Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in memory prices, particularly DDR4 and NAND, driven by supply constraints, persistent demand, and market panic, indicating a structural shift in the memory industry towards new technologies like DDR5 and HBM [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Memory Market Overview - The article provides an overview of the memory market in 2023, highlighting the significant price increases in DDR4 and NAND due to various factors [2]. DDR4 Price Surge - DDR4 prices have surged due to a substantial reduction in supply and unchanged demand, exacerbated by market panic and structural adjustments in the industry [3]. - Major manufacturers like Micron and Samsung have announced the end of life (EOL) for DDR4, leading to a drastic cut in supply, with effective production capacity for DDR4 decreasing significantly [3][4]. - Demand for DDR4 remains strong in specific sectors, particularly among North American internet companies and AI-driven businesses in China, with a year-on-year increase in AI server demand of 60%-70% [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Price Dynamics - Market panic has intensified as news of supply shortages spread, leading to hoarding behavior among distributors and a rapid increase in prices, with some DDR4 modules exceeding the prices of DDR5 [5][6]. - The price increase is attributed to a combination of reduced supply, persistent demand, and market fear of shortages, indicating a transitional phase in the industry from older technologies to newer ones [6]. OpenAI and Strategic Partnerships - OpenAI has formed strategic partnerships with Samsung and SK Hynix to support its AI data center project, which aims to significantly increase DRAM procurement [7]. - OpenAI plans to purchase up to 900,000 wafers of DRAM monthly by 2029, which is nearly half of the projected global DRAM capacity by the end of 2025 [8]. NAND Market Insights - The NAND market is experiencing a resurgence due to new demand from AI applications, which require high-speed and high-capacity storage solutions [13][14]. - The shift from HDD to NAND-based solutions is expected to drive further demand, with predictions of significant growth in the NAND market driven by AI-related applications [14][15]. Domestic Memory Companies - Company D is focusing on enterprise SSDs, with significant order growth expected, particularly from major clients like Alibaba and ByteDance [19][20]. - Company J has introduced innovative products tailored for AI data centers and is seeing rapid growth in its self-developed controller chips [22][23]. - Company Z is experiencing strong demand across its product lines, with a focus on DRAM and industrial applications, and plans for an IPO to support its AI and global strategies [25][27].

| 地点 | 深圳市前海深港合作区南山街道听海大道 5059 号鸿荣源前 | | --- | --- | | | 海金融中心二期 座 B 2301 | | 上市公司接待人 | 副总经理、董事会秘书 许刚翎 | | | 投资者关系经理 黄琦 | | 员姓名 | 投资者关系资深主管 苏阳春 | | | 1、如何展望存储价格的涨幅弹性？ | | | 答：根据第三方媒体报道，9 月以来，继闪迪公开宣布 | | | 涨价之后，美光向渠道通知存储产品即将上涨 20%-30%，三 | | | 星通知大客户 LPDDR4X、LPDDR5/5X 协议价格预计上涨 | | | 15%-30%以上，eMMC/UFS 协议价格预计涨幅 5%-10% | | | 根据 CFM 闪存市场预测，全球 AI 服务器市场新增 DRAM | | | 和 NAND 备货需求下半年相继涌现，进一步带动原厂产能供 | | | 应向高性能服务器存储产品倾斜，在超预期的服务器存储新 | | | 增需求带动下，原厂全面转向以利润指标为核心的供应策 | | | 略，四季度存储市场价格将迎来全面上涨。 | | 投资者关系活动 | 2、如何看待公司企业级产品导入 ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Memory Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Global Memory Market**, particularly the **semiconductor** sector, highlighting the increasing demand for memory driven by data center compute needs and the AI boom [3][38]. Key Insights 1. **Memory Market Growth**: - The memory Total Addressable Market (TAM) is expected to grow by **6%-24%**, reaching approximately **$300 billion** by FY27E, primarily driven by High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and new applications like SOCAMM2 and GDDR7 [3][38]. - The **DRAM pricing upcycle** is anticipated to last from **2024 to 2027**, marking an unprecedented four-year cycle [3][55]. 2. **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)**: - HBM value share is projected to account for **43%** of the DRAM market by **2027** [3][55]. - The blended HBM Average Selling Price (ASP) is expected to rise in FY26E, supported by a **35% pricing premium** for HBM4 [3][39]. - HBM TAM is forecasted to reach **$90 billion** by FY27E, with a tight supply-demand balance expected throughout the year [3][39]. 3. **NAND Market Dynamics**: - NAND pricing is expected to increase by **7%** in FY26E due to recovering demand and HDD shortages [4][40]. - The transition from HDD to eSSD is becoming more prevalent, particularly for AI applications, which is expected to drive NAND demand [4][40]. 4. **Capex and Capacity Expansion**: - Memory capital expenditures (capex) are projected to rise by **7%-12%** in FY26-27E to meet increasing demand [5][41]. - DRAM capacity expansion is prioritized over NAND due to better economic prospects associated with HBM [5][41]. 5. **Stock Performance and Valuation**: - Memory stocks have surged, with the top three memory makers valued at **$734 billion** in 2025E, with potential upside to **$1 trillion** based on historical trading multiples [6][54]. - Current stock valuations are seen as slightly above forward-looking revenue, indicating potential for further growth [6][54]. 6. **AI Demand Impact**: - AI applications are expected to represent over **50%** of DRAM TAM by 2027E, with HBM being a significant contributor [28][38]. - The demand for memory is broadening across all applications, necessitating upgrades to lower latency and more efficient memory solutions [8][38]. Additional Considerations - The memory market is experiencing a **structural shift** due to the increasing importance of HBM and AI applications, which may not align with historical memory cycle patterns [55]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies like SK Hynix (SKH) positioned favorably for HBM4 qualifications, while SEC and Micron (MU) are expected to compete for market share [3][56]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan conference call regarding the global memory market, emphasizing growth prospects, pricing dynamics, and the impact of AI on memory demand.

Group 1: Market Trends and Price Forecasts - Micron has announced a price increase of 20%-30% for storage products, while Samsung expects a 15%-30% increase for DRAM products and a 5%-10% increase for NAND products in Q4 [3] - The NAND market is anticipated to see increased demand due to the expansion of AI server shipments and new smartphone releases, leading to a comprehensive price rise in the storage market [3] Group 2: Company Product Performance and Recognition - The company ranks third in total capacity for enterprise-grade SATA SSDs in China, and first among domestic brands, according to IDC data for 2024 [3] - The company’s enterprise-grade PCIe SSD and RDIMM products have begun mass adoption by leading domestic enterprises [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Product Development - The company has launched SOCAMM2, a memory product designed for AI data centers, which offers significant improvements in bandwidth and energy efficiency [3] - The company’s self-developed main control chips have achieved over 80 million units in deployment by the end of July, with ongoing rapid growth in deployment scale [4] Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Edge - The company’s UFS4.1 products are recognized for their superior performance in terms of process, read/write speed, and stability compared to mainstream products [4] - The transition from eMMC to UFS in the embedded storage market presents significant opportunities for the company, as the market is currently concentrated and expanding [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - Hongchang Technology (301008) experienced a nearly 34% increase in stock price last week, driven by institutional interest in its humanoid robot business [1][7] - The company invested 30 million yuan in Liangzhi Joint Technology Co., holding a 30% stake, with applications in collaborative robots, humanoid robots, robotic dogs, and wolves [3] - Other companies like Meilixin also saw significant stock price increases, with a rise of over 22%, indicating a broader interest in the humanoid robot sector [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The humanoid robot index rose over 2% last week, reflecting growing institutional enthusiasm for the sector [1] - Nearly 40% of companies that participated in institutional research achieved positive returns, with several companies, including Hongchang Technology, seeing stock price increases of over 30% [4] - The storage chip market is experiencing a price surge, with SanDisk announcing over a 10% price increase and Micron pausing product pricing, driven by supply-demand dynamics and increased capital expenditures in AI [5] Group 3: Industry Insights - Companies like Demingli are focusing on domestic storage product development to meet the growing demand from data centers and cloud computing, with expectations of continued price increases in the storage market [5] - Aviation and automotive sectors are also under scrutiny, with companies like AVIC Chengfei discussing military trade product interest and BYD emphasizing collaboration across the supply chain [6] - The introduction of eSIM technology by companies like Unisoc highlights advancements in telecommunications, particularly in AI and 5G applications [6]

Group 1: Institutional Research Trends - A total of 433 companies disclosed institutional research minutes from September 15 to 19, indicating a rising enthusiasm for institutional research [2] - Nearly 40% of the companies under institutional research achieved positive returns, with Hongchang Technology's stock price increasing by over 30% during the week [2] - Other companies such as Demingli, Guangdong Hongda, Meilixin, Mona Lisa, and Tempus also saw stock price increases exceeding 20% [2] Group 2: Robotics Industry Insights - Hongchang Technology reported a nearly 34% increase in stock price, driven by interest in its humanoid robot business, with the humanoid robot index rising over 2% [4] - Meilixin, which saw a stock price increase of over 22%, emphasized its focus on the robotics sector and its ability to develop components in sync with customer needs [4] - Other companies like Shuanghuan Transmission, Fujia Shares, Shiyun Circuit, and Yuhua Tian also provided updates on their robotics-related business developments [4] Group 3: Storage Chip Market Dynamics - The global storage chip market is experiencing a price surge, with SanDisk announcing a price increase of over 10% for its products, followed by Micron's decision to pause pricing for several products [5] - Demingli noted that storage prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, capacity shifts, and rising demand, particularly from AI investments, predicting continued price increases in Q4 [6] - Jiangbolong also forecasted a comprehensive price rise in the storage market for Q4, highlighting its enterprise-level storage products designed for AI data centers [6] Group 4: Industry Leaders and Market Trends - Aviation company AVIC Chengfei reported increased attention on its military trade products since May, with ongoing market promotion efforts and potential refinancing plans to support future growth [7] - In the automotive sector, BYD reiterated its commitment to enhancing collaboration across the supply chain and optimizing payment management, with a decrease in accounts payable turnover days expected [7] - Unigroup Guowei announced its successful launch and mass production of eSIM products, aligning with the "AI + 5G + eSIM" integration trend [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing enthusiasm of institutional research, with 433 companies disclosing research minutes, and nearly 40% of these companies achieving positive returns [2] - Among the companies, Hongchang Technology saw a significant stock price increase of nearly 34% due to its humanoid robot business attracting institutional attention [3][5] - The humanoid robot index rose over 2% last week, indicating a growing interest in the robotics sector [3] Group 2 - Hongchang Technology invested 30% equity in a joint venture, contributing 30 million yuan to enhance its capabilities in collaborative robots and humanoid robots [5] - Meilixin also experienced a stock price increase of over 22%, focusing on the demand and changes in the robotics field, ensuring technological preparedness for customer needs [5] - Other companies like Shihuan Transmission and Fujia Co. also reported significant stock price increases related to their robotics business developments [5] Group 3 - The global storage chip market is experiencing a price surge, with SanDisk announcing over a 10% price increase, and Micron pausing multiple product quotes [6] - Demingli indicated that storage prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics and increased capital expenditures by leading tech firms, predicting a continued upward trend in storage prices in Q4 [6] - Jiangbolong also anticipates a comprehensive price increase in the storage market, highlighting its SOCAMM2 product designed for AI data centers [6] Group 4 - Leading companies in various industries remain a focal point, with AVIC Chengfei discussing its military trade products and plans for refinancing to support high-quality development [7] - BYD emphasized its collaborative efforts across the supply chain to optimize management and reduce turnover days for payables [7] - Unigroup Guowei announced its successful launch of eSIM products, aligning with the "AI+5G+eSIM" integration trend [7]

Group 1: Institutional Research and Stock Performance - A total of 433 companies disclosed institutional research minutes this week, indicating a rising enthusiasm for institutional research [1] - Nearly 40% of the companies that were researched achieved positive returns, with Hongchang Technology's stock price increasing by over 30% [1] - Other companies such as Demingli, Guangdong Hongda, Meilixin, Mona Lisa, and Tianpu shares saw stock price increases exceeding 20% [1] Group 2: Robotics Sector Insights - Hongchang Technology's stock surged nearly 34% this week, driven by interest in its humanoid robot business, with the humanoid robot index rising over 2% [1] - Meilixin also experienced a significant increase of over 22%, emphasizing its focus on the robotics sector and the ability to develop components in sync with customer needs [2] - Other companies like Shihuan Transmission, Fujia Shares, and Shiyun Circuit also reported on their robotics-related business developments during institutional research [2] Group 3: Storage Chip Market Trends - The global storage chip market is experiencing a price surge, with SanDisk announcing a price increase of over 10% for its products, followed by Micron's decision to pause pricing for several products [2] - Demingli noted that storage prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, capacity shifts, and emerging demand, with expectations for continued price increases in Q4 [3] - Jiangbolong also predicted a comprehensive price increase in the storage market for Q4, highlighting its enterprise-level storage products designed for AI data centers [3] Group 4: Industry Trends and Developments - Aviation company AVIC Chengfei reported increased attention on its military trade products since May, with ongoing market promotion efforts and potential refinancing plans to support future growth [4] - In the automotive sector, BYD reiterated its commitment to enhancing collaboration across the supply chain and optimizing payment management, with a decrease in accounts payable turnover days expected [4] - Unigroup Guowei announced its successful launch and mass production of eSIM products, aligning with the "AI+5G+eSIM" integration trend [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Semiconductors - **Focus**: Transition from SOCAMM1 to SOCAMM2 by Nvidia, impacting memory supply dynamics Core Insights 1. **Nvidia's Transition**: Nvidia has shifted from SOCAMM1 to SOCAMM2, collaborating with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron for product sampling. Commercialization of SOCAMM2 is expected to begin in early 2026 [2][5] 2. **Projected Demand Surge**: SOCAMM demand is projected to increase 5.4 times year-over-year, reaching approximately 27 billion 1Gb equivalent units in 2026, up from 5 billion in 2025. This surge is attributed to the adoption of SOCAMM in VR200 systems [5][12] 3. **Impact on Memory Supply**: The anticipated increase in SOCAMM demand is expected to exacerbate the existing commodity memory supply shortage, with SOCAMM demand projected to account for 7% of total DRAM demand and 32% of total mobile DRAM demand by 2026 [5][12] 4. **Performance Specifications of SOCAMM2**: SOCAMM2 features a data transfer speed of 8,533 MT/s, which is 33% faster than general server DRAM (6,400 MT/s). It also has an I/O count of 128, double that of standard server DRAM [4][9] 5. **Beneficiaries of SOCAMM2**: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are expected to be the primary beneficiaries of the SOCAMM2 rollout, alongside other related companies such as Simmtech, ISC, and Hana Micron [5][12] Additional Important Information 1. **Technical Advantages**: SOCAMM2 offers improved interface capabilities and higher power efficiency compared to traditional server memory modules, making it suitable for advanced applications [3][4] 2. **Market Valuation**: Target prices for Samsung and SK Hynix are set at W110,000 and W430,000 respectively, based on a sum-of-the-parts methodology and projected EBITDA for 2026 [12][14] 3. **Risks to Target Prices**: Potential risks include delays in HBM shipment approvals, weaker-than-expected PC sales, aggressive competition in the memory semiconductor market, and currency fluctuations impacting earnings [13][15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on the transition to SOCAMM2 and its implications for memory supply and market dynamics.

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Memory Market Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **memory industry**, particularly **DRAM** and **HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)** solutions, as discussed during the **SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Memory Executive Summit** [1] Key Insights 1. **Long-term Growth Prospects**: - Positive outlook on long-term DRAM growth driven by: - Increasing custom silicon needs for next-gen HBM solutions - Enhanced power savings contributions - Development of emerging memory solutions (CXL, PIM, Z-NAND, CUBE) - New memory solutions for edge AI applications - Pathfinding to higher capacity through hybrid copper bonding [1] 2. **Custom HBM's Role**: - Transition from passive to active memory solutions, with custom HBM (cHBM) becoming integral to AI infrastructure design - Memory makers are focusing on tailored features and processing capabilities to meet diverse customer needs - Collaboration with foundries and supply chain partners is emphasized [1] 3. **Power Consumption and AI**: - AI's explosive power consumption is leading to a critical role for HBM in total cost of ownership (TCO) savings - Datacenter power consumption is projected to rise from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.0% by 2030, with AI servers expected to account for 65% of datacenter power consumption by 2030, increasing 56 times compared to 2023 [7] - Memory makers are addressing design challenges to meet power-saving requirements, with SKH highlighting the importance of higher stack and bandwidth [7] 4. **Emerging Memory Solutions**: - Memory makers are targeting the commercialization of emerging memory solutions for specific applications - Notable developments include Samsung's LPD5X-PIM and SEC's SOCAMM2, which offers a 70% smaller form factor compared to DIMM [12] 5. **AI Inferencing Growth**: - Shift from AI training to AI inferencing is expected to drive growth in edge AI hardware, with a projected 21% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching a total addressable market of $50 billion [12] - Memory suppliers are preparing advanced edge AI solutions for market adoption in the next 2-3 years [12] 6. **Hybrid Bonding Solutions**: - Increasing commitment to hybrid bonding solutions in HBM, with expectations of higher layer stacking and better thermal resistance [15] - SKH has completed HBM4 development, supporting speeds of 10Gb/s+, ahead of competitors [15] 7. **Investment Recommendations**: - Memory shares have risen 27% in the last month, driven by strong AI demand and improved pricing expectations for conventional memory [15] - The memory sector's risk-reward profile is viewed favorably over the next 6-12 months, with SKH and SEC recommended as top picks [15] Additional Important Points - The report highlights the importance of R&D investment in hybrid bonding technology and the expected impact of HBM4 qualification on pricing negotiations [15] - The ongoing strength in AI demand is anticipated to maintain tight supply-demand conditions until new capacity expansions begin in 2027 [15]