[T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 沥青：看跌 年度报告——沥青 需求难有起色，关注成本寻底节奏 能 ★美制裁措施对原料进口影响有限 源 与 碳 中 和 今年，美国对委内瑞拉及俄罗斯制裁措施频出，冲击原油贸易流格 局。在美国对委内瑞拉油轮制裁措施波及范围不进一步扩大的前提 下，Merey 原油断供风险较低。且由于地方炼厂原油进口灵活性较 高，沥青生产原料供应总体稳定，即便 Merey 原油进口短期明显受 阻，也可以转向非制裁油或海上大量滞留的其他制裁油。此外，巴 西 Buzios 以及 Mero 等油种也是今年下半年以来山东地区重要的中 质及重质原油补充，且南美盐下油田仍处于扩产阶段。 ★投资建议 在供需双弱的背景下，成本端的扰动是明年更为重要的关注点，今 年原油市场的供应压力至少会持续到明年上半年，而下半年供应或 同比小幅下降。尽管 OPEC+在 2026 年一季度暂停增产，美国页岩 油供应增速也逐渐放缓，但巴西、加拿大和圭亚那等国家将成为明 年重要的供应增长点；另外，今年下半年激增的原油海上库存也对 油价的反弹空间形成压制，一旦庞大的在途库存逐渐转化为陆上库 存，或者浮仓找到合适的买家从而向市场加速释放， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-04 对俄罗斯供应担忧重燃，能化延续震荡 整理 能源化⼯组研究团队 研究员： 原油期货价格近期延续震荡整理态势，地缘尚未看到完全消退的迹 象。央视新闻报道，俄美会谈未达成这种方案，乌克兰也在不停的袭击俄 罗斯的石油基础设施。过去一周，四艘俄罗斯油轮遭到袭击，俄罗斯表示 再发生类似事件将考虑直接袭击资助乌克兰的国家的商船。市场也在密切 关注CPC石油码头被袭，彭博报道，可能3天内就会逐步恢复该码头原油的 正常装载，当前黑海俄罗斯港口的保险费出现了大幅飙升。CPC码头是哈 萨克斯坦原油重要的出口渠道，日均出口量高达180万桶。 板块逻辑： 化工跟随原油延续震荡整理态势。美国炼厂开工率快速回升，成品油 逐步累库，随着近期汽油裂解价差的回落，芳烃调油的逻辑弱化，芳烃的 上行动力略显不足，芳烃端尤其是PX对2026年太过乐观的预期可能导致未 来一段时间该品种的交易难度较大。烯烃的供给压力也从未减缓，资金换 月因素带来短暂反弹，后期也仍将偏弱运行。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青期价超跌后向现货修复 高硫燃油：燃 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices maintained a volatile trend. On Friday, US media reported that the US was about to launch a military attack on Venezuela, causing oil prices to rise. On Sunday, OPEC+ members confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased. Refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Although short - term geopolitical risks have resurfaced, the pressure on crude oil supply release is relatively high. With the commissioning of Brazil's P78, further production increases by OPEC, and the US maintaining a high total production, crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - From October 29 to November 4, 2025, WTI crude oil prices decreased by $0.49, BRENT decreased by $0.75, and DUBAI decreased by $0.76. Among refined products, NYMEX RBOB increased by $0.67, and NYMEX HO increased by $3.93. For other related products, SC decreased by 4.40 yuan, and Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $2.57 [3][12] b. Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels, with the previous value being - 4.02 million barrels. BP's CEO stated that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand. TotalEnergies' CEO believes that global renewable energy will double by 2040, and there is no investment shortage in the oil market. The US Energy Department's deputy minister said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the top priority is to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve. Brazil's National Petroleum Agency reported that the country's oil production in September was 3.915 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [3][4] c. Inventory - According to the EIA report for the week ending October 24, US crude oil exports increased by 158,000 barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 13.644 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.753 million barrels per day, a 0.91% decrease compared to the same period last year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%; and crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.051 million barrels per day, a decrease of 867,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.362 million barrels. From October 23 - 30, the operating rate of domestic main refineries decreased, while that of local refineries slightly increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated, with local refinery gasoline inventories increasing and diesel inventories decreasing. The profits of both main and local refineries decreased [4][5] d. Weekly View - This week, crude oil prices were volatile. On Friday, news of a potential US military attack on Venezuela drove up oil prices. On Sunday, OPEC+ confirmed a production increase in December. According to data, Russia's average daily seaborne oil product exports in the first 26 days of October were 1.89 million barrels, and the average daily seaborne crude oil exports in October were 5.198 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 460,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories slightly increased, while floating storage inventories slightly decreased. Affected by a significant decline in net crude oil imports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased, and refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Despite short - term geopolitical risks, the pressure on crude oil supply release is high, and crude oil will maintain a weak pattern [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it uses descriptions like "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., with specific rating criteria provided at the end of the report [273]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is following the decline of raw materials such as coal and crude oil due to the absence of the expected anti - involution policy. The downstream demand of most chemical products is less than expected during the peak season. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the specific anti - involution policies of China's petrochemical industry [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Geopolitical prospects are uncertain, and the market is under supply pressure from OPEC+ rapid production increase and resilient US production. The high -开工 rate of refineries in China and the US is starting to decline, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices oscillate and decline. The supply tension has eased, and the demand is not optimistic. The absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The geopolitical premium has increased and then decreased with the increase of warehouse receipts. The demand has changed, and the cracking spread is still high. Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand to decline, with low valuation and following crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating, but the inventory pressure in the inland is limited. The futures price oscillates. The market buying sentiment is relatively stable, and there may be long - term low - buying opportunities in the far - month [21]. - **Urea**: Foreign media reports have triggered an upward sentiment, but it is difficult to implement in practice. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly and oscillate [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and the low inventory provides strong support. The price oscillates within a range, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be closed [14][16]. - **PX**: There is selling - short hedging pressure above, and the downstream polyester's willingness to chase the price has slowed down. The price is adjusted in the short term, with a relatively stable pattern and limited adjustment range [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the downstream polyester is waiting and watching, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, the sales volume declines, and the price is passively adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [16][17][18]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The production reduction in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following the raw materials [18][20]. - **PP**: There is still some supply pressure, and it oscillates. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the demand is cautious [24][25]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows PP to oscillate in the short term. The price is affected by sentiment and inventory, and the processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus [25]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance provides some support, and it oscillates in the short term. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the supply pressure persists [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The inventories in the industry chain are all high, and it returns to a weak state. The short - term trend is dominated by sentiment, and it may return to inventory accumulation in the medium term [11][13]. - **Styrene**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and it resumes decline. The supply - demand situation is still bearish in the fundamentals, but short - term short - selling is against the trend [13][14]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment weakens, and it runs weakly. The cost is stable, and the supply is decreasing while the demand has not changed much [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market observes the situation. The short - term spot increase slows down, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the long - term [28][29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in the spread [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and inventory status [31]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., showing the price differences between different products [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Most of the varieties are expected to show a trend of weakening oscillations, while some are expected to be in a state of oscillation or oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil futures continue to oscillate weakly. The US's 50 - day sanctions buffer period on Russia eases concerns about short - term supply reduction, and Russia's seaborne volume has increased. China's GDP growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which may lead to fewer economic stimulus policies in the second half of the year, causing commodities to show a somewhat weak trend. The increase in China's crude oil processing volume in June has led to a significant increase in the output of petrochemicals, and the decline in crude oil has led the domestic chemical industry. The overall energy and chemical industry is facing downward pressure due to weak demand and falling costs [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. With the release of the OPEC + production increase negative factors since July, the high refinery operation during the peak demand season and the crude oil supply pressure are in a state of mutual restraint. After the weakening of geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are gradually under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The LPG and civil gas volumes are still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the overall demand is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. The increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread, and the current demand foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are under great downward pressure. The increase in heavy oil supply and the decrease in power generation demand are relatively certain, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to oscillate weakly. Affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, the demand space is insufficient, but the current valuation is low and it follows the crude oil to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load continues to decline, and methanol oscillates. The supply contraction expectation is increasing, but the market's expectation of a reduction in methanol imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is stable [19]. - **Urea**: The supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. The supply pressure is slightly relieved due to temporary maintenance in some areas, but the overall demand is weak, and it depends on exports to digest the inventory [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The future arrival volume of EG is limited, and it follows the raw materials to decline. The port inventory is at a low level, and the EG industry chain itself is in a state of oscillation in the short term, but the pattern is bearish in the long term due to new device production [14]. - **PX**: The sanctions of the US on Russia are less than expected, and PX follows the crude oil to decline. In the short term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to maintain a high - level consolidation, and the PX price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PTA**: The cost declines, and PTA falls. The supply of PTA is sufficient next week, and downstream polyester factories plan to reduce production. However, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the overall decline is expected to be limited [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The decline in crude oil drags down short - fiber, and the short - fiber's own basis remains stable. The short - fiber industry chain's current supply and demand are acceptable, and the 9 - month contract is at a discount to the spot. The short - fiber processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The decline in crude oil drags down bottle chips, and the supply and demand of bottle chips themselves are acceptable. The bottle chip price follows the upstream raw materials to decline, but the processing fee has support and will remain stable [17]. - **PP**: The support from maintenance is limited, and PP oscillates downward. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [22]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate is decreasing, and plastic oscillates weakly. The raw material support is weak, the supply side has certain pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [21]. - **Pure Benzene**: The confidence of benzene - styrene bulls is insufficient, and pure benzene declines. In the medium term, the pattern of pure benzene from July to August is acceptable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound strength [11][12]. - **Benzene - Styrene**: The risk of a short - squeeze is decreasing, and benzene - styrene falls. The supply and demand of benzene - styrene are expected to weaken, and the inventory in ports is accumulating, but the overall inventory accumulation in Q3 is controllable [13][14]. - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. The macro and micro fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the production is expected to increase in the future while the demand is weak [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. The support comes from the warm market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine price, and the discount of the caustic soda futures price, while the pressure comes from the peak of the spot price and the pessimistic supply - demand expectation [24]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.95 with a change of - 0.03, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 26 with a change of - 18 [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 193 with a change of 29, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 341 with a change of - 19, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 320 with a change of - 11 [28].

Group 1 - PTA prices have recently experienced fluctuations and a downward trend due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a decrease in oil prices and consequently PTA costs [1][4] - The demand side is entering a low season, with significant declines in downstream operating rates, putting pressure on PTA supply and demand [1][3] Group 2 - The oil market currently lacks clear trading logic, with fluctuations primarily driven by geopolitical risk sentiment. The situation is currently manageable, and future attention should be on negotiations between the US and Iran [2] - OPEC+ is discussing a potential increase in production, with expectations of an increase of 410,000 barrels per day, which could lead to a total market supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - Despite strong demand during the peak season, oil prices may not strengthen due to significant supply pressures, with ongoing monitoring of actual demand needed [2] Group 3 - The textile industry's operating rates have significantly weakened, with weaving machine load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces dropping by 4 percentage points to 62%, and texturing load down by 7 percentage points to 69%, both at historical lows [3] - The period from May to July is typically a demand low season for weaving enterprises, with spring and summer orders completed and autumn and winter orders not expected until August [3] - As raw material prices decline, downstream enterprises face risks of low profits, weakened production and sales, and inventory devaluation, leading to a potential further reduction in operating rates [3] Group 4 - In the second quarter, PTA inventory rapidly decreased due to high polyester operating rates, but is expected to enter a phase of inventory accumulation as downstream loads weaken and some facilities resume operations [4] - Overall, PTA prices are under significant upward pressure due to the rapid decline in demand and the anticipated accumulation of inventory [4]

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - OPEC+ members are likely to propose accelerating oil production in June, leading to increased supply pressure on crude oil [1][2] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.15% and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.39% during the specified period [2] - Domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil prices through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [1][5] Group 2: Fluorochemical Industry - National subsidies are driving domestic demand growth, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise [3][4] - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants is decreasing, while the increase in third-generation refrigerant quotas is limited, leading to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for refrigerants is expected to remain strong due to robust growth in the home appliance and automotive sectors, supported by national subsidy policies [3][5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly the "Big Three" oil companies: China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, due to their strong earnings resilience [1][5] - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [5] - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook on inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - OPEC+ members are showing an increased willingness to raise production, leading to heightened supply pressure on crude oil [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated operations and diversifying energy sources [7]. - The fluorochemical sector is benefiting from national subsidies driving domestic demand, with refrigerant prices continuing to rise [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - OPEC+ is expected to suggest accelerating oil production in June, increasing supply pressure [6]. - Recent data shows WTI crude futures fell by 2.15% and Brent crude by 1.39% [6]. - Geopolitical discussions between the US and Russia regarding a ceasefire are ongoing, which may impact oil supply dynamics [6]. Fluorochemicals - National subsidies are expected to boost domestic demand, particularly in the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is set to decrease, while the growth in third-generation refrigerants is limited, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions, suggesting potential for upward movement in the industry index [7].