交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。关税博弈成为近期重要影响因素，中期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定 性。Opec+7月连续第三个月增产石油，原油价格偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中 小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7150（+30），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差101，升贴水比例1.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54万吨（-1.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，中期关税谈判结果仍存不确定性，Opec+再度增产，农 膜 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。关税博弈成为近期重要影响因素，中期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定 性。Opec+7月连续第三个月增产石油，原油价格偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中 小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7120（+0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差157，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54万吨（-1.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-6-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。关税博弈成为近期重要影响因素，中期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定 性。Opec+7月连续第三个月增产石油，原油价格偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中 小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7120（+0），基本面整体偏空 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差160，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-0），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the mid - term tariff negotiation results uncertain, OPEC+ increasing oil production, and the demand side in a weak state. However, the strong basis is a bullish factor. It is expected that both PE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. It's the off - season for agricultural films, many small and medium - sized factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 95, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.4%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (-0), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and it's the off - season for agricultural film demand with new capacity pressure. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: Strong basis [6] - **Weakening Factors**: New capacity launch, weak crude oil [6] - **Main Logic**: New capacity launch, tariff policy [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs recently, with insufficient demand for pipes and good rigid demand for packaging films. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7100 (-50), with overall bearish fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 182, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.6%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (-0), neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, bullish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Leveraging Factors**: Strong basis [9] - **Weakening Factors**: Weak crude oil [9] - **Main Logic**: New capacity launch, tariff policy [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed accordingly [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed [17]