So let's let's talk a little bit about this consumer, because that cautious optimism, it's there. You know, you talk to certain people. Other folks would say that the consumer is totally tapped out and there's just not that much pricing power left when it comes to these retailers.And I wonder, you know, when you survey the landscape, what do you see right now. Well, it's funny. I don't know who TransUnion is, but I don't know how you get answers to a survey like that.I am a cynic when it comes to surveys. I ...

Core Insights - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market in urban China showed a 2% year-on-year sales growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with beverages leading the growth while dairy products faced challenges [1] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points [2] - Online channels experienced a 7% year-on-year sales growth, with major e-commerce platforms like Douyin and JD.com showing positive performance [10][12] Group 1: FMCG Market Performance - Urban China's FMCG market achieved a 2% year-on-year sales growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with beverages leading the growth [1] - Dairy products faced significant challenges, with declines in both purchase frequency and spend per trip [1] - Lower-tier cities remained key growth engines, with sales in town and county markets growing by 4.1% and 3.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Retailer Performance - Walmart Group's market share increased by 1 percentage point, driven by Sam's Club and community store formats [6] - Hema's overall share increased by 0.4 percentage points, with its ChaoHesuan format driving growth through value-for-money offerings [6] - The SPAR Group achieved significant growth in the East region, with its discount store model becoming a key growth driver [6] Group 3: Discount Store Format - The penetration of discount snack stores exceeded 31% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable increase in the West region [7] - Comprehensive discount stores saw a 2.3 percentage points year-on-year increase in penetration, driven by major players expanding their offerings [8] - Wumart Group accelerated its transition to a hard discount format, leveraging its existing store network [9] Group 4: Online Channels - Online channels demonstrated steady performance with a 7% year-on-year sales growth [10] - Douyin's penetration increased by 5.1 percentage points, reaching close to 50%, with significant growth in town-level markets [12] - Xiaohongshu's penetration reached 1.7%, reflecting its unique content community platform's effectiveness [13] Group 5: Private Label Development - Over 48% of Chinese urban households purchased private label products, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year [17] - Retailers are enhancing control over product supply chains to optimize costs and improve price advantages for private labels [17] - Traditional supermarkets and online platforms are actively promoting private label development to strengthen consumer loyalty [18]

Consumer Sentiment and Behavior - The consumer is currently in a strong position, with nominal wages up by 4% [1][18] - Despite concerns about tariffs and inflation, consumer spending is expected to remain robust during the holiday season [2][17] - Consumers are becoming more value-conscious, leading to a trend of trading down to private label products or alternatives [4][5] Retailer Strategies - Retailers like Target and Kohl's are focusing on private label offerings to cater to consumers looking for lower-cost options [3][4] - There is a notable shift in hiring practices, with Target announcing layoffs of about 8% of corporate staff, indicating a cautious approach to holiday staffing [8][10] - Retailers are leveraging technology and online sales to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, which may reduce the need for in-store staffing [11] Pricing and Inflation Impact - Retailers are managing the impact of tariffs and inflation through various strategies, which helps mitigate price increases for consumers [12][15] - Specific product prices are rising due to tariffs, but retailers like Walmart have managed to lower the overall cost of holiday staples, such as Thanksgiving dinner [15][16] - The overall impact of tariffs on consumer spending is estimated to be manageable, with potential increases in prices being offset by wage growth [18]

Core Insights - Amazon is launching a new private-label line called "Amazon Grocery," featuring over 1,000 items priced mostly under $5, aimed at value-conscious consumers facing inflation [1][2] - The strategy targets price-sensitive customers by offering store brands that are generally $2 cheaper than national brands, enhancing Amazon's value proposition and margin control [2][3] - The brand primarily operates online, allowing Amazon to maintain lower overhead costs and compete directly with discount retailers like Aldi and Walmart [3] Market Context - The consumer price index for food increased by 0.4% from July 2025 to August 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 3.2% [5] - The food-at-home CPI also rose by 0.4% during the same period, reflecting a 2.7% increase compared to August 2024 [5] - Certain food categories, particularly meat, poultry, fish, and eggs, have experienced significant price hikes, with egg prices being particularly volatile due to avian flu outbreaks [5]

Core Insights - Amazon has rebranded its private food labels under a new brand called Amazon Grocery, aiming to attract cost-conscious consumers as they seek savings on food [2][9] - The introduction of Amazon Grocery follows a 15% increase in sales of company-branded products, indicating a growing consumer preference for private-label items [2][5] - The new brand includes products from Amazon Fresh and Happy Belly, with most items priced under $5, enhancing accessibility for budget-conscious shoppers [2][4] Consumer Impact - Major retailers, including Walmart, recognize that consumers are financially strained and are looking for ways to save, with store-brand goods being a viable option for both consumers and companies [4][6] - Bank of America reported that private-label brands are, on average, $2 cheaper than their branded counterparts, further driving consumer interest in these products [5] - Other food companies, such as Albertsons and Casey's General Stores, are also expanding their private label offerings to cater to the rising demand for store brands [6][9]

Core Insights - Investindustrial has formed a new business named Windoria by combining US private-label manufacturer Winland Foods and Italy's La Doria, generating $4 billion in sales [1][2] - The merger is timely as private label sales in the US have outpaced branded products for the past three years [2] Company Overview - Windoria operates with 28 manufacturing plants and employs 5,000 people, providing a global scale and a vertically integrated supply chain [3] - Eric Beringause continues as CEO of both Winland Foods and Windoria, while Antonio Ferraioli remains CEO of La Doria Group and chairs the new business [3] Market Position - Windoria is positioned as a leader in food manufacturing, offering a wide range of products to meet evolving consumer preferences [4] - The company aims for further growth in other markets, including potential acquisitions [4] Recent Acquisitions - In 2024, La Doria acquired the sauces and pesto business Clas, enhancing its product offerings [4] - La Doria also signed an agreement to acquire the private-label dry pasta business unit of Pastificio di Martino Gaetano [5]

Summary of John B. Sanfilippo and Son (JBSS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: John B. Sanfilippo and Son (JBSS) - **Ticker**: JBSS on NASDAQ - **Founded**: 1922 as a pecan shelling operation in Chicago - **Current Status**: Largest vertically integrated sheller and processor of nuts in the U.S. with annual sales of $1.1 billion and over 200 distribution points nationwide [3][4] Core Business and Product Offerings - **Product Range**: Includes recipe nuts, trail mix, snack bars, and confectionery products [3] - **Manufacturing Capabilities**: - Five manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and one main distribution center in Huntley, Illinois - Processes over 1 billion pounds of products annually [4] - **Unique Capabilities**: Over 75 processing lines and 40 packaging lines, allowing for diverse product offerings [5][6] Financial Performance - **Sales Growth**: - Pounds sold increased at a 3.5% CAGR over the last ten years - Gross margin improved from 15% to over 18% - EPS grew at a 6.8% CAGR and stock price at 7.7% CAGR [10] - **EBITDA**: Consistently around $100 million since FY 2021, with FY 2025 expected to be a record high [11] - **Dividends**: Regular dividend increased from $0.50 in FY 2017 to $0.90 in the current year, with over $40 million paid in dividends since 2012 [12] Strategic Focus and Market Trends - **Consumer Channel Growth**: Shifted from 60% in FY 2015 to 82% in FY 2025, focusing on value-added products with predictable profit margins [15] - **Snack and Trail Mix Growth**: Increased from 12% to 25% of the portfolio over 12 years, with snack bars accounting for 14% of sales [8][9] - **Private Label Strategy**: 83% of business is private label, with a focus on expanding this segment due to growing consumer preference for private label products [31][40] Market Dynamics - **Retail Trends**: - The nut category is flat to shrinking in volume but has seen inflation-driven dollar increases [22] - The bar category is growing, particularly in higher-end products like protein bars [24] - **Consumer Behavior**: Younger consumers are increasingly seeking lower-priced, healthy snack options, while older demographics focus on value [48] Future Opportunities - **Bar Category Expansion**: Significant growth potential in the bar category, with plans to diversify offerings beyond mainstream bars to include nutrition and kid-friendly options [44][45] - **Investment in Capacity**: $50 million CapEx in FY 2025 for new snack bar lines, expected to enhance production capacity in FY 2027 [13][67] Challenges and Risks - **Commodity Cost Volatility**: The company manages commodity risk through pricing reviews every six months, as there are no hedges available for nut commodities [21] - **Competitive Pricing Pressure**: Facing aggressive pricing from competitors in the commercial ingredients channel, leading to a strategic deprioritization of this segment [17] Conclusion - **Long-term Strategy**: Maintain core nut and trail business while aggressively pursuing growth in the bar category, leveraging strong private label positioning and consumer trends towards healthier snacks [37][45]