| 行植期货 | | | 碳 酸 ª 译 20250710:国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-09 | 2025-07-08 | 2025-07-03 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 64700.00 | 65100.00 | 64300.00 | -400.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 64680.00 | 64240.00 | 64160.00 | 440.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 63740.00 | 64080.00 | 420.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 63740.00 | 63800.00 | 420.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 64400.00 | 63880.00 | 64080.00 | 520.00 | | | 砖酸但期货 | | 成交量(手) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The domestic lithium carbonate supply in May 2025 is expected to be loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month. Due to the cost and supply - demand expectations, the lithium carbonate price may remain weak. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 53,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - On May 26, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with May 23, 2025, with decreases of 720 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, and 860 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 32,588 lots, and the open interest increased by 7,966 lots. The inventory decreased by 794 tons [1]. - The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts increased by 140 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Spot Price - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide decreased compared with the previous period. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 550 yuan/ton [1]. - The price differences between different grades of lithium products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium - Related Company News - Dazhong Mining, a domestic mining enterprise, has made important breakthroughs in its "iron ore + lithium ore" dual - wheel drive strategy. Its Hunan lithium ore project has rapid progress, with a proven reserve of 3.044 million tons in December 2024 [1]. - Sijie Co., Ltd. released new sulfide products at the 2025 China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference. It has achieved leading - level production indicators in terms of purity, particle size control, and ion conductivity of sulfide solid - state electrolytes. It has also reached a procurement framework agreement with Beijing Weilan New Energy [2]. - Hainan Mining's 20,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project has achieved full - process connectivity, marking a phased achievement in its industrial transformation and upgrading strategy [3]. - Rio Tinto will form a joint venture with the Chilean National Mining Company to develop and operate the Maricunga Salt Lake project in Chile, with a planned investment of up to $900 million [3]. Supply - Demand Situation Supply - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine project may increase the total annual production capacity to 2.01 million tons after being put into operation in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium concentrate and an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of lithium concentrate in May. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the supply in May is expected to be loose [4]. - The import window of lithium carbonate is closed, and the theoretical delivery profit is negative, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange and a decrease in the social inventory of lithium carbonate [4]. - The monthly cash production cost of lithium hydroxide by some domestic methods is positive or negative in terms of profit. Some companies' production line construction plans may increase the production volume and inventory of lithium hydroxide in May, while the export profit is negative, which may lead to an increase in the export volume [4]. Demand - The average production cost of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate by different domestic production processes is within a certain range. The production volume and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate may increase in May. Some companies' project plans will also affect the production and inventory of related products [5]. - The production (import) volume of various lithium - related products such as cobalt sulfate, electrolytic manganese dioxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, and hexafluorophosphate lithium may change in May due to factors such as production cost and profit [6]. - Some new energy - related projects are expected to be put into operation, which may increase the production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage cells, power cells, and lithium - ion batteries in May, as well as the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in April is expected to be loose, and the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fall and difficult to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly set up short positions when the price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 3100 - 6000 and the pressure level around 2000 - 7000 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: On April 25, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 68380 yuan/ton, 68180 yuan/ton, 69240 yuan/ton, and 69240 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 108177 lots, and the open interest was 217370 lots. The inventory was 31555 tons [1] - **Spot**: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate on April 25, 2025, was 69800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Project Investment and Production**: Linyi Buzha Weimang Environmental Protection New Materials Co., Ltd. plans to invest 100 million yuan to build a project for recycling and reusing 10,000 tons of waste lithium batteries annually. Silver Age Ruitai New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s 20,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project in Baiyin City, Gansu Province, has been put into production. Fangyuan Co., Ltd. terminates a project worth up to 2 billion yuan [1][2] - **Supply - side Changes**: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, increasing the total capacity to 210,000 tons/year. Albemarle's phosphate salt production line will be overhauled before June 2025. Zijin Lithium's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity will be completed and put into production in December 2025 [3] - **Demand - side Changes**: The demand for energy - storage batteries is gradually recovering, and the production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage batteries may increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles may also increase [5] 3.3 Market Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The production and import of domestic lithium in April may increase, and the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be loose. The production of lithium hydroxide may also increase [3][5] - **Demand**: The demand for some cathode materials is recovering, but the production profit of some products is negative, which may affect production [5]