Core Insights - The Fed's inflation benchmark is expected to worsen, with consumer prices measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) projected to rise 2.8% over the 12 months through December, and core PCE forecasted to increase to 3.0% from 2.8% in November [1][2][7] - The anticipated rise in core PCE inflation is significant as it is the measure the Federal Reserve uses to assess its 2% annual inflation target [2][4] - Financial markets are currently predicting a quarter-point cut in the Fed's key fed funds rate by June, but clarity on inflation trends is needed before any rate cuts can be made [5][6] Economic Implications - Persistently high inflation is negatively impacting household budgets and maintaining elevated interest rates [3] - Some economists, such as those at Goldman Sachs, predict that the annual PCE measure will continue to rise as companies pass on tariff costs to consumers, with core PCE potentially reaching 3.05%, the highest since March 2024 [4] - The Federal Reserve will closely monitor upcoming inflation data, particularly PCE, to determine whether to lower borrowing costs to stimulate the job market or maintain higher rates to control inflation [4][6]

Economic Data - Markets experienced a rise, with the Dow gaining 306 points (+0.63%), S&P 500 up 37 points (+0.55%), Nasdaq increasing by 211 points (+0.91%), and Russell 2000 growing by 17 points (+0.64%) [1] - The delayed November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report indicated Personal Spending increased by 0.3%, which was 10 basis points lower than expected, following a previous drop of 30 basis points to 0.1% [2] - Year-over-year PCE rose to 2.8%, recovering from a 10 basis point dip the prior month, with core PCE also reflecting the same year-over-year increase [3] Company Earnings - Intel (INTC) reported earnings of 15 cents per share, nearly doubling the anticipated 8 cents, with revenues of $13.67 billion surpassing the Zacks consensus of $13.37 billion; however, shares fell by 6.5% due to lowered revenue guidance amid ongoing supply constraints [4] - Intel's Data Center segment grew by 9% year-over-year to $4.7 billion, despite a 7% decline in Cloud computing [5] - Capital One (COF) missed Q4 earnings estimates at $3.86 per share compared to the expected $4.12, but revenues of $15.58 billion exceeded the $15.37 billion forecast; the company also announced the acquisition of AI-based FinTech Brex for $5.15 billion [6] - CSX (CSX) saw its share price increase despite missing Q4 earnings estimates, reporting earnings of 39 cents per share, which was 3 cents below consensus, and revenues of $3.51 billion, slightly below the expected $3.55 billion, attributed to subdued industrial demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic impact of tax cuts and market optimism during Trump's presidency, as presented by economist Larry Kudlow, who attributes significant growth in GDP and business investment to these policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth Indicators - U.S. GDP grew by 3.8% in the second quarter of Trump's presidency, a notable recovery from a -0.6% decline in the previous quarter, which Kudlow interprets as evidence of the effectiveness of Trump's tax bill [1]. - Business investment saw an increase of 8.5%, which Kudlow attributes to the tax bill allowing immediate write-offs for new machinery and computers [2]. - There was a 16% rise in new business startups, a statistic sourced from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, indicating a surge in entrepreneurial activity [2]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index increased by 32% and the Nasdaq by 46% since early April, which Kudlow uses as further evidence of economic confidence and investment [2]. Group 3: Critique of Claims - The tax bill was not signed until after the second quarter ended, suggesting that businesses could not have anticipated its effects when making spending decisions [4]. - Kudlow's reference to a GDP deflator of 2.1% as an indicator of inflation is challenged, as it does not reflect the actual cost of living experienced by consumers, who are more affected by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) [5].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market showed positive movement with major indexes rising, particularly the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, following favorable economic reports [2][3][4] Economic Data - The UM Consumer Sentiment survey for August reported a score of 55.1, slightly below the expected 55.4 [1] - Expectations for future inflation decreased, with 1-year expectations at 4.7% (down from 4.8% expected) and 5-10 year expectations at 3.7% (down from 3.9% expected) [2] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while Personal Income increased by 0.4%, also as anticipated [3][4] Market Performance - As of the market opening, the Dow led with a gain of 0.69%, followed by the S&P 500 (+0.46%), Russell 2000 (+0.21%), and Nasdaq (+0.17%) [3] - A significant portion of equities, 55.1% (3,054), were trading in the green, while 37.2% (2,062) were declining [3]

Market Performance - The blue-chip Dow index closed down 173 points, a decrease of 0.38% for the day [2] - The S&P 500 fell by 33 points, or 0.50%, while the Nasdaq also dropped by 0.50%, losing 113 points [2] - The small-cap Russell 2000 decreased by 25 points, representing a decline of 1.05% [2] - Bond yields are rising, with the 10-year yield at 4.17% and the 2-year yield at 3.66% [2] Economic Indicators - Existing Home Sales surged by 20.5% in August, totaling 4.00 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, slightly below expectations of 4.01 million but above the consensus estimate of 3.96 million [3] - The Midwest region experienced the largest gains in home sales, although the median home price there is 22% lower than the national median [3] Company Earnings - Costco reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $5.87 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus of $5.81, but revenues were slightly below expectations at $86.16 billion compared to the anticipated $86.18 billion [4] - This marks the third earnings beat for Costco in the last four quarters, yet shares are down slightly in late trading, with a year-to-date increase of around 3% [4] Upcoming Economic Data - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is anticipated to impact the stock market, with the August data set to be released before the market opens on Friday [5] - Personal Income is expected to cool to 0.3% in August from 0.4% the previous month, while Personal Spending is projected to remain steady at 0.5% [6] - The PCE Index is forecasted to increase by 0.3% month over month for the headline and 0.2% for the core, with year-over-year PCE expected to rise by 10 basis points to 2.7% [6][7]

Economic Overview - Pre-market futures are improving following the release of major economic numbers, despite a drawback in EU markets due to rising unemployment and inflation in Germany [1] - U.S. indexes are experiencing volatility, with the small-cap Russell 2000 showing gains while other major indexes remain in the red [1] PCE and Inflation Metrics - July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures were in-line with expectations, indicating no hindrance to the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut for the September Fed meeting [2] - Personal Income for July increased by 0.4%, the strongest since April, while Personal Spending rose by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since March [3] - The headline PCE Index showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, the lowest since May, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, consistent with the previous month [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, indicating stability in inflation metrics [5] Employment and Economic Indicators - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's focus has shifted from inflation to employment concerns, with July's non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 73K, which is below the previous four-month average of 54K [8] - A significant upward revision in PCE would be necessary to alter the current outlook, as weakening employment is influencing the decision for a rate cut [9] Trade and Inventory Data - Advanced Trade in Goods for July reported a deficit of $103 billion, which was more than $10 billion lower than anticipated [10] - Advanced Retail Inventories and Wholesale Inventories both reported a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, indicating stable inventory levels [11] Market Expectations - The upcoming week will feature new jobs reports, including July JOLTS numbers and private-sector payrolls from ADP, leading up to the significant BLS non-farm payrolls report [12]

Market Overview - Major indexes closed mostly in the red, with the Dow down 157 points, S&P 500 down 24 points, and Nasdaq down 90 points, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 4 points [1] Economic Indicators - S&P flash Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, significantly above the anticipated 49.5 and July's 49.8, marking a more than 3-year high [2] - August Services PMI was reported at 55.4, the second consecutive month above 55 this year [2] Company Earnings Reports - **Zoom Communications (ZM)**: Shares rose 6% after Q2 earnings beat expectations by 10% at $1.53 per share, with revenues of $1.217 billion, a 4.7% year-over-year growth, and non-GAAP operating margins at 41.3% [3] - **Intuit (INTU)**: Shares fell 5% despite beating fiscal Q4 earnings expectations by 10 cents at $2.75 per share, with revenues of $3.8 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, attributed to lackluster guidance for the current quarter [4] - **Ross Stores (ROST)**: Shares increased by 2.3% after Q2 earnings of $1.56 per share exceeded consensus by 4 cents, with revenues of $5.5 billion, a 5% year-over-year growth, and expected comps of 2-3% going forward [5] Upcoming Events - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, is anticipated to provide insights on interest rate decisions for the September meeting [6] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is due out a week from Friday, with the last report showing year-over-year PCE at 2.6% and core PCE at 2.8% [7]

Economic Indicators - March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed a month-over-month change of 0.0%, which was -30 basis points below the previous month, while year-over-year PCE reached +2.3%, slightly above expectations but down 40 basis points from +2.7% in February [2] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also reported a month-over-month change of 0.0%, down from +0.1% projected and +0.4% reported a month ago, with a year-over-year figure of +2.6%, down from +3.0% the prior month [3] Housing Market - Pending Home Sales increased by +6.1% in March, surpassing the +1% expected and the upwardly revised +2.1% for February, marking the highest level since September of the previous year [4] - The South region led the increase with +9.8%, followed by the Midwest at +4.9% and the West at +4.8%, while the Northeast experienced a decline of -0.5% [5] Company Earnings - Meta Platforms reported Q1 earnings of $6.43 per share, exceeding the expected $5.22, with revenues of $42.31 billion surpassing the $41.22 billion estimate, and Daily Active People grew +6% year over year to 3.43 billion [6] - Microsoft reported Q1 earnings of $3.46 billion, beating the $3.20 billion estimate, with revenues of $70.1 billion exceeding the projected $68.4 billion, and Azure cloud sales increased by +20% to $42.4 billion [7] - Qualcomm's fiscal Q2 earnings were $2.85 per share, beating estimates by 3 cents, with revenues of $10.83 billion surpassing the $10.67 billion consensus, although a lower revenue guide for Q3 led to a -6.3% decline in after-market shares [8]