Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the main contract of the shipping index (European line) opening at 1101.6 points and reaching a high of 1159.8 points, reflecting a 4.94% increase [1] - The shipping index (European line) is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend, with institutions providing various outlooks on its future performance [1] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.5, falling below expectations and indicating ongoing pressure in the manufacturing sector, particularly in Germany and France [1] Group 2 - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel has commenced its journey from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the UK’s largest container port, marking the launch of the world's first fast shipping route between China and Europe, which is expected to enhance international logistics for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [1] - Shipping companies are continuing to lower prices to attract cargo, with Mediterranean Shipping reducing rates to $890/TEU and $1490/FEU, while Hapag-Lloyd has adjusted some voyages to $935/TEU and $1435/FEU [1] - Current market sentiment remains weak, with ongoing pressure on spot prices and limited cargo volume ahead of the holiday season, leading to potential further price reductions if shipping companies do not implement effective capacity reduction measures [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to enter a high-level oscillation phase, waiting for a direction decision. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. - The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season, and it is recommended to refer to the price range. For other non-ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to their respective fundamentals [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions [2]. - For special commodities, trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - In the new energy sector, it is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is expected to enter high-level oscillation. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. It is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. Commodity Sector - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, it is recommended to go long at low prices in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to a sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, coking coal futures are expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Coke is also recommended to go long at low prices as the coking profit continues to repair [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season. Different trading strategies are given for other non-ferrous metals according to their fundamentals [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - **New Energy**: It is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as it is a off - season contract, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The risk for the December contract lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [6][7][9] - The supply of container ship capacity is affected by factors such as ship delivery and empty - sail filling. The freight rate is influenced by supply and demand, economic conditions, and shipping company strategies. [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 80,906.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 49,119.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1496.90, 1284.00, 1445.70, 2136.00, 1358.00, and 1696.70 respectively. [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210; HPL's quotes for the first half and second half of September were 1435/2235. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes for the second half of August and September were 1510/2620 and 1410/2420 respectively. [1][3] - The final delivery settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the freight rate center continues to decline. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. [5][6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU, and the capacity in week 35 was 30.84 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 36/37/38/39 were 326,500/276,000/314,500/325,500 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in October was 282,300 TEU. [4] - In September, the two empty sailings of the PA alliance were filled. In week 38, the FE4 route was filled by HMM AQUAMARINE (13,788 TEU), and in week 37, the FE3 route was filled by HMM ALGECIRAS (23,964 TEU). HPL announced information about two additional ships in October. [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 176,880 TEU. [9] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the fourth quarter, Western holidays are concentrated, and shipping companies usually adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level. However, if ships from the US route are transferred to the European route, it may put pressure on European route prices. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry (European route) is rated as "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the tariff exemption period may not reproduce the first - round market for the US route, and the transmission effect of the second - round exemption on the European route will be significantly weakened. The European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - round 90 - day tariff exemption period US route market review - From April to May 2025, due to the change of US tariff policy, the US route market experienced three typical stages: short - term pulse - type rebound period, high - level shock adjustment period, and supply - demand weakening downward period. The overall market trend was weaker than the initial optimistic expectations [8][9] 2. Tariff exemption period extension, US route may not reproduce the first - round market - The freight rate upward cycle driven by the first - round tariff exemption policy was short - lived, with a particularly short high - level platform period. Constrained by high inventory and the approaching off - season, the second - round 90 - day tariff exemption window will have a significantly weakened marginal stimulation effect on new demand. On August 12, the tariff exemption was extended for 90 days, but the US route is difficult to reproduce the first - round market [15][16][20] 3. Second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route is weakened - Before the tariff exemption, the European route market faced supply - demand surplus and seasonal off - season pressure. During the first - round exemption, the European route freight rate was strongly supported. However, due to the US route's difficulty in reproducing the first - round market and the shipping companies' conservative deployment strategy, the second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route will be significantly weakened [28] 4. European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution - In August, the European route freight rate declined from the top due to increased supply and weakened demand. In the traditional off - season from September to October, the downward trend is established. Short - term bearish thinking is maintained, and the strategy of shorting October is recommended. If there is an unexpected suspension of voyages, the trading logic may switch, and opportunities such as going long on December or 10 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [3][32][33]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the shipping index (European route) has seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 2% to reach 1432.5 points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European route) futures opened with a significant decline and then continued to fluctuate downward. By the close, the prices of EC monthly contracts showed mixed trends. The reduction in the spot cabin quotes of Maersk and ONE lowered the valuation of the current near - month contract futures prices, leading to a decline in futures prices. However, the potential for relatively low tariffs between the US and Europe and the expected recovery of trade have a certain positive impact on the far - month futures prices. The futures prices still have bottom support, and the SCFI European route has slightly rebounded. Near - month contracts are more likely to experience a short - term correction, but the overall trend may still be slightly downward with fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Cabin Management**: For those who have already obtained cabins but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling range of 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one wants to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. Market Data Analysis Position and Trading Volume Changes - For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 559 lots to 25,266 lots, short positions decreased by 236 lots to 31,305 lots, and trading volume decreased by 19,270 lots to 50,437 lots (bilateral) [1]. Basis Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 187.90 | 32.30 | 53.30 | | EC2510 | 873.00 | 56.40 | 85.50 | | EC2512 | 680.30 | 59.70 | 70.80 | | EC2602 | 881.70 | 43.50 | - 23.70 | | EC2604 | 1038.80 | 20.30 | - 32.30 | | EC2606 | 882.5 | - 11.10 | - 96.14 | [4][5] Futures Price and Spread Changes | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2212.6 | - 1.44% | - 2.35% | EC2508 - 2512 | 492.4 | 27.4 | 17.5 | | EC2510 | 1527.5 | - 3.56% | - 5.30% | EC2512 - 2604 | 358.5 | - 39.4 | - 119.7 | | EC2512 | 1720.2 | - 3.35% | - 3.95% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 850.9 | 12.0 | 21.3 | | EC2602 | 1518.8 | - 2.78% | 1.59% | EC2508 - 2510 | 685.1 | 27.4 | 32.2 | | EC2604 | 1361.7 | 0.15% | 2.43% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 192.7 | 3.3 | - 14.7 | | EC2606 | 1518.0 | 0.74% | 5.18% | EC2512 - 2602 | 201.4 | - 16.2 | - 94.2 | [5] Market News and Quotes Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 7, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $7 to $1822, and the total quote for 40GP increased by $14 to $3064 compared to the previous period. For ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam in mid - to - early August, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $493 to $2321, and the total quote for 40GP decreased by $500 to $3143 compared to the previous period [7]. Global Freight Rate Indexes | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2400.5 | 2421.94 | - 21.44 | - 0.89% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1301.81 | 1266.59 | 35.22 | 2.78% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 2090 | 2079 | 11 | 0.53% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2067 | 2142 | - 75 | - 3.50% | | XSI: European Route ($/FEU) | 3406 | 3407 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | XSI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2216 | 2248 | - 32 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2366 | 2348 | 18 | 0.77% | [8] Port - Related Data Global Main Port Waiting Times | Port | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 1.080 | 1.312 | - 0.232 | 0.455 | | Shanghai Port | 1.169 | 1.212 | - 0.043 | 1.423 | | Yantian Port | 1.253 | 0.868 | 0.385 | 0.565 | | Singapore Port | 0.556 | 0.513 | 0.043 | 0.554 | | Jakarta Port | 10.642 | 2.050 | 8.592 | 1.759 | | Long Beach Port | 1.909 | 1.927 | - 0.018 | 2.572 | | Savannah Port | 1.535 | 1.431 | 0.104 | 1.449 | [15] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity in Suez Canal | Ship Type | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.794 | 15.843 | - 0.049 | 15.904 | | 3000+ | 14.861 | 15.037 | - 0.176 | 14.73 | | 1000+ | 13.134 | 13.269 | - 0.135 | 13.232 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 13 | 18 | - 5 | 11 | [23]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1548.0 points, down 6.10%, with an increase of 549 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1708.7 points, down 5.44%, with an increase of 419 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2249.7 points, down 42.2 points, with a decrease of 1644 lots [8]. - In terms of spot freight rates, there are signs of a price peak in early August, with the average large - container price at around $3400/FEU. Attention should be paid to how other shipping companies respond after Maersk's price cut [9]. - Fundamentally, benefiting from strong FOB cargo volume, the loading situation of shipping companies at the end of July was optimistic, and the cargo volume in early August still has support. Looking at the monthly level, August is likely to be a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear. - For the 2508 contract, the final delivery settlement price is expected to be around 2250 points, with limited unilateral trading value. For the 2510 contract, October is the traditional off - season for European routes. Shipping companies need to actively suspend voyages to ease the decline of freight rates. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of shorting at high levels, and hold short positions in 10, 10 - 12 reverse spreads, and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: EC2508 closed at 2,249.7, down 2.20%, with a trading volume of 7,001 and an open interest of 12,393, a decrease of 1,644; EC2510 closed at 1,548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,658 and an open interest of 51,734, an increase of 549; EC2512 closed at 1,708.7, down 5.44%, with a trading volume of 7,398 and an open interest of 8,533, an increase of 419 [1]. 2. Freight Index Data - **SCFIS**: The European route was at 2,400.50 points, down 0.9%; the US - West route was at 1,301.81 points, up 2.8%. - **SCFI**: The European route was at $2,079/TEU, down 1.0%; the US - West route was at $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% [1]. 3. Spot Freight Data - **Gemini Alliance**: Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price in week 32 was reported at $2900/FEU, and the booking price after opening increased to $2950/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's FAK in late July was around $3300/FEU and around $3500/FEU in early August. - **OA Alliance**: In early August, COSCO and OOCL's freight rates remained the same, with FAK reported at $3600 and $3500/FEU respectively; Evergreen's online e - commerce platform reported $3760/FEU in August, up $100 - 200/FEU compared to early July. - **PA Alliance**: Yang Ming plans to increase the price by $200 to $3300/EFU in early August, and ONE's offline price remained at $3300/FEU, with the online e - commerce platform increasing by $300/FEU. - **MSC**: The FAK in early August increased by $200 to $3640/FEU, the same as in early July [9]. 4. Shipping Capacity and Schedule Data - Shipping capacity data for China - Europe routes from January to December 2024 and 2025 are presented in the form of weekly and monthly average weekly shipping capacity charts, and the shipping schedules from July to September 2025 are also provided [5][6]. 5. Macroeconomic News - The cease - fire negotiation in Gaza has made significant progress. - The US will mediate the talks between Israel and Syria on Thursday to avoid a new crisis. - Israel's Defense Minister Katz said it is possible to launch an offensive against Iran again. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with the Philippines, with a 19% tariff imposed on the Philippines. - Trump said the US has reached a large - scale agreement with Japan, with Japan investing $550 billion in the US, and the US getting 90% of the profits. Japan will open its trade and pay a 15% reciprocal tariff [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping index (European route) experienced a narrowing daily increase of 3.00%, currently reported at 1623.5 points, after previously rising over 9% [1] Group 1 - The main contract of the container shipping index showed significant volatility, with an initial increase exceeding 9% before stabilizing [1]