Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic market is mainly trading the issue of long - term supply, with the overall performance showing a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset. Although there are some suppressing factors such as high oil - mill operation rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation, factors like low near - month rapeseed arrivals, increased seasonal demand in aquaculture, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the market also maintains a bullish mindset. Despite the short - term constraints of the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply, factors such as low oil - mill operation rates, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market has experienced a slight decline from its high and filled the gap, but remains volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) was 9828 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2627 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) was 645.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) was 4874 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) was 145 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) was 110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 279,566 lots, down 9038 lots; rapeseed meal main - contract positions were 436,474 lots, down 1510 lots. Rapeseed oil's top 20 futures net long positions were 7628 lots, up 4995 lots; rapeseed meal's were 5009 lots, up 2985 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 8633 sheets, down 88 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong was 2610 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average rapeseed oil price was 10,095 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 180 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: Spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8620 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9510 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 320 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 460 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 million tons, unchanged; weekly import rapeseed operation rate was 11.94%, down 4.9% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons, up 0.34 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons, up 0.52 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry for the month was 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility was 20.98%, down 1.43%; at - the - money put option implied volatility was 20.97%, down 1.45%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility was up 0.26% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal 20 - day historical volatility was 31.15%, up 0.06%; 60 - day historical volatility was 21.32%, up 0.03%. Rapeseed oil 20 - day historical volatility was 13.44%, up 0.54%; 60 - day historical volatility was 13.47%, up 0.28% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined on August 19. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 5.70 Canadian dollars to settle at 646 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 5.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 657.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which was overall bullish for the market. However, the good US soybean good - quality rate still constrained prices, and the market awaited the results of ProFarmer's inspection of US Midwest crops [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from My Agricultural Network, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall view is to maintain a bullish stance. Although the domestic oil mill operation rate is relatively high and soybean meal is in a state of inventory accumulation, which suppresses the price of the meal market, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is also recommended to participate from a bullish perspective. In the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain the market price. But the low oil mill operation rate reduces the output pressure, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply - side pressure, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active - contract closing price is 9850 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; ICE rapeseed's is 652.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and domestic rapeseed's is 4919 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread is 151 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread is 99 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Main - contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main - contract position is 288,604 lots, down 2034 lots; rapeseed meal's is 437,984 lots, up 3654 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil's is 2633 lots, down 175 lots; rapeseed meal's is 2024 lots, up 7061 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil's is 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal's is 8721 sheets, down 1100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,030 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9710 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil's average price is 10,095 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. - Import cost: The import cost of rapeseed is 8220.57 yuan/ton, down 86.21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main - contract basis is 204 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price spread is 460 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production forecasts: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; domestic rapeseed annual production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity is 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import quantity is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, up 5 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.94%, down 4.9 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.45 tons, down 0.55 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons, down 0.65 tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.2 tons, down 0.72 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons, up 0.68 tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5 tons, down 0.5 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.8 tons, up 0.8 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 is 3.76 tons, up 0.29 tons; rapeseed meal's is 3.24 tons, up 0.52 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on August 18, trading within the previous week's range. Tight supply limited the decline. The most actively traded November contract closed down 9.20 Canadian dollars at 651.70 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract closed down 9.40 Canadian dollars at 663.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which is overall bullish. However, the good condition of US soybeans restrains the market price, and the market is waiting for the results of ProFarmer's inspection of Midwest crops [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕观点**: Market expectations are affected by multiple factors. In the international market, the high good - rate of US soybeans and good weather in production areas lead to strong expectations of a good harvest, while Sino - US trade tensions limit price increases. Domestically, high oil - mill operation rates and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the meal market. There are expectations of a decline in future pig inventories and promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. For rapeseed meal itself, less rapeseed is expected to arrive in the near - term, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market has been volatile recently, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **菜油观点**: In the international market, the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports may lead to inventory build - up, while the large increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. However, the decrease in oil - mill operation rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce output and supply pressure. Supported by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil prices have also increased, with increased short - term volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9615 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2724 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 68 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 285 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [2]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 188,408 lots, up 6,762 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 413,741 lots, up 13,330 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is 28,488 lots, up 4,039 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is 17,129 lots, down 3,063 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,640 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,665 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of rapeseed is 4,852.48 yuan/ton, down 2.9 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.62, down 0.02. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 58 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 84 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 210 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, down 5 million tons. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 16.52%, up 1.59 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Import Quantities**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.65 million tons, up 1.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.7 million tons, up 0.8 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 55.5 million tons, down 0.77 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.7 million tons, up 0.15 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.5 million tons, down 3.6 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.7 million tons, down 1.57 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.24 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.76%, up 0.7 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.65%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.68%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.47%, up 0.08 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Canada**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 856,096 tons, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 10.27% increase from the same period last year [2]. - **USA**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market Situation**: The overall situation of the rapeseed - related market is complex, with various factors influencing the prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. The market is affected by international trade, weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and related policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to high oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory accumulation, expected decline in pig存栏, and policies for reducing soybean meal substitution. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand provide some support. The market is volatile and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is constrained by the off - season of consumption, high inventory in oil mills, and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply. But the reduction in oil - mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease the supply pressure. The market is in an overall volatile state with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil (active contract) were 9542 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) were 2678 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) were 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton (down 12.1 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed (active contract) were 5122 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil was 70 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal was 246 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 24449 lots (up 6537 lots) and for rapeseed meal were 20192 lots (up 3504 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal was 1200 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 4855.38 yuan/ton (down 69.12 yuan). The oil - meal ratio was 3.64 (up 0.05) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 78 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8420 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8820 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons (up 4 tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (down 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.52% (up 1.59%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.65 tons (up 1.1 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 tons (up 0.8 tons); the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.5 tons (down 0.77 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 33.41 tons (down 1.72 tons); the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.7 tons (up 0.15 tons), and the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 26.1 tons (down 0.9 tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.27 tons (up 0.36 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 3.43 tons (up 1.11 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.58% (down 2.02%), and that of put options was 22.57% (down 2.04%); for rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 13.16% (down 2.15%) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 19.06% (up 0.1%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 17.35% (up 0.08%); for rapeseed oil, the 20 - day historical volatility was 11.5% (down 0.16%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 12.39% (down 0.02%) [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Friday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.9% to a two - week low due to heavy selling by speculative funds [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 67% [2]. Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed oil - mill operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in each region reported by Myagric on Monday [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the United States [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture is coming, which boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The high - operating rate of oil mills and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expected decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. The short - term trading is recommended, mainly due to the decline in positions after the previous continuous rise [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined from July 1 - 20, which restricts palm oil prices. But the significant increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with a relatively loose supply of vegetable oil and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, restricting market prices. However, the decrease in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may reduce forward pressure. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil rose synchronously, but due to the expected resumption of China - Australia trade, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil recently, with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,492 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 698.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,082 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed oil was 53 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed meal was 270 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 211,985 lots, down 8,793 lots; the open interest of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 512,685 lots, down 25,919 lots [2]. - **Net Long Positions of Top 20 Holders**: The net long positions of rapeseed oil were 12,249 lots, up 4,034 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal were 22,215 lots, down 11,788 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,570 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,860 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - **Average Price and Related Ratios**: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 4,990.05 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 3.5, down 0.05; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal was - 112 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Import**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the crushing profit of imported rapeseed was 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 9.25 million tons, down 0.04 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal areas was 1.2 million tons, down 0.31 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region was 58.45 million tons, down 0.82 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the East China region was 35.13 million tons, down 2.91 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region was 5.6 million tons, down 0.32 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the South China region was 27 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 million tons, down 0.38 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed was 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4,578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.55%, up 3.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 0.69 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.67%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 23, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the vegetable oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 8.10 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 698.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the analyst's expectation of 71%, the previous week's 70%, and the same as the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is currently good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic rapeseed meal market is influenced by multiple factors. Internationally, the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage, with favorable rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which puts pressure on the market. The US soybean has a high - yield expectation despite a slightly lower - than - expected good rate. Domestically, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has led to a high oil - mill operating rate and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal, suppressing the price of the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is generally stronger than the overseas market and maintains a relatively strong operation [2]. - For rapeseed oil, globally, the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 and the significant increase in Indonesian exports, along with positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors, affect the global oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decrease in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9456 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil is 53 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 314 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8215 lots, down 323 lots; for rapeseed meal are 34003 lots, down 6409 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 690 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar; that of domestic rapeseed futures is 5165 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price is 9690 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2660 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.55, down 0.05. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 173 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 98 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual output of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted output of rapeseed in a certain region is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.05 yuan/ton, down 0.8 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 340,000 tons, up 100,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 287,900 tons, up 41,300 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92,500 tons, down 400 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 584,500 tons, down 8,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 351,300 tons, down 29,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 56,000 tons, down 3,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 270,000 tons, down 12,000 tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 29,100 tons, down 3,800 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 23,200 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762,100 tons, up 98,100 tons. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440,400 tons, down 87,000 tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 45.782 billion yuan, up 4.112 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.88%, up 0.82 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 22.89%, up 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 12.54%, down 4.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.84%, down 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 10.75%, down 0.55 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.9%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 22, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the second consecutive day due to beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which supported the crop yield outlook. The benchmark November rapeseed futures closed 4.10 Canadian dollars lower at 690.00 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71% and the previous week's 70%, but still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas was good, with a strong high - yield expectation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the current high good - rate of US soybeans and concentrated arrival of imported soybeans lead to short - term supply relaxation and pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture increases the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The domestic rapeseed meal market is stronger than the external market due to trade policy uncertainty, and it may maintain short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the increase in palm oil inventory and the weakening of palm oil prices, along with the off - season of domestic oil consumption and high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, restrain the market price. However, the decline in rapeseed oil production pressure and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future supply. The rapeseed oil market is boosted by the strengthening of soybean oil and shows increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9470 yuan/ton (up 66 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2653 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), ICE rapeseed is 689 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.5 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5065 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan) [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 72 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 344 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 14661 lots (up 228 lots), and for rapeseed meal are 24639 lots (up 10416 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 8911 (down 1175) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9570 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the oil - meal ratio is 3.64 (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 166 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 93 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8230 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8770 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2820 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the domestic annual forecast is 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and inventory: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 297 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86% (down 2.67%) [2]. Industry Situation - Imports and inventories: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.29 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons (up 1.05 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 million tons (up 1.18 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.46 million tons (up 0.14 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons (up 98.1 million tons), and that of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons. The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.25% (down 0.17%), and that of put options is 19.25% (down 0.18%). For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of call options is 11.73% (down 1.76%), and that of put options is 11.72% (down 1.77%) [2]. Industry News - On July 15, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, driven by the rise of other oils. The most actively traded November contract rose 8.20 Canadian dollars to 690.80 Canadian dollars per ton. As of July 13, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, up 4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the expected 67% [2].

1. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, the current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth is "weather - dominated". The reduction of hot weather and beneficial rainfall in the Canadian plains this week bring pressure. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, and the short - term supply is loose, suppressing the price of the rapeseed meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for news on Sino - US trade negotiations. Recently, rapeseed meal has risen and may remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, although the production of Malaysian palm oil declines against the seasonal pattern, the unexpected drop in export data makes the MPOB report bearish. High - frequency data shows that the export improvement from July 1 - 10 provides some support, and the rebound of international oil prices also supports the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The uncertainty of third - quarter rapeseed purchases and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. Affected by the weakening of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil has declined in a volatile manner and may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9424 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 683 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.9 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5099 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 81 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 355 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 16649 lots, up 1298 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 4915 lots, up 6885 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 256301 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 560897 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 sheets, and for rapeseed meal is 12466 sheets [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 4893.66 yuan/ton, down 30.48 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.69, down 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 171 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 109 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 810 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200 thousand tons, up 50 thousand tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86%, down 2.67 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 304 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92.9 thousand tons, down 7.2 thousand tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 15.1 thousand tons, up 10.5 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 592.7 thousand tons, down 6.8 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 355.8 thousand tons, down 13.2 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 69 thousand tons, down 3 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 293 thousand tons, down 8 thousand tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 21.1 thousand tons, down 8.9 thousand tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 23.2 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981 thousand tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 2.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.17%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.02%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.45%, down 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.48%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.49%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.82%, down 2.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.19%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 2.7 Industry News - On July 11th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the improved weather conditions in the Canadian plains. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract closed down 2.40 Canadian dollars at 682.70 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 2.50 Canadian dollars to 691.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year. The current weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the good - to - excellent rate is relatively high. The US tariff issue may damage the downstream demand for US soybeans and restrict the market price [2]. 2.8 Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions released by myagric on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕**: The current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Weekend rainfall in western Canada and expected heavy rainfall this week have alleviated the previous drought. In the US, the soybean good - rate is relatively high and the domestic soybean supply is increasing, which suppresses the meal market. Domestically, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is rising, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news. The rapeseed meal closed up in a volatile manner today and may maintain volatility in the short term [2] - **菜油**: Internationally, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and international biodiesel policies support the palm oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil closed down with reduced positions, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 704.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5079 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 60 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 273 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil were 15732 lots, down 2370 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal were - 11828 lots, up 2352 lots. The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil were 281867 lots, down 712 lots; the positions of the main contracts of rapeseed meal were 567429 lots, down 12874 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3021, up 301; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 15663, down 136 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2480 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5041.46 yuan/ton, up 52.97 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.77, unchanged [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1080 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - **Imports and Processing**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2] - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2] - **Consumption**: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.25%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.34%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 17.01%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.54%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal and other related data were not fully provided [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, with the most active November contract up 7.30 Canadian dollars to 704.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the same period last year [2] - The average forecast of analysts before the MPOB report was that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June would drop to 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from May [2]