The US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, saying he exceeded his authority by invoking a federal-emergency powers law to impose his “reciprocal” tariffs as well as targeted import taxes on countries to address fentanyl trafficking.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said it’s prudent to have interest rates mildly restrictive as he expects US growth in 2026 to put upward pressure on inflation.The University of Michigan US Feb 1-year inflation expectations were revised lower ...

Group 1: Walmart - Walmart shares fell over 2% in premarket trading after the company's fiscal year guidance was softer than expected, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $2.75 and $2.85, below Wall Street's forecast of $2.96 [2][5] - Despite the recent dip, Walmart's stock has increased by more than 21% over the past year and nearly 175% over the last five years, reaching a market cap of $1 trillion earlier this month [5] - The company is under new leadership with CEO John Furner, who took over earlier this month, and investors are closely watching Walmart's future performance [5] Group 2: Federal Reserve - Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting indicated a consensus on holding interest rates steady, but there was significant division regarding future monetary policy directions [2][3] - Some Fed members suggested that interest rates could decrease if inflation trends downward, while others believe that easing may not be necessary until clear signs of disinflation are observed [3] Group 3: Airline Industry - United Airlines announced changes to its frequent flyer program, stating that customers flying basic economy without the airline's credit card will earn fewer miles, aligning with similar moves by American Airlines and Delta Air Lines [12][13] - Cardholders will benefit from earning more points and receiving frequent flyer discounts, marking significant adjustments to the airline's loyalty program in over a decade [14] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - FDA Commissioner Marty Makary warned that the U.S. is lagging behind China in early-stage drug development and suggested streamlining the process for initiating trials on new treatments [6][7] - Moderna's shares rose approximately 6% after the FDA agreed to review its experimental mRNA flu shot, reversing a previous refusal of the application [8]

Key TakeawaysAlcoa (AA) has been fined A$55 million by the Australian government for failing to adequately remediate historic land clearing.The NZD/USD pair plummeted toward the 0.6000 psychological level after RBNZ Governor Anna Breman downplayed the likelihood of near-term interest rate hikes.YouTube, owned by Alphabet (GOOGL), resolved a massive technical outage that affected over 300,000 users globally.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, defying hawkish mar ...

Economic Outlook - The dollar is experiencing underlying weakness, with expectations of a -50 basis point interest rate cut by the FOMC in 2026, while the BOJ is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [1] - The markets are pricing in a 12% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting on March 17-18 [1] Dollar Performance - The dollar reached a 4-year low following President Trump's comments expressing comfort with its weakness, compounded by foreign capital outflows due to a growing budget deficit and political polarization [2] - The dollar index (DXY) rose to a 1-week high, increasing by +0.66%, supported by the nomination of Keven Warsh as the next Fed Chair, who is perceived as hawkish [5] Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The US January ISM manufacturing index increased by +4.7 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, marking the strongest expansion in over 3.25 years [3][5] - German December retail sales rose by +0.1% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while November sales were revised upward [7] Currency Movements - The euro fell to a 1-week low, down by -0.58%, pressured by a stronger dollar, although it found some support from an upward revision of the Eurozone January S&P manufacturing PMI [6] - The yen declined by +0.56% against the dollar, influenced by comments from Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi regarding the benefits of a weak currency for exports [8] Precious Metals Market - April COMEX gold closed down -92.50 (-1.95%), and March COMEX silver fell -1.522 (-1.94%), reaching 4-week lows due to a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical risks [11][12] - Strong central bank demand for gold is evident, with China's PBOC reserves increasing by +30,000 ounces to 74.15 million troy ounces in December, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of increases [18]

US stocks slid on Friday as President Trump said he would nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, against a background of a rising dollar and a screeching halt to 2026's roaring metals rally. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, recording another down session for tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.4%. Despite Friday's volatility, all the gauges notched slight January gains. The Dow and Nasdaq both posted t ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and faces opposition in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination and Market Reaction - Warsh is viewed as a hawkish choice with strong Wall Street ties, advocating for multiple reforms of the central bank [1]. - The market is reacting negatively to Warsh's nomination, indicating worries about Fed independence, as noted by Gennadiy Goldberg from TD Securities [4]. - Warsh's long-standing criticism of the Fed's dovish stance makes him a challenging figure for markets to interpret over the long term [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - President Trump has expressed expectations that the next chair will align with his administration's monetary policy, which has raised global concerns about the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [2]. - Warsh's appointment may lead to pressure on longer-dated yields while potentially reducing the need for hedges against inflation due to fears of debt monetization [6]. Group 3: Senate Opposition - Senator Thom Tillis has announced his opposition to Warsh's nomination until the Department of Justice's investigation of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce his choice for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, a decision that could impact the central bank's independence from political influence [1] Group 1: Announcement and Candidates - Trump plans to announce his Fed chair nominee on Friday morning, a decision that has been highly anticipated [1] - The search for the nominee was led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with four known finalists: Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Rick Rieder, and Kevin Hassett [1] - Trump previously indicated that Hassett was the frontrunner but later suggested he wanted Hassett to remain in his current position [1] Group 2: Tensions with Jerome Powell - Tensions between Trump and current Fed Chair Jerome Powell have escalated, with Trump criticizing Powell for not cutting interest rates more aggressively [1] - Powell's term as chair ends in May, but he remains on the Fed's board of governors until 2028, which could limit Trump's ability to influence the board [1] - Powell has emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence and advised any successor to avoid getting involved in electoral politics [1] Group 3: Implications of the Nomination - The new Fed chair could influence interest rates, inflation, and job market stability, which are critical to the U.S. economy [1] - If Powell remains on the board, he could create procedural hurdles for Trump's nominee, potentially affecting the balance of power within the Fed [1] - Trump's nominee is expected to align with his views on monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve by President Trump could lead to significant changes at the central bank, which plays a crucial role in the global economy and markets [1] Group 1: Warsh's Appointment and Challenges - Warsh's potential Senate confirmation will be closely monitored by financial markets and Congress, especially given Trump's demand for lower interest rates, which may not align with prevailing economic conditions [2] - Maintaining the Fed's independence while satisfying Trump's expectations presents a considerable challenge for Warsh [2] - Warsh has the intellectual capability and interpersonal skills to navigate this complex situation, according to former associates [3] Group 2: Background and Experience - Warsh, who served on the Fed's board from 2006 to 2011, was the youngest governor in history at the age of 35 and is currently affiliated with the Hoover Institution and Stanford Graduate School of Business [5] - His previous tenure included objections to low-interest rate policies during and after the Great Recession, as he expressed concerns about potential inflation [6][7] Group 3: Economic Perspectives - Warsh has historically supported higher interest rates to combat inflation, contrasting with Trump's preference for a key rate as low as 1%, significantly below the current rate of approximately 3.6% [6]

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] - The Fed noted improvements in the U.S. economy and labor market since the last meeting [2] - Powell emphasized the significance of the legal case against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could impact her position [2][3] Company Earnings and Market Reactions - Tech giants Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla reported earnings that exceeded expectations for both earnings per share and revenue [3] - Meta's shares surged by up to 10% due to a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast for Q1 [4] - Tesla's stock increased by approximately 1% despite experiencing its first annual revenue decline in 2025 [4] - Microsoft shares fell over 6% due to slowing cloud growth and conservative margin guidance [4] Semiconductor Industry Performance - SK Hynix reported a record full-year profit for 2025, driven by memory chip shortages [5] - Samsung Electronics achieved an all-time high in fourth-quarter earnings, also attributed to memory chip shortages [5] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index reached the 7,000 level for the first time but closed below it [6] - The U.S. dollar strengthened following Treasury Secretary's denial of currency market intervention [6] - Gold prices hit a record high above $5,500 in Asia [6]

Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% with a vote of 10–2, indicating a slight confidence in the labor market as the statement removed previous concerns about rising downside risks to employment [5][6] - Chairman Jerome Powell faced questions regarding the Fed's independence and the recent decline in the dollar, but he reiterated the commitment to central bank independence and stated that the Fed's decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis [4][5] Stock Market - Major stock indexes ended mixed, with the Nasdaq closing up 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed barely lower and higher, respectively [7] - Seagate Technology saw a significant rally after reporting stronger-than-expected results and issuing guidance above forecasts, with analysts expecting continued revenue and margin gains [10] Corporate Developments - AT&T reported a strong Q4 performance, exceeding expectations on both top and bottom lines, despite weaker subscriber metrics, and provided a full-year profit outlook above expectations [9] - Starbucks recorded its second consecutive quarter of positive comparable sales after a seven-quarter decline, projecting global and U.S. comp sales growth of 3% or more [9] - Amazon announced plans to cut approximately 16,000 corporate jobs as part of efforts to streamline operations, affecting a significant portion of its corporate workforce of around 350,000 [11][12]