下一任美联储主席人选仍在激烈角逐中。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普12月12日表示，美联储前理事凯文·沃什是下一任美联储主席职位的头 号候选人，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特也很出色。不过，在12月初，特朗普曾暗示他可能提 名哈西特为美联储主席候选人。 特朗普曾表示，他将在明年年初揭晓最终人选。截至发稿，在线博彩网polymarket显示，沃什获得提名 的概率升到了47%，而哈西特的获胜概率已从12月3日的85%降到了41%。 特朗普对下一任美联储主席人选的选择显得慎之又慎。他曾多次对2017年提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席表 达了后悔。鲍威尔的任期将在明年5月结束。特朗普当时选择鲍威尔主要是听从了时任财政部长姆努钦 的建议。当时，沃什也是候选人之一。 曾在2017年被淘汰的沃什为何又成为特朗普的"宠儿"？他有何来头？ 华尔街精英，曾是美联储最年轻的理事 沃什出生于1970年4月，他目前是斯坦·德鲁肯米勒家族办公室Duquesne的合伙人、斯坦福大学访问学 者。德鲁肯米勒是美国传奇投资人，他与美国财政部长贝森特都曾在索罗斯基金担任要职。而此次美联 储主席候选人的遴选也主要通过贝森特执行。 据巴伦杂志报道，沃什的 ...

114 120 2 主笔王晓莹 没否认也没确认 围绕降息问题,特朗普与现任美联储主席鲍威尔的矛盾早已公开化。尽管未能如愿"炒掉"鲍威尔,但特朗 普早在今年8月就提过一份下一任美联储主席候选人名单,分别是凯文.哈西特、前美联储理事凯文.沃什 和现任美联储理事克里斯托弗.沃勒。 g 距离美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)现任主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔卸任还有半年时间,美国总统特朗普就迫不及 待地在12月2日年内最后一次内阁会议上预告,可能在明年1月初公布下一任美联储主席提名人选。关于 鲍威尔的继任者,各方猜测过几个名字,而特朗普已表示"做好了决定"。目前,白宫国家经济委员会主任凯 文.哈西特是"头号候选人"。 哈西特执掌过的白宫经济顾问委员会由三位学术型经济学家组成,主要负责白宫内部经济分析,包括联络 多个联邦政府部门向白宫汇报美国经济数据情况、向国会提交总统年度经济报告等。他现在领导的白宫 国家经济委员会则是总统行政办公室的一部分,主要职能是就美国和全球经济政策向总统提供政策建议, 负责协调和落实总统提出的经济政策目标,其政策决定可能直接影响美国经济。 有媒体称,哈西特满足特朗普用人的两大标准——忠诚且能得到市场认可。很多与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fixed capital investment in Russia is projected to decline by 3.1% in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, with a modest growth of only 1.7% expected for the year 2025, indicating a significant slowdown in investment growth compared to previous years [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Fixed capital investment growth rates were 9.8% in 2023, 7.4% in 2024, and are expected to be only 1.7% in 2025, highlighting a downward trend [1] - The decline in investment is attributed to tight monetary policies that hinder economic growth and technological advancement [1] Group 2: Implications of Investment Decline - The decrease in investment leads to a lack of new job creation [3] - Increased wear and tear on equipment is a consequence of reduced investment [3] - The technological gap is worsening due to insufficient investment in modernization [3] Group 3: Recommendations - It is suggested to halt high-interest rate policies that obstruct investment [4] - Measures should be taken to stop capital outflow and utilize raw material export revenues for national economic modernization and the development of emerging industries [4] - Restoring the right to decent work and confidence in the future for the populace is essential, particularly through labor law reforms [4]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for a complete overhaul of the Federal Reserve due to its poor performance under Jerome Powell's leadership [1][3]. Group 1: Criticism of Jerome Powell - Warsh criticizes Powell for failing to maintain appropriate interest rates and for not instilling confidence in the Federal Reserve's actions [2][3]. - He highlights that Powell's tenure has seen inflation rates remain above the Fed's target of 2%, with the latest report showing an inflation rate of 2.9% as of August [3]. - Warsh argues that the market's positive reaction to a recent interest rate cut indicates a loss of trust in Powell's commitment to controlling inflation [3]. Group 2: Call for Reform - Warsh suggests that the next Federal Reserve Chair must implement significant reforms, including delegating bank regulatory responsibilities to government agencies [4]. - He believes that the Treasury should oversee the Federal Reserve's asset holdings, especially after the large-scale asset purchases following the 2008 financial crisis [4]. - Warsh emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should cease holding substantial assets, as this has distorted market dynamics, particularly by lowering U.S. Treasury yields [4]. Group 3: Uncertainty in Chair Position - The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 4.00% and 4.25%, with President Trump expressing a desire for a reduction of up to three percentage points [5]. - Warsh acknowledges that he is not the only contender for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with other candidates including Kevin Hassett and current Fed Governor Waller [6][7]. - Trump's comments suggest that both candidates named Kevin are strong contenders, leaving the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair uncertain [7].

Group 1 - Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, calls for a complete overhaul of the Fed due to its poor performance under Jerome Powell [1][2] - Warsh criticizes Powell for failing to maintain appropriate interest rates and for not achieving the inflation target of 2%, with the current inflation rate reported at 2.9% as of August [2][4] - He argues that the Fed's economic models are flawed, believing inflation is driven by government spending and money supply rather than consumer spending and wage increases [2][3] Group 2 - Warsh advocates for significant reforms within the Fed, suggesting that it should relinquish some regulatory powers to government agencies and that the Treasury should oversee the Fed's asset holdings [4][5] - He emphasizes that the Fed's large asset holdings, which were justified during the 2008 financial crisis, should be reduced as the crisis has passed, to avoid distorting market yields on U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The current target range for the federal funds rate is between 4.00% and 4.25%, with President Trump expressing a desire for a reduction of up to three percentage points [5][6] Group 3 - Warsh is not the only contender for the Fed Chair position; other candidates include Kevin Hassett and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [6][7] - Waller's chances are considered low due to his lack of connection with Trump's inner circle and past criticism from Trump's camp for supporting a 50 basis point rate cut [7]

Group 1: Economic Phases - The report divides West Germany's fiscal history from 1945 to 1990 into three phases: 1) 1945-1965 Post-war Reconstruction; 2) 1966-1980 Global Stagflation; 3) 1981-1990 Industrial Transformation[3] - The post-war reconstruction period (1945-1965) is characterized by debt reduction and economic miracles, driven by currency reform and the Marshall Plan, which injected approximately $1.6 billion into West Germany[7][31] - The global stagflation period (1966-1980) saw West Germany facing growth bottlenecks, transitioning from fiscal surplus to deficit, with government leverage increasing from 8% in 1970 to 15% in 1980[9][10] Group 2: Key Economic Policies - The currency reform in 1948 replaced 93.5% of the old currency, stabilizing the economy and eliminating hyperinflation risks[7][28] - The Marshall Plan provided crucial support for coal, steel, and infrastructure, helping West Germany's industrial production index rise from around 20 to nearly 90 by 1949[31][37] - The introduction of supply-side reforms in 1982 under Chancellor Helmut Kohl aimed to restructure the economy, reduce social welfare, and promote re-industrialization[11][12] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The steel crisis during the stagflation period highlighted structural weaknesses in West Germany's economy, leading to high unemployment and a decline in international competitiveness[10] - The government faced challenges in managing inflation and unemployment, with the unemployment rate fluctuating significantly during the 1970s[10][30] - The transition from demand-side management to supply-side reforms marked a significant shift in economic policy, reflecting the need for structural adjustments[11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is being questioned as they increasingly serve powerful financial interests, leading to slow and uneven economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central banks were established to shape financial environments and achieve national economic goals, but they are often influenced by strong financial interests, particularly in smaller, open developing countries [2]. - The shift towards central bank independence has led to a focus on inflation targeting, equating financial stability with price stability, which can exacerbate economic contraction during inflationary periods [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Inequality - The policies of central banks, particularly through interest rate hikes to combat inflation, have disproportionately affected low-income families, leading to increased unemployment and reduced income levels [4][6]. - The negative impacts of rising interest rates have not been offset by any positive effects, as banks benefit from higher interest income while the broader population suffers [4][6]. Group 3: Quantitative Easing - Quantitative easing (QE) emerged as a response to the limitations of traditional monetary policy, aiming to stimulate the economy by purchasing financial assets [5][6]. - QE has led to increased asset prices, benefiting wealthier individuals and exacerbating wealth inequality, as the richest segments of society see their asset values rise significantly [7][8].

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

Group 1 - The overall price level in China remains low, primarily due to supply-demand imbalances in the domestic economy, with experts emphasizing that inflation is fundamentally driven by economic supply and demand factors rather than merely monetary phenomena [1] - The historical context of the view that "inflation is a monetary phenomenon" is based on conditions where the growth rate of money supply consistently exceeds that of output, which is not the case in China's current economic landscape [1] - China's macroeconomic policies have shifted from promoting investment to ensuring supply, leading to a situation of oversupply, with the main constraint on prices being insufficient demand [1] Group 2 - Expanding domestic demand and addressing internal competition are expected to facilitate economic circulation and promote a reasonable recovery in prices [2] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial policies to support service consumption, reflecting the central government's commitment to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [2] - Recent measures to optimize supply include the implementation of regulations to address low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which are anticipated to create a more rational competitive environment and positively impact price recovery [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent cooling of the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction and the poor performance of Japanese bonds, signaling potential financial crisis risks [1][2] - It highlights the resurgence of stagflation and the failure of Keynesianism, drawing parallels to the 1970s economic turmoil [1][2] - The article critiques Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its implications for U.S. and Japanese debt levels, with Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio at 260% and U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion [2][3] Group 2 - The concept of "privileged currency" under MMT is examined, suggesting that the ability to print money is being challenged by rising bond yields, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5% [2][3] - The article argues that the illusion of "debt monetization" is being dismantled as inflation pressures shift to asset bubbles and currency volatility [3][4] - It emphasizes the historical context of Japan's economic policies and the potential consequences of reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5][6] Group 3 - The article notes the rise in gold prices as a reaction to the perceived failures of the modern monetary system, indicating a loss of confidence in sovereign currencies [4][5] - It discusses the implications of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the potential for a currency devaluation-type default, with estimates of a 30%-40% loss in purchasing power for investors [6][7] - The article warns of a potential financial crisis as foreign investment in U.S. debt declines, reminiscent of the 1971 "Nixon Shock" [6][7] Group 4 - The article concludes with a historical perspective on the cyclical nature of economic theories, emphasizing the importance of learning from past mistakes and the need for genuine economic recovery based on productivity and equity [7][8]