Group 1 - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility on July 17, with a drop to $3319.58 per ounce followed by a surge to $3377.17 due to market reactions to news about President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Powell [1][3] - Trump's denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, reflecting a 0.68% increase [1][3] - The market's concern over the independence of the Federal Reserve has become a significant driver for gold prices, as Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed raises uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks, particularly the recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reflecting historical trends where Middle Eastern conflicts boost gold prices [4] - Trump's trade policies, including threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate for over 150 countries, have added to market uncertainty, impacting inflation and economic growth outlooks [4]

Short-Term Market Outlook - The market was surprised by the resilience of global stocks, particularly Korean and Japanese stocks [1][2] - Recent news flow has been exceptionally positive, driven by fiscal tailwinds and strong macro data from the US and China [3] - Consensus forecasts for global GDP growth are being raised after a decline in May [4] - The delay in tariff deadlines has contributed to a positive short-term outlook [5] - The short-term outlook for stocks, both in the US and globally, is positive, with expectations of higher levels [5] Long-Term Concerns - Tariffs are expected to be damaging to the US and global economies in the long term [6] - Policy uncertainty poses a risk to US companies [6] - US stocks are expected to suffer from high valuations and ongoing policy uncertainty, leading to higher business costs [7] Currency and Emerging Markets - The recent US dollar strength is attributed to a short-term positioning squeeze [8][9] - A longer-term dollar depreciation trend is expected [9] - Tariffs are expected to have an inflationary impact, potentially leading to higher US yields [10] - Emerging markets (EM) are still considered attractive due to the expected dollar depreciation [11][12] - Dips in EM investments are expected to be bought into by investors [13]