Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing recovery while others face declines, particularly in exports and commodity prices [2][4][30]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight decline, standing at 5.03% as of May 18, down from 5.15% on May 11 [4][9]. - Infrastructure remains a key driver of economic activity, particularly in asphalt construction rates, which increased to an average of 30.58% from 26.95% [10]. - The cement shipment rate has rebounded to 41.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [17]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Land premium rates have significantly decreased, with a current rate of 1.37% compared to an average of 5.5% over the previous three weeks [5][14]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown a slight decline, with a growth rate of 12.4% as of May 18, down from 14.5% in April [13]. - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities remained stable at 78.88 million, consistent with last year [13]. Group 3: Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China have sharply declined, with a year-on-year drop of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April [5][23]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24 [5][23]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [21]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase [3][30]. - Prices for coal and real estate-related commodities have weakened, with Shanxi thermal coal prices down 0.5% and rebar prices down 1.3% [6][30]. - The overall commodity price index (BPI) has decreased by 0.3% domestically, while the CRB index has increased by 0.2% internationally [30][36]. Group 5: Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance has accelerated compared to last year, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan issued as of May 23, representing 38.3% of the annual target [6][37]. - The issuance of general and special government bonds has also outpaced last year's progress, with net financing rates of 39.4% and 42.1%, respectively [6][37].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing improvement while others are experiencing declines, particularly in consumer retail and trade with the US. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has weakened but remains above 5%, recorded at 5.16% as of May 11, down from 7.73% on May 4, driven mainly by infrastructure and passenger vehicle consumption [3][5][6]. - The average asphalt plant operating rate increased to 34.4% in the second week of May from 28.8% in the first week, indicating a recovery in infrastructure activity [2][14]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities has decreased to 7.9% from 9.63% in April, reflecting a cooling in the real estate market [9]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a growth rate of 11% as of May 11, down from 14.5% in April [8]. - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 10% year-on-year as of May 16, indicating weak demand in the housing market [8]. - The average daily passenger volume for subways remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [8]. Group 3: Trade and External Demand - Direct trade between China and the US has continued to decline, with container ship numbers and capacity from China to the US dropping by 34.4% year-on-year as of May 17 [20][22]. - There has been a rebound in the number of ships docking at major ASEAN ports, increasing by 0.8% week-on-week as of May 15, suggesting potential for re-export opportunities [22]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly dropped, closing at $3191.8 per ounce, a decrease of 4% [4][32]. - Domestic commodity prices have shown mixed trends, with the BPI index rising by 1.1% and the CRB index increasing by 0.3% [32][35]. Group 5: Debt and Interest Rates - New local government bond issuance plans have been disclosed, with a total of 4159 billion yuan in special bonds planned for 2025 [36]. - Interest rates have seen a slight increase, with DR001 at 1.6313% and DR007 at 1.6374%, reflecting a tightening in liquidity conditions [39].