Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is prone to decline but has limited downside space in the short term, with support at the 4600 price level. The v2601 contract is the focus. The supply and demand of PVC continue to weaken, with high production, weak domestic and export demand, and high social inventory. However, the current cost support is strengthening, and the profit compression is obvious, which restricts the downward space [3]. - Different market participants are given corresponding operation suggestions, such as traders and terminal customers with inventory are recommended to do short - futures hedging, and those in need of procurement are recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. - Attention should be paid to data such as the PVC powder overall operating load rate on November 7, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China, the PVC weekly operating rate on November 14, and the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China on November 14 [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: As of October 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity in the year was 1.9 million tons, and the withdrawn capacity was 200,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6.08%. It is estimated that the total new capacity in 2025 will be 2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.15%. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.28%, a 2.19% increase from last week, and the annual cumulative output is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 4.04% [9]. - **Demand**: The downstream operation of hard products has improved, and most of the time, they purchase on demand, only increasing the replenishment volume appropriately at low prices and resisting high - price raw materials. The operation of soft product films is okay. The suspension of the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods by the United States for another year is beneficial to glove exports to some extent. The trading pick - up enthusiasm is average, and most maintain normal procurement [7]. - **Cost**: The increase in coal prices intensifies the loss pressure of semi - coke manufacturers, driving up the semi - coke price and strengthening the cost support for calcium carbide. The ex - factory price of calcium carbide may remain stable, and there is a possibility of an increase if the short - term cost pressure continues to increase, but the increase is restricted by the weak PVC market [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Most chlor - alkali enterprises have sufficient supply, while the demand is weak, and the export market lacks substantial support. Some chlor - alkali enterprises still face shipment pressure, and the price may remain weak. Some high - concentration liquid alkalis may stabilize their prices under the support of inventory and orders [8]. 2. Disk Data - **Price Trend**: This week, the PVC price fluctuated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was mainly rigid, and the export had no bright performance. The social inventory remained at the highest level in the same period of history. The price trend was weak, but it was supported by cost to some extent. The upward movement of coal brought stronger cost support, and the weakness of caustic soda price weakened the "subsidy of alkali for chlorine", resulting in the comprehensive profit of northwest integrated enterprises approaching the break - even point [17]. - **Data Performance**: The basis was at a discount to the disk. The East China 01 basis strengthened to around - 130 this week; the 1 - 5 spread was weakly running at - 304. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.3389 million lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to around 121,500 lots (exceeding the level of the same period last year) [18]. 3. Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional Spread**: The East - South China calcium carbide method spread fluctuated around - 139, and the East - North China calcium carbide method spread strengthened to 21. The ethylene - calcium carbide price spread narrowed to around 219 [29]. 4. Profit Performance - Different production processes have different profit situations. For the calcium carbide method, the comprehensive profit of northwest integrated chlor - alkali enterprises was - 345 yuan/ton; for the ethylene method, the comprehensive profit of enterprises purchasing ethylene externally in East China was 766 yuan/ton [41]. 5. Raw Material Situation - **Semi - coke**: The operating rate of semi - coke sample enterprises on November 7 was 64.5%, remaining the same as the previous period. Some semi - coke plants in Shaanxi have plans to resume production, but the operating rate is expected to decline due to intensified losses. The semi - coke price may still have the possibility of stabilizing and improving under cost support [65]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The ex - factory price of calcium carbide may remain stable, and there is a possibility of an increase if the cost pressure continues to increase, but the increase is restricted by the weak PVC market. The average operating load rate of the calcium carbide industry increased slightly to 75.23% this week, a 0.22% increase from last week [73][77]. - **Caustic Soda**: The liquid caustic soda market continued to operate weakly this week. The 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda locally decreased by 10 - 200 yuan/ton. The weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda samples was 84.8%, a 0.5% increase from last week, and the weekly inventory was 414,800 tons, a 6.28% decrease from last week. In the future, the price may remain weak, and some high - concentration liquid alkalis may stabilize their prices [86]. 6. Supply - **Capacity Expansion**: As of October 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity in the year was 1.9 million tons, and the withdrawn capacity was 200,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6.08%. It is estimated that the total new capacity in 2025 will be 2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.15% [92][93]. - **Operation and Maintenance**: The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.28%, a 2.1% increase from last week. The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week was 53,490 tons, a 17,310 - ton decrease from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss next week will increase slightly compared with this week [94][95]. 7. Import and Export - **Import**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,100 tons, and the cumulative import from January to September was 175,600 tons. The monthly import increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year increase was 0.76%. The imports mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [129]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC export volume was 346,400 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 2.9216 million tons. The monthly export increased by 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year increase was 50.63%. The main destinations were still India, followed by Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [129]. - **Export Outlook**: This week, the sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 3.58% compared with last week and increased by 6.58% year - on - year. The volume to be delivered decreased by 8.76% compared with last week. It is estimated that the export will slow down in the fourth quarter, but the slowdown amplitude is limited, mainly due to India's anti - dumping tax policy and BIS certification [139]. 8. Demand - **Downstream Operating Load**: The downstream operation of hard products has improved, and most of the time, they purchase on demand, only increasing the replenishment volume appropriately at low prices and resisting high - price raw materials. The operation of soft product films is okay. The suspension of the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods by the United States for another year is beneficial to glove exports to some extent [153]. - **Terminal Situation**: From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, completion area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [172][174]. 9. Inventory - The inventory of PVC sample production enterprises' salable products increased this week, with an increase of 57,500 tons compared with the previous period. The factory inventory of sample production enterprises decreased by 2,500 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China increased. The total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 520,700 tons, a 0.04% increase from the previous period and an 18.15% increase year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 942,900 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period and a 19.55% increase year - on - year [188].