The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker has a bright future.ASML's (ASML +1.72%) stock has roughly doubled over the past 12 months. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker attracted significant attention as a long-term play on the growth of the AI market, since its lithography systems are essential for producing the top AI chips. However, I believe ASML's stock could soar even higher this year for three simple reasons.1. It's a "picks and shovels" play for the AI infrastructure marketASML is the world's lar ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 January 2026 Memory Market Update HBM model update; structural HBM shortage until 27E; Samsung to positively surprise with HBM4 J P M O R G A N HBM is entering its 4th year of an upcycle since 23, and reflecting the demand upside from H200 GPU and ASIC demand, we forecast HBM S/D to structurally remain in a shortage until 27E with HBM TAM showing a 79% CAGR from 24A- 27E. HBM value as a % of AI capex/revenue continues to inch up, implying the criticality of HBM and memory to ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Memory Market Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **memory industry**, particularly **DRAM** and **HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)** solutions, as discussed during the **SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Memory Executive Summit** [1] Key Insights 1. **Long-term Growth Prospects**: - Positive outlook on long-term DRAM growth driven by: - Increasing custom silicon needs for next-gen HBM solutions - Enhanced power savings contributions - Development of emerging memory solutions (CXL, PIM, Z-NAND, CUBE) - New memory solutions for edge AI applications - Pathfinding to higher capacity through hybrid copper bonding [1] 2. **Custom HBM's Role**: - Transition from passive to active memory solutions, with custom HBM (cHBM) becoming integral to AI infrastructure design - Memory makers are focusing on tailored features and processing capabilities to meet diverse customer needs - Collaboration with foundries and supply chain partners is emphasized [1] 3. **Power Consumption and AI**: - AI's explosive power consumption is leading to a critical role for HBM in total cost of ownership (TCO) savings - Datacenter power consumption is projected to rise from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.0% by 2030, with AI servers expected to account for 65% of datacenter power consumption by 2030, increasing 56 times compared to 2023 [7] - Memory makers are addressing design challenges to meet power-saving requirements, with SKH highlighting the importance of higher stack and bandwidth [7] 4. **Emerging Memory Solutions**: - Memory makers are targeting the commercialization of emerging memory solutions for specific applications - Notable developments include Samsung's LPD5X-PIM and SEC's SOCAMM2, which offers a 70% smaller form factor compared to DIMM [12] 5. **AI Inferencing Growth**: - Shift from AI training to AI inferencing is expected to drive growth in edge AI hardware, with a projected 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching a total addressable market of $50 billion [12] - Memory suppliers are preparing advanced edge AI solutions for market adoption in the next 2-3 years [12] 6. **Hybrid Bonding Solutions**: - Increasing commitment to hybrid bonding solutions in HBM, with expectations of higher layer stacking and better thermal resistance [15] - SKH has completed HBM4 development, supporting speeds of 10Gb/s+, ahead of competitors [15] 7. **Investment Recommendations**: - Memory shares have risen 27% in the last month, driven by strong AI demand and improved pricing expectations for conventional memory [15] - The memory sector's risk-reward profile is viewed favorably over the next 6-12 months, with SKH and SEC recommended as top picks [15] Additional Important Points - The report highlights the importance of R&D investment in hybrid bonding technology and the expected impact of HBM4 qualification on pricing negotiations [15] - The ongoing strength in AI demand is anticipated to maintain tight supply-demand conditions until new capacity expansions begin in 2027 [15]