基本分析主要是通过研究影响汇率的各种基本因素，来判断货币价值的走势。这些基本因素涵盖经济、 政治以及社会等多个方面。 从经济层面来看，宏观经济数据的变化对汇率有着显著的影响。国内生产总值（GDP）体现了一个国家 经济的总体规模和增长态势，GDP的增长往往预示着该国经济的良好发展，可能会吸引外资流入，从而 推动本国货币升值；通货膨胀率也是关键因素之一，较高的通货膨胀率可能削弱本国货币的购买力，引 发货币贬值；而利率则是调节经济和影响汇率的重要杠杆，当一国提高利率时，会吸引国际资金流入， 增加对该国货币的需求，促进货币升值。 政治因素在外汇市场同样举足轻重。政治稳定性、政府政策以及国际关系等都可能对外汇汇率造成影 响。一个国家政治局势的稳定是经济发展的基础，如果政局动荡，投资者对该国的信心会下降，资金外 逃，货币也会随之下跌；政府的财政政策和货币政策直接作用于经济运行，进而关联到汇率的波动；国 际关系中的贸易摩擦、地缘政治冲突等也会在外汇市场引发连锁反应。 技术分析则侧重于研究市场的历史价格和成交量数据，以预测未来汇率的趋势。其中重要的工具和理论 有很多。 蜡烛图技术通过绘制金融市场价格图表中的蜡烛图形态，帮助交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has increased, indicating a bullish outlook for the market as of July 25, with a score of 1.8, up from 0.65 the previous week [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The sentiment structure indicator is calculated using a scoring method based on the direction of each sub-indicator and its position within the Bollinger Bands, resulting in a 20-day moving average score [1]. - The trading volatility between industries has shown a positive signal, suggesting increased capital activity and reduced uncertainty in short-term sentiment [4][14]. - The financing ratio has decreased, indicating a decline in the heat of margin trading, which requires further observation [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity and Volume - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has maintained an upward trend, with a peak daily trading volume of 19,286.45 billion RMB on July 25 [9]. - The consistency of price and volume remains high, indicating active participation and capital engagement in the market [6]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric equipment have shown strong performance, while sectors like public utilities, media, and banking have lagged behind [16]. - The short-term trend scores for industries like coal, food and beverage, and beauty care have significantly increased, with coal showing a remarkable rise of 109.09% [19][20]. Group 4: Style and Trend Analysis - The small-cap growth style is currently favored, with the relative strength index (RSI) indicating a strong preference for growth stocks over value stocks [21][22]. - The trend scoring model shows that industries like coal, food and beverage, and construction materials have strong short-term trend scores, suggesting potential investment opportunities [19][20].

Group 1 - The market sentiment score has increased, indicating a further recovery in market sentiment, with the score rising from -0.9 to -0.25 as of July 11 [1][3] - The industry trading volatility has risen, reflecting a recovery in fund activity and a decrease in short-term sentiment uncertainty [3][5] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has increased, with the highest daily trading volume reaching 17,366.10 billion RMB on Friday [8][11] Group 2 - The short-term trend scores for industries such as construction materials, construction decoration, and basic chemicals have significantly increased, with construction materials showing a rise of 21.05% [17] - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates that small-cap stocks are currently favored, with a strong signal for growth style, although there are multiple signal switches that require further observation [19][17]

Group 1 - The market sentiment score has further declined, with the current score at -0.9 as of July 4, down from -0.65 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] - The trading volatility between industries has decreased, suggesting a lack of active capital and increased uncertainty in short-term sentiment [3][11] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has shown a slight increase compared to the previous week, but the daily trading volume has been on a downward trend, with the lowest daily trading volume recorded at 1.33 trillion RMB on Thursday [5][8] Group 2 - The short-term trend scores for industries such as steel, construction materials, and basic chemicals have significantly increased, with construction materials showing a rise of 90.91% [23][24] - The banking, communication, media, and comprehensive sectors are identified as the top five industries with the strongest short-term trends [23] - The value style is currently dominant, with the model indicating a preference for large-cap stocks over growth stocks [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing tension ahead of the US tariff negotiations deadline on July 9, but there is no panic, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach [3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current trading price of spot silver is $36.57 per ounce, with a daily high of $37.21 and a low of $36.34 [1]. - The dollar index is trading around 97.37 [1]. - The market is showing some nervousness regarding the upcoming tariff announcements, but the reaction appears more relaxed compared to previous situations [3]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations - The Trump administration has only signed agreements with the UK and Vietnam since announcing comprehensive tariffs, with limited agreements reached with major Asian countries [3]. - There are indications that the new deadline for tariffs may be flexible, especially for major trading partners [3]. - The final decision regarding tariffs will ultimately depend on President Trump [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver is currently pausing its upward trend but still shows an upward inclination, forming a double bottom chart pattern [4]. - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.00 and $38.00, with a potential drop below $36.00 leading to further declines [5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum, suggesting that the path of least resistance is upward [5].

Group 1 - The market sentiment score has further declined, indicating a bearish outlook as of June 20, with a score of 0.05, down from 0.8 the previous week [1][4][6] - The price-volume consistency has decreased, reflecting a lack of capital activity and increased divergence in market sentiment [4][6] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has significantly decreased, with a daily trading volume of 1.09 trillion RMB, marking the lowest for the month [9] Group 2 - The electronic industry shows a significant upward trend, with a short-term trend score increase of 25.00%, indicating strong performance [18][19] - The banking, oil and petrochemical, communication, comprehensive, and national defense industries are identified as the top five sectors with the strongest short-term trends [18] - The small-cap value style is currently favored, while there are signs of a potential strengthening of the large-cap style [20]

Group 1 - The market sentiment score has further declined, with the current score at 1.75, down from 2.5 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook [1][4][6] - The financing balance ratio and the 300 RSI index scores have decreased, reflecting an increase in bearish sentiment among investors [4][9] - The overall market lacks a clear investment theme, with industry performance trends remaining weak and negative [17][20] Group 2 - The total transaction volume in the A-share market has seen a slight increase, with a daily transaction amount of 1.17 trillion RMB, but significant outflows of main funds have negatively impacted market performance [12] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as communication, real estate, and media have shown significant increases, with communication and real estate industries rising by 41.67% [23][24] - The small-cap growth style is currently favored, with a strong signal indicating its superiority over other styles, while the differentiation between growth and value styles remains weak [25]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has declined, indicating a bearish outlook for the market as it has ended its upward repair trend [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a low position for most of 2023, only breaking above 2 in October 2024 [1]. - As of May 30, the market sentiment score was 2.5, down from 2.65 the previous week, suggesting a shift towards a bearish sentiment [1]. - The decline in sentiment is supported by a decrease in industry trading activity and a drop in the PCR combined with VIX indicators, reflecting increased uncertainty in fund sentiment [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The trading activity score across industries has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak trends in industry performance [6][13]. - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped, with a notable decline in the first three trading days of May, reaching a low of 1.16 trillion RMB on Friday [8]. - The industry performance shows that sectors like environmental protection, biomedicine, and national defense have maintained positive growth, while sectors like automobiles, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant declines [16][17]. Group 3: Short-term Trends - The short-term trend scoring model indicates that sectors such as computer, media, electronics, and biomedicine have shown significant upward trends, with the computer sector's score increasing by 22.22% [19][20]. - The model suggests that small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with strong signals indicating a preference for this style despite a potential strengthening of value styles [21].

Group 1 - The market sentiment score is currently stable, with the sentiment structure indicator fluctuating around the 0 axis within the range of [-6, 6]. As of May 23, the market sentiment indicator has risen, indicating a bullish outlook [1][3] - The sentiment indicators have not shown significant changes compared to the previous week, with trading volume and investment themes being crucial for further sentiment improvement. The market risk appetite has decreased, and the industry trend scores remain negative [3][11] - The total trading volume for the week was approximately 1.18 trillion RMB, with a daily trading volume of 974.53 million shares on Friday [5] Group 2 - The industry trend scores continue to be negative, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak industry performance. The sectors with the highest gains include pharmaceuticals, comprehensive, automotive, and coal, while the sectors with the largest declines include electronics, computers, communications, and machinery [11][13] - The short-term trend scores for various industries have shown significant increases, particularly in the household appliances sector, which saw a rise of 24% [17][18] - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap stocks, with the growth style continuing to dominate despite a strengthening value trend [17][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment is recovering, with a short-term bullish outlook based on the sentiment model [1] - The sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a notable low position in 2023, but has recently risen to a score of 2 as of May 16, suggesting further recovery [1] - The model indicates that market sentiment has been improving for 17 consecutive trading days since the low point on April 18 [1] Group 2 - Future sentiment recovery requires dual support from trading volume and investment themes, as the market's risk appetite has decreased despite some positive sentiment indicators [4] - The A-share market's trading volume has decreased compared to the previous week, with a daily trading volume of 952.91 million shares on Friday [5] - The net outflow of funds from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has accelerated, with a total outflow of 2.453 billion yuan this week [8] Group 3 - The industry trend score has turned negative, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak sector performance [11] - The short-term trend scores for the comprehensive and transportation sectors have increased significantly, with both sectors showing an increase of nearly 60% [14] - The model suggests that the growth style is currently dominant, although there has been a recent shift towards large-cap styles [16]