Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp freefall in the past 48 hours, scaring retail investors and raising serious concerns over its future viability. Though its price has improved slightly on Friday, traders are bracing themselves for the next big dip– and how much worse it might be. Luckily for the crypto industry, this year wouldn't be the first time that the future seemed dire. In times like these, history is the best anchor for knowing what happens next, which moves to avoid, and for overall assessi ...

Core Insights - Australia's consumer price growth remained elevated in Q4 2025, indicating a potential interest rate hike by the central bank to combat inflation [1] Economic Indicators - The central bank is likely to raise interest rates next week due to persistent inflation pressures [1] - Failure to act may result in inflation becoming excessively high [1]

一月会议预期：维持利率不变 日本央行将于1月23日公布最新的政策决议。知情人士向媒体表示，官员们目前的看法是，将利率维持在0.75%是合适的，该利率水平已达到三十 年来的高点。尽管整体倾向于按兵不动，委员会仍将在最后一刻之前持续监控经济数据和金融市场的变化，以做出最终决策。 此次会议的焦点将在于央行如何评估日元对潜在通胀的影响。知情人士向彭博称，鉴于通胀趋势已经接近央行设定的2%目标，官员们将密切关注 汇率波动如何改变家庭和企业的价格预期。 日本央行官员正日益关注日元疲软对通胀的潜在影响，这一态势可能对未来的加息路径产生实质性干扰。据知情人士向彭博透露，尽管日本央行 在即将召开的政策会议上可能维持利率不变，但汇率因素或将促使其重新评估加息时点，甚至可能被迫提前行动。 据彭博报道，日本央行官员认为，日元疲软对物价的影响力正在增强，特别是随着企业越来越倾向于将上升的投入成本转嫁给消费者，通胀压力 可能进一步加剧。尽管日本央行上月刚刚上调了基准利率，且并未设定既定的借贷成本路径，但若日元持续走弱，决策者可能会考虑将原本预计 在后续进行的加息提前。 目前，私人经济学家的普遍预期是日本央行将以每六个月左右一次的节奏加息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reduces the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia increasing interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Group 1 - The CPI data indicates a stabilization in inflation, which alleviates pressure on monetary policy [1] - This development may influence market expectations regarding future interest rate adjustments by the Reserve Bank of Australia [1]

Summary of Japan Outlook Report Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japanese Economy and Financial Markets - **Key Focus**: Macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy, foreign exchange, and equity strategy for Japan in 2026 Key Points Economic Recovery - Japan's economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by consumer spending from PM Takaichi's economic package and strong capital expenditures (capex) to address labor shortages [1][6][7] - Core CPI inflation is projected to fall below 2% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and remain there for the year, driven by slower food inflation, stable energy prices, and policy measures like scrapping the provisional gasoline tax [1][25][27] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, 2025, but is expected to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026 [2][34] - Market expectations suggest an 80% probability of a rate hike to 1.0% by July 2026, which may be overestimated [2][34] - Future rate hikes are anticipated in January and July 2027, with a terminal rate of 1.25% expected by mid-2027 [29][30] Foreign Exchange Dynamics - The yen is under downward pressure, with expectations that it will remain weak in H1 2026, potentially stabilizing between 150-160 USD/JPY before correcting to 140-150 in H2 2026 [3][62] - The Takaichi administration's tolerance for a weak yen is a key factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased inflation potentially leading to upward pressure on the yen later in 2026 [3][62] Capital Expenditures and Corporate Strategy - Capex is crucial for economic recovery, with a shift towards labor-saving investments and automation due to labor shortages [11][15] - Companies are expected to adjust their capital investments to replace human labor with technology, which may lead to a more stable capex trend [17][15] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include the extent of fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration, potential yen depreciation, and geopolitical tensions, particularly between Japan and China [1][18][19] - A downturn in spending by inbound visitors from China could negatively impact Japanese GDP, with estimates suggesting a potential decline of around 0.1% [18] Equity Market Outlook - The Japanese equity market may benefit from improved earnings growth prospects in FY26, with expected returns around 7% becoming more feasible [4][19] - Market participants are advised not to excessively fear moderately high-pressure economic policies, as many companies are improving margins by halting unprofitable operations [4][19] Policy Implications - The Takaichi administration's economic policies focus on supporting household activity in the short term while aiming to raise potential GDP in the long term [19][22] - The lack of an output gap suggests limited need for demand stimulation, with fiscal policy likely to be influenced by political considerations rather than economic indicators [21][22] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving political landscape in Japan, as changes could significantly impact economic policies and market expectations [63][64] - The anticipated recovery in the Japanese economy is seen as a gradual process, with structural changes in corporate behavior and investment strategies being critical for sustainable growth [11][17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japan's Economic Outlook - **Focus**: Economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal policy for 2026 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: Japan's GDP is expected to grow at +1.0% in 2026, a slight decrease from +1.3% in 2025, indicating resilience despite challenges [1][4] 2. **Inflation Trends**: Headline inflation is projected to temporarily fall below 2%, with strong wage growth expected to ease consumer purchasing power headwinds [1][4] 3. **Monetary Policy**: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to implement semiannual rate hikes, with the terminal rate expected to reach +1.5% by 2027 [5][6] 4. **Fiscal Policy Constraints**: Fiscal leeway is limited due to high government debt/GDP ratio and the JGB market's exit from quantitative easing, leading to moderate fiscal impulses [1][4][13] 5. **Wage Growth**: A base pay increase of approximately 3.3% is expected in spring wage negotiations, supported by labor shortages and corporate profits [20] 6. **Consumer Spending**: Real wage growth is expected to turn positive YoY early in 2026, which should support consumer spending growth [38][39] 7. **Inflation Forecast**: Core CPI is projected to decelerate to +1.7% in 2026 from +3.1% in 2025, influenced by government anti-inflation measures [22][23] 8. **Investment Trends**: Companies are increasingly investing in differentiating and developing value-added products to manage rising costs [44] Additional Important Points 1. **FX Risks**: Foreign exchange movements pose significant risks to the economic outlook, potentially affecting the timing of rate hikes [5][8] 2. **Public Sector Price Hikes**: The government is considering public sector price adjustments in line with inflation, which may impact CPI [25][26] 3. **Defense Spending**: PM Takaichi's administration is expected to increase defense spending, which may affect fiscal policy and market confidence [18] 4. **Tourism Risks**: Recent tensions with China could negatively impact services exports, particularly tourism, which is a significant contributor to GDP [56] 5. **Long-term Growth Potential**: The potential growth rate may improve due to structural reforms and investments under the Takaichi administration [10][17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call regarding Japan's economic outlook for 2026, highlighting growth expectations, inflation trends, monetary and fiscal policies, and potential risks.

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike has not provided a lasting boost to the yen, leading to increased skepticism about the currency's structural weaknesses and the outlook for its recovery [1]. Group 1: Yen Forecasts and Market Sentiment - Strategists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA predict the yen could weaken to 160 per dollar or lower by the end of 2026, influenced by significant US-Japan yield gaps, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows [2]. - The yen has gained less than 1% against the US dollar this year after four consecutive years of decline, with a brief rise past 140 per dollar in April before losing momentum due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and political risks in Japan [3]. - Junya Tanase, chief Japan FX strategist at JPMorgan, holds a particularly bearish forecast for the yen, predicting it could reach 164 per dollar by the end of 2026, citing weak fundamentals and potential cyclical forces that may further depress the currency [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - Current market expectations indicate that the next Bank of Japan rate hike is not fully anticipated until September, while inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, putting additional pressure on Japanese government bonds [5]. - The resurgence of carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is creating additional challenges for the yen's recovery, with leveraged funds showing significant bearish positions on the currency [6]. - Analysts suggest that global macro conditions in the coming year may support risk sentiment, which could benefit carry strategies and keep the dollar-yen exchange rate elevated, with expectations of the dollar-yen rising to 160 by the end of 2026 [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japan's Economy - **Forecast Period**: 2026 Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth**: Japan's GDP is expected to grow at +1.0% in 2026, a slight decrease from +1.3% in 2025, indicating resilience despite modest decline [1][4] - **Inflation Trends**: Headline inflation is projected to temporarily fall below 2%, with strong wage growth expected to ease consumer purchasing power headwinds [1][4] - **Bank of Japan (BoJ) Rate Hikes**: Anticipation of semiannual rate hikes by the BoJ, with the first expected in July 2026, and a terminal rate projected at +1.5% [5][6] - **Fiscal Policy Constraints**: Fiscal leeway is limited due to high government debt/GDP ratio and the JGB market's exit from quantitative easing, leading to moderate fiscal impulses [1][4][13] Additional Important Points - **Wage Growth**: Expected base pay increase of approximately 3.3% in spring negotiations, supported by labor shortages and corporate profits [20] - **Inflation Deceleration**: Core CPI is projected to decelerate to +1.7% in 2026 from +3.1% in 2025, influenced by government anti-inflation measures [22][23] - **Consumer Purchasing Power**: Recovery in purchasing power anticipated as food and energy inflation slows, allowing for higher service prices [23][24] - **Public Sector Price Adjustments**: Government considering price hikes in medical fees and other public services, which may impact CPI [25][26] - **Investment Trends**: Companies are increasingly investing in value-added products to manage rising costs, despite some sectors facing labor shortages [43][44] Risks and Considerations - **Exchange Rate Risks**: FX movements could impact the timing of rate hikes and overall economic stability [5][8] - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Recent tensions with China pose risks to service exports and tourism, which could affect GDP growth [56] - **Potential for Policy Missteps**: Concerns over unpredictable policy decisions may persist, particularly in the JGB market [1][4][13] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding Japan's economic outlook for 2026, highlighting growth expectations, inflation trends, fiscal policy constraints, and potential risks.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy board unanimously decided to increase the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, citing growing confidence in the economic outlook. Shortly after the statement, the yen weakened to around 156 per dollar, indicating the market had fully priced in the rate hike. ...

Market Overview - Australian shares have increased by +0.5% in futures, marking the first rise this week, influenced by positive trends in Wall Street [1] - The U.S. economic data showed core consumer prices rising by 2.6% in November, while overall CPI increased by 2.7%, impacting Federal Reserve's rate cut plans [2] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones rose by +0.1%, the S&P 500 increased by +0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite surged by +1.4%, breaking a four-day losing streak [3] Central Bank Actions - Japan's central bank is expected to raise rates to 0.75%, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's easing plans, which may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia [4] Company News - Meg O'Neill has been appointed as the first female CEO of BP, leaving her position at Woodside Energy, which saw its shares drop by -2.7% following the announcement [5] - ANZ Group may retain executive pay despite shareholder dissatisfaction over compliance failures, indicating potential negotiations for a middle ground [6] - Boss Energy's shares plummeted by -24% after a negative update on uranium extraction, indicating lower grade and more challenging extraction processes [7] - Amaero Ltd secured a $4.6 million order for refractory powder from Titomic as part of a five-year partnership, with shipments expected in Q3 and Q4 FY26 [7] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 66.1 U.S. cents - Iron Ore prices increased by +1.3% to $105 per tonne, while Brent Crude remained stable at $59.72 per barrel, and Gold is priced at $4,333 per ounce [9]