机构观点 消息面 周三，华东PVC市场价格上调，电石法5型料4380-4470元/吨，乙烯料主流参考4450-4650元/吨左右。 本周PVC社会库存样本统计环比增加0.03%至105.93万吨，同比增加27.63%。 上周PVC开工率78.4%(-0.6%)，结束三连升，乙烯法装置复产，电石法降负现象增多，减产规模相当于一套50万吨左右的产能停车，尚难以推动 当下库存转为去化。 广州期货： 新增产能供应压力仍存，市场面临高开工、高库存与弱需求，期价反弹空间受限，近期政策支撑下低估值期价小幅反弹，但整体仍处于低位震荡 格局。 中辉期货： 主力移仓换月，盘面延续走强。反内卷情绪再起，国内商品普遍走强，当前上中游库存仍处高位，内外需求处于季节性淡季，在上中游未出现集 中性检修前，供需过剩矛盾尚难缓解。不过近期氯碱齐跌，西北自备电石法装置已亏现金流，关注装置动态。策略：短期多单轻仓持有；中长期 等待库存持续去化，回调试多。V【4600-4800】。 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing an increase in inventory levels and a mixed outlook on supply and demand, with expectations of price declines due to weak demand and rising supply pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of October 9, the total inventory of PVC in sample warehouses in East and South China reached 937,500 tons, an increase of 4.81% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 17.73% [1]. - The PVC operating rate increased by 3.66 percentage points to 82.63% compared to the period before the National Day holiday, indicating a higher-than-usual production level for this time of year [1]. - The average profit margin for PVC production using the calcium carbide method is -622 yuan/ton, while the ethylene method has an average profit margin of -538 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Domestic PVC production enterprises are planning fewer maintenance shutdowns this week, leading to an expected increase in overall supply [2]. - Downstream product manufacturers are maintaining low operating rates, with no signs of improvement in orders, leading to a recommendation for low-price procurement [2]. - The PVC market is facing downward price pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, with expectations of continued price declines [2][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - New production facilities in Qingdao and Gansu are expected to increase supply pressure in the market [3]. - The domestic demand for PVC remains stable but weak, and escalating trade tensions may negatively impact exports of PVC products [3]. - The chlor-alkali integration still shows profitability, but cost support is not evident, leading to a weak market outlook for PVC [3].