Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to oscillate in the near term due to high social inventory, upcoming end of maintenance for some producers, high futures warehouse receipts, and strengthening cost - side, despite current relatively high PVC operating rates and some positive signs in exports and downstream demand [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region, the upstream of PVC, remains stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still at a low level [1]. - India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export outlook for Chinese PVC in Q4. However, exports in September were still good, and export orders have not weakened significantly [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities, such as Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year, Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year, and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year, have come into operation at different stages [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract oscillated with increasing positions, closing at 4,716 yuan/ton, down 0.21%, with an increase of 37,096 lots in open interest to 1,248,205 lots [2]. - On October 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,630 yuan/ton. The basis of the V2601 contract was - 86 yuan/ton, weakening by 13 yuan/ton and at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: Companies such as Hangjin Technology and Shandong Xinfafa are under maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities have been gradually put into operation [4]. - **Demand**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, down 5.5% year - on - year. As of the week ending October 26, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.09% week - on - week after the National Day, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending October 23, PVC social inventory increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 1.0352 million tons, 24.87% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory is still relatively high [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年10月23日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少5.94个百分点至76.69%，PVC开工 率减少较多，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。国庆节后归来，PVC下游恢复幅度较大，PVC下游开工超 过国庆节前水平，但仍处于历年同期偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执 行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中 中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反 倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏 高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅 仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回落， 仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年 偏高。同时新增产能上，50万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is under significant pressure due to high social inventory, upcoming end of equipment maintenance, average spot trading, and high futures warehouse receipts. However, the recent major conference may affect macro - sentiment, and the cost side of PVC has strengthened. It is recommended to exit and wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis, still at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day, the downstream recovery of PVC was significant, but it is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India increased the anti - dumping duty on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export expectation of Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, after the recent decline in export prices, export orders have not weakened significantly. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time to improve [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,670 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,725 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,699 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.47%. The position volume decreased by 14,260 lots to 1,191,906 lots [2]. - On October 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,625 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,699 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 74 yuan per ton, weakening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Shandong Xinfa, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng entered maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into operation in early September and approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at low loads after trial production [5]. - Demand side: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 54.79% on a month - on - month basis, but it was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% on a month - on - month basis to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased slightly but was still relatively high [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with the LME copper inventory significantly increasing and the overseas Chilean copper mine resuming operations on the 10th. The domestic copper price is supported to some extent by the low inventory and the non - shrinking of smelters, but the overall market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong in the short term, as the market sentiment was pushed up by the suspension of production at CATL's mining end, and although the sentiment has cooled slightly today, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand side has shown increased activity [8][9]. - The crude oil market is complex. In the short term, it is tight during the peak season, but in the medium and long term, there is increasing downward pressure due to factors such as the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September, the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the IEA's adjustment of the global crude oil surplus [10]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, affected by factors such as the decrease in asphalt production in August, the weakening of crude oil cost support, and the impact of rainfall on demand [11][12]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate, with the downstream recovery slow, the inventory pressure high, and the cost side affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan [13]. - The plastic market is expected to fluctuate, with the consumption off - season not over, the inventory pressure large, but the potential boost from the start of agricultural film stocking [14][15]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward, with the supply increasing, the demand not substantially improved, and the inventory pressure still high [16]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the market sentiment pushed up by news, but the downstream resistant to price increases [18]. - The urea market is expected to have a weak consolidation in the short term, with the downstream demand weakening due to the impact of the parade, but the downward space limited due to export and subsequent demand support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 12, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, soda ash rose over 5%, and several other commodities also had significant increases. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell 3%, and several other commodities fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, most rose, while among treasury bond futures, most fell [4]. - As of 15:10 on August 12, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601, iron ore 2601, and lithium carbonate 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and glass 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Comment on Specific Varieties Copper - The suspension of the 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days and the US CPI data will affect the market. The supply is sufficient with the increase in copper concentrate imports, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The demand is weak due to the high - temperature and rainy season, but the terminal power grid performs well, and the inventory situation supports the domestic price to some extent [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and closed low today with an intraday increase of over 7%. The suspension of production at CATL's mining end is expected to reduce supply, and the cost side is supportive. The demand side has shown increased activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. Crude Oil - It is in the peak consumption season, with the US inventory at a low level. The OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the price is affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, the adjustment of the global surplus by the IEA, and the price adjustment of Saudi Aramco [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease in August. The downstream road asphalt construction is affected by funds and weather. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, and the cost support is weakening, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11][12]. PP - The downstream start - up rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The cost is affected by the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan. The supply may increase with new capacity, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - The start - up rate is at a medium - high level. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but there are some signs of improvement in agricultural film orders. The cost is affected by external factors, and the inventory pressure is large, so it is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is still weak. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, so it is expected to fluctuate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The price opened high and rose in the afternoon. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand is strong, but the downstream is resistant to price increases, so it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. Urea - The production is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand will be affected by the parade, but the downward space is limited due to export and subsequent demand support, so it is expected to have a weak consolidation [19].