Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown significant performance in 2025, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) achieving a 62% gain, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally [1] - The rally is driven by structural factors, notably central bank purchases, rather than retail sentiment or inflation concerns [3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks purchased 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, totaling 254 tonnes year-to-date, indicating a strategic shift in reserves rather than opportunistic trading [3] - Poland added 16 tonnes to its reserves, while Brazil continued its buying trend, highlighting ongoing institutional interest [3] Market Signals - Monitoring central bank statistics is crucial; a slowdown in purchases from emerging markets could indicate waning confidence, while increased buying from new entrants would reinforce demand [4] - The Federal Reserve's guidance has also influenced gold prices, with forecasts suggesting gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to persistent demand and macroeconomic uncertainty [5] Investment Alternatives - The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) offers a lower-cost alternative to GLD, with a 0.25% expense ratio compared to GLD's 0.40%, resulting in better long-term returns for buy-and-hold investors [6] - GLD's larger asset base of $141 billion compared to IAU's $32 billion makes it more suitable for large or frequent trades [6] Future Outlook - The key macro factor for GLD's performance in the next 12 months is whether central bank buying remains above 50 tonnes monthly [7]

Core Insights - Dollar General Corp. reported strong third-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations and raising its full-year outlook, indicating improved profitability and steady demand from budget-conscious consumers [1][2][3] Third-Quarter Results - Adjusted EPS was $1.28, surpassing the estimate of $0.91 and the FactSet consensus of $0.95 [2] - Operating margin increased by 82 basis points to 4.0%, while gross margin rose by 107 basis points to 29.9%, supported by lower shrinkage and higher markups [3] - EBIT dollars increased by 31.5% to $426 million despite a 25 basis point deleverage in SG&A to 25.9% due to various costs [3] Sales and Traffic Momentum - Sales grew by 4.6% to $10.7 billion, with comparable store sales (comps) increasing by 2.5%, driven entirely by a 2.5% rise in traffic [4] - The average ticket remained stable, as higher unit retail prices offset a decrease in items per basket [4] Guidance and Financial Levers - Dollar General raised its 2025 EPS guidance to a range of $6.30–$6.50, up from $5.80–$6.30, and increased sales growth guidance to 4.7%–4.9% [7] - The company plans to pay down $550 million of 2027 debt, which is expected to lower interest expenses and add approximately 9 cents to EPS [7] - There are 4,885 planned real estate projects for 2025 and an expansion of delivery services across various platforms [7] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman raised the 12-month price target for Dollar General to $130 from $123, maintaining a Market Perform rating [1][8] - Other analysts also raised their forecasts, with Jefferies increasing its target to $142 and UBS to $143 [9] Stock Performance - Dollar General shares were down 0.21% at $132.09 during premarket trading, close to its 52-week high of $135.08 [10]

Photo by BeInCrypto Central banks purchased a net 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, a 36% month-over-month surge that brought the monthly total to the highest of the year. This aggressive gold accumulation reflects growing concerns over macroeconomic uncertainty and a strategic shift away from traditional dollar-denominated assets. Record Gold Purchases Signal Strategic Shift According to World Gold Council data, central banks purchased a net 53 tonnes of gold in October alone—the highest monthly deman ...

Core Insights - The 2025 holiday season is expected to be divided into two distinct segments, influenced by varying consumer spending behaviors based on income levels [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income individuals are likely to have a decent holiday season, with average salaries rising between 4.5% and 6.7% depending on job stability [2] - The top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumer spending, while the remaining 90% are expected to spend less due to high credit card debt and economic uncertainty [5][6] - Retail sales growth is projected at 4% for the holiday season, but much of this increase will be due to inflation rather than volume, leading to relatively flat real spending [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales growth between 2.9% and 3.4%, significantly lower than last year's 4.2% and the 10-year average of 5.2% [8] - The economic landscape is characterized by high inflation, tariffs, and uncertainty, impacting consumer confidence and spending [8][9] Group 3: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses, which rely heavily on holiday sales for revenue, may face challenges unless they cater to affluent demographics or are located in wealthier areas [10][11] - The disparity in consumer behavior suggests that while some businesses may thrive, others will struggle due to reduced spending from lower-income consumers [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Kohl's Corporation experienced a stock price increase following strong third-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, prompting analysts to raise their price forecasts [1][2]. Earnings Snapshot - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 10 cents, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of 20 cents [2]. - Quarterly revenue reached $3.41 billion, exceeding the Street's estimate of $3.32 billion [2]. Guidance and Expectations - Kohl's raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.25–$1.45 from a previous range of 50–80 cents, compared to the consensus estimate of 71 cents [3]. - The company anticipates a net sales decline of 3.5% to 4% [3]. - Management expects the macroeconomic environment to remain uncertain, with consumers becoming more selective and value-driven, especially among low-to-middle-income groups during the holiday season [4]. Analyst Views - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey maintained a Market Perform rating and increased the price forecast from $16 to $23 due to stronger results and positive business momentum [5]. - The company achieved a third consecutive top- and bottom-line beat for fiscal 2025, with comparable sales improving by 250 basis points sequentially, marking the strongest performance since post-pandemic 2021 [5]. - CEO Michael Bender was named permanent CEO, which is expected to provide continuity and leadership for the company's recovery strategy [6]. Strategic Positioning - The company is well-positioned to capture holiday demand with improved inventory, stronger value assortments, expanded Sephora offerings, and broader promotions aimed at increasing traffic [7]. - Analysts project fiscal 2025 net sales to decline 3.7% year-over-year to $14.81 billion, an improvement from a previous estimate of a 5.3% decline [8]. - Fiscal 2025 EPS is now expected to be $1.42, up from $0.67, while fiscal 2026 EPS has been raised to $1.46 from $0.79 [8]. Market Sentiment - Kohl's has a short float of 29.29 million shares, representing 36.75% of its publicly traded float, indicating a high level of short interest from investors betting on further downside [9]. - At the time of publication, Kohl's shares were up 6.07% at $23.78, reaching a new 52-week high [9].

Core Insights - Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced significant withdrawals, totaling $2 billion, as investors reacted to rising macroeconomic uncertainty [1] - BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, recorded a single-day withdrawal of $463.1 million on November 14, marking a notable event in the market [1] - The overall assets under management for digital asset ETPs decreased from a peak of $264 billion in early October to $191 billion, reflecting a 27% decline [3] Market Dynamics - The recent wave of redemptions has led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs, contributing to a total of $3.2 billion in outflows over three consecutive weeks [2][3] - The U.S. was the primary contributor to global outflows, accounting for 97% of the total, approximately $1.97 billion, while Switzerland and Hong Kong followed with $39.9 million and $12.3 million in redemptions, respectively [4] - In contrast, Germany saw inflows of $13.2 million, as investors viewed price weakness as a buying opportunity [5] Future Outlook - ETF flows are expected to remain closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with potential outflows influenced by negative economic indicators and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance [5] - Conversely, positive developments regarding tariffs, regulatory frameworks, and monetary policy could lead to improved market sentiment and a potential price reversal [6]

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) reported positive volume growth in Q3 2025, with total volumes increasing by $1.55 billion, contributing 10% to revenue growth, marking a significant recovery from previous declines [1][5] - The recovery was broad-based, with Energy & Transportation leading the increase at $870 million, followed by Construction Industries at $568 million and Resource Industries at $138 million [2][10] - Prior to this growth, CAT faced prolonged weakness, with Construction Industries experiencing seven consecutive quarters of volume declines and Resource Industries eight [3][4] Volume and Revenue Trends - In 2024, CAT experienced a total volume decline of $3.5 billion, followed by a further decline of $1.1 billion in Q1 2025, primarily due to sluggish end-market demand and significant dealer inventory reductions [4] - The company anticipates strong year-over-year sales growth in Q4 2025, supported by improved volumes across all segments, projecting volume growth of 4.7% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026 [6][10] Industry Context - Competitors like Terex Corporation and Komatsu Ltd. have also faced challenges, with Terex experiencing seven straight quarters of negative organic growth and Komatsu expecting a flat to 5% decline in demand for construction, mining, and utility equipment in fiscal 2025 [7][8] - Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties affecting the industry, CAT's return to volume growth represents a meaningful shift in momentum [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - CAT shares have gained 52.6% year-to-date, slightly underperforming the industry growth of 55.7% [9] - The current forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio for CAT is 25.96X, compared to the industry average of 24.75X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 16.03% for 2025, with a revenue increase of 2%, while 2026 estimates show an 18.4% growth in earnings and a 7.7% rise in revenues [12]

Core Viewpoint - Cava Group has revised its full-year sales growth targets downward due to stagnant foot traffic in Q3, reflecting a trend of consumers cutting back on fast casual dining amid financial pressures [1] Company Summary - Cava CFO Tricia Tolivar indicated that despite the financial strain on consumers, the chain is becoming more accessible to lower-income customers, which has led to an increase in sales in that demographic [1] - The discussion on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily highlighted the company's growth strategy in the context of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $138 million, a decline of 7% compared to the same period last year [10] - SG&A expenses were reduced by 7%, amounting to $48 million, maintaining SG&A as a percentage of sales at 35% [11][12] - EBITDA for the quarter was $7.5 million, up sequentially from $6.1 million but down from $11.7 million year-over-year [13] - Net income was $2.7 million, an increase from $1.6 million in the previous quarter but down from $5.4 million in the same quarter last year, resulting in earnings per diluted share of $0.18 [13][14] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Branded products segment revenue was $85 million, down from $93 million year-over-year, impacted by order timing and lower sales volume [10][11] - Healthcare apparel revenue declined by 5% to $32 million due to lower volume amid customer uncertainty [10][11] - Contact center revenue decreased by 9% to $23 million, driven by lower volume and customer downsizing [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall market remains uncertain, affecting customer behavior and order placements across all segments [4][18] - There is a significant level of caution among customers, leading to promising near-term opportunities in the pipeline as trade policies and economic conditions stabilize [4][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding market share in a fragmented market by recruiting more sales representatives and leveraging software automation [6] - Investments are being made in demand-driven activities while maintaining expense discipline to navigate economic uncertainties [8][15] - The company is actively exploring acquisition opportunities, particularly in the branded products segment, to enhance growth [42][44] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the growth environment is subdued, the pipeline remains strong, and they are focused on converting these opportunities [15] - The company is optimistic about future growth as economic uncertainty dissipates, allowing for the capture of additional market share [15] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to pass through cost increases to customers, maintaining pricing power despite economic challenges [30][32] Other Important Information - The company tightened its full-year revenue outlook to a range of $560 million to $570 million, indicating slight growth year-over-year at the high end of the range [14] - The balance sheet remains strong with $17 million in cash and cash equivalents, providing over $100 million in liquidity for growth plans [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you describe the environment for branded products? - Management indicated that the market has been challenged due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, but recent tariff announcements are seen as positive [18][19] Question: Where are you in working off the inventory purchased in advance? - The company has been opportunistic in sourcing inventory from lower tariff jurisdictions and has communicated with clients about inventory management [22][23] Question: What is the impact of losing a client in the contact center? - The annualized impact from the lost client is about a couple of million dollars, but there are opportunities for growth in the pipeline [26] Question: Can you talk about your pricing power? - The company has been able to pass through cost increases to customers, maintaining pricing power despite economic pressures [30][32] Question: What are your expectations for revenue growth in Q4? - Revenue growth is expected to be primarily driven by the branded products segment, with strong bookings and a robust pipeline [34][40] Question: What are the acquisition opportunities currently? - The company sees a rich field for acquisitions, particularly in the branded products segment, and is actively evaluating potential deals [42][44]

Core Viewpoint - E-commerce firm eBay has forecasted lower-than-expected profits for the upcoming holiday quarter due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to an 8.5% drop in its shares after the announcement [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - eBay reported third-quarter revenue of $2.82 billion and adjusted profit of $1.36 per share, both exceeding Wall Street estimates of $2.73 billion and $1.33 per share respectively [3]. - For the fourth quarter, eBay forecasts adjusted earnings between $1.31 and $1.36 per share, which is below analysts' average estimate of $1.39 per share, while revenue is expected to be between $2.83 billion and $2.89 billion, above the estimate of $2.79 billion [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Challenges - The company continues to face macroeconomic challenges across international markets, with increased headwinds for cross-border trade into the U.S. [2]. - The U.S. has ended de minimis tariff exemptions for parcel imports, impacting online marketplaces like eBay, particularly affecting sellers in Japan and Canada [4][5]. - Concerns over rising prices for imported goods and changes in customs requirements have negatively impacted consumer confidence [1]. Group 3: Market Trends - There has been a deceleration in year-over-year volume growth starting in September in key markets importing into the U.S. following the removal of the de minimis exemption [3]. - An increase in demand for bullion and collectible coins has been observed, attributed to rising commodity prices for precious metals, although this trend may not be sustainable [4].