陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、铜期货将偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、棕榈油期货 将偏强震荡 原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4730 和 4750 点，支撑位 4689 和 4660 点；IH2512 阻力位 3040 和 3060 点，支撑位 3020 和 3003 点；IC2512 阻力位 7500 和 7550 点，支撑位 7 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 ...

十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2）美国政府关门逾一周还无解：参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3）美 国国会预算办公室：上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元，与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4）普京：必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长：俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽，"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5）消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议，特朗普：以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议，本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 30 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：微光初现，政策托底 【市场资讯】1）中国央行：要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，用好证券、基金、保险公司 互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，抓好各项货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应。2）国 务院国资委召开国有企业经济运行座谈会：要带头坚决抵制"内卷式"竞争。3）"反内卷"初 露锋芒，中国 8 月规模以上工业企业利润同比大增 20.4%，创 2023 年 12 月以来最高增速， 扭转 7 月下滑 1.5%的势头。4）上海出台住宅品质提升新规，高品质住宅标准明确，阳台 面积计算方式重大调整。5）特朗普放狠话，政府关门要关就关、全怪民主党，众院拟休会 到下月；报道称特朗普拟周一在白宫约见国会两党领袖，应对关门危机；美国政府关门风 险高企，美联储依赖的 9 月非农就业报告或被迫延迟发布。6）美联储青睐通胀指标美核 心 PCE 物价指数 8 月环比增 0.2%符合预期，消费支出连续三个月增长。7）白宫称特朗普 的药品关税不适用于欧日等贸易协议方，不是 100%是 15%。8）特朗普芯片新政：要求生 产商国内产量与进口 1:1，未达标将征关税。9）美国司法部向最高法院表示：市场不会被 特朗普解雇库克吓到。美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but with the Fed's rate cut and conflicting outlooks, and prices at historical highs, there are risks of a market peak. For precious metals, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday. For other commodities, trading strategies vary based on their respective fundamentals [1]. - The supply and demand of various commodities show different characteristics. For example, some have tight supply, while others face oversupply or weak demand, which affects their price trends and trading strategies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold price settled at $3789 per ounce, up 0.25%. The US government shutdown risk increased, consumer spending in the US in August was strong, and Chinese industrial enterprise profits rose significantly. Gold ETF funds flowed in. There is a risk of a market peak, and it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - **Silver**: It followed gold to reach a new high. It is also recommended to partially close positions before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Friday. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to be strong in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is supported by high demand. It is expected to oscillate before the lithium mine in Jiangxi is put into production, and it is advisable to consider a call option strategy before the holiday [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate between 49,000 - 54,000 yuan. Pay attention to the 11 - 12 spread [3]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile view [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the rebar 2501 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2501 contract and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are weak, and the domestic market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The mid - term unilateral focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased significantly. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a high - level oscillation, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [6]. - **Eggs**: The demand is weakening, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [7]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [8]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is increasing, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term. It is recommended to short the processing margin of the far - month contract at high prices [8]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a bullish view in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: The seasonal improvement is obvious, and it is recommended to go long [8]. - **PP**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [8][9]. - **MEG**: Due to low inventory and macro - policy disturbances, it is recommended to close short positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream unexpectedly lowered the purchase price, and it is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on September 26, 2025, and also gives the expected trends for September 2025. It also provides information on macro - news and trading alerts, and analyzes the performance of various futures contracts on September 25, 2025 [2][7][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2512 has resistance at 4588 and 4600 points, support at 4550 and 4529 points; IH2512 has resistance at 2970 and 2981 points, support at 2946 and 2939 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7250 and 7300 points, support at 7139 and 7100 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7380 and 7459 points, support at 7245 and 7174 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 107.40 and 107.30 yuan, resistance at 107.72 and 107.83 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support at 113.5 and 113.0 yuan, resistance at 114.3 and 114.7 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2512 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 862.1 and 865.0 yuan/gram, support at 850.0 and 848.0 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2512 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 10600 and 10680 yuan/kg, support at 10411 and 10397 yuan/kg, and may hit a new high since listing [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range and will accumulate strength to attack the resistance at 83300 and 84000 yuan/ton, support at 82000 and 81500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2511 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 20860 and 20940 yuan/ton, support at 20740 and 20700 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 2900 and 2877 yuan/ton, resistance at 2942 and 2960 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2511 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 492 and 494 yuan/barrel, support at 485 and 483 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil futures contract FU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 2910 and 2929 yuan/ton, support at 2887 and 2873 yuan/ton. PTA futures contract TA601, PVC futures contract V2601, and bean meal futures contract M2601 are likely to oscillate weakly. Natural rubber futures contract RU2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 15210 and 15110 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Alerts - The Ministry of Commerce took multiple measures, including adding US entities to export - control and unreliable - entity lists, responding to Sino - US soybean trade issues, initiating trade - investment barrier investigations against Mexico, and launching an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US [7]. - The digital RMB international operation center was officially launched, and the tax department and platforms are preparing for the first tax - related information submission. The US Q2 GDP growth was revised upwards, and some Fed officials advocated for interest - rate cuts [8]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 25, 2025, IF2512, IH2512, and IC2512 showed different degrees of upward movement, while IM2512 showed a slight decline. The report also gives the expected trends for September 2025, all contracts are likely to oscillate in a wide range [12][13][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 oscillated weakly, and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 oscillated slightly upwards. The report gives the expected trends for September 26, 2025 [37][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 oscillated downwards, and the silver futures contract AG2512 oscillated upwards and hit a new high during the night session. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [45][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [56][61]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On September 25, 2025, various commodity futures such as crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [100][104][111].

金融期货早评 宏观：美国首申失业金人数下降 【市场资讯】1）美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%，创近两年新高，PCE 物价指数 2.6%。 美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人，为 7 月以来最低。2）所有在世的前美联储主席、 多位前财长和前白宫经济顾问致函最高法，不要解雇美联储理事库克！3）美联储理事米兰： 主张每次降息 50 个基点，通过"短暂且大幅"降息快速达到中性利率。美联储金融监管副主 席鲍曼：就业市场"脆弱"证明理应进一步降息。美联储明年票委呼吁利率工具改革：美联 储是时候准备新基准了。4）历史罕见！白宫警告政府关门期间或永久裁员，预算僵局再升 级。5）美国被爆施压韩国将投资承诺提高近 2000 亿美元、要现金不要贷款。 【核心逻辑】7-8 月作为三季度经济运行的核心观测期，其披露的数据系统呈现出当前宏 观经济的复杂态势：一方面，经济增速边际放缓的压力已明确显现，地产拖累、消费支撑 弱化、投资增速下行等信号共同构成了这一态势的核心底色；另一方面，政策端的逆周期 调节已精准发力，供需两侧的托底政策正按序落地实施；更深层次看，数据亦揭示了金融 市场与宏观基本面的结构性互动。股票市场在经济 ...