1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's risk - aversion sentiment is easing due to the approaching effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs and the progress of trade talks. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the Fed's independence is also unclear. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and macro - economic data. Each metal has different trading strategies according to its specific situation [2][4]. 3. Summaries by Metal Types Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3314.63 per ounce; London silver closed flat at $38.17 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures fell 0.31% to 770.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.27% to 9200 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index rose 1% to 98.633, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.417%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.15% to 7.1787 [2]. Important资讯 - Trump may announce tariffs on drugs, with global tariffs around 15 - 20%. Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September is 35.4% [2]. Logic Analysis - Market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and the short - term rebound of the US dollar pressures precious metals. In the long run, precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility due to uncertainties [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79010 yuan per ton, up 0.04%, with the index reducing positions by 617 to 498300 lots. LME copper closed at $9762.5 per ton, down 0.34%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248000 tons [6]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion [6]. Logic Analysis - Market is affected by tariff expectations. Domestic smelters maintain high production, and supply and demand are weak [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term pressure and oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2509 contract fell 14 yuan to 3260 yuan per ton at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [12]. Important资讯 - Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental control notices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for the stable growth of key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10000 tons of alumina. The national alumina operating capacity increased by 1.1 million tons to 94.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 84.01% [12][14]. Logic Analysis - Speculative sentiment cools, and the price is under pressure. The theoretical surplus expands, and the inventory has been increasing since June [15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure and oscillating, pay attention to cost support. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 10 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton at night. Aluminum ingot spot prices in different regions fell [19]. Important资讯 - China's aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20000 tons to 514000 tons. The price law is being revised. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. Huafeng Aluminum plans to purchase at least 360000 tons of aluminum products from Shaanxi Non - ferrous Yulin New Materials Group [20][21]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors affect the market. Domestically, the inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and the spread between months may narrow first and then widen [22][24]. Trading Strategy - No specific strategy provided in the content. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 20055 yuan per ton at night. ADC12 alloy ingot spot prices in different regions fell [26]. Important资讯 - The weekly output of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 800 tons to 141600 tons, and the total inventory increased by 4600 tons to 132400 tons. The price law is being revised [27]. Logic Analysis - Supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and demand is affected by different types of orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [28]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure. - Arbitrage: Consider positive spread trading for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [29]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 0.83% to $2805.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.31% to 22665 yuan per ton. Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1756 to 222600 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were between 22670 - 22775 yuan per ton, and the spot premium slightly increased [33]. Important资讯 - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 103700 tons. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, and the output of refined zinc is expected to increase. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating [34][36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can be held, set stop - profit points. - Arbitrage: Buy put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [36]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.15% to $2017.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16945 yuan per ton. Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2285 to 99700 lots. Spot prices in different regions had different quotations, and the market trading was light [38]. Important资讯 - SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 71700 tons. Guizhou Lukong Environmental Protection Technology's smelting system was successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons of lead ingots. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [38][40]. Logic Analysis - The cost of recycled lead supports the price. The supply is affected by production inspections and losses, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has slightly improved [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable long positions can be held, beware of macro risks. - Arbitrage: Sell put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [43]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15230 per ton, and its inventory increased to 204036 tons. Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell to 122130 yuan per ton. Jinchuan nickel's premium increased to 2150 yuan per ton [42]. Important资讯 - Indonesia is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring a nickel smelter. A new nickel project in Indonesia is expected to start in Q4 2025, with an annual ore - processing target of 8 million tons [42][45]. Logic Analysis - The market atmosphere is weak, and the supply and demand of nickel are weak in July and August, with the price oscillating [45]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term follow the macro - atmosphere. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Sell deep out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel SS2509 contract fell to 12875 yuan per ton. Cold - rolled prices were 12550 - 12750 yuan per ton, and hot - rolled prices were 12300 - 12350 yuan per ton [48]. Important资讯 - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to drive the demand for stainless steel. A company plans to build a new stainless - steel slab continuous casting line with an annual output of 400000 tons [50]. Logic Analysis - The speculative atmosphere cools, and the demand is affected by tariffs and the off - season. The price is higher than the cost, and the market trades based on the macro - logic [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term return to the oscillation range. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [50]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures opened low, rose, and then hit the limit down. Spot prices generally weakened by 100 - 200 yuan per ton [52]. Important资讯 - There are rumors that the industry will hold an anti - involution meeting on August 4 [52]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, and the demand shows different trends. The price may fall in the medium - long term, but there may be a short - term rebound [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: May rebound in the short term, weak in the medium - long term. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread for 11, 12 contracts/positive spread for 11, 10 contracts, participate in the butterfly strategy. - Options: Hold the previous protective put options [54]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures hit the limit down three times and then closed at 49405 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in different ranges [56]. Important资讯 - The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [56]. Logic Analysis - The "anti - involution" sentiment affects the price. If the capacity - integration meeting has positive results, the long - term expectation may reverse [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Participate with a strategy of futures long positions + protective put options after the correction. - Arbitrage: Long polysilicon, short industrial silicon for the long - term; reverse spread for polysilicon far - month contracts [57]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The 2509 contract fell to 73120 yuan per ton, and the exchange's warehouse receipts increased to 12276 tons. Spot prices increased [59]. Important资讯 - The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world and China showed growth trends [59]. Logic Analysis - The price limit - down was affected by news. The price range is 67000 - 83560 yuan per ton, and there may be a low opening [60]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term speculative atmosphere is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Enterprises with long - term agreements can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [60]. Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 267310 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees showed different changes, and the market trading was light [63]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. The national industrial and information work conference was held [63]. Logic Analysis - Sino - US trade talks aim to extend the trade truce. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season [64]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price fluctuates with the market sentiment. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [64][66].