Core Viewpoint - BofA Securities analyst Robert F. Ohmes maintains a Buy rating on Dollar General Corp, increasing the price target from $100 to $115, anticipating positive financial results for the fiscal 2025 first quarter [1]. Financial Performance - Dollar General is expected to report an adjusted EPS of $1.40 for Q1, with comparable sales projected to rise by 1% [1]. - Real-time sales data indicates an acceleration in sales for the quarter, suggesting potential upside compared to current estimates [2]. Operational Insights - Profit gains from reduced shrink are expected to be offset by pressures from store remodel activities and labor costs, with approximately $20 million in expenses related to store closures [3]. - Margin performance is anticipated to improve progressively throughout the year [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expected to benefit from trade-in programs that will support comparable sales and mitigate spending fluctuations among core customers, with adoption gaining traction [4]. - Despite concerns over Walmart's stronger comp performance, Dollar General's significant price gaps, digital expansion momentum, and ongoing store closures at competitors are seen as supportive factors [5]. Market Activity - Dollar General shares are currently trading higher by 1.25% at $101.90 [6].

KE Holdings (BEKE US) Buy: Increasing confidence in margin recovery Neutral results, positive long-term guidance: KE Holdings (Beike) reported 42% y-o-y growth in revenue and 6% non-GAAP net profit margin in 1Q25, higher than its guidance but largely within market expectation. We see the results as unsurprising, but we take comfort from management's willingness to guide a recovery in its profitability. Indeed, the expectation of flattish secondary home GTV and 10% y-o-y growth in primary home GTV for 2Q25 l ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter GAAP earnings per common share were $0.47 while distributable earnings were a loss of $0.09 per common share [15] - Net interest income declined to $14.6 million, primarily due to the movement of non-core assets to nonaccrual status [15] - Book value per share remained flat at $10.61, with total leverage declining to 3.5 times [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total CRE loan portfolio was bifurcated into $5.9 billion core loans and $1.2 billion non-core loans [7] - Core portfolio payoffs resulted in a 5% decline to $5.9 billion, with 78% concentration in multifamily [8] - Non-core portfolio was reduced by 6% to $740 million, with expectations to further reduce it to approximately $270 million in the second quarter [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The multifamily sector showed resilience with a 1% increase in rents in Q1 2025 despite macroeconomic pressures [5] - The twelve-month default rate for the SBA business was 3.2%, slightly better than the industry average of 3.4% [12] - Freddie Mac volume was down in Q1 due to tightened processes, with a more robust pipeline expected in Q2 [58] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company initiated a balance sheet repositioning plan in Q4 2024, focusing on liquidating non-core assets to reinvest in the core portfolio [14] - The strategy aims to restore net interest margin (NIM) to peer group levels by 2025, with accretion expected in 2026 [14] - The company remains committed to supporting the Portland mixed-use asset project, aiming for stabilization and eventual exit of components [11][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the recovery in the commercial real estate (CRE) market is affected by tariffs and recession risks, but the multifamily sector remains strong [5] - The company expects to maintain its current dividend level until the earnings profile warrants an increase [14] - Management expressed confidence in navigating the shifting policy landscape in the SBA business, despite anticipated moderation in volume [12][51] Other Important Information - The company completed the UDF merger, generating a bargain purchase gain of $102.5 million, which added $167.1 million of equity to the balance sheet [17] - Liquidity remains healthy with unrestricted cash over $200 million and $1 billion of total unencumbered assets [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of April's volatility on non-core book expectations - Management indicated that ongoing conversations with various parties are progressing well and do not expect material diversion from pricing or timing expectations [23][24] Question: Near-term expectations for distributable earnings trajectory - Management highlighted that the repositioning of assets is a key catalyst for future earnings improvement, with expectations for a gradual upward trend post-liquidation [30] Question: Current views on share repurchases versus liquidity - Management is balancing the benefits of share repurchases with the need to maintain liquidity given upcoming debt maturities [31] Question: Catalyst for CLO interest coverage issues - Management noted that elevated rates are impacting NOIs, leading to increased modifications and stress within CLOs [39] Question: Status of the Portland asset and future plans - Management confirmed that the asset is currently levered and will remain so, with plans to stabilize and sequentially exit components as they improve [43][44] Question: Expected moderation in SBA volumes - Management anticipates SBA volumes to be below the $1.5 billion mark for at least a couple of quarters due to policy changes and administrative delays [52]

Investment Rating - The industry view for China Materials is rated as Attractive [6] Core Insights - Cement is preferred due to supply discipline, price coordination, lower costs, and no impact from trade wars. The building materials sector is recovering from improved secondary property sales [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing margin expansion and has formed new alliances to focus on profit rather than volume. A 5-10% year-over-year decline in demand is expected, but margin recovery is anticipated due to lower coal prices and effective supply control measures [2][3] - Late-cycle building materials are recovering, supported by better secondary home sales and government initiatives. However, demand remains soft due to declining property starts and completions [3] - The float glass segment is facing weak fundamentals, with low demand from property developers and high supply levels continuing to pressure earnings [4] Summary by Sections Cement - Major cement players have agreed to prioritize profit over market share, leading to a healthier price recovery despite weak property demand. The industry is expected to see a margin recovery due to lower coal prices and effective supply control policies [2] - Top producers like Conch, CNBM, and CR Cement are likely to benefit from new supply control measures aimed at reducing overproduction [2] Building Materials - The late-cycle building materials sector is expected to see mild growth in new infrastructure and industrial investments, with demand improving from better secondary home sales and government programs [3] - Companies such as Yuhong, Weixing, and Lesso are identified as potential beneficiaries of this recovery [3] Float Glass - The float glass market is currently weak, with low order days at processing plants and high supply levels continuing to exert pressure on earnings [4] Price Targets and Ratings - Price targets for key companies include Anhui Conch (A) at RMB 37.40 with a 47% upside, Anhui Conch (H) at HKD 29.80 with a 35% upside, and China Resources Building Materials at HKD 2.30 with a 39% upside [7][11] - Ratings for companies in the cement sector are predominantly Overweight (OW), while Xinyi Glass and Zhuzhou Kibing Glass are rated Underweight (UW) due to weak fundamentals [11][12]

Centene (CNC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 25, 2025 03:39 PM ET Company Participants Jennifer Gilligan - Senior Vice President, Finance & Investor RelationsSarah London - CEOAndrew Asher - Executive VP & CFOA.J. Rice - Managing DirectorDave Windley - Managing DirectorAndrew Mok - DirectorLance Wilkes - Managing DirectorJohn Stansel - VP - Equity ResearchMichael Halloran - Associate Director of Research Conference Call Participants Joshua Raskin - Research AnalystJustin Lake - Analyst - Healthcare ServicesAnn ...