电子 电子行业年度策略 领先大市-A(维持) 2026 年 3 月 24 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 首选股票 评级 关注产业链投资机会-【山证电子】专题 报告 2025.7.14 【山证电子】AI 增长持续投入，华为鸿 蒙折叠PC开启PC形态革命-山西证券电 子行业周跟踪 2025.5.22 傅盛盛 执业登记编码：S0760523110003 邮箱：fushengsheng@sxzq.com 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 存储进入超级周期。AI 训练侧万亿级参数量需要大容量高带宽存储支 撑，推理侧多模态输入与 KV 缓存消耗大量存储空间，服务器配套 HBM 与 高速 eSSD 成为标配。供给端受 2022 年半导体下行周期影响，存储厂商资本 开支保守，三星、美光等巨头退出利基产能转向高毛利领域，HBM 受 3D 堆 叠工艺壁垒制约供给弹性不足，2026 年供需比例将进一步下滑至 7%，DRAM 受 HBM 挤占影响短缺持续演进，NAND 向更高堆叠层数迁移存在资本与工 艺爬坡压力制约。受投产谨慎、良率约束及业务结构调整三因素叠加影响， 存储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The computer storage devices industry is experiencing a downturn due to concerns over AI trade and geopolitical conflicts, but long-term growth is expected driven by AI, cloud computing, IoT, and other technologies [2][3]. Group 1: Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - WDC is benefiting from strong demand in data centers and high-capacity HDDs, reflecting its ability to meet the needs of the AI-driven data economy [5][6]. - The company anticipates a client refresh cycle driven by generative AI, boosting storage demand across various sectors [7]. - WDC expects non-GAAP revenues of $3.2 billion (+/- $100 million) for the fiscal third quarter, representing a 40% year-over-year increase [9]. - The short-term average price target for WDC indicates a potential increase of 29.8% from its last closing price of $245.25, with a maximum upside of 79.4% [12]. Group 2: Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) - STX is also witnessing strong demand due to cloud and AI, with a strategy focused on balancing performance and cost efficiency [13]. - The company has strong demand visibility through long-term contracts, with high-capacity nearline production booked through 2026 [14]. - STX expects revenues of $2.9 billion (+/- $100 million) for the fiscal third quarter, indicating a 34% year-over-year improvement [17]. - The short-term average price target for STX suggests a potential increase of 32.4% from its last closing price of $352.80, with a maximum upside of 98.3% [20]. Group 3: Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) - SNDK is benefiting from the shift towards AI computing, which requires more NAND flash storage, leading to a favorable demand environment [21]. - The company reported a 76% year-over-year increase in datacenter revenues, driven by adoption from cloud hyperscalers [22]. - SNDK expects revenues between $4.4 billion and $4.8 billion for the third quarter, with gross margins projected to expand to 65-67% [24]. - The short-term average price target for SNDK indicates a potential increase of 32.9% from its last closing price of $527.33, with a maximum upside of 89.6% [26].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Memory Chipmakers' Outlook**: Memory chipmakers reported low impact from the Middle East crisis, with demand for DRAM and NAND remaining strong, exceeding current production levels. [1] - **Negotiations on ASP**: Active negotiations on long-term agreements (LTA) are ongoing, fixing multiple years' average selling prices (ASP). [1] - **Geographical Production**: Over 95% of memory chips are fabricated in Asia, utilizing localized materials, with equipment sourced from Asia, the US, and Europe, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. [1] - **Macro Risks**: Concerns exist regarding potential weaker IT/server demand if the Middle East crisis persists long-term. [1] - **Earnings Outlook**: Memory chipmakers are optimistic about their earnings for Q1 and Q2, anticipating higher ASPs compared to Q4 2025. [1] - **Price Stability**: DRAM spot prices remained stable with a 50%+ quarter-over-quarter increase, while NAND prices rose over 10% week-over-week due to ongoing shortages. [1] February Sales and Exports - **Sales Growth**: February sales for Nanya Tech increased by 587% year-over-year, and Korea's exports rose by 161% year-over-year, driven by strong conventional memory prices and improved product mix. [2] - **Operating Margins**: The industry average operating profit margin is expected to exceed 60% for DRAM and 30% for NAND. [2] - **Future Projections**: March sales, exports, and margins are anticipated to rise further as ASPs are expected to continue increasing, indicating a super-cycle in the industry. [2] - **China Smartphone Shipments**: Notably weak domestic smartphone shipments in China were reported, with only 21 million units shipped in January, down 16% year-over-year, attributed to memory chip shortages and high prices. [2] Competitive Landscape - **Hynix vs. Samsung**: Hynix's Yongin fab is approximately 30% larger than Samsung's P5 fab, with earlier completion and mass production timelines. Hynix's Yongin is expected to start mass production in Q3 2027, while Samsung's P5 is projected for 1H 2028. [3] - **Fab Construction Trends**: New fabs are being constructed with larger clean room spaces, indicating a trend towards increased capacity in the Korean semiconductor industry. [3] - **Supply Impact**: Despite the construction of new fabs, low impact on global memory chip supply is expected until 1H 2028 due to pilot runs and capacity ramp-up processes. [3] Price Trends - **Spot Prices**: As of early March, DDR5 spot prices are stable at around $39, with significant increases observed in previous months. [6] - **Contract Prices**: DDR4 and DDR5 contract prices are similar at approximately $30, indicating a lack of premium for DDR5 due to DDR4 shortages. [6] - **NAND Prices**: NAND wafer spot prices have seen a strong rally, significantly higher than the 2025 bottom levels. [6] Stock Performance - **Volatility in Memory Stocks**: Memory stock prices have been volatile due to the Middle East crisis but showed a strong rebound on March 5, supported by solid fundamentals and a DRAM super-cycle. [59] - **Valuation Metrics**: Key memory and semiconductor stocks were analyzed, showing varying P/E ratios, market capitalizations, and return on equity (ROE) across companies like SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, and Nanya. [59] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the ongoing super-cycle in the memory industry, driven by strong demand and pricing power, despite macroeconomic uncertainties. [2][59] - **Future Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the memory chip industry remains bullish, with expectations of continued growth in sales and margins in the coming months. [2][3]

Summary of Conference Call on NAND Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the NAND memory market, highlighting the impact of AI on demand and pricing dynamics, particularly for module makers in Asia such as Phison and Longsys [1][2][4][5]. Key Points 1. NAND Demand and Pricing Dynamics - AI demand and tight supply have significantly shifted bargaining power within the memory supply chain, with consensus EPS for the memory supply chain increasing by 279% year-over-year, compared to 37% for global tech coverage [2]. - NAND OEMs have seen stock prices surge by 566% since September 2025, while module makers have only increased by 219% [2][14]. 2. Challenges for Module Makers - Module makers like Phison and Longsys are facing margin pressures due to constrained supply and weakening consumer SSD demand amid rising NAND prices [1][4][5]. - Low-cost inventory for module makers is expected to be depleted by the second half of 2026, leading to margin normalization [4][15]. 3. Downgrades and Valuation Concerns - Phison and Longsys have been downgraded to Equal-Weight (EW) due to less attractive risk-reward profiles compared to fab-owning OEMs [5][51]. - EPS forecasts for 2027 are projected to be 25-30% below consensus for these module makers, with Phison's valuation appearing stretched at 18x 2027e EPS [5][15]. 4. Preferred Investment Exposure - The report suggests a preference for fab owners and AI storage leaders over module makers, indicating that the pricing power of NAND OEMs is expected to surprise positively [6][15]. - KIOXIA's ASP outlook for 2026 has been raised from +75% YoY to over +100% YoY, supported by strong OEM negotiations [3][47]. 5. Future Outlook and Risks - The outlook for enterprise SSD (eSSD) is positive, with significant growth expected, particularly from companies like SanDisk and Micron, which are gaining market share in this segment [39][41]. - Risks include the potential for greater value capture by module makers from AI-driven enterprise SSD demand, resilient consumer demand, and the possibility of memory being viewed as a secular AI infrastructure theme rather than a cyclical commodity [34][36][37]. 6. Competitive Landscape - Phison is characterized as a technology-focused company with strong capabilities in NAND controller IC design, while Longsys is more brand-focused with a broader product range [63][64][65]. - Both companies face challenges in maintaining margins and market share as the NAND market evolves, particularly with the increasing importance of AI applications [56][65]. Additional Insights - The memory group has been re-rated due to the supercycle driven by AI demand, with fab owners benefiting more than module makers [16][17]. - The report emphasizes that while module makers may initially benefit from low-cost inventories, this advantage is not sustainable as inventories deplete [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the NAND market, focusing on the challenges faced by module makers, the shifting dynamics due to AI demand, and the overall outlook for the industry.

Industry Overview - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector, bolstered by the rapid growth of cloud computing and data centers, is experiencing a robust demand scenario, particularly for AI-powered data center capacity to manage and store vast amounts of data [1] - The "magnificent 7" stocks are set to invest $650 billion in 2026 for AI infrastructure development, representing a significant 71.1% year-over-year increase in capital spending on the AI ecosystem [2] Company Insights Amphenol Corp. (APH) - Amphenol holds a Zacks Rank 2 and benefits from a diversified business model, commanding an estimated 33% market share in AI-powered data center interconnects [7] - The company is experiencing triple-digit organic growth in its IT datacom segment, driven by high-speed and power interconnect products [8] - Amphenol's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 34.9% and 29.3%, respectively, with a 1.9% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [12] Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - Western Digital, with a Zacks Rank 1, is witnessing strong demand for high-capacity hard disk drives (HDD) amid intensified cloud and AI demand [13] - The company is collaborating closely with hyperscale customers to deliver reliable, high-capacity storage solutions, with an expected revenue growth rate of -6.3% and earnings growth rate of 81.7% for the current year [16] Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT) - Vertiv, holding a Zacks Rank 2, benefits from a diverse product portfolio and is strategically expanding capacity to support AI-enabled pipelines [17] - The company has a partnership with NVIDIA to co-develop an 800-volt DC power architecture, ensuring its infrastructure solutions remain relevant as power requirements scale [19] - Vertiv's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 34% and 46.9%, respectively, with a 15.3% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [20] Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) - Lumentum, with a Zacks Rank 1, designs and manufactures optical technologies essential for AI and cloud computing, experiencing significant revenue growth driven by demand for AI infrastructure connectivity solutions [21][22] - The company has a strong collaboration with NVIDIA for developing silicon photonics, positioning it as a key supplier to hyperscale customers [23] - Lumentum's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 76.7% and over 100%, respectively, with a 34.6% improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [24] EMCOR Group Inc. (EME) - EMCOR, holding a Zacks Rank 2, is a leading provider of critical infrastructure to AI-powered data centers, focusing on electrical infrastructure and cooling systems [25] - The company is gaining traction in the data center construction market, which is contributing to its expanding remaining performance obligations (RPOs) [26] - EMCOR's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 5.4% and 8.6%, respectively, with a slight improvement in the earnings consensus estimate over the last 30 days [28]

Core Insights - AI technology is reshaping various industries, with storage technology becoming increasingly critical as a backbone for AI applications. Jiangbolong has emerged as a key player in the AI storage transformation with innovative solutions and precise market positioning [1]. Group 1: Full-Stack Solutions - Jiangbolong provides a full-stack solution for AI servers and computing integrated machines, covering all scenarios of AI training and inference. Key products include eSSD, RDIMM, SOCAMM2, and innovative memory solutions, which offer efficient and reliable storage performance tailored to complex AI needs [1]. - The new UNCIA 3856 SATA eSSD features high-quality 3D eTLC NAND and self-developed firmware algorithms, achieving a balance of large capacity, low power consumption, and high endurance, thus providing a solid data storage foundation for AI servers [1]. Group 2: Memory Solutions - Jiangbolong's DDR5 RDIMM and MRDIMM memory modules are core choices for general servers and AI infrastructure due to their high bandwidth, low latency, and excellent compatibility. The DDR5 MRDIMM significantly enhances data transfer rates through a multi-channel architecture, delivering unprecedented performance for AI computing integrated machines [3]. - The SOCAMM2 memory product, based on LPDDR5/5x particles and CAMM modular design, meets the stringent performance and energy efficiency requirements of data centers. It offers ultra-high transmission rates (up to 8533 Mbps) and low power consumption (one-third of standard DDR5 RDIMM), providing dual enhancements in capacity and bandwidth for intelligent computing centers [3]. Group 3: Edge AI Solutions - Jiangbolong has introduced the integrated packaging mSSD for edge AI applications, utilizing wafer-level system-in-package (SiP) technology to integrate the controller, NAND, PMIC, and other components into a single package. This makes mSSD an ideal storage solution for edge AI devices such as AI PCs and robots, offering flexibility and efficiency [5]. Group 4: Strategic Vision - In the AI era, mere improvements in storage performance are insufficient to meet the complex and changing application demands. Jiangbolong aims to achieve efficient utilization of storage resources and flexible release of computing power through an edge-cloud collaborative strategy. The company strengthens partnerships within the industry chain to inject critical storage capabilities into AI intelligent computing center construction and promote the continuous advancement and widespread application of edge AI storage technology [7]. - Jiangbolong's outstanding performance in the AI storage sector is reflected not only in the continuous launch of innovative products but also in its deep insights into industry trends and precise understanding of customer needs. The company will continue to adhere to an innovation-driven development strategy, focusing on core media like mSSD to iterate more forms and scenarios of innovative packaged storage, contributing further to the popularization and application of AI technology [7].

Industry Overview - The computer storage devices industry is expected to benefit from growth in cloud computing, IoT, auto, connected devices, virtual reality, and AI, leading to increased demand for robust data storage solutions [2] - The Zacks-defined Computer – Storage Devices industry ranks in the top 10% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with a remarkable 133.4% return over the past year and a 145.8% year-to-date return, indicating strong market performance [3] Company Analysis: Western Digital Corp. (WDC) - Western Digital reported Q2 fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings of $2.13 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.95, with a 78% year-over-year increase in earnings [7] - Quarterly revenues reached $3.02 billion, surpassing estimates by 2.24%, although down from $4.29 billion year-over-year [7] - Cloud revenues, which constitute 89% of total revenues, increased by 28% year-over-year, driven by demand for higher-capacity nearline products [8] - WDC's strong performance is attributed to robust cloud and AI-driven data center demand, with a total of 215 exabytes shipped, marking a 22% year-over-year increase [12] - The company anticipates continued momentum in Q3, projecting non-GAAP revenues of $3.2 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.30 [15] Company Analysis: Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) - Seagate Technology reported Q2 fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.11, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.83 and up from $2.03 year-over-year [19] - Quarterly revenues were $2.83 billion, exceeding estimates by 2.7%, compared to $2.33 billion in the previous year [19] - Revenues from the Data Center segment, which accounts for 79% of total revenues, rose by 28% year-over-year, driven by strong demand from global cloud customers [20] - Seagate shipped 190 exabytes of HDD storage, a 26% year-over-year increase, with 87% of shipments going to the data center market [21] - The company expects strong demand to continue, projecting Q3 revenues of $2.9 billion, a 34% year-over-year improvement, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.40 [28]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the storage chip market, particularly the rebound of major players like Western Digital and Seagate, highlights a market misjudgment following a significant drop in stock prices, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards the storage sector driven by AI and cloud computing demands [1][6][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - After a sharp decline of over 5% in the Kospi index, a significant rebound of nearly 7% was observed, reflecting a recovery in investor sentiment towards storage stocks [1]. - Western Digital's stock surged by 7.99% to $270.23, with intraday gains exceeding 10%, indicating a strong market reaction to its robust earnings report [6]. - UBS's report suggests that HDDs, particularly Nearline HDDs, are in a supply-constrained and demand-strong upward cycle, although the market has fully priced in the good news [6][10]. Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Recommendations - UBS maintains a "Neutral" rating on Western Digital while raising its target price from $230 to $285, indicating a cautious approach despite positive earnings [6]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the recent downturn in the storage sector is a misinterpretation of the strong fundamentals, predicting a significant increase in DRAM contract prices, with expectations of a 90-95% rise in Q1 2026 [6][9]. - UBS analysts recommend focusing on memory chip manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron for potential excess returns, rather than heavily investing in HDD cyclical stocks [6][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for data center "Exabytes" is rising, driving the HDD industry into a stronger profit growth cycle, although long-term price and valuation corrections are expected [9][16]. - The shift towards HBM storage systems is causing a supply shortage in traditional HDD products, as manufacturers prioritize high-margin HBM production to meet AI data center demands [18][19]. - Morgan Stanley and other firms predict that the current "storage chip supercycle" will last until at least 2027, with significant supply constraints expected to persist until 2028 [19][20]. Group 4: Price Forecasts - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% increase in NAND industry average selling prices (ASP) by 2026, with sustained high prices expected beyond that year [20]. - Citigroup analysts predict an aggressive price surge for DRAM and NAND products, with DRAM ASP expected to rise by 144% in 2026, significantly higher than previous estimates [21]. - The market is anticipated to enter a seller's market, with pricing power firmly in the hands of major storage manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron [21].

Summary of SK Hynix Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SK Hynix (Ticker: 000660 KP) - **Industry**: Semiconductors Key Financial Results - **4Q Results**: - Operating profit: KRW 19 trillion, up 68% quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) and 8% higher than estimates [1] - Sales: KRW 33 trillion, up 34% q-o-q and 66% year-over-year (y-o-y) [1] - NAND shipments and average selling prices (ASPs) increased by 9% and 29% respectively [1] - DRAM ASP rose by 24% q-o-q, contributing to improved earnings [1] Future Projections - **2026 Operating Profit**: Expected to triple to KRW 151 trillion, a 219% increase y-o-y [2] - **1Q 2026 Estimates**: Operating profit projected at KRW 28 trillion (+45% q-o-q) with sales of KRW 41 trillion (+25% q-o-q) [2] - **NAND Margins**: Expected to rise to 45% in 4Q 2026 from 9% in 2025 due to cost leadership and technology transitions [2] Market Dynamics - **NAND Demand Surge**: Shift from training to inference in AI applications is driving memory demand, leading to a shortage [3] - **Market Share**: SK Hynix holds a 27% market share in the NAND market as of 3Q 2025 [3] - **Supercycle Prediction**: Anticipated 4-5 year upcycle in the DRAM market, with sales projected to reach USD 454 billion by 2027, a 775% increase from 2023 [4] Investment Recommendations - **Target Price**: Increased to KRW 1.30 million from KRW 1.05 million, reflecting robust demand and price increases [5] - **Risks**: Potential risks include higher US interest rates affecting investment financing and aggressive capacity expansions by competitors [5] Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: KRW 626.81 trillion (approximately USD 438.21 billion) [8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2026 is KRW 169,188.59, a 24.6% increase from previous estimates [9] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to be 65.9% in 2026 [15] Additional Insights - **Capex Growth**: Capex estimates for 2026 and 2027 raised by 13% and 19% respectively due to stronger investments in leading-edge technology [81] - **eSSD Demand**: Expected to account for 40% of total NAND demand by 2027, up from 18% in 2023 [56] - **AI Server Growth**: AI servers projected to account for 62% of total eSSD demand by 2027 [58] This summary encapsulates the key points from the SK Hynix conference call, highlighting the company's strong financial performance, future growth prospects, and market dynamics within the semiconductor industry.

Summary of SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) - **Industry**: NAND Flash Memory Key Financial Highlights - **Quarterly Revenue**: Reported revenue of $3.03 billion, significantly exceeding Goldman Sachs (GS) estimate of $2.70 billion and the Street estimate of $2.69 billion [2] - **Gross Margin**: Achieved a gross margin of 51.1%, well above GS's expectation of 43.0% and the Street's 42.3% [2] - **Non-GAAP EPS**: Reported non-GAAP EPS of $6.20, surpassing GS's estimate of $3.66 and the Street's $3.55 [2] Guidance and Expectations - **1Q Guidance**: SanDisk guided 1Q revenue to $4.60 billion at the midpoint, significantly higher than GS's $2.62 billion and the Street's $3.00 billion [6] - **Gross Margin Guidance**: Expected gross margin of 66.0%, again above GS's 44.0% and the Street's 47.2% [6] - **Non-GAAP EPS Guidance**: Guidance for non-GAAP EPS is between $12.00 and $14.00, with a midpoint of $13.00, far exceeding GS's $3.48 and the Street's $5.42 [6] Market Dynamics - **NAND Supply Conditions**: The NAND industry is expected to remain undersupplied due to continued supply-side prudence, which is anticipated to drive gross margin expansion [4] - **Enterprise Market Growth**: Expectations for the enterprise market are now in the high-60% bit growth level for 2026, indicating strong demand [4] - **eSSD Market Share**: SanDisk has qualified its TLC enterprise drive offering with a second hyperscaler customer, suggesting potential for significant market share gains in the eSSD segment [4][5] Investment Outlook - **Rating**: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on SanDisk [8] - **Price Target**: The 12-month price target has been raised to $700 from $320, based on a 22X P/E multiple applied to a normalized EPS estimate of $32.00 [8] - **Risks**: Key downside risks include the failure of NAND recovery, competition from YMTC, and SanDisk's ability to gain traction in the eSSD market [8] Estimate Changes - **EPS Estimates**: EPS estimates have been increased by an average of approximately 200% to reflect higher revenue and margin assumptions due to tight supply conditions [7] Additional Insights - **Quarterly Performance**: The quarterly results were significantly above market expectations, indicating strong operational performance and market positioning [1] - **Future Projections**: The combination of tight supply and accelerating demand is expected to materially increase Street numbers over the next 12 months [1] This summary encapsulates the key points from the SanDisk conference call, highlighting the company's strong financial performance, optimistic guidance, and the favorable market conditions in the NAND industry.