Markets are kicking off a new week and a new month. Joining us now to discuss what to expect ahead is Robert Shine, chief investment officer at Blankie Shine Wealth Management. Robert, great to have you here with us. >> Great to be with you.>> All right, so January is in the bookshing off February here. We saw some some upside in January, but not without some choppiness. So fill us in on what your expectations are for February and the rest of the year.Is there real upside ahead. We got a great start uh for ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller expressed his dissent regarding the central bank's decision to maintain steady interest rates this week, providing his rationale for the disagreement [1] Group 1 - Waller was a finalist for the Fed's top position before President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as chair [1]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with a benchmark rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, as investors focus on Chair Jerome Powell's guidance amid resilient economic growth and easing inflation pressures [1][2] - Recent US economic data has shown positive surprises, with unemployment at 4.4% and fourth-quarter GDP growth tracking above 5.4%, complicating the case for near-term rate cuts [2][3] - The Fed faces a "tricky economic outlook," balancing strong growth and persistent inflation, while considering the potential impact of artificial intelligence on productivity and price pressures [3] Market Expectations - Markets are pricing in less than a 3% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, although there are expectations for cuts later in the year [1][4] - Analysts anticipate that the Fed will remain on hold for the remainder of Powell's term, with Deutsche Bank predicting only one rate cut in September [6][7] - Equity markets are reaching record highs based on expectations that inflation will continue to cool, despite the Fed's anticipated decision to maintain current rates [4] Policy and Political Considerations - Analysts expect Powell to address not only the economic outlook but also legal and political pressures on the central bank, including recent Justice Department subpoenas and questions about his successor [8] - The Fed is likely to adopt a cautious tone, emphasizing data dependence amid a complex economic and political backdrop [10]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has historically performed better on average when the Federal Reserve decides to hold interest rates steady rather than cutting them [1] Group 1 - The recent trend indicates a positive correlation between the Fed's decision to maintain rates and stock market performance [1]

Market Overview - The crypto market is currently characterized by tight trading ranges, resulting in minimal price movements for traders [1] - Bitcoin has recently struggled to maintain momentum after briefly surpassing $97,000, leading to bearish predictions regarding its potential to reach a new all-time high [2][3] Bitcoin Predictions - As of Thursday afternoon, predictors estimate a 19% chance for Bitcoin to surpass its previous all-time high of $126,080 by July, reflecting a nearly 10% decrease in optimism over the past week [3] - Bitcoin's price has recently fallen below $90,000, trading around $89,312 [3] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment has been negatively impacted by President Trump's indecisiveness regarding Greenland and tariffs, resulting in a significant outflow from Bitcoin ETFs amounting to $709 million [4] - Despite the bearish sentiment, some industry figures, like Ripple's president, remain optimistic about the crypto market reaching new highs by 2026 [4] Gold vs. Ethereum Predictions - A prediction market on Myriad is focused on whether gold or Ethereum will reach $5,000 first, with gold currently priced at $4,938 after a 7.28% increase this week [6] - The odds have shifted significantly, now favoring gold at 94% likelihood of reaching $5,000 first, while Ethereum would need to increase by 60% from its current price of $2,948 [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a shift as borrowers with historically low mortgage rates are beginning to refinance or sell their homes, indicating a change in market dynamics [1] - The housing market is expected to gradually recover, with various factors such as mortgage rates, Fed policy, and demographic demand influencing this momentum [2] - FINOFR has successfully reset over $1.33 billion in mortgages in the last 120 days, benefiting from recent Fed rate cuts and maintaining a high mortgage retention rate [3] - Independent Mortgage Bankers (IMBs) can enhance profitability by adopting strategies similar to larger lenders, such as retaining servicing in-house, which has shown to increase profitability by approximately 50% [4] Market Trends - The housing market is showing signs of thawing after years of elevated mortgage rates and tight inventory, with expectations for a measured recovery in 2026 [2] - Recent Fed rate cuts have led to a surge in mortgage reset activity, with FINOFR completing 1,139 transactions without additional operational strain [3] - The profitability of IMBs is closely tied to their ability to retain servicing, which creates recurring revenue and strengthens borrower relationships [4] Regulatory and Compliance - Covius Compliance Solutions has released a report detailing the regulatory landscape for the mortgage industry, highlighting evolving compliance expectations and the CFPB's modified role [5] Upcoming Events - Various industry conferences are scheduled, including the Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference and the Optimal Blue Summit, focusing on networking and education for mortgage professionals [9][11]

Group 1 - The January 2025 "State of the Industry Report" provides a comprehensive overview of the trucking, maritime, and intermodal markets, highlighting expected trends in the coming weeks [1] - The report includes detailed data on capacity, volumes, and rates, which are essential for understanding market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The truckload market has tightened significantly post-Thanksgiving, with spot rates and tender rejections increasing rapidly [2] - Reefer and dry van segments have tightened more than the previous year, while flatbed remains relatively stable with minimal volatility [2] - Rejection rates are 2-3 percentage points higher year-over-year, and spot rates have increased by nearly 9% year-over-year in aggregate [2] - Intermodal volume has seen a slight year-over-year increase in Q4, driven by strong service and favorable rate spreads compared to truckload [2] - Manufacturing is currently in contraction, as indicated by an ISM PMI of 48.2 in November, attributed to uncertainty and commodity inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve has cut rates again due to weakness in the labor market, with unemployment at 4.6% [2] - Housing market data remains limited but indicates a slow recovery, still down year-over-year [2] - The truckload market lacks economic support from demand to indicate a sustained recovery, although supply conditions are tightening [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Basic Materials Sector**: The report covers the basic materials sector in China, focusing on metals, steel, cement, paper, glass, and solar materials [1][2][3]. Metals - **Copper**: LME copper price increased by 2.0% WoW to US$11,764/t, while China's price decreased by 1.4% to RMB 92,640/t [1][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose by 1.3% WoW to US$2,872/t; however, China's price fell by 1.0% to RMB 21,820/t, leading to a margin squeeze of RMB 170/t WoW to RMB 5,915/t [1][15]. - **Gold**: COMEX gold price increased by 0.7% WoW to US$4,330/oz [1][11]. - **Lithium**: Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) averaged RMB 97,650/t, up 3.3% WoW [1][55]. - **Uranium**: U₃O₈ spot price rose by 1.8% WoW to US$77.2/lb [1][65]. - **Cobalt**: Shanghai Changjiang cobalt price increased by 1.2% WoW to RMB 417,000/t [1][63]. - **Tungsten**: Prices accelerated due to supply shortages and import uncertainties [1]. Steel - **Price Recovery**: Rebar prices rose by 1.5% WoW to RMB 3,322/t, and HRC gained 1.2% to RMB 3,312/t [2][66]. - **Consumption**: Apparent consumption decreased by 0.5% WoW to 8.4 million tons, while inventories edged down by 0.15% to 13.3 million tons [2][66]. - **Iron Ore**: Price climbed by 3.2% WoW to USD 108.4/t [2][71]. - **Margins**: Negative margins persisted, with rebar falling to -RMB 292/t and HRC to -RMB 360/t [2][76]. Cement - **Price Trends**: National average cement price pulled back by 0.3% WoW to RMB 348/t, with regional variations [3][89]. - **Shipment Ratio**: Nationwide shipment ratio dropped by 1.4 percentage points WoW to 32.8% [3][22]. - **Inventory Ratio**: Inventory ratio decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 62.3% [3][22]. Paper and Glass - **Paper Prices**: Paper prices edged down by 0.89% WoW to RMB 3,751/t, influenced by cautious market sentiment [3][99]. - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price declined by 1.2% WoW to RMB 1,151/t due to limited demand [3][98]. Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: Prices for N-type polysilicon and granular silicon remained stable at RMB 53/kg and RMB 51/kg, respectively [3][112]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for coated solar glass declined to RMB 18.5/sqm and RMB 11.5/sqm [3][121]. - **Inventory Days**: Solar glass inventory days expanded by 8.7% WoW to 35.92 [3][123]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The report indicates a shift in market sentiment from traditional off-season to anti-involution expectations, impacting pricing and consumption dynamics [2][66]. - **Utilization Rates**: Blast furnace utilization rates decreased by 0.99 percentage points WoW to 85% [2][78]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting trends and data across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.

GDP & Economic Growth - US GDP for the third quarter showed a massive upside surprise, coming in at 43% versus a prior of 38% and a survey expectation of 33% [1] - The GDP uptick was unexpected by many [2] - Aggregate demand was growing at a rapid rate [5] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The unexpectedly high GDP figure raises questions about the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 075 percentage points in September [5] - The GDP data may influence Fed officials as they consider recalibrating interest rates in January, especially given the divided opinions within the FOMC regarding the last rate cut [6][7] - The front end of the curve on the two-year saw a big spike up to 35351 in yields following the 43% GDP reading [3] Economic Data & Market Reaction - Durable goods came in much worse than expected, dropping by 22% [2] - The GDP data is considered stale due to delays caused by a government shutdown [1][3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to have the ability to cut interest rates in 2026 due to a significant pullback in November inflation [1] - The Dow and S&P 500 ended a four-day losing streak following a surprising slowdown in inflation, which traders interpreted as a positive sign for potential rate cuts next year [2] - Strong earnings from Micron, a memory-chip manufacturer, alleviated concerns regarding high valuations in the artificial intelligence sector [2] Group 2 - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were mostly flat, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose by 0.2% [1]