1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently faces an unfavorable demand situation and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate weakly, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: -1, PTA view score: -1, PR view score: 0) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 1, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.45 per barrel, up 0.52%; Brent crude oil was $67.11 per barrel, down 0.74%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.35%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $754 per ton, up 0.47%. The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $861 per ton, down 1.51% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,800 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the settlement price was 4,804 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,972 yuan per ton, down 1.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,990 yuan per ton, down 1.19%; the external price index was $658 per ton (as of June 30), up 0.77% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,794 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 6,798 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The domestic spot price of p-xylene was 6,947 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PR Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,932 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,932 yuan per ton, down 0.40%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 6,070 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [1] - **Downstream Fiber Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,150 yuan per ton, down 1.38%; the price index of polyester short fibers was 6,765 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; the price index of bottle-grade chips was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Spread Information - On July 1, 2025, the PXN spread was $290.25 per ton, down 3.71%; the PX - MX spread was $107 per ton, down 13.48%. The near - far month spread of PTA was 164 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28 yuan; the basis was 190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 62 yuan. The basis of PX was 153 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan. The basis of PR in the East China market was 98 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan; in the South China market, it was 138 yuan per ton, a decrease of 16 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - On July 1, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged. The load rate of PTA factories was 76.84%, down 0.50%; the load rate of polyester factories was 88.52%, down 0.77%; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.08%, a decrease of 4.12 percentage points; the load rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.95%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rates - On July 1, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 33%, up 2 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 51%, up 11 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 43%, a decrease of 27 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting on August 1 [2] Important News - The international crude oil market lacks news guidance, and the crude oil market maintains a sideways shock. Recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the risk premium has been fully reversed. The PX price has fallen back to the level before the increase. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PTA will still commission new devices in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether the profitability of PX can continue to improve depends on the emergence of more unexpected factors [2] - At the beginning of the month, downstream polyester factories mainly consumed long - term contract PTA, with a low intention to purchase PTA spot, causing the PTA spot basis to weaken. Some polyester bottle chip factories implemented production cuts, which was negative for the PTA market. Although the absolute value of PTA inventory is decreasing, the relative value is at a five - year high, and the situation of near - term strength and long - term weakness is difficult to change [2] - Most polyester products are theoretically operating at a loss, but the number of officially announced polyester device maintenance plans is limited. The rigid demand in June was relatively stable, and the polyester operating rate will fluctuate in July. As long as there is no significant production cut in polyester, PTA still has some support. If the production cut in the polyester industry expands in the future, PTA will be relatively weaker [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5,980 - 6,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of raw material PTA and bottle chip futures first declined and then rebounded. Most supply - side quotes for bottle chips were lowered. Recently, the operating rate on the supply side of bottle chips has mainly decreased, and market liquidity may tighten. Downstream terminal demand is cautiously waiting and watching, with general purchasing sentiment [2] Trading Strategies - PTA is in a weak consolidation state. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,800 yuan per ton (-0.50%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.18 million lots. The positive impact of PX maintenance news is limited, and the price has returned to consolidation. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,794 yuan per ton (-0.47%), with an intraday trading volume of 280,900 lots. PR follows the cost trend, and the 2509 contract closed at 5,932 yuan per ton (-0.40%), with an intraday trading volume of 57,000 lots [2]