Core Insights - The interview features Glenn Fogel, CEO of Booking Holdings, discussing the company's evolution, business model, and future direction, emphasizing its role as a leading aggregator in the travel industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Background and Evolution - Booking Holdings was formed through the acquisition of Booking.com in 2005, which was a strategic move to expand internationally and adopt a different business model compared to Priceline's original "name-your-own-price" approach [33][43] - The company initially struggled with cash flow due to the agency model, where hotels were paid after guests checked in, contrasting with the merchant model used by competitors like Expedia [40][41][42] - Booking's growth was facilitated by its ability to aggregate a large inventory of hotels, providing consumers with more choices and better visibility [44][53] Group 2: Business Model and Market Dynamics - The agency model allowed Booking to scale quickly by requiring minimal upfront commitments from hotels, which was crucial in a fragmented European market [45][53] - The company has adapted its payment systems to accommodate various payment methods, enhancing customer experience and hotel partnerships [50][51] - Booking's competitive advantage lies in its ability to provide value to both consumers and hotel partners, ensuring a fair transaction that benefits both sides [69][70] Group 3: Relationship with Google and Marketing Strategy - Booking Holdings has historically been one of the largest spenders on Google ads, adapting its strategy in response to changes in Google's search algorithms [61][64] - The company emphasizes the importance of ROI in its marketing expenditures, ensuring that hotel partners understand the value generated through their collaboration [71][72] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The emergence of Airbnb is viewed as an opportunity rather than a crisis, with Booking successfully capturing a significant share of the alternative accommodations market [82][83] - The company continues to innovate and improve its offerings, focusing on enhancing customer experience and expanding its service portfolio [90][91]

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the evolution of value investing, particularly focusing on intangible assets and their increasing importance in company valuations [8][29]. - The podcast features insights from Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital, who emphasizes a framework for evaluating intangible assets through four pillars: intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects [10][12]. Group 1: Intangible Assets - Intangible assets are becoming a significant component of company value, especially in large-cap companies in the US [8]. - The four pillars of intangible assets include: 1. Intellectual property (patents, trade secrets, software) 2. Brand equity (e.g., Coca-Cola, LVMH) 3. Human capital 4. Network effects (e.g., Google, Facebook) [9][10]. - Companies that invest in intangible assets often experience a J-curve effect, where initial investments may decrease earnings but lead to significant long-term value creation [16][17]. Group 2: Accounting Adjustments - Current GAAP accounting practices penalize companies that invest in intangible assets by expensing R&D and marketing, while capitalizing physical capital expenditures [11][12]. - Adjusting accounting practices to capitalize R&D and marketing investments can provide a more accurate representation of a company's value [13][14]. - The performance of companies with capitalized intangibles has been less poor relative to the market over the past decade, indicating the need for a shift in valuation metrics [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment approach at Sparkline Capital focuses on identifying undervalued companies based on their intangible asset investments, particularly in technology and consumer brands [26][36]. - The methodology leads to a portfolio composition that favors intangible-intensive industries, such as technology and healthcare, while reducing exposure to traditional asset-heavy sectors [26][27]. - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of intangible investments and their impact on stock valuations, especially in the context of the current market environment [49]. Group 4: Market Trends and Risks - The podcast discusses the current market structure, where a few companies, particularly in the AI sector, dominate market movements, creating a fragile investment environment [49]. - The potential for AI investments to lead to significant changes in company valuations and market dynamics is emphasized, with a focus on the long-term implications of these investments [45][46]. - The conversation also touches on the challenges faced by companies in adapting to the evolving landscape of intangible assets and the competitive pressures within the tech industry [53][54].

Which perp DEX will dominate users, liquidity and network effects in 2026? ...

Summary of the Evolving Landscape of Digital Money and Payments Industry Overview - The report focuses on the evolving landscape of digital payment systems, specifically examining stablecoins, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and public fast payment systems [2][5][6]. Key Insights Stablecoins - Stablecoins' market capitalization reached $270 billion in August, but transaction volumes remain small relative to global payments, with retail transactions accounting for only $6 billion, or 0.01% of retail payments [22][25]. - The majority of stablecoin transactions occur in international payment flows, often used for remittances and saving in stable currencies [22][30]. - The market is dominated by two issuers, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), with over 95% of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar [23][29]. - Stablecoins provide faster and cheaper settlement than traditional systems, but their adoption is hindered by the need for on/off-ramping to traditional payment rails [13][14]. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) - Only three countries have fully launched CBDCs: the Bahamas, Nigeria, and Jamaica, all of which have seen low adoption rates [42]. - Many central banks are researching or piloting CBDCs, but projects in countries like the US have been abandoned due to low take-up and privacy concerns [43][42]. - CBDCs do not typically pay interest and require accounts at commercial banks or payment service providers [46]. Public Fast Payment Systems - Countries like Brazil and Thailand have developed successful public fast payment systems that have quickly become the main form of non-cash payment [44][51]. - Successful systems feature widespread participation from banks and nonbanks, user-friendly interfaces, and low costs for consumers [47][62]. - The adoption of public fast payment systems in developed markets (DMs) is slower due to entrenched card networks, which provide consumers with incentives to remain on existing platforms [56][62]. Additional Important Points - The report highlights the significant network effects in the payments sector, where new technologies struggle to gain traction against established incumbents [20][62]. - The success of new payment methods in emerging markets (EMs) is attributed to less entrenched card networks, which allows for greater financial inclusion [62]. - The report emphasizes the need for new payment methods to be user-friendly, safe, and compatible with existing financial infrastructure to overcome network effects and achieve widespread adoption [62]. Conclusion - The evolving landscape of digital payments presents both opportunities and challenges, with stablecoins, CBDCs, and public fast payment systems each playing distinct roles in the future of financial transactions. The report underscores the importance of addressing network effects and fostering user-friendly solutions to drive adoption in both emerging and developed markets.

https://t.co/SMJk7fXTuiToken Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal):🌊🔁 LIQUIDITY HAS NETWORK EFFECTS: 12 of the top 20 stablecoin deployments by supply are on @ethereum. https://t.co/PWMR4TEZuL ...

Stablecoin Deployment - Liquidity exhibits network effects, with 12 out of the top 20 stablecoin deployments by supply located on Ethereum [1]

Stablecoin Deployment - Ethereum holds a dominant position in stablecoin deployments, hosting 12 out of the top 20 stablecoin deployments by supply [1] Network Effects - Liquidity demonstrates network effects within the stablecoin ecosystem [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $7.4 million for Q2 2025, marking a 31% increase year over year [31] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was negative $2.5 million, an improvement from negative $3.1 million in Q2 2024 [32] - Gross margin on IFRS basis was approximately 67%, up from 65% in Q2 last year [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Platform revenue reached $2.5 million, up 23% year over year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 20% [31] - Solutions revenue increased by 36% year over year to $4.9 million, reflecting proactive expansion of product capabilities [31][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The air cargo market saw a 3% increase in volumes compared to Q2 last year, despite challenges from tariff changes [14] - Ocean freight rates rose 43% from Q1 but were still 11% lower than last year, indicating capacity growth and potential overcapacity [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to digitalize international freight, positioning itself as a leading global freight platform [10][11] - Strategic expansion includes adding new carriers, with a total of 75 carriers now on the platform, enhancing coverage on critical routes [19] - The company is focused on increasing liquidity in ocean capacity and modernizing IT among ocean carriers [21][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while tariffs have created some headwinds, the overall impact is minor compared to the trend of digitalization driving long-term growth [17] - The company remains on track to achieve breakeven adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026, with confidence in sustaining growth rates [33][75] Other Important Information - The company has a strong balance sheet with $34 million in cash and cash equivalents [33] - The company plans to participate in several investor events, including the H. C. Wainwright Annual Investment Conference in September [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why did the company raise full year GBV guidance but keep revenue largely unchanged? - Management indicated that the mix of transactions affects revenue, with some lower take rate transactions growing faster [38][39] Question: How is the ShipStar position helping drive solutions revenue? - The integration of ShipStar has enhanced the product portfolio, enabling cross-sell opportunities and improving data offerings [41][42] Question: What is driving the pressure for modernization in the ocean freight sector? - The need for digital connections is being driven by customer demand for efficiency, moving away from traditional methods like Excel sheets [52] Question: Are there any strategic changes or new growth areas being evaluated? - Management is continuously reviewing resource allocation but does not expect any major changes at this time [60][61] Question: How much did FX fluctuations impact Q2 profitability? - FX fluctuations significantly affected adjusted EBITDA, but the company has managed to hedge nearly 100% of its exposure [62][64] Question: How does the company expect to achieve breakeven by the end of next year? - Management is confident in reaching breakeven with current growth trends and operational expense management [75][76]

Investment Strategy - The company focuses on identifying high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation and asymmetric risk/reward, and portfolio construction and risk control [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential, along with smart capital allocation and insider ownership [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are critical factors for evaluation [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are key competitive advantages [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries are prioritized [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is a focus area [1] - Maintaining a strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway is crucial [1] - Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness is emphasized [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are part of the evaluation process [1] - Ensuring downside protection while maximizing upside potential is a priority [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) consist of high-confidence, stable plays [1] - Growth bets (20-40%) are allocated to high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are made in moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

Core Platform Strategy - Blockchains, excluding Bitcoin, function as platforms [1] - Platform success hinges on attracting developers to build applications [1] - Applications drive user adoption for the platform [1] Crypto Industry Dynamics - The central question in crypto is platform's ability to attract developers [1]