Photo by BeInCrypto Bitcoin slid to the $85,000 level on December 15, extending its recent decline as global macro risks, leverage unwinding, and thin liquidity collided. The drop erased more than $100 billion from the total crypto market cap in just days, raising questions about whether the sell-off has finished. While no single catalyst caused the move, five overlapping forces pushed Bitcoin lower and could keep pressure on prices in the near term. Bank of Japan Rate Hike Fears Triggered Global De-Ris ...

Core Insights - A recent UBS report reveals that billionaires are shifting their investment focus towards Western Europe and China, showing increased optimism compared to previous years [2][7]. Investment Sentiment - 40% of billionaire respondents see investment opportunities in Western Europe over the next 12 months, a significant increase from 18% in 2024 [3]. - In China, 34% of respondents identify opportunities, up from 11% last year [3]. - The Asia Pacific region, excluding China, also saw a rise in interest, with 33% of respondents expressing bullish sentiment, an increase of eight percentage points [4]. Regional Shifts - North America has experienced a decline in popularity among billionaire investors, with only 63% favoring the region in 2025, down from 80% in 2024 [4]. - Concerns regarding tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, policy uncertainty, and inflation are influencing these shifts in sentiment [5]. Investment Preferences - 66% of respondents cited tariffs as a major concern likely to negatively impact the market environment in the next 12 months [5]. - The report indicates a preference for private equity investments, with 49% of billionaires planning to allocate funds to direct private equity over the next year [8].

Bloomberg Treasuries closed out their worst week in eight months as conflicting economic data challenged expectations for how much the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates next year. US 10- and 30-year yields rose four basis points on Friday to finish a week in which they spiked the most since April, when havoc erupted in global financial markets after the US administration rolled out its tariffs agenda. Most Read from Bloomberg While traders widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates next week, j ...

Group 1: Immigration Policy Impact - Trump's announcement of a "permanent pause" on migration from "Third World Countries" and a review of green card holders could significantly impact the labor market, potentially reducing U.S. workers by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, which may slash annual economic growth by nearly a third [4][3] - Analysts are divided on the implications of these immigration policies, with some predicting a "pro-growth" agenda while others warn of labor shortages and a potential "wage-price spiral" [3][4] Group 2: Tariff Threats and Economic Implications - Trump is threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10-20% tariff on other imports, which could lead to increased inflation and slower investment growth, as noted by Nomura [5] - The market has previously reacted to tariff announcements with volatility, as seen in the EU-US trade deal where a 15% tariff was imposed, initially causing a rise in European markets before reversing [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - On November 28, 2025, major U.S. indices saw modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.5%, Dow Jones up 0.6%, and Nasdaq up 0.7%, attributed to Trump's pro-growth rhetoric and the performance of tech stocks [4][7] - Despite the overall market gains, individual tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle faced significant losses, indicating that even leading companies are not immune to valuation concerns [7][8] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Markets - Trump's threats of military action against Venezuelan drug networks have contributed to increased geopolitical tensions, which typically benefit commodity markets, as evidenced by a rise in WTI crude oil and precious metals [9] Group 5: Analyst Sentiment and Economic Forecasts - Analysts express a mix of cautious optimism and frustration, with J.P. Morgan anticipating a mostly market-friendly agenda but highlighting risks from labor supply shocks, while Goldman Sachs projects a 2.5% U.S. economic growth in 2025, tempered by potential tariff impacts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment is characterized by a midcycle slowdown, which is seen as an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, potentially benefiting risk assets [2][3][5]. Economic Indicators - Inflation expectations remain stable at 2.5%, while real yields are approximately 1.5% with a 4% Treasury rate, indicating weaker growth [2]. - Global leading indicators have been stable but below trend, suggesting a mega cap growth environment, with expectations for lower rates and fiscal support to boost global activity [5]. Market Dynamics - There is a shift in focus towards neglected market sectors, particularly value sectors compared to technology, which may require a catalyst such as policy easing and increased activity [6][7]. - The market is experiencing volatility, often linked to policy uncertainty, but a better risk environment with less volatility is anticipated as rate cuts and fiscal policies are expected to improve economic outcomes [9]. Future Outlook - The expectation is for a reacceleration towards trend-like growth rather than a new higher growth level, which should be conducive for risk assets [3]. - The potential for rate cuts and fiscal policy support globally is seen as a positive signal for the market, particularly towards the end of the year and into the next [8][10].

Market Overview - Global markets ended the week higher, with Wall Street overcoming the U.S. government shutdown and the S&P 500 surpassing 6,700 for the first time, marking a five-month winning streak with a rise of approximately 3.5% for the week and over 14% year-to-date [1] Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar experienced its worst week since July, declining 0.1% on the DXY index to 97.69, influenced by shutdown uncertainty [2] - The euro strengthened by 0.2% to $1.1743, and sterling rose 0.3% to $1.3479, benefiting from softer U.S. data and diminishing dollar momentum [2] - The Swiss franc gained with USD/CHF down 0.4% for the week, while the yen remained volatile amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's next moves [2] Economic Data and Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began at midnight Wednesday, halted operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and canceled the nonfarm payrolls report, leaving traders to rely on alternative indicators like ADP employment and job-cut figures [3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that GDP growth could face a temporary setback, but investors remained largely unfazed [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The absence of official data complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of its meeting on October 28-29, where markets anticipate two more rate cuts by year-end [4] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks at a banking conference may provide insights into the central bank's next steps, especially in light of the lack of data [11] Upcoming Events - The week ahead includes the release of the Federal Reserve's latest Meeting Minutes and a vote by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on a 25bps interest rate cut, potentially lowering the rate to 2.75% [10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that challenges in the regulatory, legal, and policy landscape were cited by 15 of the 31 mega bankruptcies in their first-day declarations filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Courts [3] - The total number of "mega bankruptcies" filed by corporations with assets valued at more than $1 billion rose about 33% to 32 for the 12 months ended in June compared to 24 in the year-earlier period [7] - Inflation, high interest rates, and lingering impacts from COVID-19 are cited as top drivers of distress by filers, with policy changes and an uncertain regulatory landscape emerging as fresh causes of distress [7] Group 2 - Four of the biggest bankruptcy filers came from the renewable/clean energy sector, with Sunnova Energy International being the largest, having assets totaling $13.4 billion [4] - Sunnova stated that regulatory changes and uncertainty have put further pressure on both demand for its products and its ability to effectively raise capital [5] - Three companies on the mega bankruptcy list cited trade policy and tariff uncertainty as distress drivers, including Marelli Automotive Lighting USA, which was severely affected by tariffs [6]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility on July 17, with a drop to $3319.58 per ounce followed by a surge to $3377.17 due to market reactions to news about President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Powell [1][3] - Trump's denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, reflecting a 0.68% increase [1][3] - The market's concern over the independence of the Federal Reserve has become a significant driver for gold prices, as Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed raises uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks, particularly the recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reflecting historical trends where Middle Eastern conflicts boost gold prices [4] - Trump's trade policies, including threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate for over 150 countries, have added to market uncertainty, impacting inflation and economic growth outlooks [4]

Short-Term Market Outlook - The market was surprised by the resilience of global stocks, particularly Korean and Japanese stocks [1][2] - Recent news flow has been exceptionally positive, driven by fiscal tailwinds and strong macro data from the US and China [3] - Consensus forecasts for global GDP growth are being raised after a decline in May [4] - The delay in tariff deadlines has contributed to a positive short-term outlook [5] - The short-term outlook for stocks, both in the US and globally, is positive, with expectations of higher levels [5] Long-Term Concerns - Tariffs are expected to be damaging to the US and global economies in the long term [6] - Policy uncertainty poses a risk to US companies [6] - US stocks are expected to suffer from high valuations and ongoing policy uncertainty, leading to higher business costs [7] Currency and Emerging Markets - The recent US dollar strength is attributed to a short-term positioning squeeze [8][9] - A longer-term dollar depreciation trend is expected [9] - Tariffs are expected to have an inflationary impact, potentially leading to higher US yields [10] - Emerging markets (EM) are still considered attractive due to the expected dollar depreciation [11][12] - Dips in EM investments are expected to be bought into by investors [13]