Core Viewpoint - Ed Yardeni predicts that the "Roaring 2020s" stock market rally will continue through 2026, but he warns that aggressive fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration poses significant risks to the economic outlook [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Predictions - Yardeni highlights a potential conflict between government spending and the bond market, noting that massive taxpayer refunds could lead to increased liquidity that may upset "bond vigilantes" [2]. - He forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 by 2026, representing a 10% increase from current levels, driven by an AI-driven productivity boom that will enhance corporate earnings [3][4]. Group 2: Socioeconomic Divide - Yardeni describes a "Chick-fil-A Economy," where Baby Boomers are financially secure and spending freely, while younger generations face challenges such as housing affordability [5]. - He believes that Trump's policies are aimed at addressing the dissatisfaction among the "have-nots," although this may lead to volatility in the bond market [6]. Group 3: Market Performance - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has increased by 17.67%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones have gained 21.75% and 14.32%, respectively [7]. - Despite these gains, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) closed lower recently, with SPY down 0.36% and QQQ down 0.48% [7].

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, with a projected increase of about 10% to reach 7,700 [2] - The growth industries, particularly consumer discretionary, are currently at high levels in terms of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating potential opportunities outside of these sectors [15] Demographic Trends - The retirement of baby boomers is leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of the labor force, creating a shortage of skilled workers and increasing pressure on companies to enhance productivity [4][3] - Baby boomers are experiencing significant wealth accumulation, owning substantial assets such as stocks and real estate, which contributes to their spending power [6][10] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate is reported at 4.3%, indicating strong economic performance, yet disposable personal income remains stagnant at 0% [12] - The relationship between productivity and real wages is emphasized, suggesting that real wages must increase to sustain economic growth [13][14] Technology and AI Impact - The emergence of AI technologies is expected to drive productivity improvements across various sectors, with many companies exploring efficiency gains beyond just AI [17] - The "impressive 493" refers to companies that are likely to benefit significantly from technological advancements, particularly in productivity [16] Gold and Bond Market Projections - The gold price target for 2026 has been raised to 6,000, with a long-term outlook of 10,000 by the end of the decade [19][20] - Bond yields are anticipated to range between 4.25% to 4.75% in 2026, with the potential for lower returns on diversified portfolios [21]

Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing a strong recovery, with all-time record highs for real GDP and real consumer spending per household [2] - There is an expectation of a 10% increase in economic performance next year, although the first half may face challenges similar to the beginning of this year [4] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The monetary policy is set to purchase $40 billion per month in Treasury bills through April next year, while substantial fiscal refunds are anticipated due to retroactive tax cuts [5] - The combination of stimulative fiscal and monetary policies is expected to lead to large deficit numbers, which may unsettle the bond market [6] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has not aligned with the Federal Reserve's actions, as bond yields remain above 4% despite a 175 basis point rate cut since 2024 [7] - Normal interest rates are suggested to be between 4% and 5%, reflecting pre-financial crisis levels, with productivity-led growth supporting this outlook [8][11] Inflation and Asset Prices - Structural issues in the labor market may limit the effectiveness of the Fed's easing measures, but asset inflation, particularly in precious metals, is expected to continue [9] - The current economic environment does not necessitate lower interest rates, as normal rates are deemed sufficient for sustaining growth and controlling inflation [11]

The roaring 20s are alive and well. That according to our next guest, Ed Yard Denny. He's the president of Yard Denny Research.He joins us now. It's good to see you. So, we were just a little delayed on the roaring 20s, maybe thanks to co and here we are about to regroup.>> Well, I think we've been doing pretty well since uh since the beginning of the of the decade. I mean, think of all the uh shocks that the economy has been hit by the pandemic, the lockdowns for two months. Uh then the social distancing, ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's long-term investment thesis is transitioning from speculation to being recognized as a store of value, with projections suggesting it could reach $1.4 million by 2035 [1][4]. Store-Of-Value Model Drives $1.4 Million Target - Analysts from CF Benchmarks propose that Bitcoin will gradually assume part of gold's role as a store of value, supported by a framework that includes comparative valuation, production costs, and sensitivity to monetary liquidity [2]. - The current market for store-of-value assets is approximately $30 trillion, with gold being the predominant asset [2]. Market Capitalization Scenarios - Analysts modeled scenarios where Bitcoin captures between 17% and 33% of gold's market capitalization by 2035 [3]. Price Target and Returns - A probability-weighted analysis yields a base-case price target for Bitcoin of around $1.42 million, indicating potential annualized returns of about 30% [4]. Production Costs and Price Support - The report emphasizes rising production costs as a factor supporting Bitcoin's price over time, treating it similarly to a commodity like gold [6]. - Current estimates suggest it costs between $40,000 and $50,000 to mine one Bitcoin, with production becoming increasingly challenging due to halving events and rising mining difficulty [6]. Liquidity and Volatility Trends - Bitcoin's price is closely correlated with the global M2 money supply, which influences investment availability; typically, Bitcoin's price rises following increases in M2 [8]. - The report notes a trend of decreasing price volatility, with expectations that it will fall to around 28% by 2035, down from previous triple-digit levels [11]. Institutional Participation - Increased liquidity and institutional involvement are contributing to the reduction in volatility, with even small allocations to Bitcoin potentially enhancing portfolio returns [12]. Broader Industry Perspectives - Other industry leaders, including Coinbase's CEO and BitMEX co-founder, have echoed similar bullish projections for Bitcoin, with targets reaching $1 million by 2030 [13][14]. - The macroeconomic environment is seen as favorable for Bitcoin, with expanding liquidity and rising institutional comfort with digital assets [16]. Current Market Context - Bitcoin is currently approximately 30% below its all-time high of nearly $126,000, indicating a significant gap between long-term projections and the current market situation [17].

Economic Outlook - Ed Yardeni believes the 2020s could mirror the Roaring 1920s, driven by strong economic forces [1][3] - The U.S. economy and stock market have successfully passed extreme "stress tests," emerging stronger than before [2] Productivity and Technology - A productivity boom, similar to the technological advancements of the 1920s, is central to Yardeni's optimism, with digital and AI investments enhancing output and profit margins [3][4] - Technology now constitutes over 50% of capital spending, as companies invest to remain competitive [7] Consumer Wealth - Retiring baby boomers are entering retirement with an estimated $80 trillion in net worth, significantly impacting consumption patterns [5] - Despite uneven wealth distribution, consumer spending continues to rise, contributing to economic resilience [6] Market Projections - Yardeni projects the S&P 500 could reach 10,000 points by the end of the decade, supported by strong corporate earnings and economic resilience [9] - The current interest rate environment is viewed as more normal compared to the ultra-low rates of the past decade, challenging the notion that rising rates will hinder growth [7][8] Investment Strategy - The best investment advice according to Yardeni is to "stay long," emphasizing the importance of long-term investing over trading [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The "Roaring 2020s" is expected to continue, with the S&P 500 projected to reach 7,700 by the end of next year according to strategist Ed Yardeni [1] Economic Outlook - Yardeni raises the odds of a continued "Roaring 2020s" scenario from 50% to 60% for 2026, while reducing the likelihood of extreme market scenarios (meltup or meltdown) from 30% to 20% [2] - Economic growth is anticipated to accelerate in 2026, driven by various factors including tax benefits, monetary stimulus from a Fed rate cut, and significant capital expenditures in the tech sector [4] Earnings Projections - S&P 500 companies' collective earnings per share are expected to rise from $268 this year to $310 next year, marking a 15.67% increase [3] - In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies reported a 13.4% year-over-year earnings growth [3] Sector Analysis - Yardeni has ended his 15-year Overweight recommendation for tech stocks and Communication Services sectors, indicating these sectors are already heavily weighted in the S&P 500 [5] - The combined weight of the Technology and Communication Services sectors accounts for approximately 45% of the S&P 500 [6] - The forward earnings share of these sectors has reached a record 38.6% of the S&P 500's forward earnings, but the riskiness of an S&P 500 portfolio has increased due to concentration in these sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ed Yardeni has increased the probability of a productivity-driven boom in U.S. equities from 50% to 60%, projecting a year-end 2026 S&P 500 target of 7,700, indicating a potential 13% rally for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to grow between 3% and 3.5% next year, with easing unit labor costs and inflation moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4]. - Recent fiscal and monetary measures are anticipated to take full effect next year, contributing to economic growth [5]. Demographic Factors - By 2026, Baby Boomers will be aged 62 to 80 and will hold a net worth of $85.4 trillion, with $27.4 trillion in equities and mutual funds, which will support consumption through wealth effects [7]. - Big Tech companies are projected to invest a record $500 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily focused on artificial intelligence infrastructure [7]. Earnings and Valuation Projections - S&P 500 earnings per share are projected to rise from $268 in 2023 to $310 in 2026, with a further increase to $350 in 2027 [8]. - Forward valuation multiples of 18 to 22 suggest an index range of 6,300 to 7,700, with the target set at the high end [8]. Risks to the Outlook - Potential risks include market volatility related to AI valuations, pressures from bond markets, private credit stress, consumer retrenchment, and geopolitical tensions [9][10][11].

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by over 3%, the S&P 500 surged nearly 4%, and the Nasdaq rose more than 4% during the Thanksgiving-shortened week [1][2] - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7,000 by the end of 2025, reflecting a 19% gain, following two consecutive years of over 20% surges [3] Future Projections - Analysts predict the S&P 500 could hit 7,700 in 2026, indicating a 10% increase from the 2025 forecast [3] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the S&P 500 will finish 2026 at 8,000, representing a 17% increase from the recent close [5] - JPMorgan anticipates the S&P 500 could end 2026 at 7,500, with potential to reach 8,000 if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates [5] Economic Outlook - The Roaring 2020s scenario is expected to continue, with GDP growth, consumption, and corporate profits remaining strong [4] - Analysts highlight above-trend earnings growth, an AI capital spending boom, and rising shareholder payouts as key factors supporting market performance [6]

Market Outlook - The economy has shown remarkable resilience, with no anticipated recession occurring over the past three years despite various shocks [2][3] - The overall economy is expected to continue growing through the end of the decade, referred to as the "roaring 2020s" [3] Earnings and Stock Predictions - Earnings are projected to exceed $450 per share by the end of the decade, applying a 22x multiple could lead to stock prices approaching 10,000 [4] Gold and Investment Trends - Gold is increasingly viewed as a safe, diversifying asset in investment portfolios, contrasting with Bitcoin, which is seen as a risk-on asset [5][6] - There is a global demand for gold, driven by wealth diversification and as a hedge against geopolitical risks [7][8] Geopolitical Factors - Potential positive developments in U.S.-China relations could impact market sentiment, with ongoing discussions about trade resolutions [10][11] - The outcome of Supreme Court rulings on tariffs may also influence market dynamics [12]