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原油周报:OPEC+或将在10月暂停增产-20250713
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-13 09:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $69.8/$67.9 per barrel, up $1.6/$1.6 from last week [2]. - The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 731/707/24/46 thousand barrels [2]. - US crude oil production was 13.39 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 50 thousand barrels per day. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 176, a week - on - week increase of 4 [2]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.01 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 100 thousand barrels per day; the US refinery crude oil utilization rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2]. - US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.01/2.76/3.26 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 910 thousand/+450 thousand/ - 1.36 million barrels per day [2]. - The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $91/$102/$90 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/+$2.1/ - $4.1. The price spreads with crude oil were $21/$32/$20 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$1.2/+$0.4/ - $5.8 [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.0/0.4 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 266/83/91 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 130 thousand/1.04 million/910 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 40 thousand/+260 thousand/+300 thousand barrels per day. US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 40 thousand/1.59 million/1.54 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 80 thousand/+230 thousand/+310 thousand barrels per day. US aviation kerosene imports, exports, and net exports were 80 thousand/250 thousand/170 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +10 thousand/+80 thousand/+70 thousand barrels per day [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical & Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including the rise and fall of various sub - industries and the trend of the sector and the CSI 300 index, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [11][18] 2.2 Sector Listed Company Performance - The table shows the rise and fall of major upstream companies in the sector, including companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp., with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [22][23] - The valuation table of listed companies shows the stock price, total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp. from 2024A to 2027E, with data sources from Wind and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [24] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oil, etc., as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [26][29] 3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Studies the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the rise and fall of Brent oil, and the inventory of US total crude oil, commercial crude oil, strategic crude oil, and Cushing crude oil, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [44][45] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of US crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][58] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and Shandong refinery utilization rate, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [61][63] 3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import, export, and net import volume, as well as the import, export, and net import volume of US crude oil and petroleum products, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [66][68] 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, as well as the domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale - retail price spreads, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [73][76] 4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Analyzes the inventory of US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, and Singapore gasoline and diesel, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [99][100] 4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [115][116] 4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption and the number of US passenger airport security checks, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [117][118] 4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene import, export, and net export volume, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [126][127] 5. Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [139][141]
原油周报:俄乌冲突升温,国际油价震荡-20250608
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-08 12:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $65.4/$63.3 per barrel, up $1.0/$2.2 per barrel from last week [2]. - The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week change of - 379/-430/+51/+58 thousand barrels [2]. - The US crude oil production was 13.41 million barrels per day, up 10 thousand barrels per day week - on - week. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 442, down 19 week - on - week. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 186, down 4 week - on - week [2]. - The US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17 million barrels per day, up 670 thousand barrels per day week - on - week; the US refinery crude oil utilization rate was 93.4%, up 3.2 percentage points week - on - week [2]. - The US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.35/3.91/2.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 1/-39/+39 thousand barrels per day [2]. - The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $87/$87/$89 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of - $0.3/+$0.5/ - $5.1 per barrel; the spreads to crude oil were $21/$22/$23 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of - $1.0/ - $0.2/ - $5.8 per barrel [2]. - The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, up 522/423/94 thousand barrels week - on - week [2]. - The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.04/4.99/1.89 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 71/+18/+4 thousand barrels per day [2]. - The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 8.26/3.15/1.76 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 119/ - 74/ - 2 thousand barrels per day [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), etc. Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), etc [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector 3.2.1 Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector - Data on the percentage changes in the rise and fall of various industry sectors and the petroleum and petrochemical sub - sectors are presented, but specific values are not fully detailed in the provided text [14][19] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - Performance data such as the rise and fall percentages, latest prices, and market capitalizations of upstream listed companies in the past week, month, three months, one year, and since the beginning of 2025 are provided [24]. - Valuation data including stock prices, total market capitalizations, net profits attributable to the parent company, P/E ratios, and P/B ratios of listed companies from 2024 to 2027 are presented [26]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Prices - Data on the prices and spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationships between copper prices, the US dollar index, and WTI crude oil prices are presented [31][33][40] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Data on the US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are provided, including historical data and week - on - week changes [54][55][62] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - The US crude oil production, number of active crude oil rigs, and number of active fracturing fleets are presented, along with their relationships with oil prices [67][68] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Data on the US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and Shandong refinery utilization rate are provided [71][76] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Imports and Exports - Data on the US crude oil imports, exports, net imports, and the imports, exports, and net imports of crude oil and petroleum products are presented [78][81] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Prices - Data on the prices and spreads of crude oil and refined oils (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) in the US, Europe, and Singapore are presented [88][97][103] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Data on the inventories of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore are provided [118][123][130] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Data on the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US are presented [137] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Data on the consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, as well as the number of US airport passenger security checks, are provided [140][144][146] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Imports and Exports - Data on the imports, exports, and net exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US are presented [152][155][157] 3.5 Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Data on the average daily rates of jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry are presented [165][166]