| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 9044 | -43 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2361 | -4 | | 期货市场 | | 35 | -24 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -46 | 6 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 204941 | 5503 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 644700 | 13230 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -18486 | 5499 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -45495 | -5351 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3297 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 604 | 1.6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5332 | -122 | | ...

和预期升温，增强远期供应压力。另外，豆油供应充裕，替代优势良好，使得菜油需求维持刚需为主。盘面来看，近日菜油低位震 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 8981 | 1 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2352 | 8 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 39 197238 | -3 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) 972 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | -53 638009 | 3 7359 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | -29431 | -3354 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -39444 | 12096 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3786 | -80 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 612.4 | 9 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on December 24, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industry, downstream, option markets, and industry news [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Rapeseed oil is 8,980 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan; Rapeseed meal is 2,344 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is 42 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; Rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is -56 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 196,266 lots, down 7,936 lots; Rapeseed meal is 630,650 lots, up 10,459 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is -26,077 lots, up 2,154 lots; Rapeseed meal is -51,540 lots, down 1,748 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantity: Rapeseed oil is 3,866 sheets, down 10 sheets; Rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2] Spot Market - Spot price: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9,478.75 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Import cost price of rapeseed is 7,490.98 yuan/ton, down 42.3 yuan. - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.78, up 0.03 [2] Substitute Spot Price - Spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,470 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; Annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit is 439 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 0%. - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; Import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; Coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 17.91 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24 million tons, down 0.8 million tons. - Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.48 million tons, down 0.42 million tons; Rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 0 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.45%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.44%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.88%, up 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, down 0.64%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, down 0.61%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.5%, down 0.44%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.83%, down 0.11% [2] Group 3: Industry News - On December 23 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower but remained above recent lows and the downward trend since early December. The most active March rapeseed futures contract fell 9.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 603.20 Canadian dollars per ton. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is watching China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Group 4: Market Views Rapeseed Meal - In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is still restricted, and oil mills are still shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the marginal supply increases slightly. There are also rumors that Cofco is inquiring about Canadian forward rapeseed, increasing the forward supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, bettering the supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed and constraining its market price. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed meal futures showed a slight increase in oscillation and may maintain narrow - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil declined in the first 20 days and export data improved. However, the 2026 biofuel quota released by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has raised doubts about the implementation progress of the B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, supporting its price. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports and enters the crushing process, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases and expectations rise, the forward supply pressure increases. In addition, the soybean oil supply is abundant, and its substitution advantage is good, so the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly for rigid needs. Recently, rapeseed oil has oscillated at a low level [2] Group 5: Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9770 | 13 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2423 | -29 | | | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 286 | 30 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 20 | -17 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 171603 | -4352 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply - side pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal price maintains a volatile trend, and short - term observation is recommended. [2] - The rapeseed oil market has support from the supply - side as the oil mills are basically shut down and the inventory is decreasing. But the demand is mainly rigid due to the abundant supply of soybean oil. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has declined slightly due to the weakness of palm oil, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9778 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2446 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed is 641.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.6 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan. [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 356 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 61 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 235090 lots, down 8834 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 360472 lots, up 4288 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 1412 lots, down 3130 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 7699 lots, up 2888 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3976, down 57; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7845.7 yuan/ton, down 113.9 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.05, down 0.02. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 11.53 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, down 2 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 1.25 tons, down 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 36.45 tons, down 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 1.15 tons, down 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 tons, down 171.7 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 tons, down 67.4 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.06%, up 0.36%; that of at - the - money put options is 20.06%, up 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.88%, up 1.47%; that of at - the - money put options is 14.93%, up 1.52%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.52%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.87%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.76%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On November 21 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of US soybean oil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil futures. [2] - The US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant supply in the short - term. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, but the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and China's purchase of over 1.5 million tons of US soybeans last week supports the US soybean price. [2] - The Canada - China trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term. The Canadian rapeseed export has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan to promote rapeseed export provide support. [2] - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports in November bring inventory pressure to the international oil market. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is under less pressure as near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and coastal oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down. However, demand is weakening due to reduced aquaculture demand with temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybeans and soybean meal. The fall in US soybeans has dragged down domestic meal prices, and today rapeseed meal saw a decline with reduced positions. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On the supply side, near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, oil mills have used up their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. But on the demand side, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have rebounded from low levels, with increased short - term volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal futures increased by 9880 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures decreased by 3.1 Canadian dollars/ton, and that of the active contract of domestic rapeseed futures increased by 80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 9 yuan/ton. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and that of the rapeseed meal main contract decreased by 39 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 3228 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 47901 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 4311 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 23476 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 0, and that of rapeseed meal was 5323, unchanged from the previous day [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the import cost price of rapeseed decreased by 26.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 4.1, an increase of 0.09 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 60 yuan/ton [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The predicted annual production of rapeseed globally was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 13.13 tons, the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2 tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 16 tons, a decrease of 5.57 tons [2]. - **Profits and Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.5 tons, the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0.5%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 0.52 tons, and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.3 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region decreased by 2.37 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.6 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.32 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region increased by 0.1 tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 decreased by 0.53 tons, and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 decreased by 0.19 tons [2]. **Industry News** - On November 14 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the weakness of Chicago bean futures after the USDA supply - demand report, but the weekly line increased. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 3.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 647.50 Canadian dollars/ton, and the weekly increase was 1.2% [2]. - The USDA lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season from 53.5 bushels in September to 53.0 bushels, and the total production was expected to be 4.253 billion bushels, lower than the September forecast. However, the unexpected reduction in US soybean exports led to selling after the report [2]. - From August 1 to November 2, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Canada's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply of Canadian rapeseed imports in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases as the temperature drops and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The overall trend of rapeseed meal is weak, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also affected by multiple factors. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is in place, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil, and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9748 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5344 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 383 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 7501 lots, down 415 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 108969 lots, down 334 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540 sheets, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4050 sheets, down 210 sheets [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10117.5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7529.12 yuan/ton, down 10.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 239 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 million tons, down 2 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 2.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 5.2 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 49.9 million tons, down 1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.1 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.63 million tons, up 1.41 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.97 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6期权市场 - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.43%, down 0.48 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 19.43%, down 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 13.1%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 23.23%, down 1.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 25.01%, up 0.02 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.58%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.72%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on October 24 due to the decline in other vegetable oil prices but still recorded a weekly gain. The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 632.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather conditions, and the expected high yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from the 25th to the 26th supported the US soybean market price [2]. 3.8重点关注 - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventory in each region announced by myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and China - US trade relations [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is affected by multiple factors including trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and international market trends. For rapeseed meal, it is expected to remain weakly volatile, and for rapeseed oil, it will continue the de - stocking mode, but short - term observation is needed [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2364 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 633 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.4 Canadian dollars, and that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5255 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 441 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 287,961 lots, down 8681 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 354,755 lots, down 7176 lots. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions of rapeseed oil was 15,423 lots, up 445 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 84,324 lots, up 2250 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil was 7590 sheets, unchanged; that for rapeseed meal was 8699 sheets, down 390 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,263.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 7541.12 yuan/ton, up 42.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 235 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 86 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 5 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 6 million tons, down 1.67 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, down 1.53 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 50.9 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 27.9 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.8 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 22.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.22 million tons, down 2.96 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.09 million tons, down 1.32 million tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2927.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in the catering industry was 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.57%, up 0.32%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.56%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.23%, up 0.01%; that of at - the - money put options was 14.23%, up 0.01% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 23.6%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 25.05%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.39%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.91%, up 0.02% [2]. 7. Industry News - On October 15th, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by technical buying and the strong trend of the US soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 4.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 620.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January futures rose 4.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 634.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - In the US, the harvest in the Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts the market price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2]. 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Internationally, the US soybean export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. The high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, which puts pressure on its price. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal is expected to remain weakly volatile [2]. 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Internationally, Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 next year is positive for the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has increased for seven consecutive months. Domestically, the initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is out, and the import of rapeseed is expected to be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil. The short - term trend needs to be observed [2]. 10. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from myagricultural.com on Mondays, as well as the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the weakening demand for aquaculture due to temperature decline, and the relatively abundant supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market should continue to focus on China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the de - stocking mode, which will support its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. The price of rapeseed oil has adjusted from its recent high, and the market should continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9959 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2348 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 495 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 57 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 299,838 lots, down 3774 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 370,714 lots, up 6791 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 12,769 lots, down 2747 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 84,037 lots, down 15,155 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7590, down 557; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 9089, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 623.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.3 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5112 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,273.75 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7413.77 yuan/ton, down 26.21 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4.09, up 0.06 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 221 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 82 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 500 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 50,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 146,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is - 16,700 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 183,100 tons, down 15,300 tons; the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 509,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 509,000 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 279,000 tons, down 6900 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 28,000 tons, down 7500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 225,000 tons, up 14,000 tons [2]. - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2200 tons, down 2960 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 10,900 tons, down 13,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons; the monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.506 million tons, up 300,000 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.3%, up 0.68%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.31%, up 0.69% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.93%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.8%, down 0.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.98%, up 0.55%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.98%, up 0.53% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.16%, down 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.84%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Monday [2]. - Due to generally favorable weather conditions, the harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues to constrain its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the pressure on US soybean exports remains. The USDA quarterly inventory report shows that as of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop soybeans in the US is 316 million bushels, 8% lower than the same period last year and lower than market expectations [2]. - The Canadian government's statistics show that the estimated output of Canadian rapeseed is 20 million tons, the highest level since 2018. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvest season, and the bumper harvest is gradually being realized, which exerts some pressure on the price of Canadian rapeseed [2]. - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is beneficial to the palm oil market. However, MPOB data shows that as of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% from the previous month to 2.36 million tons, has increased for seven consecutive months, and is close to the highest level in about two years [2].