Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term hold on U.S. stocks, benefiting from potential Fed rate cuts and economic growth, with a projected increase of approximately 3% in the S&P 500 index by year-end and about 9% over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to tariffs and delayed fiscal stimulus, but a rebound is anticipated in 2026, driven by productivity improvements, particularly in the tech sector [1][4]. - The report highlights that non-farm business productivity has rebounded to 2%, with AI expected to gradually enhance overall economic productivity over the next five years [1][5]. - Despite weak labor market data, GDP growth is projected to remain resilient, primarily due to productivity gains rather than labor growth [4][9]. - The report indicates that nominal yields around 5% may pose structural resistance to GDP growth, but economic growth can still be sustained without rising inflation [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The third-quarter GDP growth is estimated at 2.2%, with weak labor market data [1][4]. - The economy is expected to rebound in 2026 as tariff impacts diminish and fiscal policies take effect [1][4]. Labor Market and Productivity - Current employment growth is strong, but the economy is experiencing polarization, with the Fed focusing on labor market conditions and inflation [1][6]. - Productivity improvements are a key highlight, with non-farm business productivity increasing from 1.5% to 2% [4][5]. Stock Market Predictions - Earnings are expected to drive stock prices higher, with the S&P 500 index projected to reach approximately 6,800 points by year-end and 7,200 points in 12 months [10]. - The report recommends focusing on high floating-rate debt companies and economically sensitive small and mid-cap stocks [12][13]. AI and Investment Themes - AI remains a favored investment theme, with a focus on companies that can achieve short-term revenue growth from AI advancements [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring capital expenditure growth among major players, particularly in AI infrastructure [14][15]. China Economic Insights - Despite weak data in July and August, China's GDP growth is still around 5%, driven by production metrics [3][16]. - The Chinese stock market has shown strong performance, with further upside potential anticipated due to limited investment options for households [17]. Future Expectations - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to emphasize innovation and security, with potential high growth targets set by the government [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market sentiment is fragile. The recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.63 and a growth rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1292, with a day - on - day increase of 0.010 and a growth rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.58, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.38%; DR007 is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 0.96%; R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3 months is 1.61, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12% [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple figures about the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [15][17][19]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals It provides figures on bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and local government bond issuance [29]. 4. Spread Overview It includes figures on Shibor interest rate trends, yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) at maturity, cross - period spreads of treasury bond futures, and spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [32][35]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [52][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [57][61]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [64][66]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [71][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rises, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global bond market prioritizes inflation over economic growth when inflation and economic growth diverge, particularly in emerging markets where sensitivity to inflation shocks is higher [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Growth Dynamics - Emerging markets exhibit a pricing logic that favors inflation rather than growth, leading to a short-term spike in financing costs during high inflation, which does not necessarily indicate demand expansion [1]. - The past decade has seen multiple instances of "inflation rising but growth slowing," primarily due to supply-side shocks and weak demand recovery, resulting in a persistent divergence between prices and growth [1]. - The current global scenario is characterized by "high inflation + low growth," exerting continuous pressure on monetary policy, with nominal inflation rigidity and actual growth slowdown coexisting [1]. Group 2: Regional Characteristics of Emerging Markets - Latin American emerging markets, such as Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa, face significant GDP growth declines alongside rising CPI and PPI, forcing central banks to implement aggressive rate hikes [2]. - In contrast, Asian emerging markets like India and Indonesia demonstrate stronger growth resilience and inflation elasticity, with more flexible monetary policies that support growth while managing inflation [2]. - East Asian developed markets, including Japan and South Korea, experience mild stagflation characterized by low growth and moderate inflation, with local policies focusing on financial stability and inflation expectations management [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights a rare phenomenon of "crowded" trading in a volatile market, where trading activity has increased despite stable interest rates and unclear market direction [3][8] - The micro trading sentiment index has risen from 36% to 58% over the past 20 trading days, indicating a significant increase in trading enthusiasm [8][27] - The report questions whether the rising trading heat necessarily indicates valuation imbalance, suggesting that high trading activity does not inherently mean that pricing is unreasonable [5][16] Trading Characteristics - Recent market trading behavior shows a clear warming trend, particularly in two dimensions: consistent duration extension and consistent yield spread compression [4][14] - The market is exhibiting a unified behavior of extending duration, with fund durations rising to high levels and a decrease in the divergence of holding durations [4][14] - There is a notable shift of funds towards less active bonds, leading to a significant increase in their trading volume, reflecting a strong trading willingness despite limited downward space for interest rates [4][14] Valuation Assessment - The report argues that high trading heat does not equate to pricing imbalance, emphasizing that the rationality of interest rate pricing is based on macro fundamentals, liquidity, and policy expectations [5][16] - Current interest rates have not broken previous lows, indicating that the market retains a degree of caution regarding fundamental directions and policy expectations [5][16] - The report's constructed micro trading indicators show significant differences in crowdedness metrics, with trading heat indicators at 63% and pricing matching indicators at only 26%, suggesting that the risk of significant pricing imbalance is manageable [17][24] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Marginal improvements in liquidity provide a foundation for interest rate compression, with a notable decline in funding costs since June [6][19] - The report indicates that the current round of yield spread convergence is not solely due to trading "involution," but is supported by an improved funding environment [6][19] - The relationship between funding prices and economic marginal trends has been highlighted, with a successful signal identification model showing a high success rate in predicting funding rate directions based on PMI data [20][21] Historical Context - The report draws parallels to the 2022 interest rate fluctuation phase, where high trading heat coexisted with reasonable pricing, suggesting that current trading characteristics may not trigger systemic adjustments [27][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Regarding the bond market in July, the report is relatively optimistic and suggests maintaining medium to high durations [3][52][53]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market in July is expected to undergo a transformation from quantitative to qualitative changes, driven by the accumulation of favorable factors in the fundamental, liquidity, and policy aspects, leading to new lows in yields [3][7][52]. - The main risk in the bond market in July is whether the equity market will experience a continuous upward trend. However, as long as the equity market does not rise significantly and continuously, its impact on the bond market may be mainly at the emotional level and may not affect the market trend [3][52]. 3. Summary by Directory Short - term Interest Rates Have Not Fully Priced in Potential Easing - Since June, the funding price has been continuously loose, with DR001 dropping to around 1.35%. However, the performance of short - and medium - term interest rates has been relatively moderate, not fully pricing in potential rate cuts and central bank bond purchases [8]. - The central bank's policy orientation is somewhat unclear due to conflicting policy goals. It has gradually downplayed explanations of liquidity operations, but since March, its policy of prioritizing cost reduction remains unchanged. The funding price in June did not reach the steady - state level within the current policy framework, and further rate declines are expected in July [7][10][12]. - The probability of a rate cut in Q3 cannot be ruled out, but it is likely to occur after August. The funding in July is likely to remain loose. Although the current funding price may be approaching the equilibrium level, it is still necessary to focus on whether DR001 can break through the 1.3% lower limit or the stable state of DR007. As the funding remains loose and the expectation of a Q3 rate cut intensifies, it will drive short - term interest rates lower [3][13][18]. Allocation Demand Is Expected to Be Gradually Released - In June, the demand from allocation players was insufficient, which was the main reason why long - term bonds did not break through significantly. However, factors dragging down allocation demand may gradually fade in July [19]. - From the perspective of banks, the top of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate appeared in early June, and the CD rate continued to decline, indicating that the banks' liability pressure has been significantly relieved. However, banks' willingness to allocate bonds has not significantly increased, which may be affected by the half - year - end factor and the limited returns from allocating long - term bonds in a flat yield curve environment. As the impact of the previous deposit rate cut gradually emerges and short - term interest rates are expected to decline further, banks' allocation willingness is expected to gradually increase after the half - year - end [27]. - Although the central bank did not restart bond purchases in June, the large - scale banks continued to increase their net purchases of short - term bonds in the secondary market. The expectation that this is a precursor to the central bank's bond purchases cannot be refuted, which is expected to bring potential downward pressure on short - term interest rates [30]. - In June, the allocation willingness of insurance institutions and wealth management products for interest - rate bonds was weak, but they increased their allocation of credit bonds and commercial bank perpetual bonds. With the possible further decline in the insurance policy - setting rate in Q3 and the expected decline in wealth management product yields, the constraints on their allocation behavior are expected to ease. If the funding remains loose in July and institutional liability costs continue to decline, allocation demand is expected to be gradually released [31][35]. The Downward Pressure on the Fundamentals May Further Appear in Q3 - Since Q2, the domestic economic momentum has declined, but it still maintains some resilience. The market's expectation of further policy easing has weakened, which is an important reason for the narrow - range fluctuation of long - term interest rates. However, the downward pressure on the fundamentals in Q3 may further emerge [36]. - In terms of exports, although the China - US trade negotiations are ongoing, the probability of a short - term adjustment to the tariff rate is limited. The boost from the front - loading of exports is gradually weakening, and the downward pressure on export growth may increase after July [37]. - In terms of domestic demand, consumption growth may slow down marginally due to the over - consumption in May and the withdrawal of consumption subsidies in June. Real estate investment growth may remain relatively low, and although the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, its increase may be limited. Manufacturing investment growth has also declined since Q2 [39]. - The control of capacity expansion may have a short - term negative impact on economic sentiment if there is no incremental demand. The June manufacturing PMI index, although rising for the second consecutive month, is still below the boom - bust line, and the sub - items reflect that business entities are still cautious about the future situation. If the policy maintains a "supporting but not boosting" tone, the pressure on the fundamentals in Q3 may further increase [47][48]. The Bond Market in July Is Expected to Undergo a Transformation from Quantitative to Qualitative Changes; Pay Attention to the Risk Appetite Changes in the Equity Market - With the accumulation of favorable factors in the fundamental, funding, and policy aspects, the bond market in July is expected to experience a transformation from quantitative to qualitative changes, driving yields to new lows. - As long as the equity market does not rise significantly and continuously, its impact on the bond market may be mainly at the emotional level and may not affect the market trend. The report is relatively optimistic about the bond market in July, expecting the yield curve to continue to steepen downward. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy - bank bonds, long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and 5 - year credit bonds, and to pay attention to old 3 - 5 - year policy - bank bonds and medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds [3][52][53].

金十数据6月6日讯，万众瞩目的美国非农就业报告将于北京时间今晚20:30公布。投行机构已经拉好"衰 退警戒线"。6月按兵不动已成共识，警惕数据重大偏离预期，利率定价恐被颠覆。点击查看更多前瞻… 相关链接 今晚非农"生死局" 降息剧本或将改写 ...