Group 1: Diplomatic Developments - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to India from August 18 to 20 aims to discuss military withdrawal and trade cooperation amidst ongoing border tensions [1][7] - The 24th meeting on border issues signifies a potential shift in communication mechanisms, focusing on establishing regular dialogue and reducing friction through verifiable agreements [2][11] Group 2: Economic Implications - China is taking concrete actions to restore trade confidence, such as approving 183 Brazilian coffee companies for export to China and enhancing trade facilitation measures with India [3][10] - India's response to U.S. tariffs includes a political mobilization against the 50% tariffs imposed on various sectors, indicating a strategic shift in its economic stance [5][7] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs on India, particularly the 50% increase affecting textiles, jewelry, and automotive parts, are expected to severely impact profit margins and lead to a decline in investment plans among Indian enterprises [5][10] - The focus on cooperation in low-sensitivity sectors like renewable energy components and IT services is seen as a way to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and enhance bilateral trade efficiency [3][8] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - India's cooperation with China is viewed as a means to create strategic redundancy and shift some risks away from reliance on the U.S., while China seeks to stabilize relations to alleviate uncertainties [7][8] - The ongoing diplomatic negotiations are crucial for both countries, as they navigate the complexities of trade and security in a changing global economic landscape [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China is characterized by a shift in dynamics, with China appearing to gain the upper hand as it remains steadfast in its position against U.S. pressure [1][19]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The atmosphere during the recent U.S.-China trade talks was tense, with China agreeing to a 90-day tariff pause while the U.S. hesitated, indicating that any agreement required Trump's approval [4][11]. - The U.S. introduced new demands, including halting Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil, framing it as a moral obligation to not support adversaries [5][6]. - China's response emphasized its commitment to national interests, stating that oil purchases are based on economic factors rather than political alignment [7][9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - China is the largest buyer of Russian oil, with daily purchases of 2 million barrels, and has acquired nearly 90% of Iran's oil exports, highlighting the economic rationale behind these transactions [7][8]. - The price advantage of Iranian oil, which is cheaper by $6-7 per barrel, illustrates the cost benefits that China prioritizes over political pressures [8][9]. - The U.S. strategy of using tariffs as leverage is undermined by China's robust supply chain and economic resilience, suggesting that tariffs alone cannot destabilize China's economy [11][12]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Alliances - Other countries, such as India and Brazil, have continued to engage in energy trade with Russia and Iran, respectively, indicating a broader resistance to U.S. sanctions [14][15]. - China's ability to withstand U.S. pressure has provided a model for other nations, encouraging them to follow suit in maintaining their economic interests [15][20]. - The U.S. finds itself in a precarious position, lacking strong allies and facing challenges in its diplomatic approach, which has led to a perception of weakness [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trade conflict has revealed a clear distinction in strategies, with China demonstrating strategic planning and stability while the U.S. relies on threats and emotional appeals [17][18]. - Regardless of the outcome of the current negotiations, China is prepared for future actions, indicating a long-term strategy to navigate the trade landscape [21][22].

Group 1 - The core argument highlights the power dynamics between the U.S. and India, emphasizing that Trump's confidence stems from U.S. dominance in chip design, military presence, and financial influence [1] - India's manufacturing sector has seen a decline in its GDP contribution from 16% to 14% over the past decade, falling short of the 25% target, indicating structural weaknesses in its economy [1] - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, significantly impacting labor-intensive industries, with Indian exporters facing a potential profit loss due to the high tariffs [3] Group 2 - Modi's government faces a dilemma as agriculture, which supports 42% of India's population, is at risk from U.S. demands to open markets, creating a political challenge for Modi [5] - The U.S. has delayed a trade delegation visit to India, coinciding with the impending implementation of punitive tariffs, putting India in a precarious position [5] - The relationship between the U.S. and India is strained due to conflicting interests in manufacturing development, leading to a zero-sum game scenario [7]

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Group 1: Macroeconomic Headwinds - The market is increasingly concerned about "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with the services PMI nearing the threshold and the price index soaring to 69.9%, a three-year high [2] - Investors are selling industrial metals like copper in favor of safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds due to fears of stagnant growth and high inflation [2] Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The tariff policy from the Trump administration has targeted the copper supply chain, imposing a 50% tax on semi-finished products like copper cables while exempting refined copper [3] - This has led U.S. wire importers to cancel orders and forced Chinese copper processing companies to relocate to Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Uncertainty - The sudden announcement of changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership has raised concerns about potential delays in interest rate cuts, prompting copper bulls to exit the market [4] - This uncertainty has contributed to increased market volatility and further depressed copper prices [4] Group 4: Inventory Dynamics - LME copper inventories surged by 14,275 tons (10.23%) on August 5, reaching a five-month high, primarily due to U.S. traders selling off during the tariff exemption window [7] - In contrast, the Chinese market is experiencing a shortage of copper, with significant price discrepancies between regions, indicating an underlying inventory crisis [7] Group 5: Industry Chain Challenges - Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to -42.09 USD/ton, resulting in losses for smelters [8] - The cost of production for Chilean copper has risen to 2.10 USD/pound, while smelters are struggling to maintain profitability [8] Group 6: Market Reactions - On August 6, stocks of copper companies like Tongling Nonferrous and Jiangxi Copper saw significant price increases, driven by speculation around policy expectations [9] - However, futures markets remain focused on real inventory levels and weak consumption, leading to narrow trading ranges for copper contracts [9] Group 7: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the demand for copper driven by electrification remains strong, with Tesla's Shanghai factory increasing copper cable orders by 35% year-on-year [10] - Strategic stockpiling activities by various entities, including the Chinese state reserves and U.S. military contractors, are also noteworthy [10] Group 8: Conclusion - The short-term fluctuations in copper prices are influenced by a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, tariff policies, supply chain dynamics, and market expectations [12] - The future trajectory of copper prices will depend on the resolution of these interrelated factors [12]

Core Points - The article discusses the recent increase in tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on 66 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 50%, marking a significant rise from historical averages [1][3] - The average tariff level has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy and its implications for global economics [3][7] - The article raises questions about the long-term effects of these tariffs on the global economy and the potential for a new multipolar world order [1][7] Tariff as a Fiscal Tool - Tariffs are being used as a fiscal tool, with the government expecting $87 billion in tariff revenue for the first half of 2025, significantly impacting low-income households [3][4] - The burden of tariffs is primarily falling on consumers, particularly low-income groups, exacerbating wealth inequality [3][4] Tariff as an Industrial Protection Measure - The article highlights the decline of U.S. manufacturing since the 1950s and suggests that tariffs are a misguided approach to revitalize the sector without structural reforms [4][5] - The lack of investment in infrastructure and human capital is noted as a critical issue that tariffs alone cannot address [4] Tariff as a Negotiation Tool - Tariffs are being used as leverage in trade negotiations, with claims of significant investment commitments from other countries often being overstated [3][5] - The article points out that without improving productivity, the U.S. risks reducing consumer purchasing power [5] Tariff as a Geopolitical Weapon - The differential tariff rates reveal political motivations, with certain countries receiving preferential treatment while others face punitive rates [5] - The article suggests that this approach may lead to a reconfiguration of global trade alliances and a move towards de-dollarization [5] Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Recent economic indicators show a decline in consumer spending growth and employment, raising concerns about the sustainability of the tariff policy [7] - The potential for Trump to reverse some tariffs in response to economic pressures is discussed, but the damage to U.S. credibility in international trade may be lasting [7]

Group 1 - The core issue is that Ford Motor Company is facing significant profit losses due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, estimating a loss of $2 billion to $3 billion this year [2][3] - Ford's supply chain is highly globalized, with thousands of parts sourced from overseas, making it particularly vulnerable to increased costs from tariffs on auto parts [3][4] - The company has expressed strong dissatisfaction with the tariffs, highlighting that while American manufacturers face a 25% tariff on parts, Japanese automakers benefit from a lower 15% tariff on vehicles exported to the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - The entire U.S. automotive industry is united in its opposition to the tariffs, with General Motors projecting a profit decline of $4 billion to $5 billion by 2025 due to tariffs [5] - The American Automotive Policy Council has warned that the tariffs could lead to an industry-wide cost increase of $108 billion, potentially affecting hundreds of thousands of jobs [6] - Even established foreign brands like Toyota and BMW are considering production adjustments in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts [6] Group 3 - The Trump administration's strategy to use tariffs to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. has resulted in unintended consequences, harming domestic manufacturers like Ford instead [7] - Ford is actively seeking exemptions or adjustments to the tariffs through daily discussions with the White House, but has not seen significant results [4][7] - The upcoming midterm elections may prompt a reevaluation of these tariff policies, with potential new strategies from the Democratic Party to address industry losses [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward trend in the cross-border logistics sector, with a decline of 1.68% in the cross-border logistics index [9][12]. Core Insights - The global container freight rates are on a downward trajectory, with the CCFI reporting 1232.29 points, a decrease of 2.30% month-on-month [7]. - The air cargo index BAI reported 2027 points, reflecting a decrease of 1.07% month-on-month, indicating a tightening in air freight capacity due to increased demand ahead of tariff deadlines [7]. - The report highlights significant developments in cross-border e-commerce, including new policies affecting import taxes and logistics costs in various regions, which may reshape market dynamics [15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Cross-Border Logistics Important News - New international air cargo routes have been established, with 20 new routes opened in July, totaling 137 routes for the year, enhancing the air freight network [18]. - The U.S. has announced the cancellation of the low-value import tax exemption for goods valued under $800, effective August 29, which will impact air cargo volumes [20] 2. Cross-Border Logistics Important Data Changes - The shipping price index shows a decline, with the SCFI at 1550.74 points, down 2.63% month-on-month, and the NCFI at 1087.66 points, down 2.06% [7]. - The air cargo index BAI30 and BAI80 also reported declines of 1.65% and 0.25% respectively, indicating a broader trend of decreasing air freight rates [7]. 3. Capital Market Perspective on Cross-Border Logistics - The cross-border logistics sector has seen a cumulative decline of 7.26% since the beginning of 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [12]. - The report notes a divergence in stock performance within the cross-border logistics sector, suggesting varying impacts on individual companies [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - As of July 29, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 770.70 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.33% [1] - The opening price for the day was 772.66 CNY per gram, with a maximum of 773.30 CNY and a minimum of 767.68 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro Economic News - Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [1] - U.S. Treasury Department forecasts a borrowing increase of 453 billion USD for Q3, raising the borrowing estimate to 1.007 trillion USD from April's prediction [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 96.9%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 3.1% [3] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The market's risk aversion is easing as the U.S. reaches agreements with Japan and the EU, while talks with China are ongoing [4] - Recent macro data from the U.S. shows resilience, reducing concerns about the deterioration of the U.S. economic fundamentals [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and policies is expected to lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, with precious metals likely to maintain high volatility in this uncertain environment [4]