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市场情绪持续上升,模型提示行业间交易活跃度上升——量化择时周报20250725
申万宏源金工· 2025-07-29 08:00
Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has increased, indicating a bullish outlook for the market as of July 25, with a score of 1.8, up from 0.65 the previous week [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The sentiment structure indicator is calculated using a scoring method based on the direction of each sub-indicator and its position within the Bollinger Bands, resulting in a 20-day moving average score [1]. - The trading volatility between industries has shown a positive signal, suggesting increased capital activity and reduced uncertainty in short-term sentiment [4][14]. - The financing ratio has decreased, indicating a decline in the heat of margin trading, which requires further observation [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity and Volume - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has maintained an upward trend, with a peak daily trading volume of 19,286.45 billion RMB on July 25 [9]. - The consistency of price and volume remains high, indicating active participation and capital engagement in the market [6]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric equipment have shown strong performance, while sectors like public utilities, media, and banking have lagged behind [16]. - The short-term trend scores for industries like coal, food and beverage, and beauty care have significantly increased, with coal showing a remarkable rise of 109.09% [19][20]. Group 4: Style and Trend Analysis - The small-cap growth style is currently favored, with the relative strength index (RSI) indicating a strong preference for growth stocks over value stocks [21][22]. - The trend scoring model shows that industries like coal, food and beverage, and construction materials have strong short-term trend scores, suggesting potential investment opportunities [19][20].
伴随缩量市场情绪进一步下行——量化择时周报20250418
申万宏源金工· 2025-04-21 03:43
1. 情绪模型观点:市场情绪进一步下行 根 据 《 从 结 构 化 视 角 全 新 打 造 市 场 情 绪 择 时 模 型 》 文 中 提 到 的 构 建 思 路 , 目 前 我 们 用 于 构 建 市 场 情 绪 结 构 指 标 所 用 到 的 细 分 指 标 如 下 表 | 指标简称 | 含义 | 情绪指示方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业间交易波动率 | 资金在各板块间的交易活跃度 | 正向 | | 行业交易拥挤度 | 极值状态判断市场是否过热 | 负向 | | 价量一致性 | 资金情绪稳定性 | 正向 | | 科创 50 成交占比 | 资金风险偏好 | 正向 | | 行业涨跌趋势性 | 刻画市场轮涨补涨程度,趋势衡量 | 正向 | | RSI | 价格体现买方和卖方力量相对强弱 | 正向 | | 主力买入力量 | 主力资金净流入水平 | 正向 | | PCR 结合 VIX | 从期权指标看市场多空情绪 | 正向或负向 | | 融资余额占比 | 资金对当前和未来观点多空 | 6 公众号 · 普罗完酒会工 | 在指标合成方法上,模型采用打分的方式,根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和 ...