PTA需求淡季

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需求淡季限制PTA价格上行空间
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-11 01:17
Group 1 - PTA prices have recently experienced fluctuations and a downward trend due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a decrease in oil prices and consequently PTA costs [1][4] - The demand side is entering a low season, with significant declines in downstream operating rates, putting pressure on PTA supply and demand [1][3] Group 2 - The oil market currently lacks clear trading logic, with fluctuations primarily driven by geopolitical risk sentiment. The situation is currently manageable, and future attention should be on negotiations between the US and Iran [2] - OPEC+ is discussing a potential increase in production, with expectations of an increase of 410,000 barrels per day, which could lead to a total market supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - Despite strong demand during the peak season, oil prices may not strengthen due to significant supply pressures, with ongoing monitoring of actual demand needed [2] Group 3 - The textile industry's operating rates have significantly weakened, with weaving machine load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces dropping by 4 percentage points to 62%, and texturing load down by 7 percentage points to 69%, both at historical lows [3] - The period from May to July is typically a demand low season for weaving enterprises, with spring and summer orders completed and autumn and winter orders not expected until August [3] - As raw material prices decline, downstream enterprises face risks of low profits, weakened production and sales, and inventory devaluation, leading to a potential further reduction in operating rates [3] Group 4 - In the second quarter, PTA inventory rapidly decreased due to high polyester operating rates, but is expected to enter a phase of inventory accumulation as downstream loads weaken and some facilities resume operations [4] - Overall, PTA prices are under significant upward pressure due to the rapid decline in demand and the anticipated accumulation of inventory [4]