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商品期货早班车-20260401
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 03:19
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0
原油期货将震荡偏弱:股指期货将偏强震荡黄金、白银、丁二烯期货将震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:02
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in April 2026 [2]. - The report also analyzes the market performance of various futures on March 31, 2026, and provides short - term and long - term trend predictions for April 1, 2026, and the whole month of April 2026 [13][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information and Trading Tips - The US, Iran, and other countries have expressed their stances on the end of the war. The US is seeking an agreement to end the war, and Iran is willing to end the war under certain conditions [5]. - China's Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dar held talks and put forward five initiatives on the situation in the Gulf and the Middle East [6]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to use various policy tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation and maintain the stable operation of the financial market [7]. - China's economic sentiment has rebounded, with the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returning to the expansion range [7]. - The total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to February increased slightly year - on - year, while the total profit decreased. The asset - liability ratio increased [7]. - A number of national new regulations will be implemented from April [8]. - The Iran war may cause significant losses to the GDP of Arab countries, increase unemployment, and push more people into poverty. High - end estimates show that the GDP of some countries may shrink [8]. - The US may make a decision on NATO's future after the end of the military operation against Iran [8]. - Some Gulf countries hope that the US will continue the war against Iran, and Iran has warned against a possible US ground war [9]. - The US and Israel launched an attack on an Iranian steel plant [9]. - The Kansas Fed President warned about the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation [9]. - A US federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's termination of the legal status of hundreds of thousands of immigrants was illegal and required the restoration of their status [9]. - NASA announced the countdown to the launch of the "Artemis 2" mission [10]. - The US consumer confidence index rose in March, and inflation expectations increased [10]. - The eurozone's CPI increased in March, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates in April [10] 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On March 31, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.12% and COMEX silver futures up 6.77% [10]. - On March 31, US oil and Brent oil futures fell. The increase in US API crude oil inventories led to concerns about oversupply [11]. - The average price of regular gasoline in the US reached a nearly 4 - year high [12]. - On March 31, most London base metals rose [12]. - On March 31, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised [12]. - On March 31, the US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [13] 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On March 31, the main contracts of stock index futures such as IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 generally showed a downward trend. They faced resistance when rebounding and had increased downward pressure in the short term [13][14][15]. - In April 2026, these contracts are expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend, with specific support and resistance levels provided [18]. - On April 1, 2026, stock index futures are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend, with corresponding support and resistance levels [18] 3.2 Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AU2606 showed a slightly strong - oscillating trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [30]. - **Silver Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AG2606 showed a strong - oscillating upward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [38] 3.3 Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On March 31, the main contract CU2605 showed a slightly weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [42]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AL2605 showed an oscillating upward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [48]. - **Alumina Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AO2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both AO2605 and AO2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [55]. - **Carbonate Lithium Futures**: On March 31, the main contract LC2605 showed a significant downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend [56] 3.4 Building Material Futures - **Rebar Futures**: On March 31, the main contract RB2605 showed a slightly downward trend. In April 2026, both RB2605 and RB2610 are expected to be in a strong - wide - oscillating trend [63]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On March 31, the main contract I2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, both I2605 and I2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, I2605 is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [65][66]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On March 31, the main contract JM2605 showed a significant downward trend. In April 2026, both JM2605 and JM2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [72]. - **Glass Futures**: On March 31, the main contract FG605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both FG605 and FG609 are expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend [76]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On March 31, the main contract SA605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both SA605 and SA609 are expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend [80] 3.5 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil Futures**: On March 31, the main contract SC2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [85]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On March 31, the main contract FU2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high [89]. - **Asphalt Futures**: On March 31, the main contract BU2606 showed a slightly weak - oscillating trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [91] 3.6 Chemical Futures - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract L2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [93]. - **Polypropylene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract PP2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [98][99]. - **Styrene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract EB2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [104]. - **PTA Futures**: On March 31, the main contract TA605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [109]. - **PVC Futures**: On March 31, the main contract V2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend [114]. - **Methanol Futures**: On March 31, the main contract MA605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [119][120]. - **Ethylene Glycol Futures**: On March 31, the main contract EG2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [125]. - **Butadiene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract BR2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [128]
股指期货将偏弱震荡,碳酸锂、原油、燃料油、沥青、聚丙烯、苯乙烯、乙二醇期货将震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 13:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 31, 2026. Index futures are expected to be weakly volatile, while lithium carbonate, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polypropylene, styrene, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to be strongly volatile [1][2]. - The report also analyzes the impact of macro - news and market conditions on the futures market, such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Fed's interest - rate policies, and domestic and international economic policies [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - On March 30, 2026, the A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the non - ferrous metal sector surging and power stocks slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index hit a new low since early April last year [14]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed on March 30, 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.73%. European three major stock indexes closed up across the board [15]. 3.2 Macro - news - The G7 energy ministers, finance ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East situation on the energy market, global economy, and financial stability, and were prepared to take coordinated actions if necessary [9]. - The U.S. and Iran's negotiation progress was volatile, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and policy uncertainties increased, which affected the market sentiment [15]. 3.3 Futures Contracts Analysis 3.3.1 Index Futures - On March 30, 2026, the four major index futures contracts (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) generally showed a weakly volatile trend. In March 2026, they are expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, they are likely to continue this trend [11][12][13][15][16]. 3.3.2 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures: On March 30, 2026, the gold futures main contract AU2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [30]. - Silver futures: On March 30, 2026, the silver futures main contract AG2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [38]. 3.3.3 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures: On March 30, 2026, the copper futures main contract CU2605 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be weakly volatile [42]. - Aluminum futures: On March 30, 2026, the aluminum futures main contract AL2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [46]. - Tin futures: On March 30, 2026, the tin futures main contract SN2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [51]. 3.3.4 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the crude oil futures main contract SC2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [85]. - Fuel oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the fuel oil futures main contract FU2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [90]. - Asphalt futures: On March 30, 2026, the asphalt futures main contract BU2606 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [94]. - Polypropylene, linear low - density polyethylene, PTA, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, etc.: These futures contracts have different trends on March 30, 2026, and are generally expected to be strongly volatile in March 2026 and have corresponding trends on March 31, 2026 [99][103][112][117][121][126]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Futures - Palm oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the palm oil futures main contract P2605 oscillated upward. On March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [130].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20260331
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 01:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the content. The report mainly provides daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on March 31, 2026. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026. The basis values were -50.4, -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4 respectively, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 during this period [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 24 to March 30, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 30 was 540.36, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1641 [8]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 30 was -190 [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was -800 [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 30 was 3360 [11]. III. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on March 30 was 111.0 [20][21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was -44.0 [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the rebar to iron ore ratio on March 30 was 3.85 [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of copper on March 30 was -380 [30]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (82.55) [33]. V. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans on March 30 was 6 [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was -54 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios and spreads of various agricultural products from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the ratio of soybeans to corn on March 30 was 1.94 [40]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 30 was 77.95 [51]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was -19.8 [51].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年3月30日)-20260330
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 03:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 30, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][6][23][29][40][51] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from March 23 to March 27, 2026. The basis values are - 58.4, - 50.4, - 45.4, - 41.4, and - 40.4 respectively, and the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - From March 23 to March 27, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is 339.44, 345.10, 259.80, 50.55, and 105.35 respectively; the basis of fuel oil is 374.15, 208.78, 103.65, 222.50, and 151.50 respectively; the crude oil / asphalt ratio is 0.1762, 0.1686, 0.1668, 0.1624, and 0.1641 respectively [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads: For rubber, 5 - 1 is - 820, 9 - 1 is - 765, 9 - 5 is 55; for methanol, 5 - 1 is 369, 9 - 1 is 107, 9 - 5 is - 262; etc. - Inter - variety spreads: For example, on March 27, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 3187, LLDPE - PP is - 428, etc. - Basis: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided [11][12] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads: For example, for rebar, 5 - 1 is - 51.0, 9(10) - 1 is - 24.0, 9(10) - 5 is 27.0; for iron ore, 5 - 1 is 45.5, 9(10) - 1 is 19.5, 9(10) - 5 is - 26.0 - Inter - variety spreads: On March 27, 2026, the rebar / iron ore ratio is 3.84, the rebar / coke ratio is 1.7834, etc. - Basis: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided [22][23] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are presented, such as - 380 for copper on March 27, 2026 [32] 3.4.2 London Market - On March 27, 2026, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are provided, along with the Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss [35] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are given, such as 27 for soybeans on March 27, 2026 - Inter - period spreads: For example, for soybeans, 5 - 1 is - 50, 9 - 1 is - 6, 9 - 5 is 44 - Inter - variety spreads: On March 27, 2026, the soybean / corn ratio is 1.93, the soybean oil / soybean meal ratio is 2.95, etc. [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided, such as 75.17 for CSI 300 on March 27, 2026 - Inter - period spreads: For CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread is - 19.0, the next - quarter - current - quarter spread is - 81.8; for SSE 50, the next - month - current - month spread is - 4.2, the next - quarter - current - quarter spread is - 40.4; etc. [52]
东证期货技术分析周报2026年第13周-20260329
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-29 13:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on weekly technical indicator signals, different sectors of commodity and financial futures show various trends. In the commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors have different signals of rising, falling, or oscillation. In the financial futures, stock index futures mostly show bearish signals, while treasury bond futures show an oscillatory trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - Precious metals: Gold shows a bearish signal, and silver shows an oscillatory signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, aluminum shows a bearish signal, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a weekly "umbrella line" but no reversal, a shrinking MACD red column, and a narrowing Bollinger Band [9][10][13] 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coil, coking coal, and manganese silicon show bullish signals, and the rest, including European container shipping, show oscillatory signals. For example, rebar is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a flat weekly line, a MACD death - cross above the zero - axis on the daily line, and the price touching the MA60 [18][19][24] 3.3能源及化工板块 - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show oscillatory signals. In the chemical sector, soda ash, 20 - rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, pulp is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bearish monthly line, weakening upward momentum on the weekly line, and a MACD running below the zero - axis on the daily line [31][32][35] 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean oil, sugar, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, and red dates show bullish signals, soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, corn is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bullish weekly line but a shrinking red column and a MACD green column expanding on the daily line [40][41][45] 3.5股指期货板块 - Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 stock index futures all show bearish signals. For example, IC CSI 500 futures and IF SSE 300 futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [50][51][53] 3.6国债期货板块 - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all show oscillatory signals. For example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [62][63][66]
基差统计表-20260328
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2026-03-28 08:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].
周度期货价量总览-20260327
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 11:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data for various commodity categories, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the weekly closing prices, price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of each futures variety. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The weekly closing price was 998.66, with a weekly decline of 4.16%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.42%, a volatility increase of 56.31%, speculation degree of 3.36, trend degree of - 0.16, and a capital outflow of 148.28 [2]. - Silver: The weekly closing price was 17,489.00, with a weekly decline of 0.77%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 92.24%, a volatility increase of 9.26%, speculation degree of 4.69, trend degree of - 0.01, and a capital outflow of 11.14 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The weekly closing price was 95,930.00, with a weekly increase of 1.26%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 22.36%, a volatility increase of 12.87%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of - 0.07, and a capital outflow of 38.01 [2]. - Nickel: The weekly closing price was 137,100.00, with a weekly increase of 2.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 21.07%, a volatility decrease of 16.68%, speculation degree of 2.30, trend degree of 0.09, and a capital inflow of 15.03 [2]. - Tin: The weekly closing price was 362,460.00, with a weekly increase of 5.76%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 58.97%, a volatility decrease of 21.82%, speculation degree of 10.12, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital inflow of 3.39 [2]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The weekly closing price was 812.00, with a weekly decline of 0.43%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.63%, a volatility decrease of 4.06%, speculation degree of 0.60, trend degree of 0.06, and a capital inflow of 3.38 [2]. - Coke: The weekly closing price was 1,752.00, with a weekly increase of 0.66%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 32.76%, a volatility increase of 22.23%, speculation degree of 0.74, trend degree of - 0.19, and a capital inflow of 3.87 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weekly closing price was 1,219.00, with a weekly increase of 4.10%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.56%, a volatility increase of 44.94%, speculation degree of 2.91, trend degree of 0.02, and a capital inflow of 23.74 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The weekly closing price was 740.80, with a weekly decline of 4.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 119.65%, a volatility increase of 8.61%, speculation degree of 2.50, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 33.39 [2]. - Fuel Oil LU: The weekly closing price was 4,464.00 (5,157.00), with a weekly decline of 6.14% (- 7.78%), 20 - day annualized volatility of 99.40% (106.40%), a volatility increase of 14.65% (13.49%), speculation degree of 3.11 (1.95), trend degree of 0.08 (0.01), and a capital outflow of 18.59 (7.27) [2]. - Methanol: The weekly closing price was 3,296.00, with a weekly increase of 5.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 80.52%, a volatility increase of 5.60%, speculation degree of 3.38, trend degree of 0.30, and a capital inflow of 16.58 [2]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The weekly closing price was 15,395.00, with a weekly increase of 1.18%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.10%, a volatility decrease of 38.17%, speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of 0.21, and a capital inflow of 3.83 [2]. - Sugar: The weekly closing price was 5,464.00, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.71%, a volatility decrease of 5.49%, speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.20, and a capital inflow of 2.13 [2]. - Corn: The weekly closing price was 2,369.00, with a weekly decline of 0.75%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.80%, a volatility increase of 35.16%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital outflow of 0.41 [2]. Forest Products - Pulp: The weekly closing price was 5,202.00, with a weekly increase of 0.74%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.83%, a volatility decrease of 3.70%, speculation degree of 1.56, trend degree of 0.07, and a capital outflow of 8.97 [2]. Livestock Products - Eggs: The weekly closing price was 3,502.00, with a weekly increase of 2.73%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.48%, a volatility increase of 20.23%, speculation degree of 1.22, trend degree of 0.26, and a capital inflow of 2.72 [2]. - Hogs: The weekly closing price was 9,965.00, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.84%, a volatility decrease of 1.77%, speculation degree of 0.80, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital inflow of 11.64 [2]. Financial Futures - IC: The weekly closing price was 7,559.20, with no weekly change, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.33%, a volatility increase of 20.48%, speculation degree of 0.68, trend degree of 0.05, and a capital inflow of 3.18 [4]. - IF: The weekly closing price was 4,427.40, with a weekly decline of 1.32%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.01%, a volatility increase of 22.49%, speculation degree of 0.44, trend degree of 0.03, and a capital outflow of 18.92 [4]. - IM: The weekly closing price was 7,523.80, with a weekly decline of 0.48%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.45%, a volatility increase of 33.07%, speculation degree of 0.77, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 20.00 [4].
西南期货早间评论-20260327
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:45
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].
一、动力煤:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年3月27日)-20260327
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 01:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 27, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data reference for investors [1][6][21][27][38][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of power coal from March 20 to March 26, 2026. The basis values are - 66.4, - 58.4, - 50.4, - 45.4, and - 41.4 respectively, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are all 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides the basis data of energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from March 20 to March 26, 2026 [8]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are presented [10]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [11]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are provided [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The main contracts of rebar are in January, May, and October [20]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are given [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are provided [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are presented [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 26, 2026 are provided [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are presented [39]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are provided [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 20 to March 26, 2026 are presented [50]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50].