↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 一 、 钱在哪里 ？ 钱卡在了三个地方 。 从下图可以看出 ， 规上工业企业的应收款平均回收期在2015年只有35天 ， 现在则是70天 。 第一 ， 出口企业赚到钱后 ， 有7万亿美元留在海外没有结汇回国 ； 第二 ， 地方政府债务负担重 ， 拖欠了大量工程款 ； 第三 ， 地产和建筑公司由于三条红线 ， 现金流吃紧 。 对任何人来说 ， 现金流才是实打实的 ， 利润表上的利润并不能改变你的体感 ！ 这个账期在2017年以后 ， 就开始逐年抬升 。 这个时间点比较特殊 。 一方面是央行已经不再要求强制结汇 ； 另一方面是棚改货币化带来房地产涨价去库存 。 再往后就是卖地卖不动 ， 地方政府缺少收入来源 。 今年起 ， 每次大型会议 ， 都有 强调尽快解决拖欠企业的欠款 。 只不 ...

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近几年 ， 大家对经济的体感很不好 ， 但GDP依然保持较高的增速 。 这让很多人都质疑GDP的真实性 。 尽管利润有20万 ， 但你还垫付了50万 款项 ， 现金流量表上是负数 。 所以你不但不会扩大消费 ， 反而会勒紧裤腰带过年 。 GDP跟人们的体感就是这样关系 。 我们确实做出了较快的GDP增速 ， 但现金没有收到 。 现金去哪里了呢 ？ 01 不用质疑 ， GDP是真的 ， 体感不好也是真的 。 问题出在哪里呢 ？ 其中一个重要原因就是 账期 ！ 这就好比你今年卖了100万的货 ， 利润是20万 ， 但只收到客户50万的货款 。 问题来了 ， 临近春节 ， 你会愿意消费吗 ？ 钱在哪里 ？ 钱卡在了三个地方 。 第一 ， 出口企业赚到钱后 ， 有7万亿美元留在海外没有 ...

2025年的我国债券市场，在复杂的内外部环境中，清晰地划出了一条"震荡"主线。 临近年末，中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受新华财经专访时指出，全年债券市场呈现出典型的"上有 顶、下有底"区间波动特征。10年期国债收益率在约30个基点的范围内反复波动，未能形成单一趋势方 向。驱动市场的核心力量，已从对宏观面的线性推演，转变为对事件冲击、政策预期及机构行为的复杂 博弈。 "关税扰动"、"反内卷新政"、"央行购债操作"等关键变量分段主导了市场节奏。在这种新生态下，传统 单边策略的有效性下降，捕捉结构性机会与波段行情成为更重要的能力。 博弈的均衡：多空力量如何在震荡中重塑债市逻辑 政策预期的动态调整构成了贯穿全年的核心主线。明明分析指出，从年初央行传递防风险信号，到年中 超预期降准降息，再到四季度重启国债买卖，货币政策的风向变化引导着市场情绪在乐观与谨慎间反复 切换。 作为连接金融与实体经济的血脉，信用债市场的变迁精准映射着经济肌体的活力与风险。 市场正在抛弃简单的"身份标签"，转而深入审视企业自身的"造血能力"。"定价的锚点，正回归到最本 质的经营现金流与偿债保障，"明明还提及，机构负债端的特性差异，进一步刻画了市场 ...

12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率再降25个基点，这是今年9月以来的第三次降息，累计降幅 已达75个基点。 对这次25个基点的降幅，特朗普公开炮轰"力度太小"。更关键的是，5个月后美联储主席将迎来换届， 而特朗普的选人标准只有一个："忠于我的降息主张"。曾被视为热门人选的白宫经济委员会主任哈西 特，即便表态"提前定利率路径不负责任"，也难掩其政策倾向。 这意味着什么？2026年的美联储政策可能彻底"脱锚"，从"看数据降息"转向"看政治降息"。彭博社早已 预警，即便美联储继续降息，美国10年期国债收益率仍在逆势上涨，债券市场用脚投票，担心这种"政 治化降息"最终会引爆通胀。对中国普通人来说，这意味着全球最主要的"钱袋子"可能无序放水，我们 的资产必须提前找好"避风港"。 多数人盯着"25个基点"的数字，却忽略了会议公报里的关键一句："将购买400亿美元短债，维持银行体 系流动性"。这可不是简单的降息，而是"降息+扩表"同时启动——一边降低借钱成本，一边直接往市场 撒钱。 纽约联储已明确，未来30天就会动手买债，明年一季度这种"放水"力度还会保持高位。短期流动性瞬间 泛滥的结果，就是美国长债收益率飙至16 ...

Core Insights - The essence of investment lies in managing risks, with excess returns being a reward for correctly assuming risks [1][2] Group 1: Market Awareness - Investors must maintain humility and respect for the market's unpredictability, which involves abandoning the fantasy of precise predictions and shifting to a responsive approach [1] - The bond market faces significant risks, particularly credit and interest rate risks, necessitating the use of safety margins and strict exit conditions to enhance risk control [2] Group 2: Discipline in Investment - Discipline is crucial in the battle against greed and fear, serving as a protective mechanism to avoid catastrophic losses and gradually realize compound returns [1][3] - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining a stable risk-return profile through active duration management and early detection of credit risks [3] Group 3: Patience and Adaptability - Patience is essential in navigating market volatility, as investors must be prepared to adapt to changing rules while maintaining a long-term investment style [2][4] - The long-term stability of investment styles will be rewarded by the market, as evidenced by the performance of long-duration bond index funds after enduring periods of low interest [2][4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the issuance of long-term bonds in 2025, which is expected to be substantial with an average maturity exceeding 15 years, increasing market pressure [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Pressure from Long-term Bond Issuance** The issuance of long-term bonds is significant, with an average maturity of over 15 years, leading to increased market pressure and limiting the buying capacity of various institutions [1][2][10]. 2. **Impact on City and Rural Commercial Banks** City and rural commercial banks are experiencing reduced funding due to lower deposit rates, which has shifted funds to larger banks and non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to purchase bonds [2][5]. 3. **Insurance Institutions' Shift in Strategy** Insurance institutions are reallocating funds to the stock market in search of higher returns due to a decrease in preset interest rates, resulting in a reduced allocation to long-term bonds [1][5]. 4. **Regulatory Pressure on Large Banks** Large banks are required to conduct stress tests to ensure that their interest rate risk does not exceed 15% of their Tier 1 capital, which limits their ability to absorb long-term bonds [4][6][7]. 5. **Duration Mismatch and Interest Rate Risk** The significant issuance of long-term bonds has led to duration mismatches for large banks, increasing their long-term interest rate risk and limiting their capacity to hold these bonds indefinitely [4][7]. 6. **Short-term Bonds as a Risk Mitigation Strategy** While purchasing short-term bonds can reduce average duration, it does not effectively lower total interest rate risk. The focus should be on total holding size rather than just duration [8]. 7. **Fund Selling Pressure** Funds are the primary sellers of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds due to fee reforms, prior duration extension behaviors, and redemptions of mixed products, which could further release interest rate risk [11]. 8. **Potential Market Issues** If the current market conditions persist, there could be significant issues, particularly with ultra-long bonds, as they concentrate interest rate risk. Solutions include reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds or increasing market demand for long-term products [12]. 9. **Future Issuance Plans** The issuance plans for ultra-long bonds are closely tied to project funding and are unlikely to change despite market absorption capacity issues. Adjustments in issuance pace may occur, but overall supply and maturity structure are expected to remain stable [13]. 10. **Bank Capital Supplementation** Addressing bank capital to manage interest rate risk is a long-term planning issue, with options including ownership increases or issuing secondary bonds, which may further increase market supply [14]. 11. **Central Bank's Role** Direct purchases of ultra-long bonds by the central bank are not seen as a viable solution for managing interest rate risk due to existing liquidity management constraints [15]. 12. **Market Sentiment** The bond market should not be viewed as simply bullish or bearish; rather, it should be assessed based on the participation of configuration plates. Current conditions suggest a challenging environment for long-term bonds [16]. 13. **Configuration Value of Ultra-long Bonds** The configuration value of ultra-long bonds is uncertain, particularly for 30-year bonds, as there is no clear demand for them at present [17]. 14. **Asset-Liability Gap Concerns** Recent announcements regarding significant repurchase operations indicate banks' attempts to stabilize metrics, but this may not lead to a decrease in deposit rates [18]. 15. **Investment Strategy Adjustments** The recommended investment strategy is to maintain low leverage and adopt a barbell structure, focusing on short-term instruments and specific mid-term bonds while being cautious with long-term positions [19]. Other Important Content - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring total holding sizes and the implications of regulatory requirements on banks' bond purchasing strategies, emphasizing a cautious approach in the current market environment [1][4][6][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after a period of adjustment, the equity market has resumed its upward trend, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year [2][10][11] - The market's overall performance has not shown signs of decline despite recent fluctuations, with trading volume remaining above 2 trillion yuan, reflecting strong short-term market sentiment [2][10][11] - Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as recovering PPI data and strong core CPI, along with stable industrial output and retail sales, have provided a solid foundation for market growth [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of core sectors, particularly in the context of a structural market rally driven by performance expectations in the technology innovation sectors [3][11][13] - It suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending continued investment in strong concepts within the innovation sectors like chips and robotics while also considering defensive positions in metals and gold [5][14] - The report highlights that the current market environment remains favorable for strong sectors, with liquidity at high levels and a lack of negative factors in the medium to long term [3][11][14] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing a decline as funds flow into equities, making it less attractive for investors, with a recommendation to consider flexible short-term bonds to hedge risks [6][36] - In the commodity market, gold stands out as a strong performer amidst a generally volatile environment, with ongoing central bank purchases reinforcing its investment appeal [7][37] - The report advises maintaining gold positions in the short term while adopting a wait-and-see approach for the medium to long term [8][38]

Core Viewpoint - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for traditional investment products, prompting investors to seek alternatives that balance safety, liquidity, and returns [5][6][7]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Major banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1%, leading to a search for "deposit alternatives" among investors [5][6]. - The low interest rate trend is expected to persist, affecting the returns of traditional stable products like bank deposits and money market funds [6][7]. - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation to balance risk and return, utilizing strategies like "fixed income plus" to enhance yields [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified strategy is essential, focusing on high-quality credit bonds and interest rate bonds as core assets, complemented by equities and convertible bonds for yield enhancement [6][9]. - Investors should consider low-volatility fixed income products, which typically have a maximum drawdown of less than 2%, making them suitable for short-term idle funds [7][8]. - The use of AI and quantitative tools is recommended to improve risk management and enhance investment flexibility in a low interest rate environment [6][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - In an "asset scarcity" environment, investors should prioritize safety, yield, and liquidity through diversified and dynamic asset allocation [9][10]. - A balanced portfolio should include stocks, bonds, and commodities, utilizing strategies like risk parity and dynamic balancing to optimize risk-return profiles [9][10]. - High-quality, stable dividend-paying stocks are attractive in a low interest rate environment, while growth stocks should be selectively included for potential higher returns [10][11]. Group 4: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing increased volatility, with a need for investors to balance safety margins and yield flexibility [11][17]. - The outlook for the bond market is neutral, with short-term assets showing higher certainty and long-term assets gradually revealing comparative advantages [17]. - Credit risk in the bond market is expected to decrease, providing opportunities for investment in high-rated credit bonds [11][17].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation, particularly for investors with a risk rating of around 4 stars, suggesting that there are still undervalued stock assets available for investment [2][5]. - It recommends a stock-to-bond allocation ratio based on the formula "100 - age," indicating that a 40-year-old should allocate approximately 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds [3][5]. - The article notes that if the market rises, the stock portion can yield good returns, while if the market falls, there is still an opportunity to increase positions when the rating reaches 5 stars [4][5]. Group 2 - After determining the stock-bond ratio, the next step is to select assets, highlighting that there are generally undervalued stocks available for investment, such as actively selected stocks and certain value-style indices within index funds [6]. - It discusses three main types of bond funds: short-term bonds, long-term pure bonds, and fixed income plus, with a note that long-term pure bonds are currently not undervalued, while short-term bonds are expected to have low volatility and overall growth by 2025 [8]. - The article suggests a simple investment option like "monthly salary treasure," which has already diversified stock and bond assets, making it suitable for investors at the 4-star rating stage [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which may indicate a shift in market sentiment and expectations towards inflation rather than deflation [1][9][31]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, with long-term bonds experiencing the most notable drops [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures dropped by 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, and closed at a new low since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article discusses the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, where falling prices lead to rising yields, indicating a decrease in demand for bonds [12][13]. - The current bond market's unpopularity suggests a shift in investor sentiment, moving away from bonds towards equities, which is often seen as a normal reaction during bullish stock market conditions [15][18]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The article posits that the recent bond market weakness is not solely due to the typical stock-bond relationship but is indicative of a broader change in market fundamentals [19][26]. - The transition from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted, with the market's expectations shifting towards higher economic growth and inflation [31][34]. - Recent CPI data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [36]. Group 4: External Influences - The article notes that external factors, such as increased foreign investment and supportive government policies, are contributing to the changing dynamics in the capital market [42][43]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to alleviate liquidity issues and support the transition from deflation to inflation trading [46]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is expected, with trading dynamics favoring inflationary strategies [48][49]. - The current high interest in the stock market and the declining bond market may become a new norm, suggesting significant potential for further stock market gains [50].