1 情绪模型观点：投资者情绪周内企稳 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标用到的细分指标如下表。 | 指标简称 | 含义 | 情绪指示方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业间交易波动率 | 资金在各板块间的交易活跃度 | 正向 | | 行业交易拥挤度 | 极值状态判断市场是否过热 | 负向 | | 价量一致性 | 资金情绪稳定性 | 正向 | | 科创 50 成交占比 | 资金风险偏好 | 正向 | | 行业涨跌趋势性 | 刻画市场轮涨补涨程度,趋势衡量 | 正向 | | RSI | 价格体现买方和卖方力量相对强弱 | 正向 | | 主力买入力量 | 主力资金净流入水平 | 正向 | | PCR 结合 VIX | 从期权指标看市场多空情绪 | 正向或负向 | | 融资余额占比 | 资金对当前和未来观点多空 | 正向 | 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指 标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20日均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices is attributed to negative signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had previously reached an overbought level [1] Group 1 - The market is attempting to digest the previous overbought conditions [1] - Investors are locking in some profits from the recent upward trend [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is experiencing a cooling effect due to the overbought sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has cooled, with the sentiment indicator at 2.65 as of February 6, slightly up from 2.6 the previous week, indicating a neutral stance from a sentiment perspective [4][5]. Sentiment Model Viewpoint - The sentiment model indicates a decline in market sentiment, with a rapid decrease in price-volume consistency, suggesting a significant drop in the correlation between price increases and market attention [5][7]. - The sentiment structure indicator is calculated using various sub-indicators, with a scoring method that evaluates the sentiment direction and Bollinger band positions, resulting in a 20-day moving average of the summed scores [2][3]. Market Activity - The price-volume consistency indicator has rapidly declined, reflecting a significant reduction in the degree of price-volume matching, indicating a cooling market sentiment [5][7]. - The total trading volume for the A-share market decreased significantly by 21.43% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 24,066.54 billion yuan, marking a notable drop in market activity [10][14]. Sector Analysis - As of February 6, 2026, the sectors with the highest short-term scores include construction materials and petroleum & petrochemicals, both scoring 93.22, indicating strong short-term performance [28]. - The correlation between sector congestion and weekly price changes is negative at -0.30, suggesting that high congestion sectors like food and beverage are experiencing significant price increases, while low congestion sectors may have more stable valuations [31][32]. Financing and Investment Sentiment - The financing balance ratio has slightly increased and remains above the upper Bollinger band, indicating a high level of leveraged funds and a generally positive risk appetite among investors [21][24]. - The RSI indicator has shown a decline, reflecting a decrease in short-term upward momentum and an increase in selling pressure, indicating a reduction in market participation willingness [23][34]. Overall Market Signals - The current model indicates a preference for large-cap and value styles, with signals suggesting potential strengthening in these areas as indicated by the rapid decline of the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI [28][35].

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price has rebounded in recent trading, maintaining support at the $4800 level and recovering from previous losses while absorbing significant selling pressure [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The relative strength index (RSI) is attempting to escape the oversold condition and is sending positive signals, supporting gold prices to remain above this critical support level [1] - Despite the intraday improvement, the overall short-term outlook remains pessimistic, with a bearish correction trend dominating [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The price continues to trade below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), which acts as a dynamic resistance, limiting any potential rebounds [1] - The likelihood of prices regaining upward momentum is reduced due to this resistance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices continue to rise after reaching the anticipated support level of $4550, which has provided a solid foundation for upward momentum [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The relative strength index (RSI) has issued a positive signal after hitting oversold levels, further supporting the rebound and opening the path for recovering some of the previous losses [1] - The stock continues to trade below the EMA50, which acts as dynamic resistance, limiting the strength of the current recovery [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - A short-term breakdown of a smaller upward trend line has also restricted the current rebound, placing it in a temporary adjustment phase [1]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading below 82.27, with an opening price of 79.19 USD/oz and a current price of 81.60 USD/oz, reflecting a 3.09% increase. The highest price reached was 85.65 USD/oz, while the lowest was 79.19 USD/oz, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - A significant spending bill amounting to 1.2 trillion USD is expected to be submitted for a vote in the House of Representatives, amidst political turmoil due to President Donald Trump's immigration actions, which may extend the partial government shutdown that began last Saturday [1] - The House Speaker Mike Johnson faces challenges in pushing a bill that has already passed the Senate, which is a product of negotiations between Trump and Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, aimed at funding most federal agencies until September 30 and the Department of Homeland Security until February 13 [1] Group 2 - Following a recent high in silver prices, it appears that silver will consolidate within the range of 80 to 85 USD. A breakthrough above this level could lead to a challenge of 90 USD in the short term [3] - The momentum measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned bearish, with the bears needing to push prices below 80.00 USD to maintain hope of further declines towards the 50-day simple moving average of 75.62 USD [3] - If the bulls can reclaim 90 USD, the next resistance level will be 95 USD, with further bullish attention turning towards 100 USD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment indicators are stable, with rapid fund switching observed, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [4][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicators include various metrics such as industry trading volatility, trading congestion, price-volume consistency, and others, which collectively inform the sentiment direction [2][3]. - As of January 30, the market sentiment indicator value is 2.6, a slight increase from 2.35 the previous week, suggesting a stable sentiment with a bullish bias [4]. - The sentiment structure indicator has fluctuated around the zero axis within the range of [-6, 6] over the past five years, with significant volatility observed in 2023 [3]. Group 2: Sub-indicator Analysis - The industry trading volatility has shown a slight recovery, indicating increased frequency of fund switching between different sectors, while the industry trend indicator has rapidly declined, suggesting growing divergence in short-term industry outlooks [5][18]. - The price-volume consistency indicator remains high, reflecting a strong correlation between market attention and stock price movements, indicating active market sentiment [7]. - The financing balance ratio has slightly increased, indicating that leveraged funds are maintaining a high level of sentiment, with overall investor risk appetite remaining positive [19]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The short-term score for the food and beverage sector has risen significantly, while growth and small-cap styles are currently favored [26]. - The highest short-term scores are observed in the oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals sectors, indicating strong performance in these areas [26][27]. - The average congestion levels are highest in sectors like non-ferrous metals and oil and petrochemicals, while the lowest are in transportation and real estate, suggesting varying levels of market focus and potential risks [32][34].

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading below $75.84, having opened at $80.27 per ounce and reported a decline of 14.37% to $72.49 per ounce, with a high of $87.91 and a low of $72.05 during the session, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver has significantly dropped, suggesting a potential further correction, with the daily RSI falling below 50, indicating weak short-term momentum [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $77.60 and $69.50, while resistance levels are at $88.15 and $94.00, indicating a range-bound market unless a breakout occurs [4] Group 2 - Senator Elizabeth Warren expressed concerns regarding Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, questioning his ability to operate independently from the White House [3] - Warren urged Republican senators to delay Warsh's nomination until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the importance of Fed independence [3]

Group 1 - The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) for spot silver is below 50, indicating it is not in the overbought territory [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brent crude oil futures prices continued to rise, breaking through the resistance level of $67.35, which was the anticipated target in previous analyses [1] Group 1 - The recent price increase is supported by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has previously digested an overbought condition [1] - The primary bullish trend is dominating in the short term, with prices operating along the secondary support line of this trend, further consolidating upward momentum [1]