Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for a complete overhaul of the Federal Reserve due to its poor performance under Jerome Powell's leadership [1][3]. Group 1: Criticism of Jerome Powell - Warsh criticizes Powell for failing to maintain appropriate interest rates and for not instilling confidence in the Federal Reserve's actions [2][3]. - He highlights that Powell's tenure has seen inflation rates remain above the Fed's target of 2%, with the latest report showing an inflation rate of 2.9% as of August [3]. - Warsh argues that the market's positive reaction to a recent interest rate cut indicates a loss of trust in Powell's commitment to controlling inflation [3]. Group 2: Call for Reform - Warsh suggests that the next Federal Reserve Chair must implement significant reforms, including delegating bank regulatory responsibilities to government agencies [4]. - He believes that the Treasury should oversee the Federal Reserve's asset holdings, especially after the large-scale asset purchases following the 2008 financial crisis [4]. - Warsh emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should cease holding substantial assets, as this has distorted market dynamics, particularly by lowering U.S. Treasury yields [4]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Chair Position - The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 4.00% and 4.25%, with President Trump expressing a desire for a reduction of up to three percentage points [5]. - Warsh acknowledges that he is not the only contender for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with other candidates including Kevin Hassett and current Fed Governor Waller [6][7]. - Trump's comments suggest that both candidates named Kevin are strong contenders, leaving the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair uncertain [7].

10月9日，下任美联储主席的潜在竞争者凯文.沃什(Kevin Warsh)公开表示，鉴于过往的不佳表现，美联 储需要彻底改革。 在沃什的公开发言中，他将美联储塑造成了一个需要"彻底的、自上而下改革的"机构，并抨击了鲍威尔 在过去几年的不佳表现。 抨击鲍威尔 沃什引用他与美联储前主席保罗.沃尔克曾经的对话称，央行的工作有两个注意事项：首先，使利率保 持适当水平；其次，政策制定者应该"确保自己看起来真的知道在做什么"。 "但鲍威尔在这两件事上都失败了"，沃什称，"他任期的大部分时间都未能让利率达到正确的水平。" 沃什称，曾任职于美联储的经历确实让他"过度思考货币政策"。不过他强调，财政部长贝森特并没有指 示他设定利率的细节，特朗普也没有。 沃什认为，市场对降息感到欢呼雀跃，美股也在当周上涨，表明降息是众望所归，但通胀率2%的承诺 仿佛被人抛之脑后。 在沃什看来，美联储用来分析经济数据的模型是错误的。"他们(美联储官员)认为通货膨胀是由消费 者、工资上涨过多和消费者支出过多推动的"，沃什对此并不认同，他倾向于"通胀是由政府支出和货币 供应量驱动的"。 沃什想规划出一条新路线，例如不再过分强调供应链和关税等因素对通胀 ...

Group 1: Economic Phases - The report divides West Germany's fiscal history from 1945 to 1990 into three phases: 1) 1945-1965 Post-war Reconstruction; 2) 1966-1980 Global Stagflation; 3) 1981-1990 Industrial Transformation[3] - The post-war reconstruction period (1945-1965) is characterized by debt reduction and economic miracles, driven by currency reform and the Marshall Plan, which injected approximately $1.6 billion into West Germany[7][31] - The global stagflation period (1966-1980) saw West Germany facing growth bottlenecks, transitioning from fiscal surplus to deficit, with government leverage increasing from 8% in 1970 to 15% in 1980[9][10] Group 2: Key Economic Policies - The currency reform in 1948 replaced 93.5% of the old currency, stabilizing the economy and eliminating hyperinflation risks[7][28] - The Marshall Plan provided crucial support for coal, steel, and infrastructure, helping West Germany's industrial production index rise from around 20 to nearly 90 by 1949[31][37] - The introduction of supply-side reforms in 1982 under Chancellor Helmut Kohl aimed to restructure the economy, reduce social welfare, and promote re-industrialization[11][12] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The steel crisis during the stagflation period highlighted structural weaknesses in West Germany's economy, leading to high unemployment and a decline in international competitiveness[10] - The government faced challenges in managing inflation and unemployment, with the unemployment rate fluctuating significantly during the 1970s[10][30] - The transition from demand-side management to supply-side reforms marked a significant shift in economic policy, reflecting the need for structural adjustments[11][12]

因此，通过传统手段抑制通胀反而加剧了经济收缩的压力。许多政府如今面临"滞胀"威胁 —— 即经济衰退伴随通货膨胀。央行深知这种权衡关系：通胀下 降需以经济增长的相应收缩为代价。 作者：Jomo Kwame Sundaram，联合国前官员、马来西亚经济学家、亚太智库研究员 南非约翰内斯堡，国际新闻社。2025年9月23日，美国总统特朗普对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的尖刻抨击，重新唤起了人们对央行独立性的支持 —— 这种 独立性长期以来被强大的金融利益集团所滥用，损害了经济增长与公平性。 独立的中央银行本应提升货币政策的质量、公平性以及对经济增长的影响力。但如今，它们主要服务于强大的金融利益集团，其紧缩性和倒退性政策导致经 济缓慢且不均衡的增长。 独立于谁？ 中央银行的设立旨在通过制定货币政策来塑造金融环境，从而实现国家经济目标。近几十年来，新的政策共识认为独立的中央银行应制定货币政策。因此， 在较小规模的开放型发展中国家，这些银行往往受到强大金融利益集团（通常是外国势力）的裹挟。 过去半个世纪里，许多政府在国际金融势力影响下修改法律，确立中央银行独立于行政和立法部门与政府地位平等。与此同时，随着"通货膨胀目标制"成 ...

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Group 1 - The overall price level in China remains low, primarily due to supply-demand imbalances in the domestic economy, with experts emphasizing that inflation is fundamentally driven by economic supply and demand factors rather than merely monetary phenomena [1] - The historical context of the view that "inflation is a monetary phenomenon" is based on conditions where the growth rate of money supply consistently exceeds that of output, which is not the case in China's current economic landscape [1] - China's macroeconomic policies have shifted from promoting investment to ensuring supply, leading to a situation of oversupply, with the main constraint on prices being insufficient demand [1] Group 2 - Expanding domestic demand and addressing internal competition are expected to facilitate economic circulation and promote a reasonable recovery in prices [2] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial policies to support service consumption, reflecting the central government's commitment to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [2] - Recent measures to optimize supply include the implementation of regulations to address low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which are anticipated to create a more rational competitive environment and positively impact price recovery [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent cooling of the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction and the poor performance of Japanese bonds, signaling potential financial crisis risks [1][2] - It highlights the resurgence of stagflation and the failure of Keynesianism, drawing parallels to the 1970s economic turmoil [1][2] - The article critiques Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its implications for U.S. and Japanese debt levels, with Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio at 260% and U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion [2][3] Group 2 - The concept of "privileged currency" under MMT is examined, suggesting that the ability to print money is being challenged by rising bond yields, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5% [2][3] - The article argues that the illusion of "debt monetization" is being dismantled as inflation pressures shift to asset bubbles and currency volatility [3][4] - It emphasizes the historical context of Japan's economic policies and the potential consequences of reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5][6] Group 3 - The article notes the rise in gold prices as a reaction to the perceived failures of the modern monetary system, indicating a loss of confidence in sovereign currencies [4][5] - It discusses the implications of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the potential for a currency devaluation-type default, with estimates of a 30%-40% loss in purchasing power for investors [6][7] - The article warns of a potential financial crisis as foreign investment in U.S. debt declines, reminiscent of the 1971 "Nixon Shock" [6][7] Group 4 - The article concludes with a historical perspective on the cyclical nature of economic theories, emphasizing the importance of learning from past mistakes and the need for genuine economic recovery based on productivity and equity [7][8]