PTA期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 下游协同减产会议落实，头部表示将减产15%，对PTA或形成采购减量。近期PTA成交基差继续保 持-55，下游实际开工或已跌至88%，除去临近年前下游正常季节性检修外，当下下游利润反而在此轮 行情中被压制，导致近期下游多个厂家进行协同减产，原料产销将有所下行，PTA库存略有累积，加上 近期资金开始逐渐减仓，PTA回落。但短期持仓仍然较大，且原油支撑和今年PTA供需向好，大幅回调 概率有限。 1月15日盘中，PTA期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至5032.00元。截止发稿，PTA主力合约 报5050.00元，跌幅1.87%。 机构 核心观点 五矿期货 PTA中期关注逢低做多机会 东海期货 PTA大幅回调概率有限 宁证期货 PTA震荡过渡 五矿期货：PTA中期关注逢低做多机会 后续来看，供给端短期维持高检修，需求端聚酯化纤利润压力较大，且受制于淡季负荷将逐渐下降，甁 片由于库存压力和下游淡季甁片负荷难以上升，预期短期延续去库后PTA进入春节累库阶段。估值方 面，PTA加工费在意外降负和较强预期下修复至正常水平，PXN在强预期下同样大幅反弹，明年 ...

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 4640.00 yuan, with a current price of 4636.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.29% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Minmetals Futures suggests a wait-and-see approach for PTA in the short term due to a decrease in supply-side maintenance and a shift towards slight inventory accumulation, while downstream polyester fiber load is expected to remain high despite inventory pressures [2] - Guosen Futures indicates that PTA may follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, with stable terminal demand and high operating rates in downstream polyester, although new production lines may lead to inventory accumulation in the medium term [3] - Guangzhou Futures projects that the PTA2601 contract will operate within a range of 4400-4800 yuan, influenced by geopolitical factors and a rebound in oil prices, which provide cost support [4]