Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its economic projections, focusing on interest rate policies and inflation expectations. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Cuts**: Most FOMC participants supported the December rate cut, with expectations to continue lowering rates into 2026 if inflation aligns with projections [2][4][8] - **Diverse Opinions**: A few participants expressed concerns about the labor market data justifying a rate cut, indicating a split in opinions among the members [3][8] - **Inflation Concerns**: Despite inflation remaining above target, most participants anticipated further rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected [4][8] - **Labor Market Outlook**: There is a notable concern regarding the labor market, with many participants indicating that a neutral policy stance could help prevent significant deterioration in labor conditions [3][9] - **Balance Sheet Discussion**: The FOMC approved "Reserve Management Purchases" to manage reserve balances in the banking system, addressing tensions in repo markets [10] Important but Overlooked Content - **Economic Projections**: The December summary of economic projections indicates a change in real GDP expected at 1.7% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, with unemployment rates projected to decrease slightly over the years [6] - **Volatility in Claims**: Initial claims for unemployment insurance are expected to rise slightly, reflecting seasonal volatility around the holidays [11][14] - **Manufacturing Index**: The FRB of Dallas manufacturing index fell to -10.9, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector for five consecutive months [19][23] - **Pending Home Sales**: The pending home sales index rose by 3.3% in November, although it remains historically low, indicating a mixed outlook for the housing market [27] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the FOMC's stance on interest rates, inflation, and economic projections, along with additional insights into the labor market and housing sector dynamics.

Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo analysts see the index rising to $7,800, while other companies like RBC Capital Markets, Evercore, Yardeni Research, FundStrat, and Goldman Sachs believe that the index will continue rising to over $7,500. Wall St Engine @wallstengine ·Follow Wall Street 2026 Year End Target For S&P 500 Oppenheimer: 8,100 Deutsche Bank: 8,000 Capital Economics: 8,000 Morgan Stanley: 7,800 Wells Fargo: 7,800 RBC Capital Markets: 7,750 Evercore ISI: 7,750 Yardeni Research: 7,700 Fundstrat: 7,700 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜贵金属大幅波动，伦敦现货黄金冲高回落，盘中一度冲上4400美元/盎司，最终收涨0.13%， COMEX黄金期货反弹0.43%，SHFE黄金小幅收涨0.04%。近期贵金属波动幅度较大，元旦期间外盘仍 有两个交易日，短线资金博弈，谨慎对待。 美联储会议纪要显示，大多数与会者认为，若通胀如预期逐步下降，可能适合进一步降息；大多数与会 者支持12月降息，支持降息者普遍提及近几个月就业下行风险增加；大多数与会者认为降息有助于防止 劳动力恶化，部分官员指出存在通胀升高的风险。美联储调查显示，受访者预计在购买启动后的前12个 月内，净购买规模约为2200亿美元。地缘政治方面，俄乌冲突有继续恶化迹象，沙特空袭穆卡拉港，也 门局势进一步升级，避险情绪或将影响黄金走势。 撰稿：李琪 新浪合作平台光大期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜贵金属大幅波动，伦敦现货黄金冲高回落，盘中一度冲上4400美元/盎司，最终收涨0.13%， COMEX黄金期货反弹0.43%，SHFE黄金小幅收涨0.0 ...

主席鲍威尔在会后记者会上表示，当前利率水平"足以防范劳动力市场更严重恶化，同时仍能持续抑制 通胀"。 由于2024年10月至11月期间美国政府停摆，关键经济数据发布延迟。多位委员强调，未来几周公布的劳 动力市场与通胀数据将对2026年1月会议决策至关重要。截至目前，新公布数据显示：11月失业率升至 4.6%，为2021年以来最高；同期消费者价格涨幅低于预期；但第三季度GDP年化增速达4.3%，创两年 新高。这些相互矛盾的信号尚未弥合内部意见分歧。 纪要发布后，基于联邦基金期货合约的市场定价显示，2026年1月降息概率已小幅降至约15%，强化了 当次会议维持利率不变的预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月31日电根据联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）于2025年12月9日至10日召开的政策会议 纪要，尽管多数官员支持在通胀持续回落的前提下进一步降息，但在降息时机与幅度问题上，委员之间 存在显著分歧。 会议纪要显示，部分支持本次降息的官员认为该决定属于"微妙的平衡"，甚至表示"本也可以支持维持 目标利率区间不变"。这一表述凸显了决策过程中的谨慎态度。最终，FOMC以9比3的投票结果，连续 第三次将联邦基金 ...

guest joining me right now. Morgan Stanley senior vice president and senior portfolio management director Jim Lampam. Jim, always great to have you on this program.So, can you answer that. Does the bull market keep roaring next year. >> I think so, Taylor.It would be very unusual for a market to stop when interest rates are falling, especially when interest rates are falling with the market at an all-time high. That's a very bullish signal. Generally, earnings expectations are rising. Capex plans for busine ...

在地缘政治紧张局势升级、美元走弱以及年末市场流动性偏低的共同推动下，贵金属在年末掀起历史性 行情。周五，黄金、白银和铂金价格一起刷新纪录，延续了今年以来罕见的强劲涨势。 现货黄金一度上涨1.6%，站上每盎司4,540美元上方；现货白银连续第五个交易日走高，大涨超10%， 突破每盎司79美元关口。铂金同样表现抢眼，价格首次突破每盎司2,400美元，为自1987年有统计数据 以来的新高。 分析人士指出，避险需求是推动本轮上涨的重要动力。近期，美国封锁委内瑞拉油轮、加大对委内瑞拉 政府的施压，同时还与尼日利亚政府合作，对"伊斯兰国"发动军事打击，加剧了全球地缘政治不确定 性。 从年度表现看，贵金属今年可谓"史诗级行情"。黄金年内累计上涨约70%，白银涨幅更是超过150%， 双双有望创下1979年以来最佳年度表现。推动涨势的因素包括各国央行持续买入、交易型基金(ETF)资 金流入，以及美联储年内连续三次降息。较低的利率环境削弱了无息资产的机会成本，市场还押注2026 年可能进一步降息。 此外，特朗普今年早些时候在重塑全球贸易格局方面采取的强硬立场，以及有关美联储独立性的言论， 也一度为贵金属涨势"添柴加火"。随着政府 ...

Core Insights - Wall Street's perspective has shifted towards expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy as economic momentum slows and inflation moderates, influenced by a cooling labor market and recent government shutdowns [2][4] Rate-Sensitive Stocks - **Crocs, Inc. (CROX)**: The company is leveraging its strong global brand and flexible operating model to benefit from improving consumer spending in a lower-rate environment. Management is focusing on brand health by reducing promotional dependence and enhancing pricing integrity. Product innovation and aggressive digital strategies are key growth drivers [7][9] - **Prologis, Inc. (PLD)**: Positioned to benefit from lower rates that could enhance leasing activity and support occupancy recovery. The company boasts competitive advantages such as irreplaceable locations and high customer retention, while also expanding into data centers and energy solutions [9][11] - **Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)**: The company is achieving record net orders and maintaining gross margins above 30%. Its focus on high-volume Texas markets and disciplined land acquisition strategy positions it well for future demand as affordability improves [9][12] Earnings Estimates - **Crocs, Inc. (CROX)**: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has increased by $0.70 to $12.13 for the current fiscal year and by $1.19 to $12.60 for the next fiscal year [8] - **Prologis, Inc. (PLD)**: The earnings estimate has risen by $0.01 to $5.80 for the current fiscal year and by $0.03 to $6.09 for the next fiscal year [11] - **Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)**: The earnings estimate has increased by $0.51 to $6.91 for the current fiscal year and by $0.12 to $6.89 for the next fiscal year [13]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.06%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.07%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.03%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down up +0.13%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +0.15%. Stock indexes are narrowly mixed, pressured by a +3 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield on today’s strong US Q3 GDP report of +4.3%.  The strong GDP report caused the market to reduce the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC me ...

We are awaiting GDP data this morning. Final real day of data before everyone leaves and goes home for the Christmas holiday. Although we need to point out that this data is going to be stale.Remember, we didn't get it in time because of the longest government shutdown in history. And actually, what we're getting to, Matt, as you can see, is reaction here. A massive upside surprise.Prior was 3.8%. Their survey was 3.3%. GDP comes in at 4.3% this morning, Matt.That is an uptick not many people were expecting ...

Bloomberg With less than two weeks to go, 2025 is set to be a record-breaking year for the $13 trillion US exchange-traded fund industry: new high-water marks in flows, launches and trading volume. It’s up for debate whether the next few years will be as kind. US-listed ETFs have attracted a staggering $1.4 trillion so far in 2025, shattering the annual flow record set just last year. At the same time, more than 1,000 new products have entered the market — another unprecedented sum. Trading volume in the ...