每经AI快讯，2月24日，集运指数欧线主力合约日内涨超7%，现报1325点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "volatile", and the trading strategy is "bearish on rallies in the off - season", with a 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current trading in the container shipping index is sluggish, and there is limited driving force under low valuations. The spot freight rate is affected by the pre - holiday decline and the differentiation adjustment of each alliance, showing a downward trend. Political and economic factors are neutral. The supply of shipping capacity shows a certain change trend, and the demand is bearish in the short and long term. The container shipping index shows a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectations and reality" this week, with the futures and spot markets showing different performances. In the medium and long term, the risk of over - capacity needs to be vigilant [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: It is in a pre - holiday decline, with each alliance making differentiated adjustments. For example, in the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100/FEU, and further decreased to $1995/FEU in WK7; Hapag - Lloyd maintained at $2300 - 2500/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7. In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 dropped slightly to around $2500/FEU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to $2200 - 2300/FEU. In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between $2200 - 2400/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, affected by ONE's WK8 list price of $2000/FEU, the average price approached $2000/FEU, and some special prices for bulk cargo were $1800/FEU. MSC also slightly lowered its price following the market rhythm. Overall, affected by the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum period, the quotes of each alliance showed a downward trend [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They are neutral. The US and Iran are still sending mixed signals, and the market's probability of predicting military strikes has slightly decreased. The Wall Street Journal reported that the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near future is low, and the "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It shows different levels in different months. In November 2025, the weekly average shipping capacity was about 270,000 TEU; in December 2025, it was about 300,000 TEU; in January 2026, it was 313,000 - 321,000 TEU; in February 2026, it was 255,000 TEU; in March 2026, it was 280,000 TEU [3] - **Demand**: In the short term, approaching the Spring Festival, shippers have stocked up in advance, but there is no traditional pre - holiday small peak season. In the next two weeks (WK6 - WK7), the cargo volume will enter a pre - holiday vacuum period, and the pressure on shipping companies to attract cargo will increase. Only the rush - export of photovoltaic and other categories in the first quarter will provide a slight support for the cargo volume, mainly for pre - holiday replenishment. In the long term, in 2026, the demand in Europe and the US will be differentiated. European infrastructure and reconstruction may moderately boost the cargo volume, while the US inventory replenishment is delayed and has limited elasticity. Coupled with policy pressures such as the EU's anti - subsidy investigation, the global demand growth rate will slow down, and the growth rate of shipping capacity is higher than that of demand, resulting in an expanding supply - demand gap, and the demand side will continue to be under pressure to support freight rates [3] - **Summary**: This week, the EC shows a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectations and reality", with the futures and spot markets showing different performances. The futures market is supported by multiple expectations and has increased. The core logic lies in the rush - shipping expectation caused by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax refunds, which supports the contracts after April. Coupled with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the disturbance of extreme weather in Northwest Europe, it temporarily boosts the market sentiment. The spot market continues to be weak. The pre - holiday cargo volume enters a vacuum period, and shipping companies continue to reduce prices to attract cargo, resulting in an overall decline in freight rates. The SCFIS European line settlement index also decreased month - on - month. The weak supply - demand reality suppresses the near - month contracts. In the medium and long term, the risk of over - capacity needs to be vigilant. The concentrated delivery of new ships in 2026 and the resumption of the Red Sea route will release hidden shipping capacity and continuously suppress the freight rate center. The strategy should be cautious, not chasing high prices. Hedging should be held, and arbitrage positions can be gradually reduced. Key points to track include the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements, signals of the Red Sea route resumption, and cargo volume data, and control the operation rhythm and risks [3] 3.2 Price - The report provides line charts of multiple shipping route indexes, including the European line index, the US West line index, the US East line index, etc., but no specific analysis content is provided [6] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [11] - **Delivery Volume**: It shows the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 5999 TEU, 6000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [14] - **Demolition Volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 5999 TEU, 6000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [14][15] - **Future Delivery**: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities, including different loading capacity ranges such as 0 - 3000 TEU, 3000 - 6000 TEU, 6000 - 8000 TEU, 8000 - 12000 TEU, 12000 - 16999 TEU, >17000 TEU, etc., and also shows the quarterly seasonal chart of future delivery [20][22][23] - **Scrap Price**: It shows the scrap prices of container ships in different loading capacities, including different loading capacity ranges such as about 1000 TEU, about 1700 TEU, about 2000 TEU, etc., and also shows the new - building price index and second - hand price index of container ships [27][33] - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: It shows the existing shipping capacity of container ships in different loading capacities, including the total shipping capacity, the shipping capacity of different age groups, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of scrapped ships [42][45][49] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: It shows the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) on the Shanghai - European base port route from week 13 to week 28 [57][59][61] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It shows the situation of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [67][70][72] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: It shows the idle shipping capacity of container ships, including the total idle shipping capacity, the idle shipping capacity in different loading capacity ranges, the proportion of idle shipping capacity, and the hot - idle shipping capacity [75][76][77]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed a significant increase on January 26, with the European shipping index futures main contract opening at 1150.0 points and reaching a high of 1225.0 points, marking a rise of 5.63% [1] - The European shipping index is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with expectations of increased cargo pressure as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential decline in freight rates during the pre-holiday period [2] - The market is observing a divergence between spot price declines and future contract expectations, influenced by macroeconomic data and uncertainties related to trade protectionism [2] Group 2 - Current market conditions are in a downward phase for spot prices, with the April contract price nearing the previous off-season contract level, while the June contract valuation has risen to approximately $2000/FEU, exceeding this year's long-term contract price average [3] - The overall market is expected to shift towards a weak and volatile trend due to the lack of new positive drivers, with future contract performance largely dependent on the realization of demand-side "rush shipments" post-Spring Festival [3] - The performance of long-term contracts will primarily hinge on developments in the Middle East and the actual progress of shipping routes in the Red Sea [3]

2026 年 1 月 26 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市；04 空单逐步减仓观 望、10 空单酌情持有 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,717.7 | 0.61% | | 532 | 4,401 | -280 | 0.12 | | 0.16 | | | EC2604 | 1,138.3 | -0.10% | | 30,781 | 41,149 | 379 | 0.75 | | 0.48 | | | | 本期 | | | 2026/1/19 | | 单位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market has been in a weak and volatile state recently, with the market continuously debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is in the process of reaching its peak and then falling back. Although the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend. The 04 contract shows a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent Q1 rush shipment intensity. The spot settlement price remains high, mainly because most ships were delayed in January, and it is expected that the index will gradually decline in the future [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged, and attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. From a fundamental perspective, the cargo volume is gradually entering the range of reaching its peak and then falling back. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 ports in Northern Europe in January, February, and March is 303,100 TEU, 253,000 TEU, and 268,800 TEU respectively, with little overall change compared to last week. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates gradually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities from April 1st, a phased rush shipment is expected, but there are still differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is still suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the overall resumption of navigation in the European line is expected to be difficult in the first half of the year [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment. For arbitrage, it is advisable to enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,714.3, 1,132.2, 1,318.0, 1,459.0, 1,054.1, and 1,300.0 respectively, with changes of +3.8 (+0.22%), +11.2 (+1.00%), +6.8 (+0.52%), - 6.6 (-0.45%), - 1.0 (-0.09%), and +10.0 (+0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 1,999.0, 30,559.0, 2,329.0, 121.0, 1,410, and 40 respectively, with changes of - 17.84%, - 38.53%, - 43.70%, - 72.99%, - 34.42%, and - 38.46% respectively. The open interests were 6,439.0, 41,888.0, 4,200.0, 1,366.0, 8,186, and 122 respectively, with changes of - 15.03%, - 1.75%, +11.11%, - 1.37%, +3.12%, and +1.67% respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 582, with a change of - 7.4; the spread of EC04 - EC06 was - 186, with a change of +4.4 [3]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1,954.19, with a week - on - week change of - 0.11% and a year - on - year change of - 29.89%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1,305.27, with a week - on - week change of - 1.41% and a year - on - year change of - 46.68%. Different routes of the SCFI also showed various changes, such as the Shanghai - Europe route at 1,676 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week change of - 2.50% and a year - on - year change of - 41.21% [3]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 59.46 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.32% and a year - on - year change of - 23.68%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 63.44 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.36% and a year - on - year change of - 20.7% [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is at the peak - to - decline stage, and the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline but is difficult to reverse the trend. The 04 contract shows a discount. The spot settlement price is high because of ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged. The cargo volume is reaching its peak and then falling back. The supply of shipping capacity has little change. From a seasonal perspective, the off - season is from February to March, but the export tax rebate cancellation policy may lead to a phased rush shipment. There are differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the large - scale resumption of the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [6]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada will reduce tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a 6.1% most - favored - nation tariff rate, and the quota will increase annually [10]. - The US is preparing for an attack on Iran [11]. - US President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US from February 1st, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% from June 1st until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached. The EU will hold an emergency meeting, and some EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to the EU [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is a potentially strong and volatile trend. Consider reducing long positions in the 02 contract and short positions in the 04 contract as appropriate [1][4]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on products such as photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which will have a marginal positive impact on the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and a marginal negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - The weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In the past week, there were changes in shipping schedules such as Evergreen's CES route and PA Alliance's FE4 route [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 11 blank sailings, with the weekly average capacity revised down to 271,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. The March schedule includes 9 blank sailings and 2 undetermined sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 284,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5% [4]. - After the Chinese New Year in 2026, the capacity growth rate is much higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [5]. 3.2 Valuation - The FAK average for weeks 2 - 3 falls within the range of $2,700 - 2,760/FEU. Different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for different weeks [7][19]. - A neutral - to - pessimistic valuation scenario for the 2602 contract is presented, with the contract's valuation potentially falling in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 points. The 2604 contract cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April [8]. 3.3 Strategy - For the 2602 and 2604 contracts, consider reducing long and short positions respectively to avoid uncertainties. For the 2610 contract, maintain the strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, consider a 4 - 10 calendar spread to deal with the impact of the "rush - to - export" event [9]. 3.4 Demand Side - In January, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good, but the FAK segment was average. The peak cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines [6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which may support the shipping demand from January to March but have a negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3.5 Supply Side - The current weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week. The capacity in February and March has different changes, with the Spring Festival blank sailings mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March [4]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the capacity growth rate is significantly higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure [49]. - In the past three months, there have been new ship deliveries among the top ten shipping companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the next three months [77][80].

Group 1: Precious Metals Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Gold: After the pre - holiday capital quickly left the market and the price corrected, the future market may focus on the impact of US economic data such as non - farm payrolls on the Fed's policy and geopolitical disturbances. Hold gold long positions above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio [1]. - Silver: Long - position funds increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price to run strongly. The global inventory shortage may not be truly resolved, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After the "irrational" upward trend ends, pay attention to the possible callback caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. It is recommended to maintain a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by funds, their values are being reshaped due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and undervalued prices compared to gold. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, as market speculative sentiment weakens, it is recommended to buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average, and try to short the platinum - palladium ratio as palladium is relatively stronger [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: On January 8, 2026, the AU2602 contract closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, down 0.10% from the previous day; the AG2604 contract closed at 18,450 yuan/kg, down 4.35%; the PT2606 contract closed at 575.00 yuan/gram, down 3.93%; the PD2606 contract closed at 460.70 yuan/gram, down 3.20% [1]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at $4487.90 on January 8, up 0.47% from the previous day; the COMEX silver主力 contract closed at $76.69, down 1.65%; the NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at $2282.60, down 0.34%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at $1833.50, up 0.91% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at $4477.56 on January 8, up 0.48% from the previous day; London silver was at $76.97, down 1.66%; spot platinum was at $2267.45, down 1.33%; spot palladium was at $1780.26, up 1.40%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 995.86 yuan/gram, down 0.33%; silver T + D was at 18,338 yuan/kg, down 5.30%; platinum 9995 was at 580 yuan/gram, down 4.26% [1]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis was - 2.08, down 2.38 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 69.00%; the silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 basis was - 112, down 187 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 0.00% [1]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.52, up 2.16% from the previous day; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 54.09, up 4.45%; the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 1.24%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.25, down 0.75% [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 1.0% from the previous day; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.49%, up 0.6%; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, up 2.1%. The US dollar index was 98.86, up 0.12%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9823, down 0.16% [1]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653, unchanged from the previous day; silver inventory was 637,647 kg, up 15.22%. The COMEX gold inventory was 36,387,376, down 0.04%; silver inventory was 442,479,414, down 0.73%. The SPDR Gold ETF position was 1067, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF position was 16,215, up 0.72% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Basis**: On January 8, 2026, the TS basis was 1.3950, with a change of 0.0071 from the previous day; the TF basis was 1.4169, with a change of 0.0051; the T basis was 1.4579, with a change of 0.0267; the TL basis was 1.4116, with a change of 0.0279 [3]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For TS, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was - 0.0360, with a change of - 0.0060; for TF, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was 0.0000, with a change of - 0.0100; for T, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was 0.0950, with a change of 0.0400; for TL, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts was - 0.1500, with a change of 0.0200 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread between TS and TF was - 0.0740; between TS and T was - 5.4320; between TF and T was - 2.1900; between TS and TL was - 8.6420; between TF and TL was - 5.4000; between T and TL was - 3.2100 [3]. Group 3: Container Shipping Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) was 1312.71 points on October 27, up 15.11% from October 20; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.32 points, up 28.24%. The SCFI composite index was 1656.32 points on October 24, up 6.66% from October 17; the SCFI (European) was $1246/TEU, up 8.82%; the SCFI (US West) was $2153/FEU, up 11.21%; the SCFI (US East) was $3032, up 6.27% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: On January 8, 2026, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1706.0 points, down 4.11% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract was - 214.7, up 5.6 from the previous day, with a change of - 2.54% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply was 3369.52 million TEU on January 8, up 0.00% from the previous day. The port on - time rate in Shanghai in December was 40.00%, down 18.50% from November; the port call volume in Shanghai was 345.00, up 5.83%. The monthly export amount was $3303.51 billion, up 8.23%. The euro - zone composite PMI in December was 51.50, down 2.46% from November; the EU consumer confidence index was - 13.70, down 0.74%; the US manufacturing PMI was 47.90, down 0.62%. The G7 group's OECD composite leading indicator was 100.57 in December, up 0.06% from November [6]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. Core View No core view explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Summary by Related Catalog - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The IF spot - futures spread was - 19.25, up 4.41 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 51.20% and an all - time historical percentile of 24.70%; the IH spot - futures spread was 0.34, up 1.66, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 68.40% and an all - time historical percentile of 58.20%; the IC spot - futures spread was - 80.14, down 7.66, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 34.40% and an all - time historical percentile of 6.50%; the IM spot - futures spread was - 150.99, down 43.72, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 40.00% and an all - time historical percentile of 8.70% [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For IF, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 11.60, up 0.20; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 19.40, up 0.40. For IH, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 0.80, up 1.40; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was 0.80, up 1.40. For IC, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 40.20, down 2.00; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 75.00, down 8.00. For IM, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was - 73.60, down 5.40; the spread between the quarterly - month and current - month contracts was - 133.40, down 9.20 [9]. - **Inter - variety Ratio**: The ratio of CSI 500/CSI 300 was 1.6663, up 0.0177, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.50% and an all - time historical percentile of 75.30%; the ratio of CSI 500/SSE 50 was 2.5286, up 0.0247, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 99.50% and an all - time historical percentile of 79.60%; the ratio of CSI 300/SSE 50 was 1.5175, down 0.0013, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 69.60% and an all - time historical percentile of 87.70%; the ratio of CSI 1000/CSI 300 was 1.6826, up 0.0274, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 96.70% and an all - time historical percentile of 61.60% [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract of the shipping index (European route) has decreased by 9%, reaching 1705.0 points [1]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded 9.7% to 1742.64 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented, with full cabins in the second - last week of December and some voyages over - booked. The freight rate in early January is around 2880 dollars, with good cargo collection. There may be some upside potential for the February contract, but the expectation of Red Sea route resumption after the Spring Festival may rise, so pay attention to shorting opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index rose 9.7% to 1742.64 points this week. The January freight rate is around 2880 dollars with good cargo collection. There is an expectation of price increase in late January, and the February contract may have upside potential. However, pay attention to the shorting opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] 4. Industry News - From December 22 to 26, the China export container shipping market showed a positive trend, with the comprehensive index rising 6.7% to 1656.32 points on December 26. European routes: The European economy in 2025 was weak, with manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line and slow - down in service industry growth. The geopolitical and energy security risks are high. The spot market booking price rose during the signing season, with the Shanghai - to - Europe freight rate up 10.2% to 1690 dollars/TEU on December 26. Mediterranean routes: The market moved in tandem with European routes, with the freight rate up 10.9% to 3143 dollars/TEU on December 26. North American routes: The US job market showed a slight recovery, and the freight demand was good, with the Shanghai - to - West Coast and East Coast US freight rates up 9.8% and 6.6% to 2188 dollars/FEU and 3033 dollars/FEU respectively on December 26 [9][10] - Many shipping companies announced price increases. MSC raised rates on multiple routes from December 15, with the increase larger than at the beginning of the month, valid until December 31. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases on multiple routes. CMA CGM will impose a PSS of 250 dollars per TEU on Asian - to - Nordic routes from December 29 and adjust FAK rates from January 1, 2026 [10] - Israeli forces killed several Hamas members in Rafah. The armed militants in Rafah tunnels are still in direct contact with Hamas military leadership. The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation from early December, but Maersk later denied it [10] 5. Data Overview 5.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2025/12/29 | 2025/12/22 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1742.64 | 1589.2 | 153.44 | 9.7% | | SCFIS: US West Coast Routes (Basic Ports) | 1301.41 | 962.1 | 339.31 | 35.3% | [12] 5.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1833.3 | 1835.0 | 1795.1 | 1792.0 | - 38.2 | - 2.08 | 24777 | 27855 | - 2582 | | EC2604 | 1164.6 | 1171.0 | 1160.2 | 1165.3 | - 4.4 | - 0.38 | 7238 | 21241 | 44 | | EC2606 | 1350.2 | 1385.0 | 1370.0 | 1370.1 | 19.8 | 1.47 | 856 | 2230 | - 129 | | EC2608 | 1498.2 | 1506.0 | 1500.1 | 1499.3 | 1.9 | 0.13 | 86 | 1196 | - 10 | | EC2610 | 1052.9 | 1057.0 | 1056.0 | 1056.4 | 3.1 | 0.29 | 643 | 6084 | 72 | | EC2612 | 1052.9 | 1300.1 | 1308.0 | 1285.3 | 255.1 | 24.23 | 96 | 56 | 56 | [6] 5.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Figures include the trend of container shipping European routes futures main and secondary main contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [18][19][21]

Report Information - Report Title: "Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index has further rebounded by 9.7% to 1742.64 points this week, and the price increase in mid - to late December has been well implemented. The freight rate in early January remains at a median level of around $2880, with good cargo - booking status. There is still an upward space for the February contract, but the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation after the Spring Festival may heat up, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index has increased by 9.7% to 1742.64 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well implemented, with full cabins and some voyages over - booked in the second - last week of December. The freight rate in early January is around $2880, with good cargo - booking. There is an upward space for the February contract, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the 02 - 04 positive spread trading opportunity [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Market Conditions**: From December 22 to 26, the China export container shipping market showed a positive trend, with the overall freight rate of long - haul routes rising and the composite index increasing. On December 26, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1656.32 points, up 6.7% from the previous period [9] - **European Routes**: In 2025, the European economy was weak, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line and the service industry growth slowing. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports on December 26 was $1690/TEU, up 10.2% from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market conditions were in sync with European routes, and the freight rate continued to rise. On December 26, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $3143/TEU, up 10.9% from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending December 20 decreased to 214,000, indicating a slight recovery in the employment market. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on December 26 was $2188/FEU and $3033/FEU respectively, up 9.8% and 6.6% from the previous period [9][10] - **Shipping Companies' Price Adjustments**: Many shipping companies such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd have announced price increases or surcharge adjustments for multiple international routes [10] - **Regional Situations**: Israeli forces have killed many Hamas members in Rafah, and armed militants in Rafah tunnels are still in direct contact with the Hamas military leadership. Maersk's statement on resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation is inconsistent [10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - **SCFIS**: The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on December 29 was 1742.64, up 9.7% from December 22. The SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1301.41, up 35.3% from December 22 [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market** - **Contract Data**: Data such as the opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume of different contracts (EC2512, EC2602, etc.) on December 29 are provided [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - **Charts**: There are charts showing the trends of the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping index (European line) futures contracts, and shipping - related data [13][17][19]