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Currency Market Overview - The dollar eased after the U.S. government shutdown ended, while the yen hit a record low against the euro due to Japan's new prime minister advocating for slow rate hikes [1][5] - The Australian dollar reached a two-week high following a significant drop in the unemployment rate, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts [2] Economic Data Impact - Currency markets may experience volatility as a backlog of economic data is released after the government shutdown, although some key figures for October may not be published [3] - The resolution of the Congressional impasse has removed uncertainty and a major growth headwind for markets [4] Yen and Interest Rate Dynamics - The yen traded at 179.805 per euro before recovering slightly, and approached a low of 155.02 per dollar, indicating significant weakness [5] - Japanese officials expressed concerns over yen weakness, with Finance Minister warning about rapid movements in the foreign exchange market [6] - A weak yen could compel the Bank of Japan to consider rate hikes, with traders estimating a 22% chance of a quarter-point increase in December and 43% by January [6] - Economists suggest that the government's survival may depend on managing the exchange rate, indicating a potential acceptance of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan to mitigate yen weakness [7]

Mizuho's CEO is confident that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-growth policies and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes will boost his bank’s businesses. https://t.co/5iXAPpCIjc ...

Core Insights - Gold prices surged to an all-time high of $4,035 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid political and economic instability in the United States [1][7] - The rally represents gold's strongest performance since the 1970s, with a 30% increase since April, driven by factors such as Trump's tariffs, a weakening dollar, and record inflows into gold-backed ETFs [2][7] Market Dynamics - The ongoing US government shutdown has contributed to increased demand for gold, as investors typically turn to safe-haven assets during periods of uncertainty [3][4] - Inflows into gold-backed ETFs reached a record $64 billion in 2025, indicating strong investor interest [3] Demand Trends - Precious metals dealers report a significant rise in demand from private clients, with some firms seeing their customer base double over the past year [4] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may eventually decline, the current economic environment supports an upward trend for at least the next five years [4] Interest Rate Impact - Historically, higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive, as seen in 2022 when gold prices fell from $2,000 to $1,600 due to aggressive Fed rate hikes [5] - Current market sentiment anticipates potential rate cuts, which could enhance gold's appeal [5][7] Competitive Landscape - Bitcoin has also experienced significant gains, surpassing $125,000, and is drawing parallels to gold as a safe-haven asset [6] - Analysts project that Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by year-end if the current momentum continues, indicating a competitive environment for safe-haven investments [6]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The ongoing US government shutdown has created unusual dynamics across various commodity sectors and markets [3] - The US dollar index has strengthened, leading to positive performance in the commodity complex, with all three major commodities starting the week in the green [3] - US Treasury yields are rising, indicating potential interest rate hikes to address anticipated inflation [3] Group 2: Metals Sector - December gold (GCZ25) reached a record high of $3,973.70, increasing by $64.80 (1.7%), despite the strong US dollar [4] - Silver prices also rose, with the December contract gaining $0.625 (1.3%) [4] - The upward trend in gold and silver prices is supported by ongoing purchases from central banks worldwide [4] Group 3: Energies Sector - King Crude Oil (WTI) (CLX25) saw an increase of $1.24 (2.0%) early Monday morning [5] - Futures spreads indicate stronger backwardation, but there is skepticism regarding the fundamental implications of this trend, as crude oil has been trending sideways to down for much of the past five years [5] - There appears to be a disconnect between the forward curve and the futures market dynamics, raising questions about future market behavior [5]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's likely first female prime minister is expected to influence the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy, particularly in delaying interest rate hikes due to her expansionist economic policies [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies - Takaichi is the only candidate advocating for significant government spending and a loose monetary policy, aiming to reflate demand and the broader economy [1][3]. - She emphasized the need for demand-driven inflation, where rising wages would stimulate demand and lead to moderate price increases that benefit corporate profits [4]. Group 2: Impact on Monetary Policy - Analysts predict that Takaichi's leadership will likely result in the BOJ refraining from raising interest rates in the near term, particularly during the upcoming meeting on October 30 [4][5]. - There is a possibility that the BOJ may adopt a more cautious approach to rate hikes, potentially delaying any increases until early next year [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Prior to Takaichi's victory, markets had priced in over a 60% probability of a rate hike this month, driven by sustained inflation above target levels for over three years [7].

Core Insights - Current savings account rates are above the national average, but are declining due to recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][5] - High-yield savings accounts offer significantly better interest rates, with some reaching up to 4% APY [2][3] - Online banks typically provide the best savings rates due to lower overhead costs [4] Savings Account Rates - As of September 22, 2025, the highest savings account rate available is 4.25% APY from Poppy Bank [3] - The national average savings account rate is only 0.40%, while 1-year CDs average 1.70% [5] Importance of Comparison - It is crucial for consumers to compare rates across financial institutions to secure the best savings account [6] - Factors beyond interest rates, such as minimum balance requirements and customer service, should also be considered [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly lower than the 79,000 in July and below the expected 80,000 [2] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, indicating a decline in job market momentum [2] - Manufacturing and construction sectors experienced job losses, with factories shedding 12,000 jobs and construction cutting 7,000 jobs [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to the weak job numbers, as the labor market's performance is influenced by interest rate hikes and trade policy uncertainties [2] Labor Market Performance - The Labor Department's report revealed a downward revision of 21,000 jobs for June and July, with actual job losses of 13,000 in June, marking the first monthly decline since December 2020 [2] - The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level since June, although claims remain within a healthy range [2] - U.S.-based employers announced over 892,000 job cuts through August, surpassing the total of 761,000 for all of 2024 [2] Economic Policy Impact - President Trump's economic policies, including trade wars, have contributed to uncertainty in the labor market, affecting hiring decisions [2] - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates has been influenced by the impact of Trump's import taxes on inflation [2] - The Labor Department is facing challenges in data collection due to a decline in company response rates to surveys, which has dropped from 60% to 40% over the past decade [4]

Core Insights - Kaspi.kz reported a 21% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 16% increase in net income for Q1 2025, excluding Türkiye [3] - Monthly transactions per active consumer reached 75, indicating strong customer engagement [3] - The company experienced a 23% increase in total payment volume (TPV) and a 17% increase in transactions within its Payments segment [3] Financial Performance - Payments revenue grew by 16% year-over-year, while net income in this segment increased by 21% [3] - Marketplace platform revenue grew by 33% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the 20% growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [3] - e-Grocery within the Marketplace saw a remarkable GMV increase of 64% year-over-year [3] Fintech and Credit Quality - The Fintech platform's total financing volume (TFV) grew by 17% year-over-year, with revenue growth of 18% attributed to healthy origination levels [3] - Macro-provisioning increased to 0.6% of cost of risk in Q1 2025, up from 0.5% in the same period in 2024, but underlying customer credit quality trends remain healthy [3] Strategic Developments - The acquisition of 65.41% of Hepsiburada was completed in January 2025, with an initial cash payment of $600 million and an additional $526.9 million due within six months [3] - A $650 million Eurobond was successfully placed to support expansion plans in Türkiye [3] - The company is in the process of acquiring Rabobank A.Ş. to launch deposit products and fund other financial services, pending regulatory approval [3] Market Conditions and Outlook - New smartphone registration requirements in Kazakhstan temporarily reduced demand, resulting in a 7% lower e-commerce GMV growth in Q1 [3] - The company expects around 15% consolidated net income growth year-over-year in 2025, a more conservative outlook compared to the previous guidance of 20% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla stock has faced significant losses in early 2025 due to various bearish factors, including political uncertainty and declining vehicle deliveries [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - President Trump's tariff policies have introduced uncertainty into financial markets, potentially affecting corporate profits [2]. - Disrupted supply chains, higher import costs, and retaliatory tariffs could further diminish earnings, while resurgent inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Tesla experienced its first year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries in January, with earnings and revenues falling below analyst expectations during the last earnings call [3]. - Major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, have reduced their price targets for Tesla stock, and short-selling activity has increased [3]. Group 3: Political Influence - CEO Elon Musk's political involvement has negatively impacted Tesla's public perception, contributing to the formation of the Tesla Takedown movement, which is boycotting the company's products [4][8]. - The boycott began on February 3, with Tesla stock trading at $383.68, and by March 13, the price had dropped to $237.80, marking a 38.02% decline since the boycott started [7]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Tesla stock has decreased by 41.12% in value, despite recent price target cuts [9]. - The average 12-month price forecast for TSLA shares is $347.59, indicating potential upside despite current challenges [9].