Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amer Sports and Bi Yin Le Fen, indicating strong confidence in their growth potential and market positioning [10][20][23]. Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a 27% increase in revenue for 2025, reaching $6.57 billion, with a net profit of $550 million, reflecting a 131% year-on-year growth [10][13]. - Bi Yin Le Fen's major shareholder plans to increase holdings by $100-200 million, signaling confidence in the company's future prospects [11][20]. - The textile and apparel sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in domestic demand in 2026, with a focus on high-performance outdoor and discount retail segments [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising 1.5%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 1.3 percentage points [3][4]. - In December, China's textile and apparel exports fell by 7.4% year-on-year, totaling $25.99 billion [44]. Key Company Updates - Amer Sports' Q4 revenue reached $2.1 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, driven by strong performance across all brand segments [10][13]. - Bi Yin Le Fen's major shareholder plans to increase holdings, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market value [11][20]. Market Trends - The price of Australian wool has reached a new high, with a 61.9% year-on-year increase, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for wool producers [9][51]. - Cotton prices have also risen, with the national cotton price index reporting a 3.5% increase, suggesting a bullish trend in the cotton market [9][47]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a 16-18% revenue growth for Amer Sports in 2026, with a focus on expanding its high-performance outdoor and apparel segments [18][33]. - The textile and apparel industry is expected to recover gradually, with new consumption trends emerging in high-performance outdoor gear and discount retail [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Wednesday, the main 05 contract of soybean oil closed at 8,228 in the afternoon, with a daily change of 88 or 1.08%. The spot price of soybean oil generally increased by about 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. With the continuous confrontation between the US and Iran, the international crude oil price remained firm. The expectation of the US biodiesel policy was positive, and the market sentiment was bullish. CBOT soybean oil reached the key level of 60 cents/pound. The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports decreased year-on-year, and the overall inventory of the three major oils slightly declined from the high level and was lower than the same period last year. The supply - demand fundamentals were gradually improving. It is expected that the upward momentum of soybean oil will continue, and long positions in the main contract are recommended to be held. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean oil is 8,000 - 8,100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8,560 - 8,600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Wednesday, rapeseed oil futures first declined and then rose. The main 2605 contract closed up 0.38% at 9,244. After the Spring Festival, the number of oil mills starting operations increased, so the supply of rapeseed oil might increase, while the downstream consumption was in the seasonal off - season, and the overall market demand was weak. However, the total amount of Australian rapeseed at ports was limited. There were continuous purchases of Canadian rapeseed for the March - May shipping period, but the arrival situation would still depend on the actual implementation of China - Canada trade relations. Trump's previous tariff actions were ruled illegal by the US court, but he then imposed a new round of tariffs, intensifying the overseas tariff game. Driven by macro factors and the expectation of US biodiesel demand, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate with the oil and fat sector, and its own unilateral driving direction is still unclear. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively strong following the sector, but be cautious when chasing up. The upper resistance range of the 05 contract is 9,390 - 9,400, and the lower support range is 8,800 - 8,810 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Wednesday, palm oil futures opened lower, rose, and then fell back at the end of the session. The main 2605 contract closed down 0.16% at 8,848. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil in February decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory at the origin was at a high level, putting pressure on the palm oil price. In March, Indonesia will increase the export tariff, which will indirectly benefit the export of Malaysian palm oil. There is still room for trading on the demand side during the Indian Ramadan stocking period, and the downside space of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the implementation of the US biodiesel policy expectation in March. After the continuous decline before the festival, the downside space of palm oil may be limited. Consider looking for opportunities to go long on dips. The upper resistance range of the main contract is 9,000 - 9,020, and the lower support range is 8,650 - 8,700 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, the CBOT soybean 05 contract rose and temporarily closed at around 1,162 cents/bushel in the afternoon; the main 05 contract of soybean meal closed at 2,831 in the afternoon (daily change of 50 or 1.80%); the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 closed at 3,589 in the afternoon (daily change of 63 or 1.79%). With the positive expectation of biodiesel, the consumption of US soybean crushing was strong, and the export expectations of US soybeans to China and India were not bad. Multiple positive expectations resonated, driving up the price of CBOT soybeans and the prices of Chinese soybean commodities. The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports decreased year - on - year, and the market was still worried about the soybean supply in China before May. The situation of loose supply of oil and meal may gradually reverse. The valuation of soybean meal is low, and the positive driving factors are gradually emerging. The short - term price of the main soybean meal futures may be strong. Consider lightly laying out long positions. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean meal is 2,760 - 2,780 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 2,950 - 3,000 yuan/ton. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 is 3,480 - 3,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 3,750 - 3,780 yuan/ton [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Wednesday, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell back. The main 2605 contract closed up 0.57% at 2,312. Driven by the leading rise of soybeans, rapeseed meal followed and was relatively strong. From the perspective of its own fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, the number of oil mills starting operations increased, while the demand entered the consumption off - season. Currently, the total amount of Australian rapeseed at ports is limited; there are continuous purchases of Canadian rapeseed for the March - May shipping period, but the arrival situation will still depend on the actual implementation of China - Canada trade relations. Trump's previous tariff actions were ruled illegal by the US court, but he then imposed a new round of tariffs, intensifying the overseas tariff game. It is recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can consider short - term range operations. The lower support level of the RM main contract is 2,190 - 2,200, and the upper resistance level is 2,340 - 2,350 [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Wednesday, the futures prices showed a volatile consolidation trend. In the overseas market, there is a game between the high inventory of US corn and good export performance this year. However, the initial estimate of the planting area of US corn in the new year at the outlook forum decreased significantly, which provided some support for the futures price. The futures price is expected to continue the bottom - building trend. In the domestic market, the decrease in high - quality grain sources year - on - year and the phased supply - demand mismatch support the continuation of the market. The futures price may continue to fluctuate strongly, but considering the relatively high temperature this year, there is still pressure to sell grain after the festival, and the driving force for the improvement of downstream profits is limited. Be cautious about the upside space. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a short - long thinking. For option operations, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. The support range of the corn 2605 contract is 2,240 - 2,250, and the resistance range is 2,380 - 2,400; the support range of the corn starch 05 contract is 2,540 - 2,550, and the resistance range is 2,740 - 2,750 [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Wednesday, the main contract of soybean No. 1 increased in position and rose during the session, closing at 4,679 in the afternoon (daily change of 46 or 0.99%). Currently, the soybean sources are relatively concentrated, and there is still an expectation of replenishing inventory downstream. The futures price of soybean No. 1 may still be easy to rise and difficult to fall. Consider holding long positions lightly. The resistance level of the 05 contract of soybean No. 1 is 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4,500 - 4,550 yuan/ton [7]. - **Live Pigs**: On Wednesday, the futures price of live pigs increased in position and stopped falling and rebounded. After the spot price fell below the cash flow, the breeding side showed a sentiment of reluctant to sell. On the first day after the Spring Festival, the futures price of live pigs opened low and went low to make up for the decline of the spot price during the holiday. The national average price was 10.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 0.70 yuan/kg compared to before the holiday. This week, the slaughter volume was at a seasonal low, and slaughtering enterprises were still in losses. In January, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. Currently, it is 101.6% of the normal reserve, and the inventory of breeding sows is still relatively sufficient. After the Spring Festival, the price of piglets slightly dropped to about 360 yuan/head, and self - breeding and self - raising returned above the cost. Currently, the far - month contracts of live pig futures show a premium over the near - end spot and near - month contracts. The pressure on the near - end spot is relatively large, and the monthly pattern maintains near - weak and far - strong. Wait for further confirmation of capacity reduction in the medium term, and the far - month premium may continue to widen. Cautious investors can hold long positions in far - month contracts. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,200 as the support level and 12,000 - 12,300 as the resistance level. Aggressive investors can wait for the release of spot pressure in the medium term and lightly go long on the 2607 contract below 12,000. For options, hold a covered call strategy combination, that is, hold long futures positions + sell deep out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the systematic fluctuations of the agricultural product sector [7]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the futures price of eggs opened low, rose, and fluctuated widely. After the Spring Festival, the futures price of eggs was strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. The far - month contracts increased in position and declined to repair the excessive discount to the spot price. After the spot price of eggs dropped to about 2.7 yuan/jin before the festival, it slightly opened higher to around 2.9 yuan/jin in the low - price areas after the festival. Currently, the average cash cost of eggs in the industry has decreased to 2.85 - 2.95 yuan/jin following the prices of corn and soybean meal, and the breeding profit has turned positive. Since farmers have continued to suffer deep losses since the fourth quarter, the number of culled chickens has also increased. At the same time, the number of newly - opened laying hens in February was small, which alleviated the supply pressure to some extent, and the supply - demand pressure may continue to improve. In terms of futures prices, the premium of the far - month peak - season contracts of eggs over the current off - season spot price has widened. Cautious investors are recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can go long on the 04 contract below 3,000 points. Be cautious about shorting near - month contracts in the historical low - price range. The support level of the 2604 contract is 3,000 - 3,100 points, and the resistance level is 3,390 - 3,420 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean No. 1 05**: The domestic soybean sources are relatively concentrated, and there is still an expectation of replenishing inventory downstream. The price of soybean No. 1 may still be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - **Soybean No. 2 05**: The expectation of US soybeans is positive, driving up the prices of domestic soybeans. Pay attention to whether imported soybeans will be auctioned later. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Temporarily wait and see [11]. - **Soybean Oil 05**: The confrontation between the US and Iran has escalated, and the rise of international crude oil has driven up the prices of vegetable oils. The expectation of the US biodiesel policy is positive, and the trends of US soybeans and US soybean oil are strong. The upward driving force of Dalian soybean oil continues. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner. Hold long positions [11]. - **Rapeseed Oil 05**: There are positive factors, but the own driving direction still needs to pay attention to the evolution of China - Canada and US - Canada trade relations. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Be cautious about short - term long positions [11]. - **Palm 05**: The high - frequency export data is negative, but there are still expectations for the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first quarter. It is expected to run in a volatile manner. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after stabilizing [11]. - **Soybean Meal 05**: US soybeans are running strongly, the Brazilian premium is firm, and the downstream consumption of Chinese soybean meal still has resilience. Soybean meal may bottom out and rebound. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05**: The supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the tariff policy is still variable. It is expected to run in a volatile manner. Wait and see or conduct range operations [11]. - **Corn 05**: There is still pressure to sell grain after the festival, but the phased supply - demand mismatch support still exists. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Adopt a short - long thinking [11]. - **Starch 05**: It follows the cost of corn and fluctuates within a range. Adopt a short - long thinking [11]. - **Live Pigs 05**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. It is expected to find the bottom in a volatile manner. Consider lightly trying long positions [11]. - **Eggs 05**: The number of newly - opened laying hens has decreased, and there is an expectation of the consumption peak season. It is expected to find the bottom in a volatile manner. Wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties such as soybean No. 1 3 - 5, soybean No. 2 3 - 5, soybean oil 5 - 9, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. For the corn 5 - 9 spread, it is recommended to go short on rallies [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For most spreads such as 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, etc., it is recommended to wait and see. The 05 rapeseed oil - rapeseed meal ratio is treated as bullish [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean oil, etc. [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures price, CNF arrival price, and arrival duty - paid price [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and opening rate of various fats and oils, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills, etc. [18][19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF price, arrival duty - paid cost, and additional tariffs on the US [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the consumption, inventory, opening rate, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It shows the spot prices of live pigs and eggs in different regions and their price changes [20][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the weekly average prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other information of live pigs and eggs [22][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and other related price charts [25][27][28]. - **Fats and Oils**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and other data charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [35][42][47]. - **Feed**: It includes the price, inventory, consumption, and other data charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [51][64][72]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils It provides the historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put -

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced the termination of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, including a 10% tariff on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, which will significantly impact U.S.-China trade relations [3][5] - Following the cancellation of the IEEPA tariffs, the average tariff on Chinese goods has decreased from approximately 30%-40% to about 24%, but the introduction of a new 15% tariff on February 24 will keep the average tariff around 39% [5][7] - The Chinese government has made it clear that it will respond to any unilateral tariff increases from the U.S., indicating a potential for continued trade tensions [7] Group 2 - The changes in U.S. tariff policies have led to increased demand for imports in the U.S., with ports preparing for a surge in goods as American importers rush to stock up on products [9] - The adjustments in tariffs have positively influenced Chinese assets, with significant increases in the Hong Kong stock market and a strengthening of the Chinese yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards Chinese markets [11] - The current geopolitical climate and U.S. tariff changes are seen as beneficial for the Chinese economy, suggesting a potential for increased stability and value in Chinese markets moving forward [11]

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn May contract closed at 2341 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.21%, marking a nine-month high, and a notable increase in trading volume of over 43,000 contracts [4][11] - Grassroots corn purchasing has restarted, but overall volume is affected by the resumption progress and current prices, which may become more apparent after the Lantern Festival [4][11] - Post-Spring Festival, deep processing enterprises are starting operations faster than grassroots purchasing, with a reinforced demand for inventory replenishment, leading to price increases of 5-10 CNY/ton at ports like Bayuquan [4][11] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The overseas market is closely monitoring China's response to the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of the IEEPA tariff framework, with significant fluctuations in CBOT soybean prices [4][11] - Forecasts indicate abundant rainfall in Brazil's Midwest, potentially disrupting harvesting progress but not affecting yield expectations; Argentina's other production areas are expected to receive less than 15mm of rain, maintaining growth pressure on soybeans [4][11] - The domestic soybean meal market lacks marginal new information, with expectations to follow U.S. market trends, focusing on the arrival schedule of imported soybeans in March and reserve auction progress [4][11] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price for eggs in Hebei's Guantao increased to 2.77 CNY/jin, up 0.07 CNY/jin from the previous day, indicating a recovery after a post-holiday decline [12] - The inventory pressure from the holiday is expected to be released, with the traditional consumption off-season exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance, leading to a potential acceleration in price decline [12] - A cautious bearish outlook is maintained for near-month contracts, with JD2603 and JD2604 under pressure from falling spot prices, while long-term contracts like JD2605 and JD2608 may be considered for gradual accumulation [12] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average spot price for live pigs in major production areas is 10.93 CNY/kg, facing significant downward pressure, with expectations of accelerated price declines after the tenth day of the lunar new year [13] - The supply-demand dynamic remains strong supply and weak demand, putting pressure on near-month contracts, while long-term contracts like LH2609 may be considered for bullish positioning after verifying capacity reduction data [13] - Projections suggest that the turning point for pig prices is likely to occur in the second quarter of 2026, with a gradual shift from oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass to trade weakly in a range [1][7][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][10][11][13][14][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC; low - level rebound for caustic soda; selling short on rallies for soda ash; strong - biased oscillation for styrene; range trading for rubber, urea, methanol; weak - biased oscillation for polyolefins [1][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Strong - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn; oscillation for apples and jujubes [1][24][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract of live pigs, selling short on rallies; selling short on rallies for near - month egg contracts if culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short - selling on rallies for soybean meal; buying on dips for oils [1][28][29][30] Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the impacts of policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors on different futures markets [1][5][8][10] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, buy on dips. AI concerns boost precious metals, and the market may be strong before the Two Sessions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Oscillation. Despite supply pressure, the bond market may continue the bull market if the pressure can be digested [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The tariff game continues, and the steel price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to low valuation and weak driving forces [8] - **Glass**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply reduction and demand weakness coexist, and there are potential risks and uncertainties [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest buying on dips. Supply is tight, demand is resilient, and copper remains a strategic resource [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is expected to improve, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains [11] - **Nickel**: Suggest buying on dips moderately. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price [13] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is in a recovery trend [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical events and economic data affect the prices, and the mid - term price centers are rising [14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. Supply and demand factors coexist, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, but there are potential opportunities from policies and exports [16][18] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level rebound. Supply pressure is large, and the price may be supported if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [18] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price may be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Styrene**: Strong - biased oscillation. Low inventory during the Spring Festival and export support the price, but supply may increase in March [19][20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is in the off - season, and demand is expected to support the price [20] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, and demand is supported by agricultural and industrial needs, with stable prices [21] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand is weak, and the market is weak [22][23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply is high, demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulates [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - biased oscillation. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be strong after the festival [24] - **Apples**: Oscillation. The trading volume of different grades of apples varies in different regions [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillation. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes varies by region [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract, selling short on rallies. Short - term price is under pressure, and long - term price depends on capacity reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Selling short on rallies for near - month contracts if culling does not accelerate. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak after the festival [28] - **Corn**: Range trading. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is relatively loose [29] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - selling on rallies. Global supply is abundant, and domestic supply is loose from March to June [29][30] - **Oils**: Buying on dips. After the Spring Festival, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market higher, with different performances among varieties [30][31][32][33][34][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs, yet the Trump administration continues to pursue other methods to increase tariffs [1] - The ongoing debate over tariffs involves both political parties, the government, and businesses, indicating that negotiations will persist [1] - The House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that Congress and the federal government will decide on the "best way forward" in the coming weeks [1] Group 2 - Recent studies indicate that the tariffs imposed are primarily borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, contradicting the government's claim that foreign exporters bear the cost [1] - The potential refund amount related to the Supreme Court's tariff ruling is estimated at $175 billion, leading to prolonged disputes between U.S. importers and the government over refunds [1] - Over 1,000 companies, including major firms like Costco and Reebok, have joined legal actions seeking refunds for tariffs already paid [2]

Group 1 - Concerns over the potential impact of AI on corporate profits and ongoing tariff uncertainties have led to a decline in the US stock market, with bonds rising [1][4] - The S&P 500 index fell nearly 1%, with software stocks leading the decline, particularly DoorDash and American Express [1][4] - Bitcoin briefly dropped below $65,000, while gold prices increased [1][4] Group 2 - Following the US Supreme Court's ruling to abolish President Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs, the White House responded with a new 15% global tariff [3][6] - The EU has frozen the approval process for trade agreements with the US until further clarity on tariff plans is provided, adding economic uncertainty to transatlantic relations [3][6] - Michael Landsberg from Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management indicated that tariff disputes may continue to disrupt the market for the remainder of the year, but volatility is expected to be less than the initial shock experienced in April of last year [3][6] Group 3 - US Treasury yields have declined, despite traders fully pricing in the Federal Reserve's next rate cut expected in September [3][6] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that his support for a rate cut in the next meeting will depend on upcoming employment data [3][6] - A winter storm is affecting the New York area, but both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq plan to operate normally on Monday [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the IEEPA are illegal, including the equal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs, leading to potential changes in the tariff landscape [1][7][47]. Group 1: Supreme Court Tariff Ruling - The Supreme Court's ruling deemed IEEPA tariffs illegal due to violations of the principles of clear authorization and significant issues, affecting fentanyl tariffs (20% for China, 25% for Canada and Mexico) and global equal tariffs (10% base tariff) [1][7][47]. - The actual execution of the ruling may be delayed until late March to early April, with the ruling's effective date being February 20, 2026 [1][7][47]. - The probability of full refunds for IEEPA tariffs is low, but partial refunds are more likely, depending on how lower courts handle the relief scope [1][9][48]. Group 2: Trump's Response Strategy - Trump may seek to maintain the current tariff framework to avoid losing tariff gains, but significant upgrades may not occur due to electoral pressures [3][10][49]. - Following the ruling, Trump announced a global tariff increase from 10% to 15%, exempting key products, which may serve as a transitional measure for future tariffs [3][10][14][49]. - A potential gap in tariffs may arise in July, with the expiration of the 122 tariffs, leading to possible adjustments in existing 301 tariffs [3][10][15][49]. Group 3: Future Tariff Landscape - The invalidation of IEEPA tariffs could increase the federal deficit rate by 0.5-0.6 percentage points, with IEEPA tariffs accounting for 47.8% of U.S. tariff revenue in FY2025 [4][17][50]. - Without alternative measures, the effective U.S. tariff rate could decrease by approximately 7 percentage points, with the rate for China dropping from 31% to 15.4% [4][29][50]. - The tariff landscape may evolve into a new phase characterized by increased uncertainty, a gradual exit from universal tariffs, and a shift towards more targeted measures [6][42][51].

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Japan, including 25% on automobiles, 30% on steel, and 20% on semiconductors, leading to a combined market value loss of $68 billion for major Japanese companies like Toyota, Nippon Steel, and Tokyo Electron [1][3] - The tariffs target critical sectors where Japan has substantial exports to the U.S., with automobiles making up 32% of Japan's exports to the U.S., steel 38% of U.S. steel imports, and semiconductors being vital for the U.S.-Japan alliance [3][5] - Japan's response to the tariffs is heavily influenced by security concerns, as the U.S. nuclear umbrella is crucial for Japan's defense against regional threats, and any retaliatory measures could jeopardize this protection [5][7] Group 2 - Japanese companies are under pressure to comply with U.S. demands due to their significant revenue dependence on the U.S. market, with Toyota deriving 30% of its profits from North America and Nippon Steel having 40% of its high-end steel sales directed to U.S. automakers [5][7] - Japan lacks effective countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, with limited resources to leverage, such as a three-month supply of rare earths and a substantial holding of U.S. Treasury bonds that could backfire if sold [7] - The U.S. strategy appears to be to use Japanese investments to fill its own gaps in the semiconductor industry while simultaneously benefiting from Japanese market access to support its automotive workforce [7]