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国泰君安期货·黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251214
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-14 10:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have remained stable, the futures market has been weakly volatile, and port inventories have decreased [4][19] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products such as 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week, with a price difference of 10 yuan/m³ between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4] Supply - As of December 7, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 7 of which were bound for the Chinese mainland and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in December and 0 in January. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.28 million cubic meters [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.38 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.36 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.45 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.24 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventories, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.3528 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 million cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 0.4115 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0409 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 0.2247 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0494 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 0.1237 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0365 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1127 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.1428 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] Market Trend - As of December 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 749 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1.7% from last week. The futures market continued to be weakly volatile this week, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 16 yuan/m³, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 28.5 yuan/m³, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 12.5 yuan/m³ [19] Other - As of the week of December 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2294.00 points, a decrease of 433 points (-15.9%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 814 points, a decrease of 3.2% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1506.46 points, an increase of 7.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.059, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.6% to 1.722 [6][52]