菜籽系产业日报 2025-09-29 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10093 | -69 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2416 | 11 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 503 | -17 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 93 | 15 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 331056 | -23209 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 359652 | -11448 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 29336 | -7113 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -58070 | 4493 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 8057 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9245 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 614.5 | -4.3 期货收盘价( ...

Report Overview - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on September 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,921 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; Rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 617.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.1 Canadian dollars; Rapeseed (active contract) was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 484 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; Rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 76 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 306,205 lots, down 21,837 lots; Rapeseed meal was 398,111 lots, down 2,822 lots [2] - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil was 17,791 lots, down 5,331 lots; Rapeseed meal was - 73,204 lots, down 32,651 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 8,057 pieces, down 125 pieces; Rapeseed meal was 9,245 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,035 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Imported rapeseed cost price was 7,704.6 yuan/ton, up 65.5 yuan [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.06; Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 49 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Rapeseed meal main contract basis was 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1,620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 950 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 450 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.58 million tons (monthly, in millions of tons), up 0.04 million tons; Annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly import volume was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 947 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: Total weekly inventory was 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of related products: Monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; Monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Inventory in coastal areas: Rapeseed oil was 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - Inventory in different regions: In East China, rapeseed oil was 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; In Guangxi, rapeseed oil was 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; In South China, rapeseed meal was 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: Monthly feed production was 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; Monthly edible vegetable oil production was 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] - Consumption: Monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal call option was 18.89%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed meal put option was 18.88%, up 0.07%; Rapeseed oil call option was 14.24%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed oil put option was 14.24%, up 0.11% [2] - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 24.01%, up 0.41%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 2. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE rapeseed futures rose, ending the recent continuous decline. The November contract closed up 7.20 Canadian dollars at 617.60 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract rose 7.80 Canadian dollars to 631.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - U.S. soybeans entered the harvest season, and the expected high yield continued to restrain the U.S. soybean market price. The call between Chinese and U.S. leaders failed to break the deadlock in Sino - U.S. soybean trade, and the export demand of U.S. soybeans remained highly uncertain. Argentina announced the cancellation of agricultural product export tariffs, which may further intensify international market competition [2] 3. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - International factors: Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest season, and the high - yield is gradually realized. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates the rapeseed crop output at 2 million tons, the highest level since 2018, which puts pressure on the price of Canadian rapeseed. The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: The arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, reducing the supply pressure. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken the long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation of rapeseed meal. Frequent trade policy news makes the market trading cautious. In the face of Argentina's tax - free impact, rapeseed meal follows soybean meal to weaken, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 4. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - International factors: The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: This year's festival stockpiling is lower than in previous years, and the overall consumption support is limited. The supply and demand of domestic vegetable oil are still relatively loose, which continues to restrain the short - term market price. However, for rapeseed oil itself, the operating rate of oil mills remains low, the output pressure of rapeseed oil is small. The purchase of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, and the supply - side pressure is low. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, which still restricts purchases. It is expected that the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter will continue to be tight. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil will generally be supported [2] 5. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate reported by Myagric on Monday and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Sino - U.S. trade relations [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and aquaculture season boosts demand. However, soybean meal substitution and potential increase in domestic soybean imports suppress the market. Recently, rapeseed meal has been weakly adjusting, and short - term participation is recommended, focusing on the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - For rapeseed oil, terminal consumption is weakly boosted by the start of school, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is loose. But low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases. Affected by the decline of soybean and palm oil, rapeseed oil has been weakly adjusting, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 9984 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2470 yuan/ton, ICE rapeseed is 626.7 Canadian dollars/ton (down 13.8 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5299 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan). - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 489 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 113 yuan/ton. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 326231 lots (down 10512 lots), and rapeseed meal is 385353 lots (down 13964 lots). - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil is 17846 lots (down 5040 lots), and rapeseed meal is - 34577 lots (up 7103 lots). - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil is 8202 sheets, and rapeseed meal is 9504 sheets (down 600 sheets) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2570 yuan/ton, rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, and the average price of rapeseed oil is 10125 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The import cost of rapeseed is 7838.36 yuan/ton (down 158.53 yuan). - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 76 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan), and rapeseed meal main contract basis is 100 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). - Substitute prices: The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8530 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2950 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The oil - meal ratio is 3.84 (down 0.02) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and domestic rapeseed annual forecast production is 12378 thousand tons. - Rapeseed imports are 17.6 tons (down 0.85 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 754 yuan/ton (down 112 yuan). - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79% (down 0.27%). - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal imports are 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons (down 1.05 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons (down 0.05 tons). - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 52.12 tons (down 1.08 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 30 tons (down 1.51 tons). - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.1 tons (down 0.45 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 tons (down 1.3 tons). - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 4.33 tons (up 1.3 tons), and rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.57 tons (up 0.83 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2827.3 tons (down 110.4 tons), and the monthly catering revenue is 4495.7 billion yuan (down 8.4 billion yuan). - Edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.92% (up 0.35%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.9% (up 0.34%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.18% (up 1.23%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.34% (up 0.14%). - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.56% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.55% (down 0.7%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 10.36% (up 2.45%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.88% (up 0.14%) [2]. Industry News - The US EPA proposes to re - allocate the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the SRE program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% allocation. - On Wednesday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.98% due to negative production data from Statistics Canada and a weak external market. - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels per acre, slightly lower than last month's estimate but higher than analysts' expectations. The production estimate is raised to 4.301 billion bushels, and the ending inventory estimate is raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels. - Statistics Canada reports that the Canadian rapeseed crop production estimate is 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is underway [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA report for 2025/26 shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre is slightly lower than last month but higher than analysts' expectations, with increased production and ending stocks, which is generally bearish. In the Canadian market, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase, while exports are expected to decline. For domestic rapeseed meal, the short - term supply pressure is reduced due to less near - month arrivals, and the demand is seasonally increasing, but the substitution of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile. For domestic rapeseed oil, the overall supply and demand is loose, but the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month purchases ease the supply pressure, and the market trend is relatively strong [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 10,053 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2,518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 632.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,330 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 467 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 121 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Open interest: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 333,040 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 376,582 lots, down 17,074 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long positions of rapeseed oil are 26,789 lots, up 8,398 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal are - 14,068 lots, up 15,904 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 8,202, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 10,214, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average price and import cost: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,005 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,899.85 yuan/ton, down 50.05 yuan [2] - Basis and price spreads: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 102 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, down 0.27 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 763 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 30 tons, down 1.51 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.03 tons, up 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.74 tons, down 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4,504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.96%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.2%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 7.91%, up 0.42 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.74%, down 0.48 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower on Monday. The benchmark contract fell 1.16% due to the rapid progress of rapeseed harvesting in the prairie region and weak rapeseed exports. The decline in the external vegetable oil market also exerted downward pressure [2] - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, with increased production and ending stocks. The report is generally bearish [2] - The USDA report also shows that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 750,000 tons to 20 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 900,000 tons to 6.7 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 12 million tons, and ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.34 million tons to 2.954 million tons [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Bullish factors: Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, reducing supply pressure. The aquaculture season boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The implementation of temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply [2] - Bearish factors: The good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Minister of Agriculture is considering measures to avoid Chinese tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed is being realized [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Bullish factors: The low operating rate of oil mills eases the production pressure of rapeseed oil. Near - month rapeseed purchases are limited, reducing supply pressure. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, restricting purchases [2] - Bearish factors: The boost from the start of the school term to terminal consumption is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply and demand is still loose [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed oil market has a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic market is mainly trading the issue of long - term supply, with the overall performance showing a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset. Although there are some suppressing factors such as high oil - mill operation rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation, factors like low near - month rapeseed arrivals, increased seasonal demand in aquaculture, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the market also maintains a bullish mindset. Despite the short - term constraints of the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply, factors such as low oil - mill operation rates, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market has experienced a slight decline from its high and filled the gap, but remains volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) was 9828 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2627 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) was 645.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) was 4874 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) was 145 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) was 110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 279,566 lots, down 9038 lots; rapeseed meal main - contract positions were 436,474 lots, down 1510 lots. Rapeseed oil's top 20 futures net long positions were 7628 lots, up 4995 lots; rapeseed meal's were 5009 lots, up 2985 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 8633 sheets, down 88 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong was 2610 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average rapeseed oil price was 10,095 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 180 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: Spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8620 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9510 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 320 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 460 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 million tons, unchanged; weekly import rapeseed operation rate was 11.94%, down 4.9% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons, up 0.34 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons, up 0.52 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry for the month was 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility was 20.98%, down 1.43%; at - the - money put option implied volatility was 20.97%, down 1.45%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility was up 0.26% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal 20 - day historical volatility was 31.15%, up 0.06%; 60 - day historical volatility was 21.32%, up 0.03%. Rapeseed oil 20 - day historical volatility was 13.44%, up 0.54%; 60 - day historical volatility was 13.47%, up 0.28% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined on August 19. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 5.70 Canadian dollars to settle at 646 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 5.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 657.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which was overall bullish for the market. However, the good US soybean good - quality rate still constrained prices, and the market awaited the results of ProFarmer's inspection of US Midwest crops [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from My Agricultural Network, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall view is to maintain a bullish stance. Although the domestic oil mill operation rate is relatively high and soybean meal is in a state of inventory accumulation, which suppresses the price of the meal market, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is also recommended to participate from a bullish perspective. In the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain the market price. But the low oil mill operation rate reduces the output pressure, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply - side pressure, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active - contract closing price is 9850 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; ICE rapeseed's is 652.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and domestic rapeseed's is 4919 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread is 151 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread is 99 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Main - contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main - contract position is 288,604 lots, down 2034 lots; rapeseed meal's is 437,984 lots, up 3654 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil's is 2633 lots, down 175 lots; rapeseed meal's is 2024 lots, up 7061 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil's is 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal's is 8721 sheets, down 1100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,030 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9710 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil's average price is 10,095 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. - Import cost: The import cost of rapeseed is 8220.57 yuan/ton, down 86.21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main - contract basis is 204 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price spread is 460 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production forecasts: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; domestic rapeseed annual production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity is 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import quantity is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, up 5 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.94%, down 4.9 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.45 tons, down 0.55 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons, down 0.65 tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.2 tons, down 0.72 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons, up 0.68 tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5 tons, down 0.5 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.8 tons, up 0.8 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 is 3.76 tons, up 0.29 tons; rapeseed meal's is 3.24 tons, up 0.52 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on August 18, trading within the previous week's range. Tight supply limited the decline. The most actively traded November contract closed down 9.20 Canadian dollars at 651.70 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract closed down 9.40 Canadian dollars at 663.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which is overall bullish. However, the good condition of US soybeans restrains the market price, and the market is waiting for the results of ProFarmer's inspection of Midwest crops [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕观点**: Market expectations are affected by multiple factors. In the international market, the high good - rate of US soybeans and good weather in production areas lead to strong expectations of a good harvest, while Sino - US trade tensions limit price increases. Domestically, high oil - mill operation rates and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the meal market. There are expectations of a decline in future pig inventories and promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. For rapeseed meal itself, less rapeseed is expected to arrive in the near - term, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market has been volatile recently, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **菜油观点**: In the international market, the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports may lead to inventory build - up, while the large increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. However, the decrease in oil - mill operation rates and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce output and supply pressure. Supported by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil prices have also increased, with increased short - term volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9615 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2724 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 68 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 285 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [2]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 188,408 lots, up 6,762 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 413,741 lots, up 13,330 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is 28,488 lots, up 4,039 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is 17,129 lots, down 3,063 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,640 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9,665 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of rapeseed is 4,852.48 yuan/ton, down 2.9 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.62, down 0.02. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 58 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 84 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the domestic rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit is 210 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, down 5 million tons. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 16.52%, up 1.59 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Import Quantities**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.65 million tons, up 1.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.7 million tons, up 0.8 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 55.5 million tons, down 0.77 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.7 million tons, up 0.15 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.5 million tons, down 3.6 million tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.7 million tons, down 1.57 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 22.81%, up 0.24 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.76%, up 0.7 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 17.65%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.33%, down 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.68%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.47%, up 0.08 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Canada**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 856,096 tons, a 3% increase from the previous month and a 10.27% increase from the same period last year [2]. - **USA**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market Situation**: The overall situation of the rapeseed - related market is complex, with various factors influencing the prices of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. The market is affected by international trade, weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and related policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to high oil - mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory accumulation, expected decline in pig存栏, and policies for reducing soybean meal substitution. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand provide some support. The market is volatile and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is constrained by the off - season of consumption, high inventory in oil mills, and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply. But the reduction in oil - mill operating rates and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease the supply pressure. The market is in an overall volatile state with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil (active contract) were 9542 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) were 2678 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) were 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton (down 12.1 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed (active contract) were 5122 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil was 70 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal was 246 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 24449 lots (up 6537 lots) and for rapeseed meal were 20192 lots (up 3504 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487 (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal was 1200 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 4855.38 yuan/ton (down 69.12 yuan). The oil - meal ratio was 3.64 (up 0.05) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan), and that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 78 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan) [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8420 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8820 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons (up 4 tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (down 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.52% (up 1.59%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.65 tons (up 1.1 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 tons (up 0.8 tons); the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.5 tons (down 0.77 tons), rapeseed meal inventory was 33.41 tons (down 1.72 tons); the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.7 tons (up 0.15 tons), and the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 26.1 tons (down 0.9 tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.27 tons (up 0.36 tons), and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 3.43 tons (up 1.11 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.58% (down 2.02%), and that of put options was 22.57% (down 2.04%); for rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 13.16% (down 2.15%) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 19.06% (up 0.1%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 17.35% (up 0.08%); for rapeseed oil, the 20 - day historical volatility was 11.5% (down 0.16%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 12.39% (down 0.02%) [2]. Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Friday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.9% to a two - week low due to heavy selling by speculative funds [2]. - **Soybean Conditions**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 67% [2]. Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed oil - mill operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in each region reported by Myagric on Monday [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the United States [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly, with short - term participation recommended due to large market fluctuations recently. The rapeseed oil market has intensified short - term fluctuations, and recently it has performed weaker than soybean and palm oils [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9406 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2660 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 2.6 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5197 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 49 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 267 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 201338 lots (down 9445 lots), rapeseed meal was 468326 lots (down 15182 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was 15749 lots (up 2973 lots), rapeseed meal was 24840 lots (up 1665 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3487 sheets (unchanged), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2560 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 9610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Import cost of rapeseed: 4981.37 yuan/ton (up 20.15 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 113 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 100 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Spot prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8320 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2850 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 570 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 232 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 20 tons (up 5 tons) [2] - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 14.93% (down 0.79%) [2] Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 34 tons (up 10 tons), import volume of rapeseed meal: 28.79 tons (up 4.13 tons) [2] - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 9.55 tons (up 0.3 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory: 1.9 tons [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 56.27 tons (down 2.18 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory: 35.13 tons (down 2.91 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 5.55 tons (down 0.05 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory: 27 tons (down 1.2 tons) [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil pick - up volume: 2.91 tons (down 0.38 tons), weekly rapeseed meal pick - up volume: 2.32 tons (down 0.14 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2762.1 tons (up 98.1 tons) [2] - Retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry: 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 440.4 tons (down 87 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal: 23.87% (down 0.09%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed meal: 20 - day was 15.85% (up 0.2%), 60 - day was 16.72% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.71%), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil: 16.52% (up 0.76%) [2] - Historical volatility of rapeseed oil: 20 - day was 10.9% (unchanged), 60 - day was 12.14% (up 0.03%) [2] Industry News - On July 25 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures rose. The market was caught between bullish biofuel factors and bearish good crop conditions. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed up 5.10 Canadian dollars at 700.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, but still at a high level in the same period [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The domestic oil mill operating rate is relatively high, soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory, and the future pig inventory is expected to decline. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the aquaculture peak season increases the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to oscillate weakly [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - High - frequency data shows that from July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased while exports declined, which restricts palm oil prices. But the large increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, but the reduction in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The reduction in third - quarter rapeseed purchases eases the supply - side pressure [2] Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions announced by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the peak season of aquaculture is coming, which boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The high - operating rate of oil mills and the continuous inventory build - up of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expected decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. The short - term trading is recommended, mainly due to the decline in positions after the previous continuous rise [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined from July 1 - 20, which restricts palm oil prices. But the significant increase in Indonesian exports and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with a relatively loose supply of vegetable oil and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills, restricting market prices. However, the decrease in the operating rate of oil mills weakens the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may reduce forward pressure. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil rose synchronously, but due to the expected resumption of China - Australia trade, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil recently, with intensified short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,492 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,682 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 698.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,082 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed oil was 53 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 9 - 1 inter - monthly spread of rapeseed meal was 270 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 211,985 lots, down 8,793 lots; the open interest of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 512,685 lots, down 25,919 lots [2]. - **Net Long Positions of Top 20 Holders**: The net long positions of rapeseed oil were 12,249 lots, up 4,034 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal were 22,215 lots, down 11,788 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,570 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,860 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - **Average Price and Related Ratios**: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 4,990.05 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the oil - meal ratio was 3.5, down 0.05; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 94 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal was - 112 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 290 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Import**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the crushing profit of imported rapeseed was 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas was 9.25 million tons, down 0.04 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal areas was 1.2 million tons, down 0.31 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region was 58.45 million tons, down 0.82 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the East China region was 35.13 million tons, down 2.91 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region was 5.6 million tons, down 0.32 million tons; the inventory of rapeseed meal in the South China region was 27 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 million tons, down 0.38 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 0.14 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed was 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4,578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 25.07%, up 2.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 16.33%, up 1.44 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.55%, up 3.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 0.69 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.67%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 23, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the vegetable oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 8.10 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 698.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the analyst's expectation of 71%, the previous week's 70%, and the same as the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is currently good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].