良好，使得菜油需求维持刚需为主。盘面来看，受棕榈油走弱拖累，近日菜油期价略有回落，短期波动加大，短线参与为主。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9778 | -38 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2446 | 15 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-17 格形成支撑。不过，豆油供应充裕，且替代优势良好，使得菜油需求维持刚需为主。盘面来看，近来菜油期价低位反弹走强，短期 波动加大，短线参与为主。 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | -43 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9880 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply of Canadian rapeseed imports in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases as the temperature drops and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The overall trend of rapeseed meal is weak, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also affected by multiple factors. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is in place, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil, and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9748 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5344 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 383 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 7501 lots, down 415 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 108969 lots, down 334 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540 sheets, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4050 sheets, down 210 sheets [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10117.5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7529.12 yuan/ton, down 10.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 239 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 million tons, down 2 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 2.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 5.2 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 49.9 million tons, down 1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.1 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.63 million tons, up 1.41 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.97 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6期权市场 - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.43%, down 0.48 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 19.43%, down 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 13.1%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 23.23%, down 1.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 25.01%, up 0.02 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.58%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.72%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on October 24 due to the decline in other vegetable oil prices but still recorded a weekly gain. The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 632.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather conditions, and the expected high yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from the 25th to the 26th supported the US soybean market price [2]. 3.8重点关注 - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventory in each region announced by myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and China - US trade relations [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is affected by multiple factors including trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and international market trends. For rapeseed meal, it is expected to remain weakly volatile, and for rapeseed oil, it will continue the de - stocking mode, but short - term observation is needed [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2364 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 633 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.4 Canadian dollars, and that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5255 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 441 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 287,961 lots, down 8681 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 354,755 lots, down 7176 lots. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions of rapeseed oil was 15,423 lots, up 445 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 84,324 lots, up 2250 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil was 7590 sheets, unchanged; that for rapeseed meal was 8699 sheets, down 390 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,263.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 7541.12 yuan/ton, up 42.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 235 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 86 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 5 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 6 million tons, down 1.67 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, down 1.53 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 50.9 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 27.9 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.8 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 22.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.22 million tons, down 2.96 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.09 million tons, down 1.32 million tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2927.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in the catering industry was 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.57%, up 0.32%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.56%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.23%, up 0.01%; that of at - the - money put options was 14.23%, up 0.01% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 23.6%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 25.05%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.39%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.91%, up 0.02% [2]. 7. Industry News - On October 15th, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by technical buying and the strong trend of the US soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 4.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 620.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January futures rose 4.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 634.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - In the US, the harvest in the Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts the market price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2]. 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Internationally, the US soybean export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. The high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, which puts pressure on its price. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal is expected to remain weakly volatile [2]. 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Internationally, Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 next year is positive for the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has increased for seven consecutive months. Domestically, the initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is out, and the import of rapeseed is expected to be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil. The short - term trend needs to be observed [2]. 10. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from myagricultural.com on Mondays, as well as the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9959 | -63 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2348 | -44 | | | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 495 | 57 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 57 | -20 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 299838 | -3774 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 370714 | 6791 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 12769 | -2747 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -84037 | -15155 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 7590 | -557 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9089 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 623.4 | -8.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 511 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The rapeseed meal is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, while the rapeseed oil is expected to continue the destocking mode, and their future trends depend on Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,022 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2,392 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 623.4 CAD/ton (down 8.3 CAD), and domestic rapeseed was 5,397 yuan/ton (up 129 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 438 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan), and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 77 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 303,612 lots (down 10,376 lots), and rapeseed meal was 363,923 lots (down 7,785 lots) [2] - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil was 15,516 lots (down 438 lots), and rapeseed meal was - 68,882 lots (down 5,622 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil was 8,147 sheets (up 90 sheets), and rapeseed meal was 9,089 sheets (down 110 sheets) [2] 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,150 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,243.75 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 7,439.98 yuan/ton (up 20.67 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 128 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal main contract basis was 68 yuan/ton [2] - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,930 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2] - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1,610 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 890 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and soybean - rapeseed meal was 470 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed imports were 24.66 million tons (up 7.06 million tons), and the import rapeseed disc crushing profit was 972 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan) [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 5 million tons (unchanged), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73% (down 1.6%) [2] 4. Industry Situation - Imports: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons (up 1 million tons), and rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons (down 8.72 million tons) [2] - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 6 million tons (down 1.67 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal was 1.15 million tons (down 1.53 million tons), East China rapeseed oil was 50.9 million tons (unchanged), East China rapeseed meal was 28.59 million tons (down 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil was 2.8 million tons (down 0.75 million tons), and South China rapeseed meal was 21.1 million tons (down 0.3 million tons) [2] - Weekly pick - up volumes: Rapeseed oil was 3.18 million tons (up 1.63 million tons), and rapeseed meal was 2.41 million tons (down 0.38 million tons) [2] 5. Downstream Situation - Feed production was 2,927.2 million tons (up 99.9 million tons), and edible vegetable oil production was 450.6 million tons (up 30 million tons) [2] - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan (down 8.4 billion yuan) [2] 6. Options Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 19.62% (down 1.16%), and rapeseed oil was 13.43% (down 1.04%) [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 19.62% (down 1.16%), and rapeseed oil was 13.45% (down 1.02%) [2] - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal was 23.55% (up 0.73%), and rapeseed oil was 17.23% (up 1.7%) [2] - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal was 24.81% (up 0.31%), and rapeseed oil was 14.85% (up 0.52%) [2] 7. Industry News - ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed down, with the benchmark contract down 1.4%, following the external market [2] - US Midwest soybean harvest was advancing, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans continued to restrain prices. US soybean exports faced pressure as China had not ordered current - year US soybeans [2] - Canadian rapeseed production was estimated at 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest was underway, putting pressure on prices [2] - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy advanced, benefiting the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% to 2.36 million tons at the end of September [2] 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Supply - side pressure was small due to restricted imports, but demand was weakening as aquaculture demand declined with the temperature drop, and soybean meal substitution was strong [2] - The market was cautious due to the lack of US government data, and the rapeseed meal was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2] 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed was expected to tighten imports in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil would continue to destock, supporting prices [2] - However, soybean oil supply was abundant, and rapeseed oil demand was mainly for essential use. Affected by the weakening of external oils, rapeseed oil closed down in a volatile manner [2] 10. Key Points to Watch - The weekly rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories from Myagric, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals in China are low, reducing supply pressure, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations lack substantial progress, weakening long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. With frequent trade policy news, market trading is cautious, and volatility increases, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, this year's festival stocking is lower than previous years, and overall consumption support is limited. The domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still relatively loose, constraining short - term prices. But for rapeseed oil itself, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases result in low supply - side pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The price is supported before there is substantial progress in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, but volatility increases due to frequent policy changes in Argentina [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 10,093 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2,416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 614.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.3 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5,285 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 503 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 147 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 84 yuan/ton [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 331,056 lots, down 23,209 lots; the main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 359,652 lots, down 11,448 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 29,336 lots, down 7,113 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 58,070 lots, up 4,493 lots. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts are 8,057 sheets; the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are 9,245 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,240 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10,305 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,541.24 yuan/ton, down 3.59 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,390 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: The rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference is 1,780 yuan/ton; the rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference is 1,010 yuan/ton; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast in a certain area is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Imports and processing: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 5.33%, down 7.73 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 6.85 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month feed production is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; the current - month edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.33%, up 1.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.32%, up 1.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, up 0.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.83%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.5%, up 0.24 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.12%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.31%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 26, ICE rapeseed futures reversed mid - week gains. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 614.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the January rapeseed futures fell 5.00 Canadian dollars, or 0.8%, to settle at 627.7 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - U.S. soybeans are in the harvest season, and the expected high yield continues to constrain soybean prices. China has not ordered any U.S. soybeans for the current year, and U.S. soybean export pressure remains. Argentina has re - imposed export tariffs, normalizing international market competition. The market focuses on the USDA quarterly inventory report [2]. - The Canadian rapeseed crop yield is estimated at 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is ongoing, which will put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices [2]. - Driven by bilateral trade agreements and the EU's second postponement of the zero - deforestation law, Indonesian palm oil exports are boosted [2].

Report Overview - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on September 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,921 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; Rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 617.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.1 Canadian dollars; Rapeseed (active contract) was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 484 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; Rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 76 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 306,205 lots, down 21,837 lots; Rapeseed meal was 398,111 lots, down 2,822 lots [2] - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil was 17,791 lots, down 5,331 lots; Rapeseed meal was - 73,204 lots, down 32,651 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 8,057 pieces, down 125 pieces; Rapeseed meal was 9,245 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,035 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Imported rapeseed cost price was 7,704.6 yuan/ton, up 65.5 yuan [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.06; Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 49 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Rapeseed meal main contract basis was 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1,620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 950 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 450 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.58 million tons (monthly, in millions of tons), up 0.04 million tons; Annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly import volume was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 947 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: Total weekly inventory was 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of related products: Monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; Monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Inventory in coastal areas: Rapeseed oil was 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - Inventory in different regions: In East China, rapeseed oil was 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; In Guangxi, rapeseed oil was 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; In South China, rapeseed meal was 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: Monthly feed production was 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; Monthly edible vegetable oil production was 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] - Consumption: Monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal call option was 18.89%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed meal put option was 18.88%, up 0.07%; Rapeseed oil call option was 14.24%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed oil put option was 14.24%, up 0.11% [2] - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 24.01%, up 0.41%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 2. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE rapeseed futures rose, ending the recent continuous decline. The November contract closed up 7.20 Canadian dollars at 617.60 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract rose 7.80 Canadian dollars to 631.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - U.S. soybeans entered the harvest season, and the expected high yield continued to restrain the U.S. soybean market price. The call between Chinese and U.S. leaders failed to break the deadlock in Sino - U.S. soybean trade, and the export demand of U.S. soybeans remained highly uncertain. Argentina announced the cancellation of agricultural product export tariffs, which may further intensify international market competition [2] 3. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - International factors: Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest season, and the high - yield is gradually realized. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates the rapeseed crop output at 2 million tons, the highest level since 2018, which puts pressure on the price of Canadian rapeseed. The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: The arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, reducing the supply pressure. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken the long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation of rapeseed meal. Frequent trade policy news makes the market trading cautious. In the face of Argentina's tax - free impact, rapeseed meal follows soybean meal to weaken, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 4. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - International factors: The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: This year's festival stockpiling is lower than in previous years, and the overall consumption support is limited. The supply and demand of domestic vegetable oil are still relatively loose, which continues to restrain the short - term market price. However, for rapeseed oil itself, the operating rate of oil mills remains low, the output pressure of rapeseed oil is small. The purchase of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, and the supply - side pressure is low. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, which still restricts purchases. It is expected that the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter will continue to be tight. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil will generally be supported [2] 5. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate reported by Myagric on Monday and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Sino - U.S. trade relations [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and aquaculture season boosts demand. However, soybean meal substitution and potential increase in domestic soybean imports suppress the market. Recently, rapeseed meal has been weakly adjusting, and short - term participation is recommended, focusing on the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - For rapeseed oil, terminal consumption is weakly boosted by the start of school, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is loose. But low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases. Affected by the decline of soybean and palm oil, rapeseed oil has been weakly adjusting, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 9984 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2470 yuan/ton, ICE rapeseed is 626.7 Canadian dollars/ton (down 13.8 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5299 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan). - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 489 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 113 yuan/ton. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 326231 lots (down 10512 lots), and rapeseed meal is 385353 lots (down 13964 lots). - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil is 17846 lots (down 5040 lots), and rapeseed meal is - 34577 lots (up 7103 lots). - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil is 8202 sheets, and rapeseed meal is 9504 sheets (down 600 sheets) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2570 yuan/ton, rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, and the average price of rapeseed oil is 10125 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The import cost of rapeseed is 7838.36 yuan/ton (down 158.53 yuan). - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 76 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan), and rapeseed meal main contract basis is 100 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). - Substitute prices: The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8530 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2950 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The oil - meal ratio is 3.84 (down 0.02) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and domestic rapeseed annual forecast production is 12378 thousand tons. - Rapeseed imports are 17.6 tons (down 0.85 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 754 yuan/ton (down 112 yuan). - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79% (down 0.27%). - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal imports are 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons (down 1.05 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons (down 0.05 tons). - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 52.12 tons (down 1.08 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 30 tons (down 1.51 tons). - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.1 tons (down 0.45 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 tons (down 1.3 tons). - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 4.33 tons (up 1.3 tons), and rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.57 tons (up 0.83 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2827.3 tons (down 110.4 tons), and the monthly catering revenue is 4495.7 billion yuan (down 8.4 billion yuan). - Edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.92% (up 0.35%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.9% (up 0.34%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.18% (up 1.23%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.34% (up 0.14%). - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.56% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.55% (down 0.7%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 10.36% (up 2.45%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.88% (up 0.14%) [2]. Industry News - The US EPA proposes to re - allocate the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the SRE program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% allocation. - On Wednesday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.98% due to negative production data from Statistics Canada and a weak external market. - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels per acre, slightly lower than last month's estimate but higher than analysts' expectations. The production estimate is raised to 4.301 billion bushels, and the ending inventory estimate is raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels. - Statistics Canada reports that the Canadian rapeseed crop production estimate is 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is underway [2].