulate the economy by reducing borrowing costs and the interest on national debt [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's independence is at risk if Trump follows through on his threats, which could lead to significant implications for financial markets and the economy [3][7] Economic Implications - Trump argues that lower interest rates would help reduce mortgage rates and boost economic activity, although some experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of such cuts [4][6] - The Fed has maintained a flat rate throughout the year, only recently cutting it by 0.25 percentage points in its last two meetings [3] - There is a division among Fed officials regarding further rate cuts, with some concerned about inflation driven by Trump's tariffs [4][8] Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve was established as an independent entity to resist political pressures that could lead to unnecessary rate cuts, which might provide short-term economic boosts but could also trigger inflation [8] - Powell's term as Fed Chair is set to end in May, and he does not report to Trump or Bessent, highlighting the central bank's autonomy [5][6]

A month ago, stock market investors and bond traders thought nearly in unison that interest rates would be cut again at the Federal Reserve's final meeting this year. Alas, such fiery hopes have now turned into embers. Yet the stock market mostly shrugged this off. Wednesday's midafternoon release of the Fed's minutes from its Oct. 29 policy confirmed what perhaps… BREAKING: Nvidia Drives Tech Futures Higher Get instant access to exclusive stock lists, expert market analysis and powerful tools with 2 months ...

The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal mounting disagreement about whether another interest rate cut makes sense in December. Powell's team lowered rates by a quarter-point in late October to 3.75%-4%, but the minutes show deep divisions on what comes next. ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the necessity and timing of future interest rate cuts, particularly in light of a slowing labor market and persistent inflation concerns Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) approved a quarter percentage point cut in the overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75%-4% during the October meeting, but the decision was contentious with a 10-2 vote indicating significant division among officials [5] - Many officials expressed skepticism about the need for an additional cut in December, with "many" suggesting that no further cuts are necessary at least in 2025 [2][4] - The minutes indicated that while several participants supported a further cut in December, a majority believed it would be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the rest of the year [3][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Concerns - Officials are divided on the economic outlook, with some viewing the current policy as still restrictive and hindering growth, while others believe the economy's resilience suggests the policy is not overly restrictive [7] - Concerns were raised about a slowing labor market and inflation that has not shown signs of returning sustainably to the Fed's 2% target, reflecting multiple perspectives within the committee [5][6] Group 3: Internal Divisions - The committee is split between inflation doves, who advocate for cuts to support the labor market, and hawkish members, who worry that further cuts could hinder progress towards the inflation target [8] - Moderates within the committee, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, prefer a cautious approach, with one participant advocating for a more aggressive half-point cut while others opposed any cuts [9] Group 4: Data Limitations and Policy Formulation - The decision-making process was complicated by a lack of government data during a 44-day government shutdown, which affected reports on labor market and inflation metrics [10] - Despite the data limitations, some members believe there is sufficient information to formulate policy, contrasting with Powell's analogy of "driving in the fog" [10] Group 5: Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC agreed to halt the reduction of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities in December, a process that has reduced the balance sheet by over $2.5 trillion, leaving it around $6.6 trillion [11]

Inflation dips to give hope of interest rate cut, and WH Smith CEO resigns -- get briefed ahead of your morning calls with The London Rush https://t.co/liDguePbbX ...

US stock futures leaned higher on Wednesday after another tech-led selloff, in the countdown to closely watched earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) that will set the tone for the next leg of the AI trade. Futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) both edged up 0.2%. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were little changed. The lackluster moves followed another down day for stocks. The Dow (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) logged their fourth straight decline, while the Nasdaq ...

Market Overview - All three major stock indexes experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping approximately 450 points (0.9%), the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq falling by 0.8% [1] Tech Stock Performance - Major tech stocks such as Amazon and Microsoft each fell by 3.5%, while Nvidia declined by 2.8%. Other notable declines included Meta (2.5%), Palantir (2.5%), Tesla (2.4%), Alphabet (1.8%), Broadcom (1%), and AMD (5.5%) [2] - Home Depot led losses in the Dow with a 4.3% drop following an earnings miss, alongside declines in several bank stocks including Visa (1.8%), American Express (1.6%), JPMorgan Chase (0.7%), and Goldman Sachs (0.3%) [2] Investor Sentiment on AI Stocks - A Bank of America survey indicated that 45% of global fund managers perceive AI stocks as being in a bubble, with concerns that some companies are over-hyped and disconnected from their actual value [3] - Approximately 53% of investors believe AI stocks are already in a bubble, a slight decrease from 54% in October [3] - The survey highlighted that concerns over the magnitude and financing of the AI boom are driving investor sentiment, marking the first time since 2005 that a majority expressed worries about overinvestment in the sector [3]

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.13%.  The dollar is under pressure today as signs of weakness in the US labor market have bolstered the outlook for the Fed to keep cutting interest rates after ADP reported employers cut jobs this month.  Losses in the dollar are limited by today’s news that the Nov NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high. Also, today’s slide in stocks has boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar. US weekly initial unemployment claims were 232,000 for ...

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller argued for "continuing rate cuts" on Monday, stating he supports cutting the Fed’s policy rate at its next meeting in December to manage risks from a deteriorating labor market.Waller Bats For Cuts, Harping On ‘Weak Labor Markets’Speaking in London, Waller identified the “weak labor market” as his primary focus, overriding concerns about inflation. “I am not worried about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly,” Waller said in prepar ...