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华龙证券:智驾平权与人形机器人催化 维持乘用车行业“推荐”评级
智通财经网· 2025-07-07 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is expected to experience significant growth, with a projected increase of 8.91% in the Shenwan Automotive Index by the first half of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 8.88 percentage points, driven by advancements in intelligent driving and humanoid robots [1] Group 1: Passenger Vehicle Market Dynamics - The passenger vehicle market is anticipated to accelerate convergence, supported by vehicle replacement policies, with growth in the first half of 2025 [1] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to dominate the mainstream market under 150,000 yuan, while high-end market share still has room for growth [1] - New models in the 200,000-300,000 yuan range, such as Xiaomi's YU7, XPeng's G7, and Li Auto's i6, are expected to have blockbuster potential [1] - The high-end luxury market is well-supplied with models like the AITO M8/9 and the ZunJie S800, indicating continued growth in domestic and new energy vehicle shares [1] - The focus of competition is shifting from price wars to product strength, suggesting a need to monitor efficient players with scale effects and cost control, as well as leading intelligent driving companies [1] Group 2: Export Growth of Domestic Automakers - From January to May 2025, passenger vehicle exports are expected to maintain double-digit growth, with plug-in hybrid models being a significant growth driver [2] - 2025 marks a period of intensive overseas capacity deployment for domestic automakers, focusing on markets like Southeast Asia (represented by Thailand) and Latin America (represented by Mexico and Brazil) [2] - New entrants like Leap Motor and XPeng are set to take their first steps in overseas markets in 2025, with domestic models having pricing advantages that could become a key profit source for automakers [2] Group 3: Intelligent Driving Technology Expansion - The L2 segment is expected to see growth due to domestic chip replacement and economies of scale in core components, with leading players moving from L2 to L3 upgrades [3] - By 2025, sales of mid-to-high-end intelligent driving models are projected to reach 5.5 million units, with a penetration rate of 22.9% [3] - The L4 segment, particularly Robotaxi, is set to expand rapidly due to policy changes and cost reductions in core components, with leading players like Waymo and RoboTaxi receiving substantial orders [3] - The profitability of Robotaxi platforms is anticipated as fleet sizes increase, with a focus on core hardware suppliers, leading intelligent driving companies, and Robotaxi operators [3] Group 4: Humanoid Robot Sector Developments - In 2025, leading humanoid robot manufacturers like Tesla, Figure AI, and UBTECH are actively deploying in industrial scenarios, which is expected to enhance robot capabilities through large-scale data collection [4] - Challenges remain in complex home scenarios regarding cognitive decision-making, endurance, precision operation, and motion control [4] - Attention is recommended on key incremental components such as dexterous hands, lead screws, and sensors [4]