Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance yesterday. The主力2602 contract closed at 1,871.8 points, with an increase of 5,003 lots and a gain of 8.77%. The次主力2604 contract closed at 1,166.8 points, with an increase of 1,634 lots and a gain of 3.6%. The SCFIS on December 22 rose 5.2% from the previous period, basically in line with expectations. The predicted settlement price of the 2512 contract is between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the freight rate level, inflection - point time, and price decline rate. The settlement price of the 2602 contract is the average of the SCFIS for three consecutive Wednesdays (weeks 4, 5, and 6). The 2602 contract can theoretically be anchored to the FAK average in week 5. Different scenarios for the 2602 contract are presented based on the price trend in week 3 [13][14]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, the risk of premium should be watched out for [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The spread between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,589.20 points, up 5.2% week - on - week; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $1,533/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 0.3%, and for the US West route was $1,992/FEU, up 11.9% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's 40'GP is $2,530 and 20'GP is $1,575 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.03 [1]. 2. Macro News - Maersk's Sebarok completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the early morning of December 19, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years. It is a 6,500 - TEU ship operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will discuss Iran's nuclear activities and the next phase of the Gaza plan with US President Trump during his visit next week. Israel is also trying to prevent the Houthi rebels in Yemen from blocking international shipping routes [8]. - Iranian state media reported that multiple cities in Iran held missile exercises [10]. 3. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, the weekly average capacity remains at 318,000 TEU/week, with the number of pending voyages reduced to 1. Compared with last Sunday's schedule, the capacity in weeks 1 and 3 remains unchanged. The capacity in week 2 is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to additional passive blank sailings on AEU7, and the capacity in week 4 is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU, becoming the week with the greatest supply pressure [12]. - **Demand Side**: Major shipping companies started the practice of cargo rolling in late December, especially the PA Alliance, which laid the foundation for the price increase in early January. Weekly bookings were slow in the first week of January, possibly related to ongoing long - term contract negotiations. The peak cargo volume may occur around mid - January (week 3) and then decline [13]. 4. Price Forecast - **2512 Contract**: The settlement price is expected to be between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - **2602 Contract**: - Neutral Scenario: The FAK average in week 3 is around $2,800/FEU, similar to week 2. The combined decline in weeks 4 and 5 is $300 - $400/FEU. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,720 - 1,800 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,800 - 1,900 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. - Optimistic Scenario: There is a final price increase in week 3, but the increase is less than $400/FEU. The 2602 contract will have an additional premium of 100 - 300 points on top of the neutral scenario, with a valuation between 1,900 - 2,200 points [14]. - Pessimistic Scenario: The price starts to decline in week 3, with a combined decline of $500 - $600/FEU in weeks 3, 4, and 5. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,580 - 1,650 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,650 - 1,750 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. 5. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, as its valuation has been significantly repaired, it is recommended to wait and see for now and make dynamic evaluations based on Maersk's opening price [15]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, it is recommended to short - sell based on the 2602 contract's valuation [15]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - Today's afternoon futures plunge might be due to the SCFIS index's increase falling short of expectations. However, the index may have included some ships delayed at the end of May, not fully reflecting price - increase factors and causing a lagging drag on the index. The spot market shows that shipping companies' online quotes for June are relatively stable, indicating that the price increase in June has been implemented well. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable运力 supply, and stabilized quotes and container volumes, the short - term price increase during the peak season is difficult to be falsified, and the price increase may be supported by fundamentals. If the price stabilizes in June, the central price of the far - month peak - season 08 contract should also rise, and its current position may be undervalued. For the traditional off - season in October, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market**: This afternoon's futures plunge might be related to the SCFIS index's increase not meeting expectations. The index may have a lag due to including delayed ships at the end of May. On the spot side, shipping companies' quotes for June are stable, with large container quotes ranging from $2760 - $3300. Some shipping companies have announced July prices with significant increases [8] - **Suggestions**: Given the strong European export demand, stable运力 supply, and stabilized quotes and container volumes, the short - term price increase during the peak season is hard to be falsified. If the June price stabilizes, the 08 contract may be undervalued, and for the 10 - month contract (traditional off - season), consider short - selling opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - **Shipping Market**: From June 9th to 13th, the China Export Container Shipping Market declined after continuous increases, with different routes showing different trends. In May, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year. On June 13th, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index dropped by 6.8%. In May, China's exports to the EU increased by 12% year - on - year. The North American market has seen a decline in spot booking prices due to increased运力 supply [9][10] - **Geopolitical News**: Iran and Israel have launched a new round of military strikes. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned Israel's actions. US President Trump hopes for an agreement between Iran and Israel and is open to Russian President Putin as a mediator [10] - **Trade Organization News**: At the WTO's Service Trade Council meeting, China's representative criticized the US's "reciprocal tariff" narrative and called on the US to abide by WTO rules [10] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index shows that on June 16, 2025, the European route index was 1697.63, up 4.6% from June 9th, and the US - West route index was 2908.68, up 33.1% [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market**: The table provides trading data for multiple contracts on June 12, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: There are charts showing global container运力, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]