Right now, I want to bring in Brian Levit, chief market strategist at Invesco. Brian, good luck. Take everything you just heard, all the data you just got, and tell me uh what you'd be doing in the market these days.>> I actually found it all to be pretty enticing for the market. So, what you're looking at >> data or >> the the data in I mean, clearly it's a slowing economic environment when you >> Why is that enticing. Brings the Fed back in.>> Yeah. It's still resilient. Inflation expectations are contain ...

Market Overview - Global markets ended the week higher, with Wall Street overcoming the U.S. government shutdown and the S&P 500 surpassing 6,700 for the first time, marking a five-month winning streak with a rise of approximately 3.5% for the week and over 14% year-to-date [1] Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar experienced its worst week since July, declining 0.1% on the DXY index to 97.69, influenced by shutdown uncertainty [2] - The euro strengthened by 0.2% to $1.1743, and sterling rose 0.3% to $1.3479, benefiting from softer U.S. data and diminishing dollar momentum [2] - The Swiss franc gained with USD/CHF down 0.4% for the week, while the yen remained volatile amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's next moves [2] Economic Data and Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began at midnight Wednesday, halted operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and canceled the nonfarm payrolls report, leaving traders to rely on alternative indicators like ADP employment and job-cut figures [3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that GDP growth could face a temporary setback, but investors remained largely unfazed [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The absence of official data complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of its meeting on October 28-29, where markets anticipate two more rate cuts by year-end [4] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks at a banking conference may provide insights into the central bank's next steps, especially in light of the lack of data [11] Upcoming Events - The week ahead includes the release of the Federal Reserve's latest Meeting Minutes and a vote by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on a 25bps interest rate cut, potentially lowering the rate to 2.75% [10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that challenges in the regulatory, legal, and policy landscape were cited by 15 of the 31 mega bankruptcies in their first-day declarations filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Courts [3] - The total number of "mega bankruptcies" filed by corporations with assets valued at more than $1 billion rose about 33% to 32 for the 12 months ended in June compared to 24 in the year-earlier period [7] - Inflation, high interest rates, and lingering impacts from COVID-19 are cited as top drivers of distress by filers, with policy changes and an uncertain regulatory landscape emerging as fresh causes of distress [7] Group 2 - Four of the biggest bankruptcy filers came from the renewable/clean energy sector, with Sunnova Energy International being the largest, having assets totaling $13.4 billion [4] - Sunnova stated that regulatory changes and uncertainty have put further pressure on both demand for its products and its ability to effectively raise capital [5] - Three companies on the mega bankruptcy list cited trade policy and tariff uncertainty as distress drivers, including Marelli Automotive Lighting USA, which was severely affected by tariffs [6]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility on July 17, with a drop to $3319.58 per ounce followed by a surge to $3377.17 due to market reactions to news about President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Powell [1][3] - Trump's denial of the dismissal plan led to a narrowing of gold's gains, closing at $3347.38, reflecting a 0.68% increase [1][3] - The market's concern over the independence of the Federal Reserve has become a significant driver for gold prices, as Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed raises uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks, particularly the recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reflecting historical trends where Middle Eastern conflicts boost gold prices [4] - Trump's trade policies, including threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate for over 150 countries, have added to market uncertainty, impacting inflation and economic growth outlooks [4]

Short-Term Market Outlook - The market was surprised by the resilience of global stocks, particularly Korean and Japanese stocks [1][2] - Recent news flow has been exceptionally positive, driven by fiscal tailwinds and strong macro data from the US and China [3] - Consensus forecasts for global GDP growth are being raised after a decline in May [4] - The delay in tariff deadlines has contributed to a positive short-term outlook [5] - The short-term outlook for stocks, both in the US and globally, is positive, with expectations of higher levels [5] Long-Term Concerns - Tariffs are expected to be damaging to the US and global economies in the long term [6] - Policy uncertainty poses a risk to US companies [6] - US stocks are expected to suffer from high valuations and ongoing policy uncertainty, leading to higher business costs [7] Currency and Emerging Markets - The recent US dollar strength is attributed to a short-term positioning squeeze [8][9] - A longer-term dollar depreciation trend is expected [9] - Tariffs are expected to have an inflationary impact, potentially leading to higher US yields [10] - Emerging markets (EM) are still considered attractive due to the expected dollar depreciation [11][12] - Dips in EM investments are expected to be bought into by investors [13]