Global Memory Tech Top-5 checkpoints for 2026 memory super- cycle and stock ideas Price Objective Change 1. 2026 super-cycle: similar to 1990s, DRAM sales up 51% Global memory sales are expected to hit new highs in 2026 (DRAM US$196bn, +51% YoY; NAND US$114bn, +45%) even after 2024-25 upturn. ASP hike (DRAM +33% YoY / NAND +26%) should be the key contributor rather than bit growth (+14% / +15%). We also assume 10%+ sales growth in 2027. This is an exceptionally longer upturn due to AI and similar to 1992-95 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with target prices raised to KRW123,000 and KRW540,000 respectively [34][5]. Core Insights - The memory market is expected to enter an unprecedented super-cycle, driven by significant investments from US Big Tech in AI and traditional servers, leading to a substantial increase in memory demand by 2026 [1][4]. - Demand for traditional server-related memory, such as DDR4 and DDR5, is projected to grow by around 50% in 2026, while enterprise SSD demand is expected to nearly double [2]. - Operating profit margins for commodity DRAM are anticipated to recover to levels approaching 70% by 2026, while NAND margins are expected to reach 30-40% [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The memory market is poised for a super-cycle, with substantial investments continuing into 2027 and 2028, followed by a likely downturn in 2028 [4]. - US Big Tech's capital expenditures are projected to increase significantly, with a 30% year-on-year growth expected in 2026 [13]. Demand Projections - Traditional server investments declined by 30% year-on-year in 2023 but are expected to grow by 20-30% in 2026 [2]. - Demand for enterprise SSDs, which account for approximately 40% of total NAND demand, is projected to grow by over 100% in 2026 due to strong storage needs from both traditional and AI data centers [2]. Profitability Forecasts - Samsung's operating profit is projected to reach KRW90 trillion in 2026 and KRW130 trillion in 2027, with a significant increase in target price reflecting this growth [5]. - SK Hynix is expected to achieve operating profit of KRW72 trillion in 2026 and KRW88 trillion in 2027, with a 50% increase in target price [5]. Competitive Landscape - Samsung is expected to have the highest relative capacity flexibility among memory manufacturers, with significant production scaling capabilities at its Pyeongtaek fabs [4]. - The entry of Samsung into Nvidia's HBM market is considered highly probable, which could enhance its competitive position [30].

Global memory Global Markets Research EQUITY: MEMORY Unprecedented super-cycle DRAM, HBM, and NAND triple super-cycle in 2026F US Big Tech's investments in both AI and conventional servers to boost 2026F memory demand; commodity DRAM/NAND OPM to reach historical high in 2026F OPM for commodity DRAM, currently at 40-50%, appears capable of recovering to levels approaching its previous peak of 70% (in 2017) by 2026F. We expect NAND operating margins, currently at break-even levels, to enter a boom phase, with ...