Group 1 - TJX Cos forecasts annual sales and profit below Wall Street estimates due to budget-conscious consumers reducing discretionary spending amid macroeconomic uncertainty [1] - The company expects annual comparable sales to rise between 2% and 3%, lower than analysts' average estimate of 3.5% growth [1] - TJX anticipates earnings per share for fiscal 2027 to be between $4.93 and $5.02, compared to analysts' average estimate of $5.18 per share [1] Group 2 - TJX reported quarterly revenue of $17.74 billion, exceeding analysts' average estimate of $17.36 billion [1] - The company faces margin pressures as economic challenges impact its core customer base, primarily lower-income shoppers, leading to smaller basket sizes and softer demand [1]

Bitcoin was last down more than 2% at $65,836.68 at 9:40 a.m. ET.The token traded as low as $64,830 early as it continued a nearly 5% slide that began a day earlier. Over the weekend, that decline brought the digital asset to $64,324 at its nadir, marking its lowest level since Feb. 6 when it hit $60,062.The world's oldest cryptocurrency has taken a dive, particularly as geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties spark investors' flight from risk-on investments. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump said ...

Core Insights - Gas and electricity prices remained elevated on average throughout the year due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The increase in gas and electricity prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Macroeconomic uncertainty has also contributed to the higher average prices of gas and electricity [1]

Core Insights - JetBlue reported a wider loss and lower revenue in the fourth quarter, indicating a challenging operating environment due to macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue during the fourth quarter, reflecting the adverse effects of the current economic conditions [1] - The reported loss was greater than anticipated, highlighting the financial pressures faced by the airline [1]

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown significant performance in 2025, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) achieving a 62% gain, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally [1] - The rally is driven by structural factors, notably central bank purchases, rather than retail sentiment or inflation concerns [3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks purchased 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, totaling 254 tonnes year-to-date, indicating a strategic shift in reserves rather than opportunistic trading [3] - Poland added 16 tonnes to its reserves, while Brazil continued its buying trend, highlighting ongoing institutional interest [3] Market Signals - Monitoring central bank statistics is crucial; a slowdown in purchases from emerging markets could indicate waning confidence, while increased buying from new entrants would reinforce demand [4] - The Federal Reserve's guidance has also influenced gold prices, with forecasts suggesting gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to persistent demand and macroeconomic uncertainty [5] Investment Alternatives - The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) offers a lower-cost alternative to GLD, with a 0.25% expense ratio compared to GLD's 0.40%, resulting in better long-term returns for buy-and-hold investors [6] - GLD's larger asset base of $141 billion compared to IAU's $32 billion makes it more suitable for large or frequent trades [6] Future Outlook - The key macro factor for GLD's performance in the next 12 months is whether central bank buying remains above 50 tonnes monthly [7]

Core Insights - Dollar General Corp. reported strong third-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations and raising its full-year outlook, indicating improved profitability and steady demand from budget-conscious consumers [1][2][3] Third-Quarter Results - Adjusted EPS was $1.28, surpassing the estimate of $0.91 and the FactSet consensus of $0.95 [2] - Operating margin increased by 82 basis points to 4.0%, while gross margin rose by 107 basis points to 29.9%, supported by lower shrinkage and higher markups [3] - EBIT dollars increased by 31.5% to $426 million despite a 25 basis point deleverage in SG&A to 25.9% due to various costs [3] Sales and Traffic Momentum - Sales grew by 4.6% to $10.7 billion, with comparable store sales (comps) increasing by 2.5%, driven entirely by a 2.5% rise in traffic [4] - The average ticket remained stable, as higher unit retail prices offset a decrease in items per basket [4] Guidance and Financial Levers - Dollar General raised its 2025 EPS guidance to a range of $6.30–$6.50, up from $5.80–$6.30, and increased sales growth guidance to 4.7%–4.9% [7] - The company plans to pay down $550 million of 2027 debt, which is expected to lower interest expenses and add approximately 9 cents to EPS [7] - There are 4,885 planned real estate projects for 2025 and an expansion of delivery services across various platforms [7] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman raised the 12-month price target for Dollar General to $130 from $123, maintaining a Market Perform rating [1][8] - Other analysts also raised their forecasts, with Jefferies increasing its target to $142 and UBS to $143 [9] Stock Performance - Dollar General shares were down 0.21% at $132.09 during premarket trading, close to its 52-week high of $135.08 [10]

Central Banks' Gold Purchases - Central banks purchased a net 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, marking a 36% month-over-month increase and the highest monthly total of the year [1][2] - Year-to-date through October, central banks acquired 254 tonnes of gold, making 2025 the fourth-highest year for gold accumulation this century, indicating concerns about economic stability and currency diversification [2][3] Leading Countries in Gold Accumulation - The National Bank of Poland led the purchases with 16 tonnes in October, raising its reserves to a record 531 tonnes, which constitutes about 26% of its total foreign exchange reserves [3] - Brazil also bought 16 tonnes, while Uzbekistan added 9 tonnes and Indonesia acquired 4 tonnes; other countries like Turkey, the Czech Republic, and the Kyrgyz Republic expanded their holdings by 2 to 3 tonnes each [3] Future Expectations and Trends - 95% of surveyed central banks expect their reserves to increase next year, with Serbia planning to nearly double its gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2030, and Madagascar and South Korea considering similar expansions [4] - The sustained demand for gold persists despite high prices, underscoring its strategic importance during uncertain economic times [4] Digital Asset Diversification - The trend of diversifying reserves is extending to digital assets, with Bitcoin being considered as a potential complement to gold [5] - In the United States, Senator Cynthia Lummis indicated that funding for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could commence anytime, following President Trump's executive order designating Bitcoin as a national reserve asset [6]

Core Insights - The 2025 holiday season is expected to be divided into two distinct segments, influenced by varying consumer spending behaviors based on income levels [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income individuals are likely to have a decent holiday season, with average salaries rising between 4.5% and 6.7% depending on job stability [2] - The top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumer spending, while the remaining 90% are expected to spend less due to high credit card debt and economic uncertainty [5][6] - Retail sales growth is projected at 4% for the holiday season, but much of this increase will be due to inflation rather than volume, leading to relatively flat real spending [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales growth between 2.9% and 3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% and the 10-year average of 5.2% [8] - The economic landscape is characterized by high inflation, tariffs, and uncertainty, impacting consumer confidence and spending [8][9] Group 3: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses, which rely heavily on holiday sales for revenue, may face challenges unless they cater to affluent demographics or are located in wealthier areas [10][11] - The disparity in consumer behavior suggests that while some businesses may thrive, others will struggle due to reduced spending from lower-income consumers [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corporation experienced a stock price increase following strong third-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, prompting analysts to raise their price forecasts [1][2]. Earnings Snapshot - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 10 cents, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of 20 cents [2]. - Quarterly revenue reached $3.41 billion, exceeding the Street's estimate of $3.32 billion [2]. Guidance and Expectations - Kohl's raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.25–$1.45 from a previous range of 50–80 cents, compared to the consensus estimate of 71 cents [3]. - The company anticipates a net sales decline of 3.5% to 4% [3]. - Management expects the macroeconomic environment to remain uncertain, with consumers becoming more selective and value-driven, especially among low-to-middle-income groups during the holiday season [4]. Analyst Views - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey maintained a Market Perform rating and increased the price forecast from $16 to $23 due to stronger results and positive business momentum [5]. - The company achieved a third consecutive top- and bottom-line beat for fiscal 2025, with comparable sales improving by 250 basis points sequentially, marking the strongest performance since post-pandemic 2021 [5]. - CEO Michael Bender was named permanent CEO, which is expected to provide continuity and leadership for the company's recovery strategy [6]. Strategic Positioning - The company is well-positioned to capture holiday demand with improved inventory, stronger value assortments, expanded Sephora offerings, and broader promotions aimed at increasing traffic [7]. - Analysts project fiscal 2025 net sales to decline 3.7% year-over-year to $14.81 billion, an improvement from a previous estimate of a 5.3% decline [8]. - Fiscal 2025 EPS is now expected to be $1.42, up from $0.67, while fiscal 2026 EPS has been raised to $1.46 from $0.79 [8]. Market Sentiment - Kohl's has a short float of 29.29 million shares, representing 36.75% of its publicly traded float, indicating a high level of short interest from investors betting on further downside [9]. - At the time of publication, Kohl's shares were up 6.07% at $23.78, reaching a new 52-week high [9].

Core Insights - Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced significant withdrawals, totaling $2 billion, as investors reacted to rising macroeconomic uncertainty [1] - BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, recorded a single-day withdrawal of $463.1 million on November 14, marking a notable event in the market [1] - The overall assets under management for digital asset ETPs decreased from a peak of $264 billion in early October to $191 billion, reflecting a 27% decline [3] Market Dynamics - The recent wave of redemptions has led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs, contributing to a total of $3.2 billion in outflows over three consecutive weeks [2][3] - The U.S. was the primary contributor to global outflows, accounting for 97% of the total, approximately $1.97 billion, while Switzerland and Hong Kong followed with $39.9 million and $12.3 million in redemptions, respectively [4] - In contrast, Germany saw inflows of $13.2 million, as investors viewed price weakness as a buying opportunity [5] Future Outlook - ETF flows are expected to remain closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with potential outflows influenced by negative economic indicators and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance [5] - Conversely, positive developments regarding tariffs, regulatory frameworks, and monetary policy could lead to improved market sentiment and a potential price reversal [6]