With options expiration now behind us, markets could face their own storm. Roughly $15 billion in T-bill settlements are due on February 24, followed by another $22 billion on February 26. In addition, coupon settlements of $37 billion on February 27 and $59 billion on March 2 are scheduled. That totals approximately $130 billion that could be absorbed by the Treasury over the next week. Net Settlement On top of that, cross-currency basis spreads have moved modestly this past week. I tend to view the JPY 5- ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has largely remained unfazed by President Trump's latest tariff increases, with investors questioning the long-term implications of these measures and viewing them as potential negotiating tactics rather than significant policy shifts [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - Asian stocks showed a positive trend, safe-haven assets remained stable, and the U.S. dollar index decreased by approximately 0.3% [2]. - The yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury remained relatively unchanged, while gold prices increased by about 1% [2]. Tariff Details - The new tariffs have been raised to 15% from the previously announced 10%, following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated earlier tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [3][4]. - The new tariffs under Section 122 are seen as a temporary measure, replacing the invalidated tariffs while maintaining existing duties under Sections 301 and 232, which target steel, autos, and China [4]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that investors should adopt a patient approach, as no trade policy statement from Trump is considered durable [5][6]. - The market has learned to view Trump's tariff announcements as temporary and often subject to change, leading to a sentiment of "noise" rather than significant concern [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The tax legislation from the previous year is believed to have established a stimulative fiscal policy that could mitigate any negative impacts from the tariffs [9]. - With midterm elections approaching, there is speculation that trade issues may become less of a political focus, potentially leading to a reduction in tariff-related tensions [9]. Risk Management - Some analysts recommend reducing exposure to U.S. equities in favor of global companies that are less affected by U.S. trade fluctuations [10]. - Persistent uncertainty surrounding tariffs could hinder global trade and corporate planning, complicating the market outlook [11]. Cryptocurrency Impact - Bitcoin experienced a decline of over 5%, reflecting its volatility as a high-beta liquidity asset rather than a traditional safe haven [11]. - The cryptocurrency has been on a downward trend since October, with a 26% decrease in value this year and a 47% drop since its peak [12].

Company Overview - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a significant player in the fast-casual dining sector, focusing on fresh ingredients and customizable menu options [1] - The company competes with other fast-casual chains like Qdoba and Moe's Southwest Grill, having carved out a substantial market share [1] Financial Performance - Chipotle's recent earnings call revealed that the company narrowly exceeded earnings estimates, indicating resilience despite challenges [2] - The company has faced declining customer traffic for the fourth consecutive quarter, yet it continues to demonstrate strategic resilience [2][4] - Chipotle's market capitalization is approximately $52.53 billion, with a trading volume of 32.3 million shares on the NYSE [3] Stock Performance - The stock price has seen a slight increase of 1.73%, trading between $37.83 and $39.21 on the day of reporting [2][3] - Over the past year, the stock has experienced significant volatility, with a high of $59.19 and a low of $29.75 [3] - Chris O'Cull from Stifel Nicolaus set a price target of $45 for CMG, suggesting a potential upside of 14.87% from its current trading price of $39.18 [1][5]

Group 1: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - Defense contractors, particularly RTX Corp., experienced a decline in stock prices due to an executive order banning excessive CEO compensation, large dividends, and stock buybacks [3][4]. - RTX shares fell 2.5% on January 7, with the iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense ETF also declining by 1.5% on the same day [5]. - Both RTX and the ETF have since recovered their losses, with RTX up 4.5% from its January 7 close, reaching a 52-week high of $197.55 on January 13 [6]. Group 2: Broader Market Trends - The S&P 500 Index experienced a significant drop of 10.5% following the announcement of tariffs in April 2025 but later recovered, ending 2025 with a 17.3% gain and showing a 1.73% increase in early 2026 [7][8]. - The resilience of stocks suggests that investors should remain patient and avoid hasty decisions during market fluctuations [9]. Group 3: Regulatory and Political Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation, which has implications for financial institutions as it relates to interest rate policies [10]. - President Trump's proposal to lower credit card interest rates to 10% for a year has negatively impacted credit card companies, with Synchrony seeing a decline of 10.2% since January 9 [10].

Core Insights - Copart, Inc. is a leading provider in the online vehicle auction and remarketing services industry, primarily operating through a virtual auction platform [1] - The company reported strong financial performance in its Q1 2026 earnings report, despite a lower price target set by Barclays [2][6] Financial Performance - Copart's revenue for Q1 2026 reached $1.16 billion, reflecting a slight year-over-year increase, with a 2.9% growth when excluding catastrophic events [3][6] - Gross profit increased by 4.9% to $537 million, resulting in a gross margin improvement of 184 basis points to 46.5% [3][6] - The earnings per share for Q1 2026 was $0.41, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.50% [5][6] Market Dynamics - The company achieved record-high average selling prices (ASPs) for US insurance carriers, with global ASPs increasing by 6.8% and US insurance ASPs by 8.4% [4] - Auction liquidity improved, with international buyers purchasing vehicles valued 38% higher than those bought by US buyers [4] - The US Non-Insurance business saw a 5.3% increase in dealer unit sales [4] Strategic Investments - Despite a 6.7% decrease in global units sold, Copart continues to invest in technology and infrastructure [5] - The Purple Wave platform experienced a gross transaction value growth of over 10%, outperforming the broader industry [5]

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Overview - Bitcoin is down over 3% at the start of November, with long-term holders selling over 400,000 bitcoin in October, representing about 2% of circulating supply [1] - The market structure for bitcoin is more mature compared to previous cycles, with demand from DATs and ETFs absorbing available supply [1] - Despite the resilience shown by bitcoin, the market remains fragile, with potential for further downside without positive macro catalysts [1] Group 2: Ethereum Market Dynamics - Ethereum has experienced a more significant decline, trading down nearly 8% on the day, attributed to thin liquidity and fewer buyers [2] - Perpetual futures funding rates for Ethereum have been near flat or negative since October 10th, indicating a bearish market sentiment [2] - Significant open interest in puts below $3,700 on Deribit suggests traders are preparing for further market drawdown, with increasing positions below the $3,000 level for November 28th expiries [2]

Government Shutdown Impact - The government has been shut down for 34 days, marking the second-longest shutdown in history [1] Market Performance - Markets are reaching new all-time highs [1]

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Markets are near record highs and have been on an upward trajectory since post "liberation day" lows [1] - Seasonal factors suggest a potentially strong market run between now and Thanksgiving [2][5] - A substantial amount of money market cash, almost $4 trillion, remains on the sidelines, presenting both opportunity and risk [4] - Investors' unease and the "wall of worry" can sometimes drive markets higher [6] - Sticking with winning tech stocks is a viable strategy, but periodic profit-taking and volatility should be expected [8] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The market anticipates the Fed will likely hedge its bets due to incomplete economic data, potentially leading to another rate cut this year [9] - Recent CPI data was encouraging, rising as expected but less than anticipated [10] - Private data from companies like Blackstones, credit card companies (Visa), and Bookingcom provides valuable insights [11][12] Earnings Season & Company Performance - The current earnings season has been impressive, with strong margin stories [3] - Companies have been running more resilient, leaner, and meaner, potentially due to tariffs [3] - Earnings are coming in very strongly, with 87% beating on earnings and 83% on revenues, exceeding the 5 and 10-year averages [9]

Core Insights - Carlyle Group's CEO Harvey Schwartz emphasizes that credit should be a concern in the late economic cycle, indicating potential vulnerabilities in the market [1][2] - Despite concerns regarding credit underperformance, Schwartz notes that the markets are showing resilience [1] Group 1 - Schwartz identifies the current economic phase as "very late cycle," suggesting that any news could disrupt the market [2] - He highlights that there has not been a recession-driven credit cycle for a long time, which justifies the current concerns about credit performance [2]