每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜彭水萍 （一）重要市场新闻 1、美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.52%，纳指跌0.08%，标普500指数跌0.28%，热门科技股涨跌不 一，甲骨文涨超3%，Meta涨超2%，英伟达、亚马逊涨超1%，苹果、谷歌跌超1%；区块链、稀土概念 涨幅居前，TreaWulf涨超10%，Hut 8涨近4%；贵金属、金属原材料跌幅居前，美国黄金公司、金田跌 超7%，泛美白银跌超3%，美洲白银公司跌超2%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.03%，中概股多数下跌， 小鹏汽车、蔚来跌超5%，理想汽车、阿里巴巴跌超4%，百度跌近4%，京东跌超2%。 2、现货黄金跌1.6%，报3975.95美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%，报3991.10美元/盎司；现货白银 历史首次突破50美元/盎司，盘中最高涨至51.24美元/盎司，最终收盘时回落至49.21美元/盎司，涨幅 0.74%；COMEX白银期货跌2.73%，报47.66美元/盎司。国际原油集体收跌，美油主力合约跌1.65%，报 61.52美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌1.57%，报65.21美元/桶。欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX 指数涨0.06% ...

Key Takeaways U.S. markets extended gains in 2025, hitting new highs amid rate-cut hopes and AI-driven optimism. Five momentum picks for October, namely ADI, CCL, WDC, DOCU and WDAY with solid earnings outlooks.Each stock shows improving earnings estimates and growth potential across AI, travel and data center space.U.S. stock markets have continued their northward journey in 2025 following an impressive rally over the previous two years. In August, all three major stock indexes — the Dow, the S&P 500 and t ...

各位正盯着盘面的朋友，我是帮主郑重，这会儿得跟大伙说个实在话——存储芯片板块今儿跟踩准了鼓点似的，反复活跃着往上冲，香农芯创、江波龙直接 涨超12%，还接着创了新高，通富微电、深科技这些也紧跟着往上凑，盘面里这股劲儿看着真挺足。 别觉得这波涨是"瞎热闹"，背后的门道清楚着呢。之前央视财经就提过，过去小半年全球存储芯片价格就没歇着，一直稳稳往上走；这不，CFM闪存市场刚 出的2025年Q4展望报告更直接——里面明说了，接下来这季度，服务器用的eSSD价格得涨10%以上，DDR5 RDIMM涨得更猛，能到10%到15%。说白了， 是实实在在的价格趋势在托着这板块走，不是光靠消息炒起来的。 做了20年财经记者，我太清楚这种"板块爆发"的逻辑了——存储芯片不是冷门赛道，不管是服务器还是日常用的电子设备，都离不了它。现在价格一路往上 走，企业的业绩预期自然就跟着亮堂，资金肯定愿意往这种"有实在支撑"的地方扎；再加上今儿A股港股节后一起往上走的大氛围，这板块等于是踩准了节 奏，把涨势给做实了。 咱们做中长线的，不用盯着这会儿的涨幅慌着跟风，也别瞎担心"涨太快"。重点得看清楚，全球存储芯片的涨价趋势断没断、企业后续的业绩能 ...

存储芯片概念9日盘中再度走强，截至发稿，灿芯股份、华虹公司20%涨停，均创出新高；德邦科技涨 超13%，北京君正、中微公司涨超10%，通富微电、深南电路、雅克科技等均涨停。 行业方面，CFM闪存市场近日发布2025年四季度存储市场展望报告。报告指出，预计四季度，服务器 eSSD涨幅将达到10%以上，DDR5 RDIMM价格涨幅约10%—15%；Mobile嵌入式NAND涨幅约5%— 10%，LPDDR4X/5X涨幅约10%—15%；PC端LPDDR5X/D5价格涨幅预计将落在10%—15%，cSSD价格 涨幅达5%—10%。2025年四季度，由于大型云服务商对高容量DDR5和eSSD新增需求显著，9月以来服 务器客户加单动作频频，新增订单需求超过原厂原计划的预期供应量，预计四季度eSSD涨幅将达到 10%，DDR5 RDIMM涨幅约10%—15%，原厂64GB DDR4 RDIMM价格或上涨15%至20%。 中信证券近日指出，9月以来，根据Bloomberg、CFM闪存市场，NAND Flash Wafer和部分存储模组均 有不同程度上涨，涨幅个位数。展望后续，Trend Force预计2025年四季度NAN ...

Global memory Global Markets Research EQUITY: MEMORY Unprecedented super-cycle DRAM, HBM, and NAND triple super-cycle in 2026F US Big Tech's investments in both AI and conventional servers to boost 2026F memory demand; commodity DRAM/NAND OPM to reach historical high in 2026F There had been market concerns that competition among DRAM players in the HBM market would intensify from 2026, as Samsung (005930 KS, Buy) is likely to come back to Nvidia's (NVDA US, Not rated) HBM market in 2026. On the flip side, t ...

假期 AI 进展及解读：Sora2、OpenAI 开发者大会及与 AMD 战略合作 20251008 摘要 AI 视频生成模型 Solo 2 被誉为"AI 视频生成领域的 ChatGPT 时刻"， 在脚本构思、分镜设计和镜头语言等方面实现突破，商业应用潜力巨大， 尤其在广告短片、短剧和动漫同人创作领域。 OpenAI 开发者大会展示了其庞大的开发者群体和用户规模，表明 ChatGPT 具备成为入口级操作系统的潜力，通过降低 AI 应用门槛，为 相关公司带来机遇，并持续推动推理需求增长，利好互联和存储领域。 AI 技术正渗透影视制作的各个环节，从前期策划到后期制作，提高效率 并丰富创造性表达，尤其适合短时、高概念和强视觉的场景，但无法完 全替代整个影视内容的创作。 存储市场正经历由 AI 驱动的超级周期，高端产品如 DDR5、HBM 和 eSSD 产能利用率高，供给紧张，海外厂商资源倾斜导致 DDR4 等产品 价格上涨，预计 2025 年上半年难以新增产能满足 AI 需求。 AI 从训练阶段转向推理阶段，对存储需求扩展到 DDR5、SSD 和 LPDDR5 等多种类型，企业级 SSD 需求增加，预计 2026 ...

又有超百亿资金跑步入场！宽基ETF获爆买 券商主题遭弃 记者据Wind数据统计，股票型ETF的净流入额已连续两日在100亿元以上。全市场1037只可统计的股票 型ETF基金，在9月26日、9月29日的合计净流入额分别为193.93亿元、122.69亿元。其中，宽基ETF已 连续两日包揽净流入额前三。在周一资金净流入前十的ETF中，更是有9只为宽基ETF，剩余1只行业主 题ETF则为电池板块。值得一提的是，在周一券商板块大幅拉升的情况下，不少资金选择获利了结，多 只券商ETF净流出额居前。不过整体来看，月内以来，券商、机器人、电池是最吸金的三大板块。（澎 湃） 香港隔夜Hibor升破5% 创下今年来首次 香港隔夜借贷成本今年来首次跃升至5%以上。香港隔夜银行同业拆息(Hibor)周二大涨130个基点至 5.018%，为去年12月以来的最高水准。这使得截至9月的三个月内，累计上涨近500个基点。（同花 顺） 硅片企业Q4确定减产 电池片整体库存水平降至3-4GW 部分硅片企业国庆节后才公布排产计划，激进预期下硅片企业10月减产幅度或很小，后续仍需观察原料 价格以及下游传导情况。整体Q4根据协会配额，硅片企业基本确 ...

人民财讯9月30日电，据CFM闪存市场报价，2025年第三季度，NAND Flash市场综合价格指数上涨 5%，DRAM市场综合价格指数上涨19.2%。9月单月来看，NAND Flash市场综合价格指数上涨4.7%， DRAM市场综合价格指数上涨2.6%。预计四季度eSSD涨幅将达到10%，DDR5RDIMM涨幅约10%至 15%。据分析，下半年以来，大型云服务商加速导入验证高容量QLC eSSD，导致部分QLC NAND等供 应出现紧缺。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is on the brink of a "super cycle" due to historically low DRAM inventory levels and increasing demand driven by artificial intelligence and other factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - DRAM inventory levels have dropped to an average of 3.3 weeks, the lowest in history, similar to levels seen during the 2018 semiconductor super cycle [1]. - The demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) has surged due to the rise of AI, particularly with NVIDIA's AI accelerators, leading to a decrease in overall DRAM production as companies like Samsung shift production lines [2]. - The upcoming server upgrades in data centers built between 2017 and 2018 are expected to further increase the demand for general DRAM and eSSD [2]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - Prices for DRAM products have been rising, with "DDR4 8Gb" reaching $6,350 and "DDR5 16G" increasing over 40% since the beginning of the year [3]. - Samsung and SK Hynix are planning to raise DRAM prices, indicating a sustained trend of increasing prices in the market [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the peak of the current semiconductor cycle will occur in 2027, with a prosperous period lasting over a year [3]. - Samsung is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the semiconductor recovery cycle due to its capacity expansion at the Pyeongtaek plant [3].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is entering its first "super cycle" in seven years, driven by rising DRAM demand and supply constraints, particularly influenced by the AI boom and changes in supplier dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global DRAM suppliers' average inventory has dropped to a historical low of 3.3 weeks, similar to the 3-4 weeks average during the last semiconductor super cycle in 2018 [1]. - Despite DRAM buyers maintaining an average inventory of about 10 weeks, market demand remains strong, indicating a tightening supply situation [1]. Group 2: AI Influence - The surge in demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is primarily driven by the AI boom, as the value of accelerators used for AI training and inference has increased significantly [2]. - Major semiconductor companies like Samsung have shifted some DRAM production lines to HBM, resulting in a decrease in overall DRAM output [2]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - Prices for DRAM products are on the rise, with the price of "DDR4 8Gb" reaching $6.350 and "DDR5 16G" increasing over 40% since the beginning of the year, now priced at $7.535 [3]. - Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to further increase DRAM prices, reflecting ongoing supply shortages [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the peak of this semiconductor cycle will occur in 2027, with a prosperous period lasting over a year [3]. - Analysts expect Samsung to be the biggest beneficiary of the semiconductor cycle due to its capacity expansion in HBM, DRAM, and NAND sectors [3].