Sandisk Corporation Research Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) - **Sector**: IT Hardware - **Description**: Leading developer, manufacturer, and provider of data storage devices and solutions based on NAND flash technology, currently the third largest enterprise SSD manufacturer [9][10] Key Industry Insights - **NAND Technology**: NAND is becoming increasingly strategic for AI inference workloads, with significant performance improvements expected from new chip developments [1] - **Market Demand**: Strong demand for NAND products, particularly in enterprise SSDs (eSSDs), is anticipated to drive revenue growth [2][3] Financial Performance and Estimates - **Price Objective**: Raised to $390 from $300, reflecting higher revenue and EPS estimates [4][6] - **Revenue Estimates**: - F26E revenue increased to $10.9 billion from $9.9 billion - F27E revenue increased to $13.6 billion from $11.4 billion [4][6] - **EPS Estimates**: - F26E EPS raised to $16.21 from $11.85 - F27E EPS raised to $27.31 from $19.71 [4][6] - **Growth Rates**: Expected EPS growth of 436.8% in 2026 and 68.5% in 2027 [5] Pricing and Margins - **NAND Pricing**: Anticipated to increase by 20-30% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, followed by another 30%+ increase in Q1 [2] - **eSSD Margins**: Margins are currently not at full run-rate due to startup costs but are expected to improve with scale [2] Capacity and Production Strategy - **Capacity Growth**: Sandisk plans to grow in line with industry demand, which is projected to be in the mid-teens to low-20s percentage range [3] - **Long-Term Agreements (LTAs)**: Capacity expansion will only be considered with defined volume and pricing agreements in place [3] Investment Rationale - **Rating**: Buy rating maintained due to long-term growth expectations driven by demand for NAND in AI and eSSD market share gains [10] - **Valuation Methodology**: Price objective based on discounted cash flow (DCF) and price-to-book (P/B) valuation methods, reflecting the cyclical nature of the NAND market [13] Risks - **Upside Risks**: 1. Earlier than expected NAND upcycle 2. Stronger expansion in the NAND market due to AI-enabled products 3. Faster eSSD market share gains 4. Quicker recovery in NAND pricing [14] - **Downside Risks**: 1. Sharp drop in NAND prices due to oversupply 2. Competition from Chinese suppliers 3. Slower adoption of AI-enabled products 4. Loss of market share in eSSD [14] Additional Insights - **Market Valuation**: Current market valuation is approximately $51.2 billion with a share price of $349.63 [7] - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to turn positive in 2026 with $2.6 billion, growing to $4.0 billion in 2027 [8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the research on Sandisk Corporation, highlighting its strategic positioning in the NAND market, financial performance, and potential risks and opportunities.

华泰证券发布研报称，看好存储超级周期推动半导体行业规模加速增长。该行指出，根据WSTS预测， 2026年全球存储市场金额同比增长39.4%，同比增速超过2025年的27.8%。根据TrendForce预测，2026 年，DRAM Bit需求量或增长26%，NAND Bit需求量或增长21%（2025：22%/15%）。用于Rubin系列等 GPU的HBM4和用于AI推理的eSSD是行业的主要增长点。 值得注意的是，12月中旬有报道称，SK海力士向ASMPT订购了一批新的热压键合机（TCB），以支持 HBM4的生产。SK海力士计划于2026年3月再订购100套HBM4用TC键合机，以配合清州M15X晶圆厂的 扩产。届时，ASMPT、韩美、韩华三方将展开更激烈的订单争夺。但若韩系厂商无法尽快解决专利纷 争，ASMPT或将进一步扩大份额，甚至主导HBM4设备供应。 智通财经APP获悉，ASMPT(00522)尾盘涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报90.8港元，成交额2.4亿港元。 ...

值得注意的是，12月中旬有报道称，SK海力士向ASMPT订购了一批新的热压键合机(TCB)，以支持 HBM4的生产。SK海力士计划于2026年3月再订购100套HBM4用TC键合机，以配合清州M15X晶圆厂的 扩产。届时，ASMPT、韩美、韩华三方将展开更激烈的订单争夺。但若韩系厂商无法尽快解决专利纷 争，ASMPT或将进一步扩大份额，甚至主导HBM4设备供应。 华泰证券发布研报称，看好存储超级周期推动半导体行业规模加速增长。该行指出，根据WSTS预测， 2026年全球存储市场金额同比增长39.4%，同比增速超过2025年的27.8%。根据TrendForce预测，2026 年，DRAM Bit需求量或增长26%，NAND Bit需求量或增长21%(2025：22%/15%)。用于Rubin系列等 GPU的HBM4和用于AI推理的eSSD是行业的主要增长点。 ASMPT(00522)尾盘涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报90.8港元，成交额2.4亿港元。 ...

2026年，全球半导体行业将进入转型期，市场结构和价值链将进行调整以适应人工智能基础设施的扩 张。预计整个市场规模将接近1万亿美元，其中存储半导体将成为需求和盈利能力的关键驱动力。尤 其值得一提的是，业内专家预计SK海力士将成为这一转变的主要推动力，因为这家芯片制造商拥有 独特的优势，是唯一一家能够可靠地交付HBM3E和下一代HBM4的供应商。 根据世界半导体贸易统计（WSTS）的数据，2026年全球半导体市场将同比增长超过25%，达到约 9750亿美元，其中存储器领域的增长率将达到30%。市场研究公司和投资银行预计服务器和数据中心 存储器市场将出现特别强劲的增长，一些机构估计2026年存储器市场规模将超过4400亿美元。 分析表明，随着人工智能训练和推理服务器投资的增加，每台服务器的DRAM和HBM内存容量也在 稳步增长。与此同时，对企业级固态硬盘（eSSD）等存储设备的需求也在上升，导致整个人工智能 基础设施中内存和存储的占比结构性增加。 自2024年以来，业内人士一直用"超级周期"来形容存储器行业的强劲增长势头。美国银行（BofA） 将2026年定义为"类似于上世纪90年代繁荣时期的超级周期"，并预测全 ...

截至2025年12月31日 13:06，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)成分股方面涨跌互现，协创数据(300857)领 涨5.17%，昆仑万维(300418)上涨4.58%，广电运通(002152)上涨4.19%；北京君正(300223)领跌。AI人工 智能ETF(512930)最新报价2.19元。 消息面上，国家发展改革委相关负责人表示，我国深入实施"人工智能+"行动，为人工智能算力芯片提 供了广泛应用场景，各类型算力芯片需求增长迅速、创新非常活跃。目前，国产芯片产品在不同场景中 加速适配，应用成效非常好。特别是"超节点"等集群互联技术发展，为国产算力赶上国际领先水平提供 了良好机遇，拓展了广阔发展空间。未来，随着产业链上下游协同持续深化，国产算力水平将不断提 升，为人工智能产业发展提供更加有力的支撑。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)前十大权重股分别为中际旭创 (300308)、新易盛(300502)、寒武纪(688256)、中科曙光(603019)、澜起科技(688008)、科大讯飞 (002230)、海康威视(002415)、豪威集团(603501)、金山 ...

野村认为，得益于AI服务器对DRAM需求的意外强劲以及企业级固态硬盘（eSSD）需求的激增，全球内存行业的"超级周期"将比预期持续更久， 预计这一上行周期将至少延续至2027年。 据追风交易台消息，野村分析师CW Chung团队在24日的报告中强调，不仅高带宽内存（HBM）需求持续旺盛，通用型DRAM在AI服务器和传统 服务器领域的需求也在2026年呈现出爆发式增长态势。这促使客户开始采取预防性采购策略，从而推动供应商的提价幅度超出了野村此前的预 测。 鉴于供应端的大规模产能释放最早要等到2028年，野村预计未来几年内存市场将维持供不应求的局面。野村预测主要内存制造商在2025年第四季 度的营业利润将显著超出市场普遍预期。具体而言，PC和移动端DRAM价格环比上涨了30-40%，而服务器DRAM价格涨幅更是达到了40-60%。 受此利好影响，野村重申了对三星电子和SK海力士的"买入"评级。野村将三星电子的目标价上调6.7%至16万韩元，将SK海力士的目标价上调 4.8%至88万韩元，认为两家公司的估值相较于行业同行仍具吸引力，且随着盈利能力的显著改善，股价仍有约45%-50%的上涨空间。 AI需求重塑市场格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases driven by rising demand, particularly from AI applications, and supply-side capacity shortages [2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Semiconductor companies such as SMIC and GlobalFoundries have issued price increase notices to downstream customers, primarily focusing on the 8-inch BCD process platform with an increase of around 10% [3]. - The NAND price index has surged by 173% and the DRAM price index by 169% since the end of July, with expectations of further increases in DDR5 RDIMM prices by over 40% and eSSD prices by 20-30% in Q1 2026 [3]. Group 2: Market Growth - According to SEMI, global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to reach $133 billion in 2025, marking a 13.7% year-on-year increase, with continued growth expected in the following years, reaching $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027 [4]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks an index where nearly 60% is composed of equipment, and over 90% is focused on the upstream sectors of the semiconductor industry, indicating significant potential for domestic substitution [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment ETF has a strong focus on leading companies such as Zhongwei Company, North Huachuang, and Cambrian, with the top ten holdings accounting for nearly 80% of the index, showcasing high elasticity characteristics [7]. - As of December 24, the index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 65%, outperforming other mainstream semiconductor indices, suggesting it may have greater resilience in the upcoming semiconductor upcycle [7].

今日（12月23日）电子板块涨幅居前，汇聚电子板块核心龙头的电子ETF（515260）场内涨幅盘中上探1.23%，现涨0.92%，值得关注的是，该ETF场内频 现溢价区间，显示买盘资金更为强势！ 3、半导体方面，2026年半导体自主可控在外部约束升维、先进制程扩产与国产设备量产导入共振下，进入全面兑现期。先进逻辑与高端存储代工进入集中 扩产窗口，显著推升设备订单确定性；刻蚀、薄膜等核心工序国产设备迈向成套化导入，光刻、量测等低国产化率环节加速突破，迎来行业级"戴维斯双 击"配置窗口。 4、存储方面，25Q3以来存储价格全面上涨，DDR4受益原厂停产供给收缩，高规格存储供需双振，需求侧数据中心建置动能回暖叠加AI服务器大幅提升存 储配置要求，供给侧扩产相对有限，产品价格高歌猛进。展望2026年，DDR5、eSSD等高规格存储因供需缺口扩大涨幅可期，行业高景气度有望延续。 资金面上，超百亿主力资金涌入电子板块！截至发稿，电子板块获主力资金净流入105.45亿元，近5日、近20日分别吸金335.75亿元、1335.68亿元，持续高 居31个申万一级行业首位！电子ETF成份股寒武纪获主力资金净流入25.93亿元，登顶 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rebound with all three major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index achieved a five-day winning streak [1] New Energy and Lithium Industry - The new energy sector rebounded, driven by the continuous rise in lithium carbonate futures, leading the lithium battery industry chain [2] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with key stocks like North Huachuang and Tuojing Technology reaching historical highs, with market capitalizations of 353 billion yuan and 103.2 billion yuan respectively [4] - The main catalysts for the semiconductor industry include shortages and price increases, particularly in storage chips, which are expected to see significant price hikes of over 40% for DDR5 RDIMM and 20%-30% for eSSD by Q1 2026 [4] - Analysts predict that the AI demand will drive global storage and advanced process capacity expansion, benefiting domestic storage equipment companies [5] Financial Sector - The financial sector was active, with the insurance sector leading the gains, and stocks like Xinhua Insurance and China Pacific Insurance reaching historical highs [6] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for public consultation on asset-liability management for insurance companies, which aims to enhance governance structures [7] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments in stocks is expected to reduce capital occupation and improve solvency ratios [8]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Semiconductor Research Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Semiconductors and Data Center Capital Expenditure (Capex) - **Key Companies Discussed**: NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU) Key Points Data Center Capex Growth - Data center capital expenditure is projected to grow by **65%+ year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2025**, an increase from the previous estimate of **55%** [1] - This growth translates to an **incremental spend of over $115 billion** in 2025 compared to 2024, up from the earlier estimate of **$75-80 billion** [1] - The expected **incremental AI-related revenue** for NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and MRVL in 2025 is projected to be **$85 billion+** [1] 2026 Projections - Data center capex is now expected to track to **50%+ growth in 2026**, revised from **30%** [1] - This implies an **incremental spend of over $150 billion** in 2026, with potential upside to **$175 billion+** if demand continues to surge [1] - The strong demand for AI compute is anticipated to push 2026 data center capex growth into the **60%+ Y/Y range** [1] Company-Specific Insights - **NVIDIA (NVDA)**: Recently announced agreements with OpenAI and Anthropic contribute to a **$500 billion+ revenue backlog** through the end of 2026 [1] - **Broadcom (AVGO)**: Market misinterpretation of management's comments on a **$73 billion backlog** due to lead times [1] - **Marvell Technology (MRVL)**: Likely upside from AWS orders for Tranium3 [1] - **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)**: Anticipated announcements regarding significant customer engagements in the next 6-9 months [1] Market Dynamics - The spending environment is expected to support a **40-50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)** for the AI accelerator total addressable market (TAM) off a **$200 billion base in 2025** [4] - Strong AI server spending is projected to benefit companies like NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, AMD, and Micron [4] Future Visibility - While visibility into data center capex beyond 2026 is limited, current expectations suggest a **~10% Y/Y growth** in 2027 if spending remains flat [1] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of not solely focusing on traditional hyperscalers, as significant spending is also occurring with neoclouds and sovereign AI projects [4] - The analysis indicates that the semiconductor sector is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing AI demand, with several companies highlighted as top picks in the AI/cloud space [4] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of data center capex, is poised for significant growth driven by AI demand, with key players like NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and MRVL expected to benefit substantially from this trend [1][4]