2025 年 10 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 长假期间国内外大事速递 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话： 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《节前波动有所放大，持股还是持币 过节？ —策略周报》2025-09-29 2、《长假临近，震荡分化延续 —策略周 报》2025-09-21 3、《颠簸初现，成长风格人气仍高 —策 略周报》2025-09-07 4、《A 股 8 月强势收官，9 月有哪些变 数？ —策略周报》2025-08-31 5、《沪指强势反弹，周期成长轮动 —策 略周报》2025-08-10 投资要点 美国政府"停摆"。 日本自民党选出首位女总裁，即将成为日本历史上第一位女首相。 中东地缘风险降温。 黄金再创新高，中国央行连续第 11 个月增持黄金。 国庆中秋假期超 24 亿人次跨区域流动，创历史同期 ...

据消息人士披露，瑞士向美国财长贝森特与贸易代表格里尔递交的机密提案中，核心内容包括将本土精 炼商的低毛利业务环节迁移至美国境内。这些因谈判保密要求而隐去身份的知情人士进一步透露，具体 操作将涉及把伦敦交易所标准规格的金锭进行重新熔铸，改造成更符合纽约市场需求的小规格金条产 品。 值得注意的是，尽管全球金价于周一突破每盎司3800美元创历史新高，但黄金精炼行业的利润率始终维 持在低位水平。历经多次所有权更迭后，当前精炼厂通过重铸金条所能获得的单位利润仍仅以数美元 计，凸显出该行业的微利特性。 今日周二（9月30日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于880附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报874.60元/ 克，涨幅1.50%，最高触及876.82元/克，最低下探865.08元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 为谋求特朗普政府削减上月起施行的高达39%的进口关税政策，瑞士方面创新性地推出了一项投资美国 黄金精炼产业的战略合作方案。作为发达国家中最为严苛的关税壁垒，该举措已对瑞士对美出口造成实 质性冲击，并导致其被迫调低经济增长预期。在总统卡琳·凯勒-祖特尔此前采取的对 ...

银河海外首席执行官Carol Fong与上海国际能源交易中心新加坡首席代表洪珺致开幕辞。上海国际能源交易中心高级经理洪 加其分享了上海原油期货的稳健运行和天然气期货上市进展。银河期货高级分析师赵梓彤就"关税博弈下的中美经济展望与 投资前瞻"作宏观解读。Rystad Energy大宗商品市场副总监叶霖分享全球石油市场基本面，Kpler商品研究总监Jonathan Leitch 探讨原油贸易流向与新机遇。银河期货机构业务总部副总经理李耀华详细介绍了银河油气业务服务及四季度策略展望。 作为银河证券全资子公司，银河期货自2010年开展国际业务，2018年原油期货上市后，代理多家境内外大型石油公司参与交 易与交割，业务规模持续处于行业领先地位。伴随国际化品种不断丰富和境外客户参与度提升，公司同步升级技术、交易、 交割、风控等方面持续优化，全面满足海外客户多样化需求。 未来，银河期货将协同银河海外等体系内平台，提供多元跨境服务，涵盖中国市场解决方案（如国际化特定品种、QFII、北 向收益互换等）及全球市场解决方案（如全球经纪、南向收益互换、QD服务等），并通过各类讲座、论坛向境外投资者传 递中国期货市场的最新动态与发展机 ...

美国议员将组团访华，特朗普却威胁对中印加税100%，还要求欧盟配合动手。 美国国会议员亚当·史密斯计划组团访华 美国一边想靠对话稳住经贸，一边又拿关税大棒威胁施压，这波操作到底藏着什么心思？欧盟真会跟着美国吃亏？中印又能怎么破局？ 最近美国政界的两个动作，简直像两套完全相反的剧本： 一套是 "求合作"，美国NBC电视台报道称，国会两党议员小组已经公布计划，9月份会对中国进行一场正式的访问。 另一套是 "硬施压"，美国总统特朗普公开喊话，要求欧盟配合美国行动，对中印等购买俄罗斯石油的买家，征收100%的关税！" 这一软一硬的两种反差，其实就是美国内部"打架"，再加上特朗普想在地缘上搞小动作的结果。 再挖本质，特朗普加税不是为了贸易，而是想靠关税 "控场"。 特朗普对中印加税的心思，其实完全不一样。 印度总理莫迪 美国总统特朗普威胁加征关税 先看现象，美国内部为何"自相矛盾"？一边求合作，一边挥大棒。 美国议员要访华，根本是被商界和老派势力推着走的。 就说福特汽车，去年在华卖了几十万台车，要是真加 100% 关税，一辆车售价得从 20 万涨到 40 万，要是中国消费者不买账，福特在华市场份额至少得掉一 半；还有苹 ...

分享要点 时间：9月25日（周四）18:30 地址：上海市淮海西路211号1006 预约席位 9月25日（周三）18:30–20:30，上海高级金融学院金融学教授朱宁将带来一场深度解析公开课，从多维 视角剖析关税博弈背后的逻辑、影响与中国的应对之道。 世界正经历巨大变革：技术革命、地缘政治重构、国内政策优化……全球经贸秩序面临前所未有的挑 战。特朗普重返白宫，再度引发市场对关税政策、贸易摩擦与全球化风险的广泛关注。 在这场充满不确定性的国际环境中，中国如何应对？企业如何前瞻布局？战略应如何调整？ 嘉宾介绍 朱宁 教授 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授 第一财经会员金选·教授公开课 由第一财经携手上海交通大学上海高级金融学院匠心打造。邀请专业教授分享当下企业最关心的话题， 为企业寻找破局之道。 朱宁教授现任上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授。朱宁教授曾任清华大学讲席教授、美国加州 大学金融学终身教授、早稻田大学访问教授。2008-2010年度，朱宁教授还曾担任雷曼兄弟和野村证券 高管，其所带领的团队在多项机构投资者评选中名列前茅。 特朗普关税政策的"前世、今生与未来" 特朗普任期内的全球风险 全球风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The world is undergoing significant changes, including a technological revolution, geopolitical restructuring, and domestic policy optimization, leading to unprecedented challenges for the global economic and trade order [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - A public lecture will be held on September 25, focusing on the logic, impact, and China's response to tariff negotiations [2]. - The lecture will cover topics such as Trump's tariff policies, global risks during his term, and the transformation of the Chinese economy under these risks [4]. Group 2: Speaker Profile - Professor Zhu Ning is a finance professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has held various prestigious academic positions, including at Tsinghua University and the University of California [8]. - Zhu Ning has extensive experience in the finance industry, having served as an executive at Lehman Brothers and Nomura Securities, and has published over 20 high-level academic papers in top international journals [9]. Group 3: Course Details - The public lecture is organized by Yicai Media in collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University, aiming to address pressing topics of concern for businesses [10].

Core Points - Japan's negotiation team views the reduction of auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% as a significant victory, despite the fact that the previous tariff was only 2.5% [1][3] - The automotive industry accounts for 8% of Japan's employment, making it a critical area for negotiation [3] - The new tariff structure will increase costs significantly for Japanese automakers, with an estimated annual profit reduction of over $4 billion [6] - Japan is required to increase its import of U.S. rice by 75% and open an $8 billion agricultural procurement quota, which will negatively impact local farmers [6][8] - The $550 billion investment from Japan will be directed towards five key sectors in the U.S., including LNG facilities, semiconductor manufacturing, critical mineral extraction, pharmaceutical production, and military shipbuilding [10] - Japanese companies are adjusting their supply chains, with Toyota increasing local parts sourcing in North America from 60% to 90%, affecting orders from Chinese factories [16][18] - The U.S. is establishing a "U.S.-Japan Supply Chain Resilience Working Group" to monitor critical products and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [22] - Japan's economic recovery is further complicated by the need to expand monetary easing due to the impact of the investment agreement [22] Automotive Industry - The reduction of tariffs on Japanese cars will lead to increased costs for manufacturers, with an additional $3,750 per vehicle exported [6] - Japanese automakers are accelerating the establishment of production facilities in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts [6][10] Agricultural Sector - The agreement mandates a significant increase in U.S. agricultural imports, which will disrupt local agricultural markets in Japan [8][20] - Japanese farmers are facing challenges due to the influx of cheaper U.S. agricultural products [8][20] Investment and Economic Impact - The $550 billion investment is seen as a way for Japan to support U.S. industries while potentially undermining its own competitive advantages [10][22] - The investment will require Japan to continue its monetary easing policies, impacting the yen's value and domestic consumption [22] Supply Chain Adjustments - Japanese companies are shifting their supply chains, with a notable decrease in exports to the U.S. and a focus on localizing production [18] - The semiconductor supply chain is also being restructured, with Japanese firms prioritizing U.S. production over exports to Taiwan [18] U.S. Strategic Interests - The agreement aligns Japan's economic strategies with the U.S. "Indo-Pacific Strategy," reinforcing U.S. influence in the region [22] - The U.S. is leveraging this agreement to monitor and control critical supply chains, particularly in technology and defense sectors [22]

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by the U.S. government, particularly through tariffs on imported furniture, has led to significant adjustments in the global supply chain, impacting Chinese furniture companies and U.S. home improvement giant Home Depot, which has seen a decline in net profit [1] - The book "Tariff Game" provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and contemporary implications of tariffs as a tool for national power, highlighting the stark contrast between G20 tariff commitments and actual practices [2] - The complexity of the tariff landscape in 2025 is illustrated through various case studies, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum and Chinese graphite, which have forced companies to relocate production and adapt to new market conditions [3] Group 2 - The book proposes actionable solutions to break the cycle of "tariff-war-inflation-recession," including the Singapore variable tariff system and the exploration of new tax regimes for cross-border data flow [4] - The emergence of 3D printing technology and the growth of cross-border e-commerce, with transaction volumes exceeding $4 trillion, challenge traditional tariff systems and necessitate the development of a "tariff elasticity mechanism" [4] - "Tariff Game" serves as a key to understanding the dynamics of international relations in the 21st century, providing insights for policymakers and business leaders navigating the evolving landscape of global trade [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - level, during the reporting period, the expectation of interest rate cuts fluctuated. At the beginning of August, the labor market data pushed up the expectation of a 50bp rate cut in September. However, Fed officials later down - regulated this expectation. In terms of cost, nickel ore supply is becoming looser, with price changes in Indonesia and the Philippines. Fundamentally, nickel - iron imports shrank, prices rose, and steel mill production increases were poor. The sulfuric acid market maintained its heat, but the growth of supply was limited by raw materials. The pure - nickel market had average trading. Later, as the interest - rate cut approaches, the nickel price may rise, with steel mills expected to increase production and replenish raw materials in September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the interest - rate cut expectation. At the beginning of the month, the poor non - farm payrolls data and potential rate cuts pushed up nickel prices. In the middle, hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in nickel prices. At the end, dovish remarks from Powell restored nickel prices. Overall, the price fluctuations were limited. The spot premium and discount remained stable, with Jinchuan nickel in the 2100 - 2600 range and imported nickel in the 300 - 600 range [8][9]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Trump's tariff diplomacy was widespread in August, with trade frictions between the US and many countries. The US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policies may affect future tariff disturbances. The US economic data was not optimistic, with inflation rising, the labor market weakening, and consumer spending conservative. There was a risk of stagflation. However, the upcoming rate cut in September may boost market sentiment [13][14][15]. Domestic - China's economic data was relatively stable in August. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. Inventory circulation was smooth. However, inflation data was mixed, and consumer spending was not strong. The domestic economy relied heavily on fiscal support, with government bond financing playing a major role in social financing. There were still structural risks [16][17]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore Supply and Cost - Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to be looser, with a decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in late August. In July, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories rose. However, high - grade nickel ore remained in short supply [18][20]. Smelting Profit and Supply - In August, China's refined nickel production increased year - on - year. In July, the smelting profit of integrated electrowinning nickel improved, but it may decline in August due to rising costs and falling nickel prices. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia, while exports also increased. Currently, export profits are in a loss state, which may affect future exports [21][23]. Nickel - Iron Cost and Demand - In July, the price of high - nickel pig iron first fell and then rose. In August, the production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants improved, but cost pressure remained. In September, the production of stainless steel is expected to increase, which may improve the profit of nickel - iron smelting. In July, the import of nickel - iron increased slightly, and the import and export of stainless steel showed different trends [25][26][27]. Sulfuric Nickel Market - In August, the price of sulfuric nickel showed a differentiated trend. The production of sulfuric nickel decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The inventory of the industry chain decreased, indicating smooth resource circulation. The profit of high - ice - nickel to sulfuric nickel was positive, while other processes were in the red. In July, imports increased, and exports decreased slightly [30][31]. New Energy Vehicle Market - From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, but the growth rate slowed down in July. In July, the export of new energy vehicles increased significantly. In the future, the growth rate of consumption will slow down, but there is still room for growth, and subsidy policies will play a supporting role [34][35]. Inventory Situation - As of August 29, domestic refined nickel social inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. In the future, with the import window open and limited domestic supply growth, and considering the production increase of steel mills and the seasonal peak of the power end, inventory may decrease during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [37][38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: There is no maintenance plan at home and abroad, but the smelting profit is expected to decline, and domestic production is expected to be stable but weak. The import window is open, and overseas resources may flow in [40]. - Demand: Steel mills' production is expected to increase, and the largest demand terminal may replenish inventory. The growth rate of the power terminal has slowed down but still has growth potential [40]. - Cost: Nickel ore supply is becoming looser, and the cost center is expected to move down [40]. - Macro: As the interest - rate cut approaches, the macro - expectation is positive, but tariff disturbances should be watched out for. Overall, the nickel price may rise as the interest - rate cut nears, with the replenishment expectation of steel mills and positive macro - sentiment [40].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals declaring Trump's tariffs illegal has reignited the tariff debate, while Powell's dovish stance at Jackson Hole has increased the certainty of rate cuts in the medium term, suggesting that liquidity conditions will continue to resonate both domestically and internationally, with industrial and precious metals expected to perform well as the peak demand season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff and Monetary Policy Impact - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's global tariffs are "illegal," leading to renewed uncertainty in tariff negotiations, although the tariffs will remain in effect until mid-October [1]. - Powell's unexpected dovish comments at the Jackson Hole meeting, along with political pressures, enhance the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the medium term [1][2]. - The combination of a loose domestic monetary environment and ongoing international liquidity conditions is expected to support precious metals, despite potential short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The tariff debate may cause fluctuations in gold prices, but the dovish Fed stance and adjusted inflation targets provide upward support for precious metals [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing and services PMI for August were reported at 53.3 and 55.4, respectively, indicating economic resilience and supporting inflation expectations, which in turn bolster precious metal prices [2]. - Long-term risks related to U.S. government debt and challenges to the dollar's status may lead to continued strong performance of gold in a restructured global monetary system [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Performance - With Powell signaling rate cuts and the Chinese government emphasizing fiscal and financial support to boost domestic demand, industrial metals are expected to benefit from improving demand expectations [2]. - The transition from off-peak to peak demand seasons, coupled with low inventory levels for major industrial metals, suggests a favorable supply-demand balance that could support prices [2]. - Seasonal disruptions in supply due to maintenance and other factors, alongside rising demand, may lead to a marginally improved supply-demand dynamic for industrial metals [2].