Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX supply has recovered, with its inventory at a historical low and strong bottom support. Whether its profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors. Currently, it is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing. However, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although there are device maintenance expectations, new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season limit price increases. The market had a short - term upward trend but has since fallen back, and supply remains sufficient [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere. Supply - side quotes vary, and downstream buying enthusiasm has declined. The supply - side operating rate remains low, some specifications are in short supply, and downstream terminals are mainly consuming previous inventories [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner. Without more unexpected positive news, the TA2509, PX2509, and PR2509 contracts closed at 4706 yuan/ton (0.38%), 6778 yuan/ton (0.44%), and 5934 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively, with trading volumes of 44.47 million hands, 7.41 million hands, and 1.97 million hands [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, 2025, the futures settlement prices (continuous) of WTI and Brent crude oil were $63.96/barrel and $66.63/barrel respectively, up 0.13% and 0.06% from the previous values [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $568/ton, down 0.44%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $690/ton, up 0.07%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $835/ton, up 0.40% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4708 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.47% and 0.43%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4690 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.38% and 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4671 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA was 4695 yuan/ton (up 0.54%) and $622/ton (down 0.96%) respectively [1]. - **PX**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX main contract were 6778 yuan/ton and 6770 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.77% and 0.33%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6705 yuan/ton [1]. - **PR**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR main contract were 5934 yuan/ton and 5938 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.61% and 0.47%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 5922 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China were 5910 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 5950 yuan/ton (up 0.17%) respectively [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged at 6480 yuan/ton, 5870 yuan/ton, and 5910 yuan/ton respectively. The CCFEI price indices of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D were 8600 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), 7125 yuan/ton (up 0.35%), 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%), and 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%) respectively [2]. 2. Spread Changes - **PXN Spread**: On August 11, 2025, it was $267/ton, up 2.23% [1]. - **PX - MX Spread**: It was $145/ton, up 1.99% [1]. - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: It was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PTA**: It was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PX**: It was - 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of Polyester Bottle - chips in East and South China**: They were - 24 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, decreasing by 36 yuan/ton and 26 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained unchanged at 78.11% [1]. - **PTA Factory Load Rate**: It increased by 2.06 percentage points to 76.56% [1]. - **Polyester Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 87.09% [1]. - **Bottle - chip Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 71.93% [1]. - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 57.83% [1]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Polyester Filament Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 2 percentage points to 43% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: It decreased by 6 percentage points to 51% [1]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 8 percentage points to 97% [1]. 5. Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was shut down for maintenance on June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. 6. Important News - The supply - demand situation of international crude oil is weak, with high crude oil production in Brazil and Iran. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will affect oil prices. With the expected progress, geopolitical risks have declined, putting pressure on oil prices. Multiple reforming devices have been put into operation recently, and some PX devices have restarted one after another, leading to a recovery in PX supply [2].