行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 03 月 01 日 亚玛芬 25 年业绩超预期，比音增持计划彰显信心 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20260301 相关研究 《比音勒芬（002832）点评：控股股东一 致行动人拟大举增持，彰显发展信心》 2026/02/28 《亚玛芬体育（AS）点评：收入利润均超 预期，26 年收入展望延续高增》 2026/02/27 《冬奥会火热进行，关注运动板块赛事催 化——纺织服装行业周报 20260223》 2026/02/23 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅 ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周三，豆油主力05合约午后收于8228（日变动88或1.08% ）。豆油现货价格普遍较节前上涨100元/吨左右。美伊对抗持续， 国际原油价格运行坚挺。美国生物柴油政策预期向好，市场看多情 绪浓厚，CBOT豆油上探60美分/磅关键位置，国际市场利好持续。 我国港口大豆库存同比下滑，三大油脂整体库存高位小幅回落且低 于去同期水平，供需基本面也在逐步改善。预期向好，豆油上涨驱 动持续，主力合约多单考虑继续持有。豆油主力05合约支撑位关注 8000-8100元/吨，压力位关注8560-8600元/吨； 菜油：周三菜油期货先跌后涨，主力2605合约收涨0.38%于9244 。年后油厂开机增多，菜油供应或增加，而下游消费正值季节性淡 季，市场需求整体偏弱。但港口澳籽总量有限，加菜籽连续出现3- 5月船期买船，但到港情况仍将取决于中加贸易关系的实际落地情 况。特朗普此前关税行为被美国法院判定为违法，但随后其再度加 征新一轮关税，海外关税博弈加剧。受宏观及美生柴需求预期带动 ，菜油价格预计跟随油脂板块摆动，自身单边驱动方向仍不明确。 菜油 ...

恐怕没有人会预料到，今年开年的中美剧本会走向如此戏剧化的局面。如今，面对这场复杂的博弈，你能预测接下来的发展吗？中国的国运似乎来了，真的 是挡也挡不住啊！今天，我们重点聊聊两件事：一个是中国人的暴富机会，另一个是关于这次变局的深远影响。 首先，谈到美国关税政策的变动，大家对这事儿应该都有了解，但接下来我想聚焦的是两大最新动向，这两件事直接影响着中美之间的一系列后续变化，而 且它们的影响是深远的。第一个动向发生在2月22日，美东时间晚上，美国海关官网发布了一则重要公告，宣布终止特朗普时期根据《国际紧急经济权利法 案》（IEEPA）所征收的关税，其中包括了对等关税和芬太尼关税。你可能会问，2月22日是什么时候？没错，正好是周日的晚上。你千万不要以为美国人 工作狂到大周末还忙着更新公告，其实更可能是故意避开了热门时段，挑在了一个巧妙的时间点，以为等到周一生效。公告明确指出，所有国家和地区的对 等关税和芬太尼关税将被取消。对于中国来说，这意味着取消了10%的芬太尼关税和10%的对等关税。就在几天前，特朗普也宣布，根据美国《1974年贸易 法》第122条款，将对所有进口商品加征15%的新关税，这项新税率将从2月24日开 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 3．连盘豆粕缺乏边际新增信息，短期预计跟随美盘运行，市场继续关注3月国内进口大豆到港节奏与储备拍卖进展。 观点总结：区间交易思路，预计05合约日内运行区间2700-2850元/吨。 鸡蛋：中性偏空 1．盘面表现：昨日玉米05合约收盘于2341元/吨，日涨幅0.21%，为9个月以来新高，盘面资金情绪明显，日增仓超4万3千手。 2．现货与渠道情况：基层玉米收购工作陆续重新启动，但整体提量受复工进度与现货价格影响，或在元宵节之后显化。 3．下游需求：春节后，深加工方面企业开工启动快于基层收购情况，补库需求被强化，鲅鱼圈港等港口报价同步出现5-10元/吨涨幅，哈尔滨/长春等地现货 价格日涨20元/吨；周内预计有超过2万8千吨国储拍卖，上量强度有待下周提振。 4．市场关注&观点总结：目前虽然05走强明显，但在整体库存水平一般，下游利润承压的背景下，深加工企业对提价的接受度较低。且地趴粮话题随着最 近寒潮的推进被延迟弱化，整体判断上方空间有限，不宜追多。后续跟进实际上量情况与港口波动。 豆粕：中性 1．海外市场继续关注中国对美国最高法院推翻特朗 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass to trade weakly in a range [1][7][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][10][11][13][14][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC; low - level rebound for caustic soda; selling short on rallies for soda ash; strong - biased oscillation for styrene; range trading for rubber, urea, methanol; weak - biased oscillation for polyolefins [1][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Strong - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn; oscillation for apples and jujubes [1][24][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract of live pigs, selling short on rallies; selling short on rallies for near - month egg contracts if culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short - selling on rallies for soybean meal; buying on dips for oils [1][28][29][30] Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the impacts of policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors on different futures markets [1][5][8][10] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, buy on dips. AI concerns boost precious metals, and the market may be strong before the Two Sessions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Oscillation. Despite supply pressure, the bond market may continue the bull market if the pressure can be digested [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The tariff game continues, and the steel price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to low valuation and weak driving forces [8] - **Glass**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply reduction and demand weakness coexist, and there are potential risks and uncertainties [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest buying on dips. Supply is tight, demand is resilient, and copper remains a strategic resource [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is expected to improve, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains [11] - **Nickel**: Suggest buying on dips moderately. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price [13] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is in a recovery trend [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical events and economic data affect the prices, and the mid - term price centers are rising [14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. Supply and demand factors coexist, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, but there are potential opportunities from policies and exports [16][18] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level rebound. Supply pressure is large, and the price may be supported if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [18] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price may be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Styrene**: Strong - biased oscillation. Low inventory during the Spring Festival and export support the price, but supply may increase in March [19][20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is in the off - season, and demand is expected to support the price [20] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, and demand is supported by agricultural and industrial needs, with stable prices [21] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand is weak, and the market is weak [22][23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply is high, demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulates [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - biased oscillation. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be strong after the festival [24] - **Apples**: Oscillation. The trading volume of different grades of apples varies in different regions [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillation. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes varies by region [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract, selling short on rallies. Short - term price is under pressure, and long - term price depends on capacity reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Selling short on rallies for near - month contracts if culling does not accelerate. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak after the festival [28] - **Corn**: Range trading. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is relatively loose [29] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - selling on rallies. Global supply is abundant, and domestic supply is loose from March to June [29][30] - **Oils**: Buying on dips. After the Spring Festival, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market higher, with different performances among varieties [30][31][32][33][34][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

据新华社电 美国最高法院日前公布裁决，认定美国《国际紧急经济权力法》没有授权总统征收大规模 关税。目前来看，特朗普政府关税政策并未因最高法院裁决而转向，而是采取其他方案继续加征关税。 未来，美国民主、共和两党，政府与商界，以及美国与贸易伙伴围绕关税的博弈仍将持续。 毕马威会计师事务所首席经济学家戴安娜·斯旺克认为，不应对最高法院的裁决过于乐观。最高法院法 官为退还关税留有选择空间，退税流程预计需要提交大量文件，"会是一场噩梦"。 特朗普称尚不清楚如何处理已征收的关税，并暗示这一问题将由法院裁决。若美国国际贸易法院最终负 责处理退款流程，想要拿回税款的任何进口商都必须提起诉讼。 尽管美国政府此前多次宣称，"关税由外国出口商承担"，给美国带来巨额收入，但近期多项研究结果显 示，加征的关税主要由美国企业和消费者承担。由于通胀压力高企，特朗普政府此前已经取消对咖啡等 进口商品的关税，也推迟了对家具加征关税。 各方关注的另一个焦点是，企业能否顺利获得退税。据美国宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的预算模型测 算，最高法院关税终裁涉及的退税金额达1750亿美元。美国进口商与政府可能将围绕退税展开旷日持久 的斗争。 面对舒默等人发出 ...

由于对AI可能冲击企业利润的担忧再度升温和持续的关税不确定性冲击风险偏好，美国股市下跌，债 券上涨。比特币短暂跌破65000美元，黄金走高。 随着投资者评估最新贸易动态影响，标普500指数下跌近1%，软件股领跌。DoorDash和美国运通下挫， 此前Citrini Research发文详述了人工智能可能对市场和全球经济产生影响的假设性情境。 在美国最高法院上周五裁定废除总统特朗普的"对等"关税后，白宫迅速以新的15%全球关税予以回应。 欧盟冻结了与美国贸易协议的批准程序，直至特朗普明确接下来的关税计划，此举为本已紧张的跨大西 洋关系注入新的经济动荡。 Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management的Michael Landsberg表示："关税博弈可能在今年余下时间 持续干扰市场，但波动性将小于去年4月的最初冲击。" Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management的Michael Landsberg表示："关税博弈可能在今年余下时间 持续干扰市场，但波动性将小于去年4月的最初冲击。" 美国国债收益率下跌，尽管交易员目前完全计入的美 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Japan, including 25% on automobiles, 30% on steel, and 20% on semiconductors, leading to a combined market value loss of $68 billion for major Japanese companies like Toyota, Nippon Steel, and Tokyo Electron [1][3] - The tariffs target critical sectors where Japan has substantial exports to the U.S., with automobiles making up 32% of Japan's exports to the U.S., steel 38% of U.S. steel imports, and semiconductors being vital for the U.S.-Japan alliance [3][5] - Japan's response to the tariffs is heavily influenced by security concerns, as the U.S. nuclear umbrella is crucial for Japan's defense against regional threats, and any retaliatory measures could jeopardize this protection [5][7] Group 2 - Japanese companies are under pressure to comply with U.S. demands due to their significant revenue dependence on the U.S. market, with Toyota deriving 30% of its profits from North America and Nippon Steel having 40% of its high-end steel sales directed to U.S. automakers [5][7] - Japan lacks effective countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, with limited resources to leverage, such as a three-month supply of rare earths and a substantial holding of U.S. Treasury bonds that could backfire if sold [7] - The U.S. strategy appears to be to use Japanese investments to fill its own gaps in the semiconductor industry while simultaneously benefiting from Japanese market access to support its automotive workforce [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on South Korean products, including automobiles, wood, and pharmaceuticals, from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean National Assembly's failure to approve the U.S.-Korea trade agreement [1][6] - Following the announcement, the South Korean Composite Stock Price Index opened lower but rebounded to close up 2.73%, reaching a new historical high [1] - The trade agreement, initially signed in 2025, included commitments from South Korea to invest $350 billion in strategic areas, pay $200 billion in cash, and procure $100 billion in U.S. liquefied natural gas [8][9] Group 2 - The U.S. had previously reduced tariffs on South Korean automobiles and parts from 25% to 15% as part of the agreement, but the implementation has been stalled in the South Korean National Assembly [9] - South Korea's Finance Minister's statement regarding the delay in the $350 billion investment due to the weakening won further fueled U.S. frustrations, leading to the tariff increase [9][11] - The South Korean government is actively seeking to address the tariff threat, with plans for high-level discussions in the U.S. and legislative efforts to expedite the approval of the trade agreement [10][11] Group 3 - The increase in tariffs is expected to significantly impact South Korea's automotive exports, which amounted to $30.2 billion in 2025, accounting for 25% of total exports to the U.S., and has already seen a year-on-year decline of 13.2% [11] - The South Korean won has reached its lowest level since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, raising concerns about capital outflows [11] - The outcome of negotiations and the South Korean National Assembly's review of the trade agreement will be critical in determining the future of the tariff situation [13]