Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]

上述专家认为，扩内需、治内卷有望畅通经济循环，促进物价合理回升。 当前，我国物价总体保持低位运行，权威专家表示，国内实体经济供需矛盾是主要原因，"通货膨胀是 货币现象"的观点有其诞生的时代背景和前提条件，经济供求因素才是引起物价变动的第一阶原因。 据上述专家解释，物价从根本上是实体经济供需双方相互作用的结果，对于货币主义"通货膨胀是货币 现象"的观点在讨论物价时常有人提到，但这一论断是有前提假设的，其完整表述是"在货币数量增速持 续超过产出增速的条件下，通货膨胀无论何时何地都是一种货币现象"，即只有当货币增速超过产出增 速时，多增发货币才可能引发物价上涨。而且这一表述当时流行，也有上世纪60—70年代发达经济体劳 动力和能源紧张、供给不足的时代背景，货币供给增多带来需求扩张，最终都表现为供大于求物价上 升。 "这与我国当前的经济供求形势不同，过去很长一段时间我国宏观政策思路都是促投资、保供给，供给 短缺的局面已经发生根本转变，出现了供过于求的现象，当前制约物价的主要是需求不足。"上述专家 称。 从扩内需的角度看，货币政策支持力度持续较大。5月中国人民银行推出一揽子增量金融政策，为了支 持服务消费，还专门创设了 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent cooling of the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction and the poor performance of Japanese bonds, signaling potential financial crisis risks [1][2] - It highlights the resurgence of stagflation and the failure of Keynesianism, drawing parallels to the 1970s economic turmoil [1][2] - The article critiques Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its implications for U.S. and Japanese debt levels, with Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio at 260% and U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion [2][3] Group 2 - The concept of "privileged currency" under MMT is examined, suggesting that the ability to print money is being challenged by rising bond yields, with U.S. 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5% [2][3] - The article argues that the illusion of "debt monetization" is being dismantled as inflation pressures shift to asset bubbles and currency volatility [3][4] - It emphasizes the historical context of Japan's economic policies and the potential consequences of reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5][6] Group 3 - The article notes the rise in gold prices as a reaction to the perceived failures of the modern monetary system, indicating a loss of confidence in sovereign currencies [4][5] - It discusses the implications of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the potential for a currency devaluation-type default, with estimates of a 30%-40% loss in purchasing power for investors [6][7] - The article warns of a potential financial crisis as foreign investment in U.S. debt declines, reminiscent of the 1971 "Nixon Shock" [6][7] Group 4 - The article concludes with a historical perspective on the cyclical nature of economic theories, emphasizing the importance of learning from past mistakes and the need for genuine economic recovery based on productivity and equity [7][8]