核心观点 2022年俄乌冲突金融制裁，市场意识到美元基础——国际金融秩序可被美国随意修改，所以黄金飙涨，具备跨境交易便利性的比特币也飙 涨。 2025年世纪性关税博弈落地，市场认识到金融秩序基础——经贸秩序可被美国亲自掀翻，所以黄金飙涨，代表美国信用的美债美元一度同 跌。 未来市场将见证构筑美元潮汐循环的基础之一——科技吸引力，不再美国一枝独秀。届时美元循环持续性将受质疑，黄金仍涨，这是黄金看 涨的中期逻辑。 展望短期， 2026年大概率美国AI持续，全球经历资本开支增扩的短暂繁荣，铜金将完成教科书般完美接力，2026年金价或弱于2025年，值得 期待的是铜。 直到新秩序框架明朗，新的强势国际货币走向台前，届时黄金的"黄金"时代迎来真正句号，这是黄金的长期逻辑。 摘要 去年全球大类里面表现最好的资产是贵金属，尤其是银。年末白银巨幅震荡，虽说背后有逼仓的交易行为干扰，但市场对2026年贵金属的走 势开始有了新的思考和讨论。 2025年是贵金属飙涨大年；2026年还依然是金银贵金属"狂舞"的大年么？ 我们知道2022年之后黄金为代表的贵金属，经历的行情堪比1970s。本轮黄金上涨一再创新高，也一再打破传统框架预测 ...

1 月，央行暂停国债买卖，资金面收敛使得机构博弈资本利得的顺畅逻辑受阻， 负 carry 环境下短端品种出现明显调整压力，长端下行放缓。 2 月，资金紧势远超预期，叠加权益、基本面等多重利空，债市做多逻辑有所 松动，短端利率大幅上行开始传导至长端，收益率曲线平坦化上移。 3 月，两会经济主题发布会央行态度偏鹰压制债市情绪，收益率上行至年内高 点 1.89%，随后税期和季末时点央行投放偏积极，债市呈现企稳修复态势。 债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 再见 2025：利率债复盘 ——2025 年债市复盘系列之一 ❖ 第三阶段：关税摩擦与稳增长政策博弈，收益率下台阶后转向震荡 4 月，"对等关税"幅度超预期，国内经济预期有所下修，债市交易经济走弱和 宽松预期，收益率自 1.80%经历两日大幅下行后至 1.64%，此后转向震荡。 5 月，降准降息、降低大行存款挂牌利率先后落地，债市演绎利多出尽，同时 关税摩擦阶段性缓和，提振风险偏好，收益率震荡上行突破 1.7%。 6 月，超四万亿存单到期，央行月内两次操作买断式逆回购释放"宽货币"信 号，中美达成新协议叠加陆家嘴论坛主要聚焦监管问题，收益率小幅下行，回 ...

Core Points - The trade negotiations between the US and EU are ongoing despite a July agreement, with both sides expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of implementation [1][2] - The US is pushing for the EU to eliminate certain regulations viewed as non-tariff barriers, while the EU remains firm on its digital laws [2][5] - The EU is seeking modifications to the July agreement to create a more balanced trade relationship, facing scrutiny from the European Parliament [5][6] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The recent high-level meeting in Brussels involved US Commerce Secretary and Trade Representative discussing trade issues with EU officials [1] - The US plans to impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU has promised to eliminate tariffs on US industrial products [2] - The EU is requesting exemptions for sensitive products, including pasta, cheese, and wine, from US tariffs [4][7] Group 2: Regulatory Pressures - The US is urging the EU to revise its digital and climate regulations, which are perceived as trade barriers [2][5] - The EU is maintaining a unified front in negotiations, avoiding individual country demands that could lead to division [6] - There is a lack of consensus within the EU regarding the trade agreement, with varying opinions among member states [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade framework agreements between the United States and several Latin American countries, along with potential tariff reductions for Switzerland, signify a new phase in the global tariff negotiations, driven by domestic inflation pressures and the need for economic resilience [1][3][7]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached trade framework agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador, and El Salvador, focusing on reducing tariffs on agricultural products such as bananas, coffee, and cocoa, which are not sufficiently produced domestically [5][6]. - The agreement with Argentina is the most comprehensive, offering preferential market access for U.S. pharmaceuticals, chemicals, machinery, IT products, medical devices, and automobiles [6]. Group 2: Domestic Influences - The acceleration of tariff negotiations is partly due to rising domestic inflation, particularly in food prices, which has created pressure on the government following recent local elections [7][9]. - The U.S. government is considering adjustments to tariffs on food-related imports, indicating a more flexible approach to tariff strategies [9]. Group 3: Legal and Political Context - The U.S. government faces legal challenges regarding the president's authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which could impact existing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China [11]. - Despite these legal uncertainties, negotiations continue as countries seek favorable agreements, driven by the fear of falling behind competitors who have already secured deals [11]. Group 4: Global Trade Responses - In response to U.S. tariff policies, countries are actively seeking diversified trade partnerships to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [13][14]. - The European Union is expanding trade partnerships globally, while ASEAN countries are leveraging regional agreements to enhance economic integration [15]. - Multilateral trade systems are being reinforced, with initiatives aimed at strengthening global trade frameworks amidst current trade disruptions [15].

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of food items in CPI recorded a decline of -2.9%, narrowing the drop by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by -2.1% year-on-year in October, improving by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[16] - From July to October, the PPI year-on-year declines were -3.6%, -2.9%, -2.3%, and -2.1%, indicating a trend of monthly recovery[4] - The overall industrial product PPI decreased by -2.7% from January to October[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The rise in both CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest a potential need for further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[5] - The PPI is expected to continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving upstream prices[5] - Monitoring marginal changes in indicators such as food prices, oil prices, and coal prices is recommended[5] Group 4: Risks - Risks include potential underperformance in consumer recovery, unexpected economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export growth rate turned negative in October, which was lower than expected, mainly due to the high base last year, tightened trade relations, and the misalignment of the Mid - Autumn Festival. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the export situation in the future [1][2][6] - The import growth rate also declined in October, and the trade surplus was lower than market expectations [5] - The export in the fourth quarter may be weaker than that in the third quarter, but external demand has not significantly deteriorated, and there are positive signals in high - frequency data [6][7][8] - The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and the tariff game entering a "quiet period" may provide a stable external environment for equity assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Export Situation in October - **Overall Export**: In October, the year - on - year export growth rate was - 1.1% in US dollars, the first negative growth since March this year, lower than the market forecast of 2.9% and the previous value of 8.3%. The month - on - month growth rate was - 7.0%, also significantly lower than the average value of the past five years [1] - **By Product Category**: Integrated circuits, automobiles (including chassis), and ships performed well, with year - on - year export growth rates of 26.9%, 34.0%, and 68.4% respectively. Other mechanical and electrical products generally performed poorly. Consumer electronics and labor - intensive product exports weakened. The decline in furniture and home appliance exports may be related to the increase in tariffs [3] - **By Export Destination**: The decline in exports to the US slightly narrowed, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 25.2% and the proportion in total exports rising to 11.4%. Exports to ASEAN and the EU slowed down, with year - on - year growth rates of 11.0% and 0.9% respectively, and the shares remained stable [4] 3.2 Import Situation in October - The year - on - year import growth rate was 1.0% in US dollars, lower than the market forecast of 2.7% and the previous value of 7.4%. The month - on - month growth rate turned negative at - 9.5%, also lower than the average value of the past five years. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, lower than the market forecast and the previous value [5] - By major imported commodities, the import growth rate of integrated circuits decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 10.2%, while the import growth rates of iron ore, soybeans, and crude oil increased [5] 3.3 Outlook for the Future - **Export Outlook**: Although the export declined significantly in October, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The decline was affected by the high base last year and the misalignment of the Mid - Autumn Festival. External demand has not significantly deteriorated and is expected to recover further after the tariff risk decreases. High - frequency data shows positive signals [6][7][8] - **Asset Outlook**: The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and there is no sign of a trend - based market yet. The tariff game entering a "quiet period" may provide a stable external environment for equity assets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between China and the U.S. has left India in a precarious position, as it has become a victim of the U.S.-China trade war, with significant repercussions for its economy and exports [1][2]. Group 1: India's Trade Dynamics - Modi's strategy of balancing relations with both Russia and the U.S. has backfired, leading to increased tensions and punitive tariffs from the U.S. [3][5]. - India is now the world's largest buyer of Russian oil, importing 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024, which has drawn the ire of the U.S. [4]. - The U.S. has imposed a 50% punitive tariff on Indian exports, severely impacting India's competitive position in the global market [6][11]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The punitive tariffs have led to a collapse in India's exports to the U.S., particularly in key sectors such as textiles, jewelry, and seafood, with orders evaporating by nearly 40% [11][13]. - The economic situation has forced the Indian government to reconsider its diplomatic approach, with the foreign minister making multiple visits to Washington in a short period [13]. Group 3: India's Global Standing - While the U.S. and China have reached a consensus, India finds itself sidelined, lacking the leverage to negotiate favorable terms [14][16]. - India's aspirations to become the "world's factory" and replace China are challenged by its infrastructural and logistical shortcomings, as well as a lack of trust from both the U.S. and China [18][19]. Group 4: Conclusion - The recent developments highlight India's miscalculations in foreign policy, as it has not emerged as a winner in the ongoing trade disputes, but rather as an unintended casualty [20][21].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S. monetary policy, U.S.-China relations, and the implications for global capital markets, particularly focusing on technology and manufacturing sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy** - After the October rate cut, Powell's hawkish stance on inflation reduced expectations for further cuts in December, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3][4] - The probability of a December rate cut decreased from over 90% to around 60% due to persistent inflation and trade uncertainties [3] 2. **Impact of the Fourth Plenary Session and U.S.-China Meeting** - The domestic capital market showed muted performance post the Fourth Plenary Session, with weak economic data and restrained fiscal policy [1][5] - The U.S.-China meeting indicated a shift in competition towards technology and security, moving away from explicit restrictions to competitive investments [1][9] 3. **U.S.-China Trade Dynamics** - The trade war aims to reshape global supply chains, with the U.S. using tariffs to shift production to third countries, benefiting all parties involved [10][11] - The trade conflict is expected to gradually ease by 2025, with technology investments becoming the main pricing driver in global capital markets [12] 4. **China's Manufacturing Sector Evolution** - China's high-end manufacturing has seen significant upgrades, with production shifting to other countries as GDP per capita rises [13] - This rapid upgrade in the industrial chain is a key reason for the swift resolution of recent tariff disputes [13] 5. **Future Economic Policies and Market Predictions** - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is crucial for domestic asset performance, with expectations of limited policy changes in November [6][7] - The focus on technology and high-quality growth will dominate China's economic planning for the next five years [16][17] 6. **Commodity Market Outlook** - Copper prices are expected to perform well due to increased demand from a new industrial revolution, with significant price increases anticipated in 2025 [20][22] - The outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing monetary easing, despite potential volatility in 2026 as competition shifts [23] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Global Capital Market Trends** - The transition from uncertainty to a new production order post the U.S.-China meeting is expected to improve the investment environment in 2026 [14] - The focus on technology investments will significantly influence asset pricing and market dynamics [19] 2. **U.S. Midterm Elections Impact** - The 2026 midterm elections will likely shift U.S. policy focus back to domestic economic issues, emphasizing social welfare and inflation concerns [15] 3. **Debt Market Outlook** - The bond market is expected to present trading opportunities in Q4 2025, with a cautious outlook for 2026 as risks are anticipated to rise [24][25]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on China, highlighting that these measures are increasingly ineffective and may harm the U.S. itself [1] - China has tightened its export controls on rare earth elements, which are crucial for various industries, including high-tech and military, putting pressure on the U.S. [3] - Following Trump's announcement of new tariffs, the U.S. stock market reacted negatively, indicating the potential economic repercussions of such policies [5] Group 2 - A report from The New York Times reveals that nearly half of the raw materials for over 700 imported drugs in the U.S. come from China, emphasizing the dependency of the U.S. pharmaceutical industry on Chinese supplies [7] - If China were to impose similar restrictions on pharmaceutical raw materials as it did with rare earths, it could severely disrupt the U.S. drug industry [9] - The U.S. pharmaceutical sector has largely outsourced raw material production to countries like China due to high domestic production costs, which are significantly higher than those in China [11] Group 3 - The instability of Indian pharmaceutical products makes U.S. companies prefer sourcing from China, despite the potential for increased costs due to tariffs [13] - The U.S. government has previously delayed imposing tariffs on pharmaceuticals due to backlash from domestic drug companies concerned about rising drug prices [15] - The article highlights the critical nature of certain drugs, such as "cisplatin," which are essential for cancer treatment, underscoring the potential health risks associated with supply disruptions [15] Group 4 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a situation where U.S. companies face significant challenges, as China's countermeasures target key sectors like technology and agriculture [17] - The article suggests that the U.S. government's attempts to impose tariffs have resulted in a complex situation where both sides experience pain, but the impact on U.S. consumers and businesses is more immediate [19] - Ultimately, the article argues that the trade conflict may necessitate a return to negotiations, as tariffs alone cannot resolve the underlying issues [19]

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from negotiation to a hardline stance against the U.S., indicating a loss of patience with the Trump administration's trade policies [1][3][24] Group 1: China's Stance and Strategy - China has clearly demonstrated a confrontational position against the U.S., showing no easy path for compromise, reflecting confidence in its own strength in the trade war [3][24] - The Chinese government has consistently implemented reciprocal measures in response to U.S. tariffs, indicating a firm resolve to resist pressure [3][21] - The strategic use of rare earth controls serves as a significant countermeasure, impacting U.S. high-tech and military industries due to China's central role in the global rare earth supply chain [5][19] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Diversification - The U.S. tariff measures are expected to negatively affect the domestic economy, as evidenced by the backlash from U.S. agricultural states against the Trump administration [5][19] - China's export market diversification has been effective, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from 19.2% in 2018 to an anticipated 10% by 2025, while exports to Europe, Russia, and other developing countries are on the rise [10][19] - The automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles, has seen significant growth, with exports exceeding 1.75 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a nearly 90% year-on-year increase [10] Group 3: Technological Independence and Strategic Adjustments - China's advancements in technology, particularly in semiconductors, have led to a reduction in reliance on U.S. imports, with domestic alternatives emerging in response to U.S. export restrictions [13][19] - The strategic shift towards energy import diversification has strengthened China's position, reducing dependence on U.S. energy supplies and enhancing energy security [19][21] Group 4: Response to U.S. Actions - China's recent measures, including the escalation of rare earth controls, are seen as a logical response to the U.S.'s increasing pressure and sanctions [15][19] - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized by a series of U.S. measures aimed at China, which have prompted China to enhance its resilience and risk management strategies [15][19] - The outcome of this prolonged conflict will depend on the determination and preparedness of both sides, with China having established a comprehensive response system over the years [24]