从产品、渠道及服务再看 PHM 龙头成长潜 力 核心观点 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年06月10日） | 50.38 元 | | 目标价格 | 62.16 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 59.08/18.58 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 8,743/8,670 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 4,405 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 计算机 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 06 月 11 日 | 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入增速、毛利率和费用率，我们预测公司 25-27 年的每股收益分别为 1.68、 2.22、2.91 元（原预测 25-26 年每股收益为 1.46/1.93 元），根据可比公司 25 年 PE 水平，给予公司 25 年 37 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 62.16 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 制造业转型升级不及预期，渠道改革进展不及预期 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3]. Core Insights - The company has returned to high growth due to management system reforms and is positioned in a vast blue ocean market, particularly benefiting from the rapid development of AI technology [3]. - The company is a leader in the Chinese PHM industry, actively building a partner ecosystem, expanding into new industries, and investing in AI technology [3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 584 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%, with a net profit of 107.52 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 71.49% [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 584 million yuan, with a net profit of 107.52 million yuan, exceeding market expectations [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.51%, and a net profit of -6 million yuan, showing a growth of 66.89% [1]. - The company's operating cash flow improved significantly, with 72 million yuan in 2024 and 7 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to negative cash flows in the previous year [8]. Industry and Market Position - The company is positioned in a rapidly growing market, with significant revenue growth in sectors such as metallurgy, coal, and non-ferrous industries [8]. - The number of connected devices has rapidly increased, with over 180,000 devices monitored, showcasing the company's technological advancements and market competitiveness [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3]. Core Insights - The company has returned to high growth with a significant improvement in cash flow, driven by management system reforms and a focus on AI technology in a rapidly developing market [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 584 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.21%, and a net profit of 107.52 million yuan, up 71.49% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 84 million yuan, a 37.51% increase year-on-year, although it recorded a net loss of 6 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 498.04 million yuan in 2023 to 1,362.79 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.29% [1]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 62.70 million yuan in 2023 to 278.72 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 43.54% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.72 yuan in 2023 to 3.19 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [1]. Industry and Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the PHM (Predictive Health Management) industry in China, with a strategy focused on building a partner ecosystem and expanding into new sectors [3]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI technology, with over 180,000 devices connected for remote monitoring and a robust database of over 30,000 industrial equipment failure cases [8].