Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is affected by multiple factors. In the port area, the geopolitical situation in Iran is an important variable for the methanol market. Currently, the total inventory pressure at Chinese methanol ports is high, dragging down the port basis, and there are maintenance expectations for MTO units, which may weaken the future de - stocking expectations. In the inland area, coal - based methanol maintains high - level operations, and the inventory of inland factories is in a continuous recovery cycle, while the traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as spreads between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][26] 3. Methanol开工, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) is presented through charts [6][32][41] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences, such as the difference between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][38][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port inventory of methanol remains high, and the expected reduction in arrivals due to previous Iran sanctions has not materialized. The delay in Iran's winter maintenance announcement is the main driver of the methanol price decline. Recently, there are expectations of Iran's plant maintenance, and the market's expectation of the delayed implementation of Iran's winter maintenance has warmed up [3]. - The inventory in the inland region has rebounded again. The mainstream CTO enterprises have started to show purchasing intentions at low prices. The coal - based methanol production rate has further increased in November, and the inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand for inland MTO has decreased, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Overall, the inland region is also in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the degree of support for the port remains to be observed [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis vs. methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][21][23] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][34] 3. Methanol Production Rate, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated ones) is presented through figures [35][37][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][50][53] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][57] Market News and Important Data Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 560 yuan/ton (+13). Inner Mongolia north - line methanol is 1965 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 424 yuan/ton (-14); Inner Mongolia south - line methanol is 1950 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi methanol is 2170 yuan/ton (+10), with a basis of 229 yuan/ton (-16); Henan methanol is 2020 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 79 yuan/ton (-36); Hebei methanol is 2075 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of 194 yuan/ton (-36). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 386,410 tons (+10,350), and the northwest factory inventory is 232,500 tons (+1,200). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 221,093 tons (+5,535), and the northwest factory pending orders are 124,500 tons (+10,900) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2082 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 59 yuan/ton (-26); CFR China is 241 US dollars/ton (-3), and the East China import price difference is - 31 yuan/ton (+2). Changzhou methanol is 2275 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2107 yuan/ton (+2), with a basis of - 34 yuan/ton (-24). Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,517,100 tons (+10,630), Jiangsu port inventory is 821,500 tons (-2,800), Zhejiang port inventory is 200,000 tons (+27,000), and Guangdong port inventory is 297,000 tons (-7,000). The downstream MTO production rate is 90.19% (-0.24%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 90 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 433 yuan/ton (-13), the Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 338 yuan/ton (-10); the Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 12 yuan/ton (+10); the Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 155 yuan/ton (+2); the East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 283 yuan/ton (+25) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]