菜籽系产业日报 2026-02-24 期至3月9日，延期是由于案件复杂。中加贸易局势仍未完全明朗化，短期内继续牵制菜籽的商业买船，菜油供应端压力仍相对有限 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 。盘面来看，在外围油脂走强提振下，节后国内菜油高开偏强震荡，呈现补涨态势。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 求淡季，菜粕需求以刚性为主。盘面来看，今日菜粕震荡略有收跌，短线交易为主。 | | 加拿大农业部表示，2026/27年度油菜籽产量预计为1920万吨，低于上年的2180万吨。期末库存165万吨，低于上年的275万吨。 | | --- | --- | | 菜油观点总 | 其供需格局有望 ...

主。 国新增加菜籽采购，供应增加预期得到强化。盘面来看，受加菜籽买船消息影响，菜油仍受牵制，近期市场波动加剧，短线参与为 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 菜籽系产业日报 2026-02-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9096 | -41 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2244 | 6 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 21 | -13 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -48 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 266839 | -5934 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 934733 | -141 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -17897 | -3944 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9215 | 79 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2249 | -27 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 80 | 8 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -38 | -17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 285363 | 1028 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 922401 | 9439 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -14551 | -2962 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -229177 | -22631 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 625 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 645.4 | -2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 6007 | 32 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. Affected by the improvement of China-Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation overall [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, the improvement of China-Canada trade relations has increased the long - term supply pressure, causing rapeseed oil to decline in oscillation and increasing short - term volatility [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was -21 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was -66 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract was 253,596 lots, down 16,032 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract was 1,013,517 lots, up 95,878 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were -20,757 lots, down 14,342 lots; for rapeseed meal were -272,749 lots, down 31,903 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,942 sheets, down 200 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 637.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,280 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,956.25 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 7,636.99 yuan/ton, up 46.97 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,300 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 4.04, up 0.09 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 820 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast for the year was 13.446 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 299 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - The total import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the total import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 27.4 million tons, up 2.25 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.24% (17.23% previously), down 0.6%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.23% (17.21% previously), down 0.6% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 16.38%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal was 13.06%, up 0.24% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 18.03%, up 2.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil was 14.77%, up 1.07% [2]. Industry News - On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.8%, hitting a six - week high, due to a new trade agreement between Canada and China including a reduction in rapeseed tariffs [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report showed that the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season was 4.262 billion bushels, higher than last month's forecast and market expectations. The USDA also raised Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts, which was bearish for the market [2]. - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest on record, which was positive for U.S. soybeans [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Affected by the bearish USDA report and the rising expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal continued to decline and maintained a weak oscillation [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also in a weak oscillation recently. Although the current de - stocking mode supports the price and the basis remains high, the increasing long - term supply pressure due to the arrival of Australian rapeseeds and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations needs attention [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 8828 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2283 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 14 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was - 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: Main contract positions of rapeseed oil were 258828 lots, up 12208 lots; main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 869905 lots, down 1046 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 20583 lots, up 650 lots; for rapeseed meal were - 201431 lots, down 19790 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 2142 sheets, down 80 sheets; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Averages and spreads: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9706.25 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7540.97 yuan/ton, down 45.57 yuan. The oil - meal ratio was 3.95, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 772 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 67 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; rapeseed production annual forecast was 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机 rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机 rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit was 365 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 25.15 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 15.7 million tons, down 1 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 0.18 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue for the month were 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%; the at - the - money put option implied volatility of rapeseed meal was 22.73%, down 0.45%. The at - the - money call option implied volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.15% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.67%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 12.82%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.08%, down 0.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.1%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - On January 14th, ICE rapeseed futures declined, in line with the trend of Chicago soybean oil. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract fell 4.50 Canadian dollars, settling at 628.30 Canadian dollars per ton. The rapeseed trade is closely watching the news related to Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish for soybeans, dragging down rapeseed meal. Domestically, the supply of near - month Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed increases marginal supply. The market expects an improvement in China - Canada trade relations, increasing long - term supply pressure. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal, maintaining a weak oscillation [2]. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The USDA supply - demand report shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern for global and Canadian rapeseed, which restricts the market price. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China raises the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which may support the Canadian rapeseed market. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting the price, but the long - term supply pressure increases [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with overall fluctuations following soybean meal. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are in a shutdown state, leading to a tight supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. The current shutdown of oil mills and the tightened import soybean clearance policy affect near - month supply. But the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The price of rapeseed oil declined today due to the drop in palm oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9044 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2361 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 604 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.6 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) was 5332 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 35 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 46 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 204,941 lots, up 5,503 lots; rapeseed meal was 644,700 lots, up 13,230 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 18,486 lots, up 5,499 lots; rapeseed meal was - 45,495 lots, down 5,351 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3,297 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal was 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,148.75 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: Imported rapeseed was 7,358.73 yuan/ton, down 15.41 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed oil - palm oil was 1,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 86 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal main contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Rapeseed import volume was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; imported rapeseed crushing profit was 608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal were 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory was 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 17 million tons, down 0.91 million tons [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.9 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.74 million tons, up 0.26 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; edible vegetable oil production was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.44%, down 0.71%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 18.44%, down 0.72% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.98%, 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.68%, up 0.48% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.41%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.42% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.15%, unchanged; 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, down 0.06% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 31, 2025 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell, ending a volatile year with prices slightly lower than at the beginning of the year. The March rapeseed contract fell 6.40 Canadian dollars, settling at 602.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, there is a stage of abundant supply, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means the US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, keeping US soybeans in a weak adjustment [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]. - Pay attention to the possibility of opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed and the impact of palm oil price fluctuations on rapeseed oil prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, marginal supply increases. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price has been fluctuating recently. The market is watching China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a de - stocking mode, which supports the price. But with Australian rapeseed arriving for crushing and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, long - term supply pressure increases. The abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil at a basic level. Recently, the rapeseed oil price has been fluctuating at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 8981 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2352 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton (up 9.7 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5580 yuan/ton (up 101 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 39 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 53 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil had 197,238 lots (down 3 lots), rapeseed meal had 638,009 lots (up 7359 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 29,431 lots (down 3354 lots), rapeseed meal was - 39,444 lots (up 12,096 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3786 sheets (down 80 sheets), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2430 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8340 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8490 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 9678.75 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan) [2]. - Import cost: Imported rapeseed was 7519.9 yuan/ton (up 28.92 yuan) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 580 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was 78 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (up 170 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 1090 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), annual forecast for rapeseed was 13,446 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly imports were 0.2 million tons (up 0.2 million tons) [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 489 yuan/ton (down 43 yuan) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.1 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 0% (unchanged) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Imports: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons (down 2 million tons), rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons (up 6.29 million tons) [2]. - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 0.5 million tons (down 0.15 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal was 0 million tons (down 0.02 million tons), East China rapeseed oil was 29.8 million tons (down 2.4 million tons), East China rapeseed meal was 17.91 million tons (down 0.7 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil was 0.4 million tons (down 0.15 million tons), South China rapeseed meal was 24 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. - Weekly pick - up volumes: Rapeseed oil was 0.48 million tons (down 0.42 million tons), rapeseed meal was 0 million tons (unchanged) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: Monthly output was 2977.9 million tons (up 20.9 million tons) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: Monthly output was 427.6 million tons (down 67.4 million tons) [2]. - Catering revenue: Monthly retail sales were 6057 billion yuan (up 858 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 16.44% (down 0.1%), rapeseed oil was 14.35% (down 0.15%) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 16.44% (down 0.1%), rapeseed oil was 14.32% (down 0.2%) [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal was 11.87% (down 0.01%), rapeseed oil was 16.56% (up 1.05%) [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal was 10.92% (down 0.68%), rapeseed oil was 14.8% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 24, the ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by the rising CBOT soybean oil price. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract rose 11.30 Canadian dollars to 611.50 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil is expected to have a good soybean harvest. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global market. China has bought over 8 million tons of US soybeans and is moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2]. - The AAFC raised the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending inventory for 2025/26 by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, compared with 1.597 million tons in the previous year [2]. - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 20 days, and export data improved. However, Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota has raised concerns about the implementation of the B50 plan [2].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on December 24, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industry, downstream, option markets, and industry news [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Rapeseed oil is 8,980 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan; Rapeseed meal is 2,344 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is 42 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; Rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is -56 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 196,266 lots, down 7,936 lots; Rapeseed meal is 630,650 lots, up 10,459 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is -26,077 lots, up 2,154 lots; Rapeseed meal is -51,540 lots, down 1,748 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantity: Rapeseed oil is 3,866 sheets, down 10 sheets; Rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2] Spot Market - Spot price: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9,478.75 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Import cost price of rapeseed is 7,490.98 yuan/ton, down 42.3 yuan. - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.78, up 0.03 [2] Substitute Spot Price - Spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,470 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; Annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit is 439 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 0%. - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; Import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; Coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 17.91 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24 million tons, down 0.8 million tons. - Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.48 million tons, down 0.42 million tons; Rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 0 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.45%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.44%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.88%, up 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, down 0.64%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, down 0.61%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.5%, down 0.44%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.83%, down 0.11% [2] Group 3: Industry News - On December 23 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower but remained above recent lows and the downward trend since early December. The most active March rapeseed futures contract fell 9.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 603.20 Canadian dollars per ton. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is watching China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Group 4: Market Views Rapeseed Meal - In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is still restricted, and oil mills are still shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the marginal supply increases slightly. There are also rumors that Cofco is inquiring about Canadian forward rapeseed, increasing the forward supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, bettering the supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed and constraining its market price. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed meal futures showed a slight increase in oscillation and may maintain narrow - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil declined in the first 20 days and export data improved. However, the 2026 biofuel quota released by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has raised doubts about the implementation progress of the B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, supporting its price. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports and enters the crushing process, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases and expectations rise, the forward supply pressure increases. In addition, the soybean oil supply is abundant, and its substitution advantage is good, so the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly for rigid needs. Recently, rapeseed oil has oscillated at a low level [2] Group 5: Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is tight due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, zero inventory of rapeseed, and shutdown of oil mills. However, the demand is weak as the temperature drops, reducing the demand for aquaculture, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages for soybean meal. Recently, rapeseed meal has generally maintained a volatile trend, and short - term participation or waiting is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price, but soybean oil supply is abundant and has good substitution advantages, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has shown a narrow - range volatile and slightly downward trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9770 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2423 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) is 286 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) is 20 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - The main contract holding volume of rapeseed oil is 171,603 lots, down 4,352 lots; the main contract holding volume of rapeseed meal is 289,881 lots, down 29,820 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 1,510 lots, down 1,148 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 23,062 lots, down 11,421 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,855 sheets, down 110 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 651.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.6 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5405 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,228.75 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7,976.95 yuan/ton, up 16.48 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4, up 0.03 [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 353 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 3 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1540 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 664 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 1.02 million tons, down 0.23 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0.01 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 35.5 million tons, down 0.95 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.66 million tons, down 0.3 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.92 million tons, down 0.23 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23 million tons, up 0.7 million tons [2]. - The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 0.86 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.276 million tons, down 0.674 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.9%, down 0.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.9%, down 0.34% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.6%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.32%, up 0.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.32%, up 0.49% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.96%, down 0.83%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.56%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 28 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, but rose more than 9 Canadian dollars this week. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 90 cents, settling at 650.70 Canadian dollars per ton. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 30 cents, settling at 664.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US soybeans have entered the export season with a temporary abundant supply. In the global export market, the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. However, the domestic crushing consumption of US soybeans is good, and China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30, which supports the price of US soybeans. The market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and US soybeans have recently maintained a wide - range volatile trend at a high level [2]. - The US government is considering postponing a plan to cut incentives for biofuel imports by 1 - 2 years. In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined, and the inventory accumulation pressure still exists. Recently, Southeast Asia has suffered from floods, increasing the expectation of seasonal production cuts in palm oil and boosting the low - level rebound of Malaysian palm oil [2]. 3.8 Key Focus - The rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply - side pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal price maintains a volatile trend, and short - term observation is recommended. [2] - The rapeseed oil market has support from the supply - side as the oil mills are basically shut down and the inventory is decreasing. But the demand is mainly rigid due to the abundant supply of soybean oil. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has declined slightly due to the weakness of palm oil, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9778 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2446 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed is 641.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.6 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan. [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 356 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 61 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 235090 lots, down 8834 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 360472 lots, up 4288 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 1412 lots, down 3130 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 7699 lots, up 2888 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3976, down 57; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7845.7 yuan/ton, down 113.9 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.05, down 0.02. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 11.53 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, down 2 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 1.25 tons, down 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 36.45 tons, down 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 1.15 tons, down 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 tons, down 171.7 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 tons, down 67.4 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.06%, up 0.36%; that of at - the - money put options is 20.06%, up 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.88%, up 1.47%; that of at - the - money put options is 14.93%, up 1.52%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.52%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.87%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.76%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On November 21 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of US soybean oil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil futures. [2] - The US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant supply in the short - term. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, but the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and China's purchase of over 1.5 million tons of US soybeans last week supports the US soybean price. [2] - The Canada - China trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term. The Canadian rapeseed export has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan to promote rapeseed export provide support. [2] - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports in November bring inventory pressure to the international oil market. [2]