上海二手房市场分析及收储政策解读 20260204 摘要 上海二手房市场近期交易量突破 2 万套，日均成交量约 1,000 套，价格 较 2025 年末上涨 3%-6%，但 1 月环比微降 1%，降幅收窄，显示市场 价格有回升迹象。 300 万元以下房产为交易主力，占比超 40%，60 平方米以下小户型占 主导地位，占比约 30%。浦东新区成交量最高，徐泾、临港等新兴板块 增长显著。 上海新房供应量持续下降，2025 年较 2024 年减少 1.2 万套，1 月交易 量仅 2000 多套，受三道红线政策影响，开发商拿地积极性降低。 上海试点收储政策聚焦成熟区域老旧小区，旨在稳住房价、提高租金回 报率，盘活存量资产，并可能成为银行新的利润增长点，促进土地财政 稳定。 上海二手房挂牌量从 2025 年初的 17 万套降至年底的 13.7 万套，主要 原因是业主预期降低、老旧小区换手率低以及待售转租现象。 浦东新区已明确实施"以旧换新"政策，要求购买本区一手房，静安、 徐汇预计也将采取类似措施，由国央企及银行参与，以稳定市场价格。 学区房仍具保值潜力，可关注优质学校周边小户型。高端住宅和核心地 段物业值得关注，商住 ...

Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, highlighting significant declines in various metrics related to real estate investment and sales. Key Points Real Estate Investment (REI) Trends - **November REI** experienced a record drop of **30.3% YoY**, marking the sharpest decline on record, with a total of **RMB 0.5 trillion**, the lowest monthly figure since April 2012 [1][11] - **Completion rates** fell by **26% YoY** in November, slightly improved from **28%** in October [1] - **Starts** decreased by **28% YoY**, consistent with a **29%** decline in October [1] - **Residential sales** dropped by **28% YoY**, the largest single-month decline since May 2024 [1] - The **70-cities price index** for new homes decreased by **2.8% YoY** in November, while secondary homes saw a **5.7% YoY** decline [1] Market Dynamics - **Secondary market sales** in 18 key cities fell by **22% YoY** in November, with average weekly volume showing a **13% MoM** increase, driven by price cuts [2] - Listings in 39 cities remained stable, but cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an saw increased listings, putting pressure on prices [2] - A survey indicated only **9%** of depositors expect housing prices to rise in 2026, a historical low [2] Future Projections - The outlook for 2026 suggests a **structural decline** in the market unless liquidity improves, with expectations of: - **REI** down **13% YoY** - National sales down **11% YoY**, with residential sales projected at **RMB 6.8 trillion** [3] - New home average selling prices (ASP) expected to fall by **3% YoY** [3] - Starts anticipated to drop to levels last seen in 2003, with a **15% YoY** decline [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** indicated a more proactive policy tone, with potential demand-side easing measures expected in Q4 2025 [4] - Urban renewals and REIT approvals are likely to accelerate, but significant changes in home price expectations are not anticipated due to ample supply [4] - Monitoring for targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives is advised, though the likelihood remains low [4] Market Sentiment and Investment Recommendations - The sector's share prices corrected in early December amid debates over weak sales and expectations of policy-driven rebounds, particularly following Vanke's debt extension [5] - Anticipated earnings downgrades in December and January for well-known names in the sector [5] - Luxury mall retail sales are expected to maintain a positive trend in Q4 after outperforming in Q3 [5] - Recommended stocks include **Jinmao, C&D, and CRL** as top picks [5] Additional Insights - The **macro environment** shows mixed signals, with November exports beating expectations at **5.9% YoY**, while retail sales decelerated to **1.3% YoY** despite a higher CPI of **0.7%** [1] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) remains weak, down **12%** YoY, with a cumulative decline of **2.6%** for the first eleven months [1] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the significant challenges and potential policy responses.

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month [1] - Major banks collectively lowered deposit rates, with a 5 basis point reduction in demand deposits and a 15 to 25 basis point reduction in fixed-term deposits [1] - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to lower the cost of liabilities for commercial banks, enhancing their willingness to lend [1][2] Group 1: Impact on Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with new residential sales area declining by 2.8% year-on-year from January to April 2025, but the decline rate has narrowed [1][2] - The decrease in LPR is anticipated to lower financing costs for both enterprises and residents, which is crucial for stimulating investment and consumption [1][3] - The current policy environment is expected to support the real estate market, with core cities showing positive performance [2][4] Group 2: Future Policy Directions - The central bank's recent actions, including a reduction in public housing loan rates, are expected to create more room for lowering commercial mortgage rates [3] - The government has shown strong confidence and determination to stabilize the real estate market, with a variety of supportive policies anticipated to be implemented [4][5] - Comprehensive policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption are expected to strengthen the fundamentals of the real estate market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "May Day" holiday is a crucial marketing period for real estate companies, with various promotional activities and government policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market in Henan province [1][5][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Multiple cities in Henan have introduced new policies to support the housing market, including increased housing provident fund support and housing trade-in programs [1] - The sales volume of new and second-hand homes in Henan province saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.2% in Q1, with second-hand homes experiencing a year-on-year growth of 12.62% [7] - The "May Day" holiday is expected to significantly boost consumer purchasing intentions due to the extended time available for home selection and various promotional activities [5][7] Group 2: Promotional Activities - Real estate companies are launching diverse promotional campaigns during the "May Day" holiday, including discounts, giveaways of home appliances, and special pricing for select properties [3][5] - Events such as interactive shows with animals and creative workshops are being organized to enhance customer engagement and attract potential buyers [3] - Developers are offering one-stop services for home selection, purchasing, and mortgage loans to meet consumer housing needs [5] Group 3: Industry Insights - The "May Day" holiday is considered a key marketing opportunity for real estate developers, influencing their annual performance and marketing strategies for the second half of the year [5] - The combination of favorable government policies and active market adjustments has contributed to a stabilization in the real estate market, fostering a positive economic outlook [7]