1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to increased imports from India and relatively high short - term inventory, but the supply is likely to tighten in the long run. The rapeseed meal futures price is oscillating downward, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty. The price is in a range - bound oscillation, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) closed at 9374 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) closed at 2487 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures (active) closed at 707.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) closed at 5328 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 206 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 192 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 305,440 lots, up 12,513 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 637,424 lots, up 60,942 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was 34,744 lots, up 8,830 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 50,162 lots, down 12,921 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 0, down 1,707; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 0, down 31,218 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9377.5 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5145.76 yuan/ton, down 49.96 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 2 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 67 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8670 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1140 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total rapeseed import quantity in the current month was 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 30 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed was 42.51%, up 17.06 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 32 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 16.05 million tons, up 2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory was 64.9 million tons, down 0.64 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 45.42 million tons, down 0.17 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 0.72 million tons, down 3.11 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal was 5.01 million tons, down 0.34 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Social consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 22.17%, up 0.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 27.56%, up 0.31 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was down 0.07 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.47%, down 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 16.77%, down 0.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed mixed on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 0.21% due to heavy technical resistance. The 7 - month contract fell 1.5 Canadian dollars to 710.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract rose 6.2 Canadian dollars to 676.80 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract rose 6 Canadian dollars to 684.00 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - South American rapeseed production is gradually being realized, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, the USDA expects the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season to be 295 million bushels, significantly lower than market expectations, which is bullish for the market [2]. Key Points to Watch - The EPA administrator said that the RVO will be announced within two weeks, and attention should be paid to the demand for US soybean oil for biodiesel [2]. - In China, the import volume of rapeseed in the first quarter decreased, reducing the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side. After the tariff increase, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil has increased significantly, limiting future import volumes [2]. - Monitor the rapeseed开机率 and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions on Monday of MyAgriNet, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].