1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it uses descriptions like "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., with specific rating criteria provided at the end of the report [273]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is following the decline of raw materials such as coal and crude oil due to the absence of the expected anti - involution policy. The downstream demand of most chemical products is less than expected during the peak season. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the specific anti - involution policies of China's petrochemical industry [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Geopolitical prospects are uncertain, and the market is under supply pressure from OPEC+ rapid production increase and resilient US production. The high -开工 rate of refineries in China and the US is starting to decline, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices oscillate and decline. The supply tension has eased, and the demand is not optimistic. The absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The geopolitical premium has increased and then decreased with the increase of warehouse receipts. The demand has changed, and the cracking spread is still high. Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand to decline, with low valuation and following crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating, but the inventory pressure in the inland is limited. The futures price oscillates. The market buying sentiment is relatively stable, and there may be long - term low - buying opportunities in the far - month [21]. - **Urea**: Foreign media reports have triggered an upward sentiment, but it is difficult to implement in practice. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly and oscillate [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and the low inventory provides strong support. The price oscillates within a range, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be closed [14][16]. - **PX**: There is selling - short hedging pressure above, and the downstream polyester's willingness to chase the price has slowed down. The price is adjusted in the short term, with a relatively stable pattern and limited adjustment range [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the downstream polyester is waiting and watching, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, the sales volume declines, and the price is passively adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [16][17][18]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The production reduction in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following the raw materials [18][20]. - **PP**: There is still some supply pressure, and it oscillates. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the demand is cautious [24][25]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows PP to oscillate in the short term. The price is affected by sentiment and inventory, and the processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus [25]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance provides some support, and it oscillates in the short term. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the supply pressure persists [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The inventories in the industry chain are all high, and it returns to a weak state. The short - term trend is dominated by sentiment, and it may return to inventory accumulation in the medium term [11][13]. - **Styrene**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and it resumes decline. The supply - demand situation is still bearish in the fundamentals, but short - term short - selling is against the trend [13][14]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment weakens, and it runs weakly. The cost is stable, and the supply is decreasing while the demand has not changed much [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market observes the situation. The short - term spot increase slows down, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the long - term [28][29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in the spread [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and inventory status [31]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., showing the price differences between different products [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Most of the varieties are expected to show a trend of weakening oscillations, while some are expected to be in a state of oscillation or oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil futures continue to oscillate weakly. The US's 50 - day sanctions buffer period on Russia eases concerns about short - term supply reduction, and Russia's seaborne volume has increased. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which may lead to fewer economic stimulus policies in the second half of the year, causing commodities to show a somewhat weak trend. The increase in China's crude oil processing volume in June has led to a significant increase in the output of petrochemicals, and the decline in crude oil has led the domestic chemical industry. The overall energy and chemical industry is facing downward pressure due to weak demand and falling costs [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. With the release of the OPEC + production increase negative factors since July, the high refinery operation during the peak demand season and the crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint. After the weakening of geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are gradually under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The LPG and civil gas volumes are still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the overall demand is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. The increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread, and the current demand foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are under great downward pressure. The increase in heavy oil supply and the decrease in power generation demand are relatively certain, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. Affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, the demand space is insufficient, but the current valuation is low and it follows the crude oil to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load continues to decline, and methanol oscillates. The supply contraction expectation is increasing, but the market's expectation of a reduction in methanol imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is stable [19]. - **Urea**: The supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. The supply pressure is slightly relieved due to temporary maintenance in some areas, but the overall demand is weak, and it depends on exports to digest the inventory [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The future arrival volume of EG is limited, and it follows the raw materials to decline. The port inventory is at a low level, and the EG industry chain itself is in a state of oscillation in the short term, but the pattern is bearish in the long term due to new device production [14]. - **PX**: The sanctions of the US on Russia are less than expected, and PX follows the crude oil to decline. In the short term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to maintain a high - level consolidation, and the PX price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PTA**: The cost declines, and PTA falls. The supply of PTA is sufficient next week, and downstream polyester factories plan to reduce production. However, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the overall decline is expected to be limited [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in crude oil drags down short - fiber, and the short - fiber's own basis remains stable. The short - fiber industry chain's current supply and demand are acceptable, and the 9 - month contract is at a discount to the spot. The short - fiber processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The decline in crude oil drags down bottle chips, and the supply and demand of bottle chips themselves are acceptable. The bottle chip price follows the upstream raw materials to decline, but the processing fee has support and will remain stable [17]. - **PP**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP oscillates downward. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [22]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate is decreasing, and plastic oscillates weakly. The raw material support is weak, the supply side has certain pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [21]. - **Pure Benzene**: The confidence of benzene - styrene bulls is insufficient, and pure benzene declines. In the medium term, the pattern of pure benzene from July to August is acceptable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound strength [11][12]. - **Benzene - Styrene**: The risk of a short - squeeze is decreasing, and benzene - styrene falls. The supply and demand of benzene - styrene are expected to weaken, and the inventory in ports is accumulating, but the overall inventory accumulation in Q3 is controllable [13][14]. - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. The macro and micro fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the production is expected to increase in the future while the demand is weak [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. The support comes from the warm market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine price, and the discount of the caustic soda futures price, while the pressure comes from the peak of the spot price and the pessimistic supply - demand expectation [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.95 with a change of - 0.03, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 26 with a change of - 18 [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 193 with a change of 29, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 341 with a change of - 19, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 320 with a change of - 11 [28].

Group 1 - PTA prices have recently experienced fluctuations and a downward trend due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a decrease in oil prices and consequently PTA costs [1][4] - The demand side is entering a low season, with significant declines in downstream operating rates, putting pressure on PTA supply and demand [1][3] Group 2 - The oil market currently lacks clear trading logic, with fluctuations primarily driven by geopolitical risk sentiment. The situation is currently manageable, and future attention should be on negotiations between the US and Iran [2] - OPEC+ is discussing a potential increase in production, with expectations of an increase of 410,000 barrels per day, which could lead to a total market supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - Despite strong demand during the peak season, oil prices may not strengthen due to significant supply pressures, with ongoing monitoring of actual demand needed [2] Group 3 - The textile industry's operating rates have significantly weakened, with weaving machine load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces dropping by 4 percentage points to 62%, and texturing load down by 7 percentage points to 69%, both at historical lows [3] - The period from May to July is typically a demand low season for weaving enterprises, with spring and summer orders completed and autumn and winter orders not expected until August [3] - As raw material prices decline, downstream enterprises face risks of low profits, weakened production and sales, and inventory devaluation, leading to a potential further reduction in operating rates [3] Group 4 - In the second quarter, PTA inventory rapidly decreased due to high polyester operating rates, but is expected to enter a phase of inventory accumulation as downstream loads weaken and some facilities resume operations [4] - Overall, PTA prices are under significant upward pressure due to the rapid decline in demand and the anticipated accumulation of inventory [4]

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - OPEC+ members are likely to propose accelerating oil production in June, leading to increased supply pressure on crude oil [1][2] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.15% and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.39% during the specified period [2] - Domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil prices through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [1][5] Group 2: Fluorochemical Industry - National subsidies are driving domestic demand growth, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise [3][4] - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants is decreasing, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas is limited, leading to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong due to robust growth in the home appliance and automotive sectors, supported by national subsidy policies [3][5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly the "Big Three" oil companies: China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, due to their strong earnings resilience [1][5] - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [5] - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook on inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - OPEC+ members are showing an increased willingness to raise production, leading to heightened supply pressure on crude oil [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated operations and diversifying energy sources [7]. - The fluorochemical sector is benefiting from national subsidies driving domestic demand, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - OPEC+ is expected to suggest accelerating oil production in June, increasing supply pressure [6]. - Recent data shows WTI crude futures fell by 2.15% and Brent crude by 1.39% [6]. - Geopolitical discussions between the US and Russia regarding a ceasefire are ongoing, which may impact oil supply dynamics [6]. Fluorochemicals - National subsidies are expected to boost domestic demand, particularly in the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is set to decrease, while the growth in third-generation refrigerants is limited, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions, suggesting potential for upward movement in the industry index [7].