航运日报 | 2025-08-26 9月份PA联盟两个空班被填补，关注马士基9月第二周报价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹36周价格1315/2210；HPL 9月上半月船期报价1435/2235，9月下半月价 格1435/2235。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 8月下半月船期报价1550/2590，9月上半月船期报价1556/2602；ONE9月上半月船期 报价1804/2343；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月上半月船期报价2200美元/FEU; YML9月上半月报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹8月下半月船期报价1510/2620，9月份船期报价1410/2420；EMC 8月下半月船 期报价介于2660-2760美元/FEU，9月份船期价格1605/2410；OOCL 9月上半月船期价格2200-2300美元/FEU。 地缘端：以色列总理内塔尼亚胡：以色列对今天发生在加沙纳赛尔医院的这起悲剧性事故深感遗憾。 特朗普：与 内塔尼亚胡打交道相当棘手。预计未来 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry (European route) is rated as "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the tariff exemption period may not reproduce the first - round market for the US route, and the transmission effect of the second - round exemption on the European route will be significantly weakened. The European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - round 90 - day tariff exemption period US route market review - From April to May 2025, due to the change of US tariff policy, the US route market experienced three typical stages: short - term pulse - type rebound period, high - level shock adjustment period, and supply - demand weakening downward period. The overall market trend was weaker than the initial optimistic expectations [8][9] 2. Tariff exemption period extension, US route may not reproduce the first - round market - The freight rate upward cycle driven by the first - round tariff exemption policy was short - lived, with a particularly short high - level platform period. Constrained by high inventory and the approaching off - season, the second - round 90 - day tariff exemption window will have a significantly weakened marginal stimulation effect on new demand. On August 12, the tariff exemption was extended for 90 days, but the US route is difficult to reproduce the first - round market [15][16][20] 3. Second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route is weakened - Before the tariff exemption, the European route market faced supply - demand surplus and seasonal off - season pressure. During the first - round exemption, the European route freight rate was strongly supported. However, due to the US route's difficulty in reproducing the first - round market and the shipping companies' conservative deployment strategy, the second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route will be significantly weakened [28] 4. European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution - In August, the European route freight rate declined from the top due to increased supply and weakened demand. In the traditional off - season from September to October, the downward trend is established. Short - term bearish thinking is maintained, and the strategy of shorting October is recommended. If there is an unexpected suspension of voyages, the trading logic may switch, and opportunities such as going long on December or 10 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [3][32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European route) futures opened with a significant decline and then continued to fluctuate downward. By the close, the prices of EC monthly contracts showed mixed trends. The reduction in the spot cabin quotes of Maersk and ONE lowered the valuation of the current near - month contract futures prices, leading to a decline in futures prices. However, the potential for relatively low tariffs between the US and Europe and the expected recovery of trade have a certain positive impact on the far - month futures prices. The futures prices still have bottom support, and the SCFI European route has slightly rebounded. Near - month contracts are more likely to experience a short - term correction, but the overall trend may still be slightly downward with fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Cabin Management**: For those who have already obtained cabins but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling range of 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one wants to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. Market Data Analysis Position and Trading Volume Changes - For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 559 lots to 25,266 lots, short positions decreased by 236 lots to 31,305 lots, and trading volume decreased by 19,270 lots to 50,437 lots (bilateral) [1]. Basis Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 187.90 | 32.30 | 53.30 | | EC2510 | 873.00 | 56.40 | 85.50 | | EC2512 | 680.30 | 59.70 | 70.80 | | EC2602 | 881.70 | 43.50 | - 23.70 | | EC2604 | 1038.80 | 20.30 | - 32.30 | | EC2606 | 882.5 | - 11.10 | - 96.14 | [4][5] Futures Price and Spread Changes | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2212.6 | - 1.44% | - 2.35% | EC2508 - 2512 | 492.4 | 27.4 | 17.5 | | EC2510 | 1527.5 | - 3.56% | - 5.30% | EC2512 - 2604 | 358.5 | - 39.4 | - 119.7 | | EC2512 | 1720.2 | - 3.35% | - 3.95% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 850.9 | 12.0 | 21.3 | | EC2602 | 1518.8 | - 2.78% | 1.59% | EC2508 - 2510 | 685.1 | 27.4 | 32.2 | | EC2604 | 1361.7 | 0.15% | 2.43% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 192.7 | 3.3 | - 14.7 | | EC2606 | 1518.0 | 0.74% | 5.18% | EC2512 - 2602 | 201.4 | - 16.2 | - 94.2 | [5] Market News and Quotes Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 7, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $7 to $1822, and the total quote for 40GP increased by $14 to $3064 compared to the previous period. For ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam in mid - to - early August, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $493 to $2321, and the total quote for 40GP decreased by $500 to $3143 compared to the previous period [7]. Global Freight Rate Indexes | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2400.5 | 2421.94 | - 21.44 | - 0.89% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1301.81 | 1266.59 | 35.22 | 2.78% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 2090 | 2079 | 11 | 0.53% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2067 | 2142 | - 75 | - 3.50% | | XSI: European Route ($/FEU) | 3406 | 3407 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | XSI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2216 | 2248 | - 32 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2366 | 2348 | 18 | 0.77% | [8] Port - Related Data Global Main Port Waiting Times | Port | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 1.080 | 1.312 | - 0.232 | 0.455 | | Shanghai Port | 1.169 | 1.212 | - 0.043 | 1.423 | | Yantian Port | 1.253 | 0.868 | 0.385 | 0.565 | | Singapore Port | 0.556 | 0.513 | 0.043 | 0.554 | | Jakarta Port | 10.642 | 2.050 | 8.592 | 1.759 | | Long Beach Port | 1.909 | 1.927 | - 0.018 | 2.572 | | Savannah Port | 1.535 | 1.431 | 0.104 | 1.449 | [15] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity in Suez Canal | Ship Type | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.794 | 15.843 | - 0.049 | 15.904 | | 3000+ | 14.861 | 15.037 | - 0.176 | 14.73 | | 1000+ | 13.134 | 13.269 | - 0.135 | 13.232 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 13 | 18 | - 5 | 11 | [23]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1548.0 points, down 6.10%, with an increase of 549 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1708.7 points, down 5.44%, with an increase of 419 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2249.7 points, down 42.2 points, with a decrease of 1644 lots [8]. - In terms of spot freight rates, there are signs of a price peak in early August, with the average large - container price at around $3400/FEU. Attention should be paid to how other shipping companies respond after Maersk's price cut [9]. - Fundamentally, benefiting from strong FOB cargo volume, the loading situation of shipping companies at the end of July was optimistic, and the cargo volume in early August still has support. Looking at the monthly level, August is likely to be a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear. - For the 2508 contract, the final delivery settlement price is expected to be around 2250 points, with limited unilateral trading value. For the 2510 contract, October is the traditional off - season for European routes. Shipping companies need to actively suspend voyages to ease the decline of freight rates. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of shorting at high levels, and hold short positions in 10, 10 - 12 reverse spreads, and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: EC2508 closed at 2,249.7, down 2.20%, with a trading volume of 7,001 and an open interest of 12,393, a decrease of 1,644; EC2510 closed at 1,548.0, down 6.10%, with a trading volume of 66,658 and an open interest of 51,734, an increase of 549; EC2512 closed at 1,708.7, down 5.44%, with a trading volume of 7,398 and an open interest of 8,533, an increase of 419 [1]. 2. Freight Index Data - **SCFIS**: The European route was at 2,400.50 points, down 0.9%; the US - West route was at 1,301.81 points, up 2.8%. - **SCFI**: The European route was at $2,079/TEU, down 1.0%; the US - West route was at $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% [1]. 3. Spot Freight Data - **Gemini Alliance**: Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price in week 32 was reported at $2900/FEU, and the booking price after opening increased to $2950/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's FAK in late July was around $3300/FEU and around $3500/FEU in early August. - **OA Alliance**: In early August, COSCO and OOCL's freight rates remained the same, with FAK reported at $3600 and $3500/FEU respectively; Evergreen's online e - commerce platform reported $3760/FEU in August, up $100 - 200/FEU compared to early July. - **PA Alliance**: Yang Ming plans to increase the price by $200 to $3300/EFU in early August, and ONE's offline price remained at $3300/FEU, with the online e - commerce platform increasing by $300/FEU. - **MSC**: The FAK in early August increased by $200 to $3640/FEU, the same as in early July [9]. 4. Shipping Capacity and Schedule Data - Shipping capacity data for China - Europe routes from January to December 2024 and 2025 are presented in the form of weekly and monthly average weekly shipping capacity charts, and the shipping schedules from July to September 2025 are also provided [5][6]. 5. Macroeconomic News - The cease - fire negotiation in Gaza has made significant progress. - The US will mediate the talks between Israel and Syria on Thursday to avoid a new crisis. - Israel's Defense Minister Katz said it is possible to launch an offensive against Iran again. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with the Philippines, with a 19% tariff imposed on the Philippines. - Trump said the US has reached a large - scale agreement with Japan, with Japan investing $550 billion in the US, and the US getting 90% of the profits. Japan will open its trade and pay a 15% reciprocal tariff [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping index (European route) experienced a narrowing daily increase of 3.00%, currently reported at 1623.5 points, after previously rising over 9% [1] Group 1 - The main contract of the container shipping index showed significant volatility, with an initial increase exceeding 9% before stabilizing [1]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index further rebounded above 2,200 points. The peak - season price increase expectation has started to recover, and with good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the price increase in the peak season is expected to materialize. The 08 contract still has some upward space, while the 10 - month is a traditional off - season, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low levels [8]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2,200 points. Most airlines maintained stable quotes in July, with the median of the second - half - of - July quotes around $3,660. There are few airlines that have quoted for August. The peak - season price increase expectation has recovered, and the 08 contract has upward potential, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities [8]. 4.2 Industry News - Market Conditions (June 30 - July 4): The China Export Container Shipping Market remained stable, with the comprehensive index adjusting. The manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The non - manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The Shanghai - to - Europe basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,101/TEU, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US manufacturing PMI in June was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The Shanghai - to - US West and East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2,089/FEU and $4,124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: Houthi attacks on Israel, US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and relevant responses from China and the international community [10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 7, 2025 | June 30, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai - Europe (Basic Ports) | 2,258.04 | 2,123.24 | 134.8 | 6.3 | | Shanghai - US West (Basic Ports) | 1,557.77 | 1,619.19 | - 61.42 | - 3.8 | [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data of multiple contracts on July 8 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The main contract of the container shipping index (European route) has increased by 8.00%, currently reported at 2022.5 points [1] Group 1 - The significant rise in the container shipping index indicates a potential recovery or increased demand in the shipping industry [1] - The 8.00% increase reflects a notable change in market conditions, which could impact shipping rates and logistics operations [1] - The current level of 2022.5 points suggests a strong performance compared to previous periods, warranting further analysis of underlying factors driving this growth [1]

Pricing Information - As of June 25, the spot rates for Maersk are between $1,767 and $1,777 per TEU, and $2,950 to $2,976 per TEU; CMA rates range from $2,035 to $2,385 per TEU, and $3,645 to $4,345 per TEU; MSC rates are $1,940 to $2,180 per TEU, and $3,640 per TEU; ONE rates are between $2,604 and $3,094 per TEU, and $3,343 to $4,043 per TEU; EMC rates range from $2,100 to $2,655 per TEU, and $3,100 to $4,060 per TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of June 23, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 1,937.14 points, a 14% increase week-on-week, while the West Coast of the US index decreased by 28% to 2,083.46 points; as of June 27, the SCFI composite index is at 1,861.51 points, down 0.4% from the previous period; Shanghai to Europe freight rates increased by 10% to $2,030 per TEU; Shanghai to West Coast freight rates are $2,578 per FEU, down 7% from the previous week; Shanghai to East Coast freight rates are $4,717 per FEU, down 12% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of June 24, the global container shipping capacity stands at 32.57 million TEU, an 8.2% increase year-on-year; in terms of demand, the Eurozone's May composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 49.7; the US May manufacturing PMI is at 48.5, with the new orders index at 47.6; the OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.32 in May [3] Market Logic - The futures market saw a decline yesterday, with the main August contract closing at 1,761 points, down 2.42%; currently, there is a reduction in the price divergence for July, with large box quotes ranging from $3,635 to $4,645 per TEU, which is slightly higher than the first half of the year; a significant price drop in August is considered unlikely, and airlines may initially set higher August quotes before adjusting based on actual transaction conditions, necessitating close monitoring of price trends [4] Operational Recommendations - The market is advised to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach, with expectations for the main index to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 points [5]

Pricing Information - As of June 25, the spot rates for Maersk range from $1,754 to $2,183 per TEU and $2,930 to $3,546 per TEU; CMA rates are $1,835 to $2,035 per TEU and $3,245 to $3,645 per TEU; MSC rates are $1,940 to $2,180 per TEU and $3,240 to $3,640 per TEU; ONE rates are $2,571 to $2,914 per TEU and $2,937 to $3,343 per TEU; EMC rates are $2,100 to $2,655 per TEU and $3,100 to $4,060 per TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of June 23, the SCFIS European line index reported 1,937.14 points, an increase of 14% week-on-week; the US West Coast index decreased by 28% to 2,083.46 points. The SCFI composite index as of June 20 was 1,968.59 points, down 10% from the previous period; Shanghai-Europe freight rates fell by 1% to $1,835 per TEU; Shanghai-US West Coast rates were $2,772 per FEU, down 33% from the previous week; Shanghai-US East Coast rates were $5,352 per FEU, down 21% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of June 24, the global container shipping capacity was 32.57 million TEU, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's May composite PMI was 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 49.7; the US May manufacturing PMI was 48.5, with new orders index at 47.6. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.32 in May [3] Market Logic - The futures market saw a decline yesterday, with the main contract for August closing at 1,759.9 points, an increase of 1.13%. It is expected that more airlines will announce their pricing for the second half of July soon, with a high probability of opening flat. If there is no significant drop, the August price may remain in the 1,700-1,800 fluctuation range [4] Operational Suggestions - The industry is advised to maintain a cautious observation stance, with expectations for the August contract to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 [5]