MPA考核
Search documents
同业自律机制如何影响存单底
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-03-12 05:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the 1-year certificate of deposit (CD) is expected to align with the 1-year MLF marginal interest rate, potentially approaching 1.5% in the future [1][9] - The report discusses the implementation of a self-discipline mechanism for interbank deposits, which will require non-bank interbank demand deposit rates to be included in self-regulation starting from Q1 2025, referencing the 7-day OMO policy rate [7][8] - It is anticipated that the self-discipline mechanism may lead to a reduction in the yields of interbank demand deposits, with an estimated decrease of 5 basis points based on weighted rates [7][8] Group 2 - The report outlines two main pathways through which the self-discipline upgrade will affect the pricing of CDs and short-term bonds: potential outflows of non-bank deposits and a shift in demand towards CDs and short-term bonds due to regulatory changes [8][9] - The pricing anchor for the 1-year CD is expected to be influenced by the 1-year MLF marginal interest rate, with a focus on the relationship between R007, government bonds, and CDs [9] - The liquidity situation in March is expected to remain stable, with credit issuance being moderate and the central bank's support providing a fundamental backing [9]